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PayPal Holdings, Inc. Stock Price

NasdaqGS:PYPL Community·US$40.1b Market Cap
  • 14 Narratives written by author
  • 35 Comments on narratives written by author
  • 1621 Fair Values set on narratives written by author

PYPL Share Price Performance

US$45.47
-30.71 (-40.31%)
US$51.35
Fair Value
US$45.47
-30.71 (-40.31%)
11.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
US$51.35
Fair Value
Price US$45.47
AnalystConsensusTarget US$51.35
WealthAP US$82.00
ValueInvestingSubstack US$60.00

PYPL Community Narratives

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Fair Value US$51.35 11.5% undervalued intrinsic discount

Analyst Commentary Highlights Mixed Outlook and Modest Valuation Changes for PayPal Holdings

6users have liked this narrative
1users have commented on this narrative
523users have followed this narrative
Fair Value
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Fair Value US$82 44.5% undervalued intrinsic discount

The "Sleeping Giant" Stumbles, Then Wakes Up

36users have liked this narrative
6users have commented on this narrative
98users have followed this narrative
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Fair Value US$60 24.2% undervalued intrinsic discount

$PYPL Options Are Cheap

3users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
8users have followed this narrative
US$65
30.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
US$60
24.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
6.48% p.a.
Profit Margin
15%
Future PE
7.71x
Price in 2031
US$87.02
US$90.01
49.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
0.31% p.a.
Profit Margin
14.08%
Future PE
19.56x
Price in 2029
US$126.13
US$82
44.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
8.51% p.a.
Profit Margin
14.96%
Future PE
11.41x
Price in 2030
US$119.19
US$111.57
59.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5% p.a.
Profit Margin
13%
Future PE
30x
Price in 2028
US$167.76
US$189.96
76.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
11.13% p.a.
Profit Margin
18%
Future PE
20x
Price in 2029
US$241.56

Trending Discussion

Updated Narratives

PYPL logo

PayPal: PayPal Doesn't Need to Grow – It Needs to Stop Falling – A Mispriced Cash Machine With a Cannibal Buyback

Fair Value: US$65 30.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
1 users have set this as their fair value
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
PYPL logo

$PYPL Options Are Cheap

Fair Value: US$60 24.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
8 users have set this as their fair value
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
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Paypal - A Fundamental and Historical Valuation

Fair Value: US$89.87 49.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
1 users have set this as their fair value
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative

Snowflake Analysis

Outstanding track record and undervalued.

1 Risk
3 Rewards

PayPal Holdings, Inc. Key Details

US$33.7b

Revenue

US$19.9b

Cost of Revenue

US$13.8b

Gross Profit

US$8.7b

Other Expenses

US$5.1b

Earnings

Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Reporting Earnings
Jul 28, 2026
5.74
40.93%
15.00%
54.9%
View Full Analysis

About PYPL

Founded
1998
Employees
23800
CEO
Enrique Lores
WebsiteView website
www.paypal.com

PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide. The company operates a two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers that enables its customers to connect, transact, and send and receive payments through online and in person, as well as transfer and withdraw funds using various funding sources, such as bank accounts, PayPal or Venmo account balance, consumer credit and debit products, credit and debit cards, and cryptocurrencies, as well as other stored value products, including gift cards and eligible rewards. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Recent PYPL News & Updates

New Narrative Jul 02

PayPal: PayPal Doesn't Need to Grow – It Needs to Stop Falling – A Mispriced Cash Machine With a Cannibal Buyback

The market prices PayPal (~8x earnings) as a structurally dying payments company. The numbers show something else: ~$6.8B in annual free cash flow, a net-cash balance sheet (~$13.5B cash vs.

Recent updates

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