BP p.l.c.

LSE:BP. Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£88.4b

BP Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

BP's revenue is forecast to decline at 0.1% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 10.1% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 12.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 15.2% in 3 years.

Key information

10.1%

Earnings growth rate

12.27%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth8.8%
Revenue growth rate-0.1%
Future return on equity15.18%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated01 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

BP.: Future Returns Will Reflect Middle East Supply Risks And Higher Oil Prices

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for BP, with the updated price target moving from £5.69 to £6.04. Recent research highlights higher profit margin assumptions, a slightly adjusted discount rate and a modestly lower future P/E multiple, supported by a series of recent upgrades and price target increases across major firms.

Upstream Reliability And Cost Resets Will Support Stronger Long Term Earnings Quality

Catalysts About BP BP is an integrated energy company involved in oil and gas production, refining, trading and lower carbon energy businesses. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

BP.: Future Returns Will Reflect Middle East Supply Risks And Mixed Oil Outlook

Analysts have lifted their average price target on BP by £0.58, citing updated views on fair value, revenue growth assumptions, discount rates and future P/E levels, as reflected in a series of recent target raises and rating changes across major banks. Analyst Commentary Recent research on BP shows a mix of optimism and caution, with price targets adjusted in both directions and several rating changes across major banks.

BP.: Future Returns Will Depend On Elevated Middle East Oil Supply Risks

Narrative Update The analyst price target for BP has been raised by £0.22. Analysts point to higher oil and gas price assumptions, tighter projected crude balances, and stronger valuation support for integrated energy majors as the key drivers of their updated view.

BP.: Future Returns Will Reflect Mixed Oil Cycle Risks And CEO Transition

Our updated view lifts BP's fair value estimate slightly, supported by a higher blended analyst price target moving toward the £5.20 to £5.40 range as several firms cite valuation support for integrated oil names despite a mix of recent upgrades, downgrades, and target tweaks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on BP shows a split view, with some major firms lifting targets and others turning more cautious as they reassess risks around commodities, capital allocation, and leadership changes.

BP.: Future Returns Will Reflect Portfolio Sales Refining Strength And CEO Transition

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on BP by £0.10, citing more cautious revenue growth assumptions, a slightly higher discount rate, and continued sector wide downgrades that have only been partially offset by firmer margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on BP points to a mixed backdrop, with several downgrades and price target cuts offset by a smaller group of more constructive voices focusing on balance sheet strength and refining exposure.

Broker Revenue Forecasts For BP p.l.c. (LON:BP.) Are Surging Higher

Feb 11
Broker Revenue Forecasts For BP p.l.c. (LON:BP.) Are Surging Higher

BP.: Future Returns Will Balance Portfolio Sales Softer Crude And Leadership Change

Analysts have trimmed their BP price targets by a few dollars or pence overall, reflecting slightly lower fair value estimates and revenue growth assumptions. This has been partially offset by a small uplift in expected profit margins and future P/E, as firms reassess the company around a softer crude outlook, refining tailwinds, and an upcoming CEO transition.

BP.: Future Returns Will Reflect Portfolio Sales Crude Outlook And Leadership Change

Analysts have slightly trimmed their blended price target for BP by adjusting revenue growth and margin assumptions and by applying a marginally higher future P/E. This reflects mixed recent research, with some firms cutting targets in light of a bearish crude outlook and the CEO transition, while others have lifted targets based on balance sheet strength and the refreshed company strategy.

BP.: Future Returns Will Reflect Portfolio Reset Divestments And Leadership Transition

Analysts have trimmed their overall price expectations for BP, reflected in a slightly lower fair value estimate and a modestly higher future P/E assumption. Recent target cuts and rating changes are balancing more upbeat views that reference an unchanged or higher price target across both US$ and £ share lines.

BP.: Future Returns Will Reflect Portfolio Streamlining And Ongoing Divestment Execution

Analysts have modestly increased their price target on BP, reflecting a slightly higher fair value and improved long term earnings multiple assumptions, supported by recent target hikes to $40 in the U.S. and above 500 GBp in London, as they point to the company’s strategic reset, portfolio simplification, and still attractive valuation. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight that BP's strategy reset, with a sharper focus on portfolio simplification and divestment of non core assets, is starting to resonate in higher price targets and improved confidence in long term earnings growth.

BP.: Future Returns Will Reflect Portfolio Pruning And Execution Risks Amid Sector Uncertainty

We raise our BP price target modestly, reflecting analysts' series of upward revisions to both U.S. dollar targets toward $40 and U.K. listings toward the 520 to 525 GBp range, supported by a view that BP's strategic reset, portfolio pruning, and persistent valuation discount improve the risk and reward profile for the shares. Analyst Commentary Street research has turned incrementally more constructive on BP, with a series of target price increases in both U.S. dollar and sterling terms reflecting improved confidence in the company’s strategic reset, portfolio actions, and capital return potential.

BP.: Shares Will Reflect Reset Strategy And Portfolio Streamlining Amid Sector Uncertainty

Analysts have modestly raised their price targets for BP, with upward revisions to $40 and 525 GBp. This reflects confidence in the company's refreshed strategy and improved risk-reward outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent street research reflects a generally optimistic yet nuanced outlook for BP's shares, with price target increases from several firms.

BP's (LON:BP.) Soft Earnings Are Actually Better Than They Appear

Nov 11
BP's (LON:BP.) Soft Earnings Are Actually Better Than They Appear

BP.: Shares Will Reflect Improved Profit Potential Amid Mixed Sector Sentiment

Analysts have raised their price target for BP, increasing fair value estimates by approximately $0.13 per share. They cite improved growth prospects, stronger profitability, and confidence in the company's strategic direction and valuation.

Upstream Discoveries and Capital Returns Will Influence Global Energy Markets Ahead

Analysts have modestly increased their price targets for BP, citing improving profit margins and positive sector dynamics. Recent updates reflect a rise from £4.58 to £4.59 and from $36 to $40, according to current street research.

Upstream Breakthroughs And Cost Cuts Will Reshape Global Energy Markets

Analysts have raised BP's price target, with recent updates reflecting an increase from $36 to $40 and from 440 GBp to 460 GBp. This change is attributed to improving execution and the company's potential to close its valuation gap with peers. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage reflects a wave of optimistic sentiment toward BP, though some analysts maintain a more cautious outlook.

Upstream Breakthroughs And Cost Cuts Will Reshape Global Energy Markets

Analysts have raised BP’s price target from £4.44 to £4.51, citing improved earnings, a positive outlook on upstream growth after the Bumerangue Block discovery, and confidence in valuation convergence with peers. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite BP’s attractive valuation relative to European supermajor peers, expecting the valuation gap to narrow.

BP p.l.c.'s (LON:BP.) Low P/S No Reason For Excitement

Sep 25
BP p.l.c.'s (LON:BP.) Low P/S No Reason For Excitement

Upstream Breakthroughs And Cost Cuts Will Reshape Global Energy Markets

Analysts have raised BP’s price target to £4.43, citing its strong recent results, attractive valuation relative to peers, operational improvements, and the positive impact of the Bumerangue Block discovery. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight BP's relative strength in recent IOC results, supported by its unique mix of growth options, resource depth, and sustainable shareholder returns.

BP p.l.c. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Aug 07
BP p.l.c. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Upstream Breakthroughs And Cost Cuts Will Reshape Global Energy Markets

Buoyed by stronger-than-expected margins and improved outlook for core refining and integrated oil operations, analysts have raised BP’s consensus price target from £4.24 to £5.37. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are increasing earnings estimates for BP driven by stronger-than-expected margins, particularly in the most recent quarter.

BP (LON:BP.) Is Doing The Right Things To Multiply Its Share Price

Aug 04
BP (LON:BP.) Is Doing The Right Things To Multiply Its Share Price

Are Investors Undervaluing BP p.l.c. (LON:BP.) By 47%?

Jul 05
Are Investors Undervaluing BP p.l.c. (LON:BP.) By 47%?

These 4 Measures Indicate That BP (LON:BP.) Is Using Debt Extensively

Jun 20
These 4 Measures Indicate That BP (LON:BP.) Is Using Debt Extensively
User avatar

Completion Of Eight Biogas Plants And New Assets In Iraq Will Strengthen Future Prospects

BP's strategic optimization and divestment of non-competitive assets aim to enhance capital allocation, improving net margins and long-term earnings.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

LSE:BP. - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2028199,9339,76112,33728,00210
12/31/2027199,09110,59312,39427,75513
12/31/2026228,71315,31812,14829,15410
3/31/2026193,0053,20911,40724,519N/A
12/31/2025187,6375411,27224,493N/A
9/30/2025186,0101,51710,66724,318N/A
6/30/2025184,8065628,59023,293N/A
3/31/2025185,408-1,19610,19225,122N/A
12/31/2024187,38639012,00027,297N/A
9/30/2024192,6962,72013,59629,247N/A
6/30/2024199,1347,37216,34931,233N/A
3/31/2024201,0799,29314,55229,426N/A
12/31/2023208,35115,23817,75432,039N/A
9/30/2023226,39125,67022,49936,233N/A
6/30/2023227,54018,64922,39135,774N/A
3/31/2023246,02226,11427,74840,344N/A
12/31/2022239,067-2,48828,86340,932N/A
9/30/2022220,870-10,96522,33233,477N/A
6/30/2022202,318-11,34720,47831,165N/A
3/31/2022171,248-17,48715,25725,713N/A
12/31/2021156,4317,56312,72523,612N/A
9/30/2021133,8756,5958,72819,765N/A
6/30/2021124,2278,6908,02618,993N/A
3/31/2021109,193-11,2755,76917,319N/A
12/31/2020105,672-20,306-14412,162N/A
9/30/2020149,126-21,6454,17617,496N/A
6/30/2020190,905-21,9443,65118,348N/A
3/31/2020242,072-3,2745,91421,426N/A
12/31/2019158,1094,025N/A25,770N/A
9/30/2019281,6444,772N/A24,996N/A
6/30/2019292,7108,870N/A25,032N/A
3/31/2019295,3139,847N/A24,523N/A
12/31/2018297,5339,382N/A22,873N/A
9/30/2018289,0348,643N/A21,947N/A
6/30/2018269,5867,063N/A21,879N/A
3/31/2018250,8424,408N/A20,463N/A
12/31/2017238,4333,388N/A18,931N/A
9/30/2017222,2593,858N/A15,456N/A
6/30/2017209,5253,709N/A11,940N/A
3/31/2017199,5452,146N/A10,933N/A
12/31/2016182,325114N/A10,691N/A
9/30/2016180,811-3,691N/A14,069N/A
6/30/2016189,890-5,265N/A16,744N/A
3/31/2016205,584-9,669N/A19,147N/A
12/31/2015222,243-6,484N/A19,133N/A
9/30/2015247,531-7,584N/A20,574N/A
6/30/2015285,521-6,340N/A24,790N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BP.'s forecast earnings growth (10.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.2%).

Earnings vs Market: BP.'s earnings (10.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the UK market (12.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BP.'s earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BP.'s revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-0.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BP.'s revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.1% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BP.'s Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.2%).

Discover growth companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/03 13:12
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/01 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

BP p.l.c. is covered by 53 analysts. 24 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John EadeArgus Research Company
William SeleskyArgus Research Company
Alejandro VigilBanco Santander