Last Update 14 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 3.01%

CORZ: Standalone AI Power Pipeline Will Drive Future Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Core Scientific by about $0.83 per share to $26.82, reflecting a slightly higher discount rate even as they highlight improved standalone prospects, reduced deal overhang, and stronger AI infrastructure optionality as key supports for the updated price target.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a largely constructive shift in sentiment on Core Scientific, with multiple firms raising ratings and price targets as the market pivots to a standalone, AI and high performance compute oriented narrative following the termination of the CoreWeave merger.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight that the decision to terminate the CoreWeave transaction, after shareholders voted it down, removes a major deal overhang and is viewed as a clear positive that can unlock standalone value in the shares.
Several price target increases, to a range in the mid to high twenties and one upgrade that embeds a $34 objective, underscore greater confidence in execution on a standalone strategy and a more favorable risk or reward profile.
Updated models increasingly assume that Core Scientific will monetize its substantial power pipeline through high performance compute and AI infrastructure, which is seen as a structurally higher growth, higher multiple opportunity than pure Bitcoin mining.
Sector work suggesting that control of power is the key strategic asset in AI data centers supports the view that companies with large power portfolios and existing colocation footprints, including Core Scientific, should command higher valuations over time.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts and more cautious investors still point to execution risk around the pivot to high performance compute, noting that scaling AI or HPC colocation and data center offerings will require significant capital, operational discipline, and long term contracting.
Despite upgrades, the spread between current trading levels and the most optimistic targets implies the market is not fully convinced that Core Scientific can consistently capture AI infrastructure demand at attractive returns, leaving room for disappointment if ramp timelines slip.
Some research continues to categorize Core Scientific as Neutral within the broader digital infrastructure peer group. This reflects concerns that competition for power rich sites and hyperscaler relationships could compress margins and limit upside versus better positioned peers.
The collapse of the CoreWeave deal, while viewed positively by bullish analysts, also removes a clear takeout valuation marker. This increases the sensitivity of the stock to macro conditions, Bitcoin price volatility, and execution on the standalone growth plan.

What's in the News

CoreWeave cancelled its $6.8B all stock acquisition of Core Scientific after shareholders voted down the deal at a special meeting on October 30, 2025. This leaves Core Scientific to pursue a standalone strategy while remaining Nasdaq listed under ticker CORZ (Key Developments).
At the same October 30, 2025 special meeting, Core Scientific stockholders failed to approve the previously announced merger agreement with CoreWeave, which triggered termination of the merger under the agreement’s terms (Key Developments).
CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator told CNBC that delays at a third party data center developer, identified on air as Core Scientific, contributed to CoreWeave missing full year guidance. Shares of both companies traded sharply lower following the remarks (Periodicals).
Proxy advisory firms ISS and Glass Lewis each recommended that Core Scientific shareholders vote against CoreWeave’s takeover bid. CoreWeave later stated it would not raise its approximately $9B offer, which reinforced investor resistance to the transaction (Periodicals).
A lawsuit filed in Texas names Core Scientific among several defendants over a catastrophic transformer explosion at a Denton worksite. The suit alleges negligence and seeks more than $1M in damages for severe burn injuries to a worker (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate was reduced modestly from $27.65 to $26.82 per share, reflecting a slightly more conservative intrinsic valuation.
The Discount Rate increased slightly from 9.04% to 9.09%, indicating a marginally higher required return and risk perception.
Revenue Growth remains effectively unchanged at approximately 62.33%, signaling no material shift in top line growth expectations.
The Net Profit Margin is effectively flat at about 27.56%, suggesting stable long term profitability assumptions.
The Future P or E edged down from 33.0x to 32.1x, implying a modestly lower valuation multiple on forward earnings.

Reallocating resources from Bitcoin mining to HPC infrastructure could drive future growth amid rising data center demands and diversified clientele.
Debt restructuring and 0% interest funding improve growth potential and operational efficiencies through strategic hires, enhancing financial stability and earnings.
Dependency on CoreWeave, shift in strategy, restructuring uncertainties, and execution delays pose risks to growth and profitability.

Catalysts

About Core Scientific

Provides digital asset mining services in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Core Scientific secured a major HPC contract with CoreWeave, with a total revenue potential of $8.7 billion over a 12-year term, significantly boosting future revenue compared to their current levels.
The company is expanding HPC infrastructure capacity by reallocating resources from Bitcoin mining, adding new sites, and extending existing ones, expecting to drive future revenue growth as data center needs rise.
Core Scientific’s ability to diversify its customer base and reduce reliance on CoreWeave as a primary client could improve margins and provide more stable revenue streams in the long term.
The improved balance sheet following significant debt restructuring and raising $625 million through a convertible note offering at 0% interest rates positions the company to effectively fund future growth initiatives with lower interest costs, improving net margins.
Strategic hires of data center professionals enhance execution capabilities, likely leading to increased operational efficiencies, positively impacting earnings as the company grows its data center business.

Core Scientific Earnings and Revenue Growth

Core Scientific Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Core Scientific's revenue will grow by 60.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -170.8% today to 23.0% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $334.4 million (and earnings per share of $0.83) by about September 2028, up from $-595.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $432.4 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $23 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 27.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -7.0x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.21%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Core Scientific Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The shift from Bitcoin mining to HPC hosting and the resulting decline in digital asset hosted mining revenue, which was down significantly from $30 million to $6.5 million, could adversely impact overall revenue if the new strategy doesn't ramp up as expected.
The company faced a net loss of $265 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, an increase from the previous year's loss, raising concerns about its ability to reach profitability and improve net margins in the near term.
The dependency on a singular client, CoreWeave, for a significant portion of projected revenue introduces concentration risk. If CoreWeave's demand or business model shifts unfavorably, it could dramatically decrease Core Scientific's forecasted earnings.
With the recent Chapter 11 debt restructuring, there remains uncertainty about the company’s long-term financial health and its reliance on future capital expenditures, which could put strain on cash flow and negate earnings improvements.
The delayed rollout of planned HPC capacity expansions due to permitting and equipment issues could slow revenue growth and heighten execution risk, potentially impacting future earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $19.045 for Core Scientific based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $23.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $15.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.5 billion, earnings will come to $334.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 27.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.2%.
Given the current share price of $13.58, the analyst price target of $19.05 is 28.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

CORZ: Power Portfolio And AI Demand Will Unlock Substantial Upside