NuVista Energy Ltd.

TSX:NVA Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$3.5b

NuVista Energy Valuation

Is NVA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NVA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CA$53.56
Fair Value
66.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: NVA (CA$18.01) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$53.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NVA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NVA?

Key metric: As NVA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NVA. This is calculated by dividing NVA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NVA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10x
EarningsCA$351.58m
Market CapCA$3.51b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NVA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NVA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23x
POU Paramount Resources
2.4x-67.44%CA$3.3b
TPZ Topaz Energy
69.4x26.58%CA$3.9b
ATH Athabasca Oil
7.5x-29.33%CA$3.5b
PEY Peyto Exploration & Development
12.6x8.83%CA$4.2b
NVA NuVista Energy
10x5.89%CA$3.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NVA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the peer average (23x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NVA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CNE Canacol Energy
1.6x32.24%US$50.10m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
RZE.H Razor Energy
0.1xn/aUS$3.57m
No more companies available in this PE range
NVA 10.0xIndustry Avg. 13.9xNo. of Companies10PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NVA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (13.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NVA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NVA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10x
Fair PE Ratio13x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NVA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NVA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$18.01
CA$18.19
+1.01%
5.45%CA$20.00CA$17.00n/a13
Nov ’26CA$16.68
CA$18.69
+12.06%
6.84%CA$20.50CA$17.00n/a13
Oct ’26CA$16.24
CA$17.54
+8.00%
5.42%CA$19.00CA$16.00n/a13
Sep ’26CA$14.60
CA$17.54
+20.13%
5.64%CA$19.00CA$16.00n/a13
Aug ’26CA$14.30
CA$17.23
+20.49%
6.60%CA$20.00CA$16.00n/a13
Jul ’26CA$14.98
CA$17.23
+15.03%
6.60%CA$20.00CA$16.00n/a13
Jun ’26CA$13.82
CA$16.73
+21.06%
6.69%CA$18.00CA$14.00n/a13
May ’26CA$11.84
CA$16.77
+41.63%
8.07%CA$19.00CA$14.00n/a13
Apr ’26CA$13.85
CA$17.35
+25.30%
9.78%CA$20.00CA$14.00n/a12
Mar ’26CA$11.85
CA$17.58
+48.38%
11.94%CA$22.50CA$14.00n/a12
Feb ’26CA$13.01
CA$17.58
+35.15%
11.94%CA$22.50CA$14.00n/a12
Jan ’26CA$13.82
CA$17.23
+24.67%
12.05%CA$22.50CA$14.00n/a12
Dec ’25CA$13.57
CA$16.73
+23.28%
12.61%CA$22.50CA$14.00n/a12
Nov ’25CA$11.38
CA$16.44
+44.44%
13.49%CA$22.50CA$14.00CA$16.6812
Oct ’25CA$11.36
CA$16.83
+48.18%
14.47%CA$22.50CA$14.00CA$16.2412
Sep ’25CA$12.77
CA$17.42
+36.39%
11.71%CA$22.50CA$15.00CA$14.6012
Aug ’25CA$13.22
CA$17.29
+30.80%
12.35%CA$22.50CA$15.00CA$14.3012
Jul ’25CA$14.22
CA$16.58
+16.62%
13.36%CA$22.50CA$14.00CA$14.9812
Jun ’25CA$13.66
CA$16.12
+17.97%
10.48%CA$20.50CA$14.00CA$13.8213
May ’25CA$12.31
CA$16.12
+30.91%
10.48%CA$20.50CA$14.00CA$11.8413
Apr ’25CA$12.02
CA$15.40
+28.09%
13.35%CA$20.50CA$13.00CA$13.8512
Mar ’25CA$11.77
CA$15.23
+29.39%
13.76%CA$20.50CA$13.00CA$11.8512
Feb ’25CA$10.39
CA$15.46
+48.78%
12.83%CA$20.50CA$13.00CA$13.0112
Jan ’25CA$11.04
CA$16.38
+48.32%
11.92%CA$20.50CA$13.00CA$13.8212
Dec ’24CA$11.73
CA$16.56
+41.16%
10.33%CA$20.50CA$14.00CA$13.5713
Nov ’24CA$13.56
CA$16.50
+21.68%
10.84%CA$20.50CA$14.00CA$11.3813
CA$18.19
Fair Value
1.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/11/09 02:40
End of Day Share Price 2025/11/07 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

NuVista Energy Ltd. is covered by 25 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Patrick O'RourkeATB Capital Markets
null nullBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Randy OllenbergerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research