Last Update 15 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 0.088%

DASH: Global Grocery Expansion And Deliveroo Integration Will Drive Shares Higher

We are nudging our DoorDash analyst price target slightly higher to approximately $276 per share, as analysts argue that resilient U.S. marketplace growth, strengthening grocery and retail momentum, and underappreciated returns on stepped-up tech and Deliveroo investments more than offset modestly higher risk and near-term margin pressure.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a broadly constructive stance on DoorDash, with most firms emphasizing enduring growth in the core U.S. restaurant marketplace, improving traction in grocery and retail, and a longer runway from the Deliveroo integration, even as near term profitability comes under pressure.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight accelerating U.S. gross order value growth and resilient restaurant demand as evidence that DoorDash can sustain above market expansion in its highest margin segment, supporting premium valuation multiples.
Several price target increases and Buy initiations cite growing momentum in grocery and retail, with expectations that these currently dilutive verticals will transition from a profit drag to a medium term earnings tailwind as scale and unit economics improve.
The Deliveroo acquisition is viewed as strategically important for extending DoorDash's local commerce footprint globally, with some models assuming that incremental marketing efficiency and product integration can drive faster growth in 2026 than in 2025.
Coverage reinstatements at major firms, including Goldman Sachs, frame the risk reward as attractive, arguing that strong execution, a disciplined investment framework, and a favorable competitive position support upside to consensus growth and margin assumptions over time.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts stress that stepped up investments in the tech platform, international expansion, and Deliveroo will weigh on EBITDA in the near term, leading to multiple price target cuts despite solid operating trends.
Some Neutral and Equal Weight views argue that a substantial portion of the bull case, including continued market share gains and margin improvement, is already embedded in the stock price, limiting further valuation re rating without clear upside surprises.
There is concern that large capex like commitments, including autonomous delivery pilots and broader AI and automation initiatives, could face challenging economics at scale, delaying the timeline to higher returns on invested capital.
A subset of cautious commentary points to decelerating growth at certain peers and the risk that intensifying competition in grocery delivery and same day logistics could compress take rates or elevate promotional intensity, tempering DoorDash's long term margin expansion narrative.

What's in the News

Australian food delivery workers could receive a roughly 25% pay increase and new accident insurance protections under a draft deal between Uber Eats, DoorDash and the national transport union, potentially raising DoorDash's labor costs in the market (Reuters).
Short seller Culper Research disclosed a short position in DoorDash, alleging widespread use of unauthorized contract workers across the platform and calling the scale of the practice unprecedented in U.S. corporate history (Reuters).
DoorDash publicly rejected Culper Research's short thesis, telling Bloomberg that the report is "demonstrably false," signaling a firm pushback against questions around compliance and workforce vetting (Bloomberg).
Truist boosted its DoorDash price target to $340 from $326 and reiterated a Buy rating, citing card data showing U.S. gross order value growth running slightly ahead of expectations with year over year acceleration into Q4 (Truist research via wire reports).
In Australia, the proposed pay agreement is scheduled to go into effect in July if approved, reinforcing ongoing global regulatory and labor scrutiny of gig economy employment models (Reuters).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate per share has risen slightly to approximately $276.41 from $276.17, reflecting a marginally higher intrinsic value assessment.
The discount rate has increased modestly to about 8.37% from 8.30%, indicating a slightly higher required return and risk assumption.
The revenue growth forecast has edged down fractionally to roughly 23.89% from 23.91%, implying a virtually unchanged long-term top-line outlook.
The net profit margin expectation has dipped slightly to around 13.74% from 13.75%, suggesting a minimal reduction in long-run profitability assumptions.
The future P/E multiple has risen slightly to about 49.6x from 49.4x, reflecting a small increase in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Expanding into new sectors and regions, along with AI-driven efficiency, promises accelerated growth, improved margins, and a broader profit base beyond core delivery.
Enhanced platform features and gig worker pool growth are strengthening operational scalability and user retention, supporting durable long-term earnings potential.
Expanding operations, rising costs, market saturation, and regulatory pressures threaten DoorDash's growth prospects, margins, and profitability without strong execution and successful diversification.

Catalysts

About DoorDash

Operates a commerce platform that connects merchants, consumers, and independent contractors in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Increasing consumer comfort with online transactions and demand for convenient, time-saving solutions continues to drive record user acquisition and all-time high order frequency, indicating that DoorDash's total addressable market remains underpenetrated and poised for long-term revenue growth.
Rapid expansion into new verticals (grocery, retail, convenience, pharmacy) and international markets is yielding faster growth rates and improving unit economics, which should diversify and accelerate topline revenue while supporting net margin expansion.
Strategic investments in AI and automation-such as enhanced search, personalization, logistics optimization, and autonomous/robotic delivery-are expected to lower fulfillment costs per order over time, driving sustained improvements in operating leverage and net margins.
Accelerating growth of high-margin revenue streams (notably, platform advertising and emerging SaaS offerings like the SevenRooms acquisition) is expanding DoorDash's profit pool beyond core delivery, supporting further earnings upside.
The proliferation of gig economy work and ongoing platform improvements are expanding DoorDash's Dasher pool and supporting efficient, scalable operations, which, when combined with improvements in cohort retention and order frequency, are expected to bolster long-term earnings and margin resilience.

DoorDash Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming DoorDash's revenue will grow by 19.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 6.6% today to 15.5% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $3.2 billion (and earnings per share of $6.95) by about September 2028, up from $781.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $3.9 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $1.7 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 55.2x on those 2028 earnings, down from 140.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Hospitality industry at 23.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.84% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.44%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

DoorDash Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

DoorDash's ongoing expansion and investments into numerous new verticals and international markets increases operational complexity and cost structure, raising the risk that execution missteps, slower-than-expected adoption, or inability to adequately localize could constrain long-term revenue growth and result in thinner net margins.
Heavy investments in headcount and product development-despite increased automation and AI initiatives-may outpace revenue growth, creating operational leverage challenges and putting sustained pressure on overall earnings and margins, especially if cohort growth stalls or efficiency gains materialize slower than anticipated.
Rising labor costs, seasonally variable Dasher expenses, and potential regulatory pressures surrounding gig economy work present persistent risks to fulfillment cost structure, which could erode DoorDash's net margins and challenge long-term profitability, particularly as the company relies on discipline rather than specific margin targets.
Although DoorDash continues to penetrate new customer cohorts and drive frequency, there is implicit risk of U.S. market saturation, as suggested by the platform's already high household reach, which could slow long-term user growth and cap future revenue expansion if new verticals do not sufficiently offset this trend.
The company's success in growing platform utility and subscription services (like DashPass and Wolt+) depends on continuous product improvement and partner integration; any lapses in execution, intensifying competition, or shift toward direct-to-consumer channels could negatively impact customer retention and revenue growth, thereby compressing operating margins and earnings power over time.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $294.194 for DoorDash based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $360.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $205.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $20.4 billion, earnings will come to $3.2 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 55.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
Given the current share price of $256.53, the analyst price target of $294.19 is 12.8% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

DASH: Integration Of Deliveroo Will Drive Geographic Expansion And Long-Term Opportunity