First Quantum Minerals Ltd.

TSX:FM Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$36.2b

First Quantum Minerals Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

First Quantum Minerals is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 50.4% and 21% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 51.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 13.5% in 3 years.

Key information

50.4%

Earnings growth rate

51.12%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining earnings growth13.4%
Revenue growth rate21.0%
Future return on equity13.54%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated07 Aug 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Aug 07

FM: Restart Progress And Copper Exposure Will Drive Future Upside Potential

First Quantum Minerals' updated fair value estimate has increased to CA$48.56 from CA$47.06, as analysts adjust price targets within a mixed range of CA$41 to CA$55 and factor in revised margin expectations along with higher assumed future P/E levels. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on First Quantum Minerals shows a wide range of opinions, with price targets clustered between about CA$33 and CA$55 and ratings that span from Neutral to Buy and Overweight.
Narrative Update • Jul 24

FM: Cobre Panama Progress Is Expected To Drive Future Re Rating

Analyst price targets for First Quantum Minerals have moved higher to CA$55 from CA$46, with the shift supported by expectations of improved financial conditions, potential progress around Cobre Panama and a stronger copper backdrop highlighted across recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on First Quantum Minerals show a cluster of bullish analysts lifting price targets into the mid C$40s and low to mid C$50s, with several upgrades to more positive ratings.
Narrative Update • Jul 10

FM: Fair Value View Balances Cobre Panama Clarity And Margin Resilience

Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for First Quantum Minerals to CA$40.73, reflecting a higher assumed future P/E of 20.0x and slightly stronger profit margins. Recent Street price targets, ranging roughly from CA$41 to CA$55, highlight differing views on the potential impact of Cobre Panama and updated risk assumptions.
Narrative Update • Jun 26

FM: Cobre Panama Restart Progress Will Drive Future Upside Potential

The updated analyst price target for First Quantum Minerals has increased from CA$34.96 to CA$47.06. Analysts attribute this change to recent target increases and rating upgrades that reflect potential benefits from progress around Cobre Panama and a reassessment of the overall risk/reward profile.
New Narrative • Jan 31

Cobre Panamá Uncertainty And Rising Zambian Costs Will Pressure Margins And Future Cash Flows

Catalysts About First Quantum Minerals First Quantum Minerals is a global mining company focused on producing copper, nickel and gold from operations in Zambia, Panama, Turkey, Finland and other jurisdictions. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

TSX:FM - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202811,4061,9903,3925,12713
12/31/20279,3601,6371,5873,45516
12/31/20266,722273571,50316
6/30/20265,747-834961,709N/A
3/31/20265,451-2011,1342,359N/A
12/31/20255,237-288582,082N/A
9/30/20255,018461,4522,701N/A
6/30/20254,9512024791,766N/A
3/31/20254,956138511,383N/A
12/31/20244,80223111,651N/A
9/30/20244,764-1,544-462883N/A
6/30/20245,514-1,327-1621,217N/A
3/31/20245,934-1,1882131,539N/A
12/31/20236,456-9541011,427N/A
9/30/20237,0706105481,849N/A
6/30/20236,7683985531,780N/A
3/31/20237,0217247841,965N/A
12/31/20227,6261,0341,1412,332N/A
9/30/20227,8551,1641,7102,855N/A
6/30/20227,8751,3541,9153,033N/A
3/31/20227,7531,0751,7062,808N/A
12/31/20217,2128321,8862,885N/A
9/30/20216,6235941,7662,658N/A
6/30/20216,2783201,6532,407N/A
3/31/20215,510241,2631,883N/A
12/31/20205,070-1801,0031,613N/A
9/30/20204,882-3047171,480N/A
6/30/20204,467-4061831,179N/A
3/31/20204,392-172N/A1,203N/A
12/31/20194,067-57N/A889N/A
9/30/20193,837256N/A827N/A
6/30/20193,828390N/A1,115N/A
3/31/20193,938447N/A1,343N/A
12/31/20183,966441N/A1,980N/A
9/30/20183,797128N/A1,845N/A
6/30/20183,69615N/A1,673N/A
3/31/20183,429-155N/A1,471N/A
12/31/20173,310-316N/A914N/A
9/30/20173,114-189N/A804N/A
6/30/20172,842-101N/A800N/A
3/31/20172,71959N/A921N/A
12/31/20162,673222N/A923N/A
9/30/20162,703321N/A1,595N/A
6/30/20162,730-145N/A1,502N/A
3/31/20162,629-374N/A1,280N/A
12/31/20152,511-501N/A1,191N/A
9/30/20152,613-159N/A644N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FM is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.1%).

Earnings vs Market: FM is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: FM is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FM's revenue (21% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market (4.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FM's revenue (21% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FM's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.5%).

Discover growth companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/08/10 05:24
End of Day Share Price 2026/08/07 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. is covered by 47 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harriet LiAccountability Research Corporation
Clifford Hale-SandersATB Cormark Historical (Cormark Securities)
Richard GarchitorenaBarclays