BAE Systems plc

LSE:BA. Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£52.2b

BAE Systems Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

BAE Systems is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 12% and 9.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 11.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 22% in 3 years.

Key information

12.0%

Earnings growth rate

11.85%

EPS growth rate

Aerospace & Defense earnings growth2.8%
Revenue growth rate9.4%
Future return on equity22.01%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated18 Jun 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jun 18

BA.: Strong Defence Demand And Buybacks Will Support Shares Into 2026

BAE Systems has seen its consensus analyst price target raised by £0.50 as analysts factor in updated fair value estimates, revised growth assumptions and a slightly higher discount rate in their valuation models. What’s in the News for BAE Systems BAE Systems shares rose in London as investors reacted to continued strong defence demand, a reaffirmed 2026 outlook for sales, underlying EBIT and EPS, and an ongoing share buyback program.
Narrative Update • Jun 03

BA.: Expanding Space And Missile Defense Exposure Should Support Earnings Repricing

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for BAE Systems from £26.00 to £26.62, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rates and future P/E expectations following recent Street research, including a £0.50 price target increase from UBS. What's in the News MDA Space has been selected by BAE Systems to provide antennas and control electronics for the U.S. Space Development Agency's Medium Earth Orbit EPOCH 2 Constellation, supporting national security satellite architecture and missile defense capabilities.
Narrative Update • May 19

BA.: Firmer Defence Backdrop Will Offset Softer 2026 Guidance Risks

Analysts have lifted BAE Systems' blended price target to £2,438, reflecting slightly firmer revenue growth and margin assumptions, along with recent target increases from several research houses. Analyst Commentary Recent research activity around BAE Systems has clustered around incremental price target moves, with some analysts highlighting execution and growth questions even as headline targets sit above current levels.
Narrative Update • May 03

BA.: US Defense Contracts And NATO Demand Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for BAE Systems to £23.23 per share, a modest move supported by recent price target increases at several banks that cite slightly ahead of expectation 2025 results, a softer 2026 outlook, and updated P/E assumptions around £2,150 to £2,438 price targets. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a mixed but generally constructive tone around BAE Systems, with several price target updates clustered around the £21.50 to £24.38 range and differing views on how much upside is left after the latest results and outlook.
Narrative Update • Apr 18

BA.: Softer 2026 Outlook Will Cap Upside Despite Recent Contract Momentum

Narrative Update The updated analyst price target for BAE Systems has moved slightly higher to £2,438. This is supported by recent target increases from multiple banks and analyst comments that reference fiscal 2025 results coming in slightly ahead of expectations, even as the 2026 outlook is described as slightly soft.
Narrative Update • Apr 03

BA.: Sector Caution Around Softer 2026 Outlook Will Restrain Overheated Expectations

BAE Systems' analyst fair value has moved from £15.83 to £18.76 per share, with the change supported by higher Street price targets clustered around £19.50 to £24.38 and analyst commentary referencing recent results that were slightly ahead of expectations and updated outlooks. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a mixed tone around BAE Systems, with several price target increases sitting alongside rating downgrades and more cautious framing of future results.
Narrative Update • Mar 20

BA.: Raising Defence Exposure Should Support Earnings Repricing Beyond 2026

Narrative Update The analyst price target for BAE Systems has moved higher into a £1,860 to £2,438 range, reflecting analysts' updated views that supportive revenue growth assumptions, slightly softer margin expectations, and modestly adjusted future P/E multiples together justify a higher valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research points to generally constructive sentiment on BAE Systems, with several bullish analysts moving price targets higher into the upper half of the current £1,860 to £2,438 range.
Narrative Update • Mar 06

BA.: NATO Rearmament And US Contracts Will Support Measured Future Demand

Narrative Update on BAE Systems The analyst price target for BAE Systems has been raised from £21.49 to £22.90, reflecting higher Street targets, including recent increases from £19.50 to £24.00 per share, supported by updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and a slightly adjusted P/E outlook. Analyst Commentary Street research on BAE Systems over recent months shows a mix of optimism on the earnings outlook and valuation support, alongside some caution on future share performance and relative appeal versus peers.
Narrative Update • Feb 20

BA.: Defence Order Momentum And 2026 Visibility Will Support Earnings Repricing

The updated analyst price target for BAE Systems edges up from £25.51 to £26.00. This change reflects analysts' mixed but generally constructive research in recent weeks, including higher price targets after slightly ahead of expectation fiscal 2025 results and revised outlooks into 2026.
Narrative Update • Feb 06

BA.: NATO Rearmament And New US Contracts Will Support Sustained Demand

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for BAE Systems higher to £21.49 from £21.01, reflecting modest tweaks to assumptions on growth, margins and future P/E. The revision incorporates a mix of recent price target hikes from JPMorgan, Berenberg and Kepler Cheuvreux, alongside downgrades from Jefferies and Bernstein.
Narrative Update • Jan 23

BA.: Higher Defence Orders And Guidance Will Support Earnings Repricing

We are nudging our BAE Systems fair value estimate higher to £25.51 from £25.00. This reflects analysts' higher price targets in the £1,860 to £2,400 range, supported by updated assumptions on revenue growth and P/E multiples, even as margin expectations are slightly lower.
Narrative Update • Jan 08

BA.: Sector Caution And U.S. Shutdown Risk Will Restrain Overheated Expectations

Narrative Update The updated analyst price targets for BAE Systems now center around £19.50 to £18.60 per share. This reflects a modestly lower fair value estimate and slightly adjusted growth, discount rate and P/E assumptions, as analysts balance sector wide caution with valuation driven support.
Narrative Update • Dec 24

BA.: NATO-Fueled Demand Will Face Execution And Budget Uncertainty

Analysts have raised their price target on BAE Systems by approximately 12 percent to reflect stronger expected revenue growth, slightly higher margins, and robust, geographically diversified demand from NATO countries. This demand is anticipated to support a higher future valuation multiple.
Narrative Update • Dec 10

BA.: NATO Rearmament Cycle Will Drive Sustained Demand Despite Political Risks

Analysts have marginally trimmed their price target for BAE Systems by approximately £0.20 per share, citing slightly higher discount rate assumptions and a modestly lower revenue growth outlook. They still expect robust, NATO-driven demand and continue to favor the company within a selectively valued European defense sector.
Narrative Update • Nov 26

BA.: Global Defense Demand Will Drive Sustained Momentum Despite Sector Selectivity

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for BAE Systems from £21.35 to £21.21, citing strong ongoing demand and sector tailwinds, which are balanced by high market valuations. Analyst Commentary Recent street research highlights both the optimism and caution among analysts regarding BAE Systems’ prospects.
Narrative Update • Nov 10

BA.: Robust NATO Demand Will Sustain Sector Momentum Amid High Valuations

Analysts have modestly revised their price target for BAE Systems, maintaining fair value at £21.35. They cite robust demand from NATO countries and continued sector strength, despite high valuations.
Analysis Article • Nov 05

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of BAE Systems plc (LON:BA.)

Key Insights The projected fair value for BAE Systems is UK£22.07 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With...
Narrative Update • Oct 27

Diversified Defense Demand And Global Tensions Will Drive New Order Expansion

Analysts have raised their price target for BAE Systems from £20.75 to £21.35. They cite the company's strong defense demand and diversified portfolio as key factors supporting the updated outlook.
Analysis Article • Oct 16

BAE Systems' (LON:BA.) Dividend Will Be £0.135

The board of BAE Systems plc ( LON:BA. ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of £0.135 per share on the 3rd of...
Analysis Article • Oct 03

Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For BAE Systems plc (LON:BA.)

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 31.1x BAE Systems plc ( LON:BA. ) may be sending very bearish signals at...
Analysis Article • Sep 19

BAE Systems (LON:BA.) Has Announced A Dividend Of £0.135

BAE Systems plc's ( LON:BA. ) investors are due to receive a payment of £0.135 per share on 3rd of December. This makes...
Analysis Article • Sep 05

BAE Systems' (LON:BA.) Dividend Will Be £0.135

The board of BAE Systems plc ( LON:BA. ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 3rd of December, with...
Analysis Article • Aug 26

BAE Systems (LON:BA.) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Analysis Article • Aug 14

BAE Systems (LON:BA.) Will Pay A Dividend Of £0.135

BAE Systems plc ( LON:BA. ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of £0.135 per share on the 3rd of December. This...
Analysis Article • Aug 13

The Returns At BAE Systems (LON:BA.) Aren't Growing

LSE:BA. 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore BAE Systems's Fair Values from the Community and select yours To find...
Analysis Article • Jul 27

Does BAE Systems (LON:BA.) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...
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New Narrative • Feb 23

Investments In Space, AI, And Drones Will Secure Future Leadership In Defense Technologies

Record order backlog and alignment with global defense spending will drive revenue growth and margin expansion through strategic national defense alignments.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

LSE:BA. - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (GBP Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202838,6932,9732,9274,51514
12/31/202735,9622,6752,5464,17316
12/31/202633,2102,3142,1513,59217
12/31/202528,3362,0622,3293,432N/A
9/30/202527,8712,0202,2043,337N/A
6/30/202527,4061,9772,0793,242N/A
3/31/202526,8591,9672,4213,584N/A
12/31/202426,3121,9562,7623,925N/A
9/30/202425,4351,8982,3783,479N/A
6/30/202424,5581,8401,9943,033N/A
3/31/202423,8181,8492,3993,397N/A
12/31/202323,0781,8572,8033,760N/A
9/30/202322,7971,8992,9173,795N/A
6/30/202322,5161,9413,0313,830N/A
3/31/202321,8871,7662,5893,335N/A
12/31/202221,2581,5912,1462,839N/A
9/30/202220,5901,4821,8802,578N/A
6/30/202219,9211,3731,6142,317N/A
3/31/202219,7211,5661,7252,382N/A
12/31/202119,5211,7581,8352,447N/A
9/30/202119,4791,7631,9462,482N/A
6/30/202119,4361,7672,0562,516N/A
3/31/202119,3571,5331,3731,841N/A
12/31/202019,2771,2996891,166N/A
9/30/202019,0441,2566611,134N/A
6/30/202018,8111,2136321,102N/A
3/31/202018,5581,3458801,350N/A
12/31/201918,3051,4761,1281,597N/A
9/30/201917,8201,400N/A1,481N/A
6/30/201917,3341,324N/A1,365N/A
3/31/201917,0781,162N/A1,283N/A
12/31/201816,8211,000N/A1,200N/A
9/30/201816,646865N/A1,180N/A
6/30/201816,470729N/A1,159N/A
3/31/201816,847778N/A1,528N/A
12/31/201717,224827N/A1,897N/A
9/30/201717,826951N/A1,695N/A
6/30/201718,4271,074N/A1,493N/A
3/31/201718,109994N/A1,361N/A
12/31/201617,790913N/A1,229N/A
9/30/201617,427925N/A1,265N/A
6/30/201617,064936N/A1,300N/A
3/31/201616,926927N/A1,054N/A
12/31/201516,787918N/A808N/A
9/30/201516,548810N/A619N/A
6/30/201516,309701N/A430N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BA.'s forecast earnings growth (12% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).

Earnings vs Market: BA.'s earnings (12% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the UK market (11.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BA.'s earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BA.'s revenue (9.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BA.'s revenue (9.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BA.'s Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (22%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/19 22:40
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/19 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

BAE Systems plc is covered by 32 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Joseph CampbellBarclays
George McwhirterBerenberg
Adrien RabierBernstein