Last Update03 Oct 25Fair value Increased 1.02%
Las Vegas Sands' analyst fair value estimate edged higher to $60.51 from $59.90. Analysts cited stronger recent results, ongoing Macau recovery efforts, and positive momentum from the company's Singapore operations.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research highlights a mix of optimism and ongoing caution in analysts' perspectives on Las Vegas Sands. This reflects both the company’s strong execution in certain markets and lingering challenges elsewhere.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts raised price targets following stronger than expected second-quarter results, which were driven by notable revenue and EBITDA momentum, particularly from operations in Singapore.
- Upward revisions to forecasts reflect confidence in ongoing Macau recovery efforts and their potential to improve group-wide performance in the coming quarters.
- Positive trends in gross gaming revenue in Macau and robust performance in Singapore are seen as catalysts for year-over-year EBITDA growth and long-term valuation upside.
- Bullish analysts believe that continued rollout of promotional initiatives in Macau could help the company regain market share by year end.
- Some analysts maintain neutral or equal weight ratings, signaling caution that a full Macau turnaround has not yet materialized and that the recovery remains a work in progress.
- There are concerns about the pace at which promotional reinvestment in Macau will produce results, with meaningful benefits only expected by late this year or next.
- Bears note that despite impressive performance in Singapore, Macau’s recovery trajectory introduces near-term execution risk that may limit upside in the shares.
- Current valuations may already factor in much of the rebound potential, prompting some skepticism about immediate further gains absent more decisive improvement in Macau.
What's in the News
- Las Vegas Sands completed the repurchase of 20,208,729 shares between April 1, 2025 and June 30, 2025, totaling $800.05 million, as part of its ongoing buyback program. The company has now retired 112,718,420 shares, representing 15.12% of shares outstanding, for $5.54 billion since 2016 (Key Developments).
- The company celebrated the groundbreaking of an $8 billion ultra-luxurious resort and entertainment destination in Singapore, officiated by Singapore government officials and Las Vegas Sands leadership (Key Developments).
- The new Singapore development will feature a 570-suite hotel tower, luxury retail, gaming, spa amenities, 200,000 square feet of meeting space, and a 15,000-seat arena. This project aims to redefine luxury tourism and further enhance Marina Bay’s global profile (Key Developments).
- Marina Bay Sands continues its focus on sustainability by integrating green amenities, sustainable building materials, and energy-efficient designs into the new resort’s construction and operations (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has increased slightly from $59.90 to $60.51 per share.
- The Discount Rate has decreased modestly from 9.61% to 9.48%.
- The Revenue Growth Forecast has risen from 6.75% to 6.83%.
- The Net Profit Margin estimate is nearly unchanged at 17.73% compared to 17.75% previously.
- The Future P/E multiple has moved up slightly from 18.31x to 18.41x.
Key Takeaways
- The Londoner Macao's full opening leverages scale and quality, boosting revenues and cash flow in a competitive market.
- Strategic share repurchases aim to drive EPS growth and return value to shareholders, enhancing long-term growth prospects.
- Challenges in the Macao market and strategic limitations, along with intensified competition, could hinder Las Vegas Sands' revenue and profitability growth.
Catalysts
About Las Vegas Sands- Owns, develops, and operates integrated resorts in Macao and Singapore.
- The full opening and ramp-up of The Londoner in Macao, with its 2,405 rooms and suites, is expected to boost revenues and cash flows significantly as the property leverages its scale and quality in a competitive market.
- Marina Bay Sands (MBS) in Singapore reported record EBITDA from high-value tourism and is expected to continue its growth trajectory supported by increased visitor capacity post-renovations, directly impacting revenue and EBITDA growth.
- There is room for continued improvement and growth in EBITDA at both Macao and MBS due to ongoing innovations in gameplay, particularly with side bets in baccarat, which are expected to enhance hold percentages and revenues.
- The strategic focus on share repurchases, including an increase in the buyback authorization to $2 billion, is intended to deliver accretive earnings per share (EPS) growth and return value to shareholders over time.
- Continued reinvestment in Macao assets and the anticipation of non-gaming investments aligning with governmental expectations suggests sustained long-term growth prospects, potentially improving both revenue and net margins.
Las Vegas Sands Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Las Vegas Sands's revenue will grow by 6.8% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 12.2% today to 17.7% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.5 billion (and earnings per share of $3.89) by about September 2028, up from $1.4 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $2.0 billion.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 26.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Hospitality industry at 23.9x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 5.32% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.61%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Las Vegas Sands Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- The Macao market has not grown as anticipated, presenting challenges for revenue and cash flow despite strong assets. [Revenue]
- Macao EBITDA margins were down due to lower-than-expected hold in certain segments, indicating pressure on profitability. [Net Margins]
- The decision to not pursue the New York casino license due to concerns about potential iGaming legalization suggests limits on strategic expansion opportunities. [Earnings]
- Non-Guangdong visitation to Macao is still recovering at only about 75%, which could limit growth prospects in high-spending customer segments. [Revenue]
- Increased competition in the premium mass segment in Macao could pressure market share, potentially affecting revenue and profitability. [Revenue and Net Margins]
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $59.9 for Las Vegas Sands based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $73.5, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $50.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $14.1 billion, earnings will come to $2.5 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.6%.
- Given the current share price of $54.0, the analyst price target of $59.9 is 9.8% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Read more narratives
US$45
FV
9.0% overvalued intrinsic discount5.10%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
1users have followed this narrative
US$65.46
FV
25.1% undervalued intrinsic discount8.21%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
0users have followed this narrative