Shell plc

LSE:SHEL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£204.2b

Shell Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

Shell's revenue and earnings are forecast to decline at 1.3% and 6.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 0.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 13.4% in 3 years.

Key information

-6.8%

Earnings growth rate

0.93%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth-2.2%
Revenue growth rate-1.3%
Future return on equity13.42%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated10 Sep 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Nov 02

Shell plc Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week saw the newest third-quarter earnings release from Shell plc ( LON:SHEL ), an important milestone in the...

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Sep 04

SHEL: Portfolio Shifts And Reserve Concerns Will Shape Fairly Valued Shares

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Shell from £30.41 to £32.83, citing updated views on production longevity, revised commodity price forecasts, adjusted P/E assumptions, slightly less severe revenue decline expectations and a modestly higher profit margin. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Shell shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms revisiting price targets and ratings as they update commodity price assumptions and views on production durability.
Narrative Update • Aug 03

SHEL: Qatari Disruption And Reserve Concerns Will Challenge Current Share Price

Shell's analyst fair value estimate has been revised higher to £30.41 from £27.53, as analysts weigh a mix of trimmed Street price targets near £30 to £36 per share, balanced valuations around 4x 2027 EBITDA, and updated views on integrated gas earnings, reserve life, refining and chemicals margins, and legal risk. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Shell reflects a mix of support and caution, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets and highlighting risks that investors may want to weigh alongside the revised fair value estimate.
Analysis Article • Jul 30

Shell plc (LON:SHEL) Analysts Just Slashed This Year's Revenue Estimates By 12%

Market forces rained on the parade of Shell plc ( LON:SHEL ) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their...
Narrative Update • Jul 20

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect ARC Deal And LNG Expansion Shift

Shell's analyst fair value has been trimmed by around £0.86 per share. This reflects slightly softer revenue growth assumptions, offset in part by firmer profit margin and P/E expectations that keep the overall risk/reward profile broadly balanced in recent research.
Narrative Update • Jul 06

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect ARC Deal And Upstream Portfolio Reshaping

Analysts have adjusted Shell's fair value estimate down by about £1 to £37.91, reflecting slightly lower consolidated price targets as some firms reduced their Shell targets in light of sector-wide oil major adjustments and recent rating changes. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Shell highlights a mix of optimism and caution, with adjustments to price targets in multiple currencies and fresh views on the impact of the ARC Resources acquisition and sector wide oil major repricing.
Narrative Update • Jun 22

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect ARC Deal And Integrated Gas Expansion

Shell's analyst price target is nudging higher by about £0.11 per share as analysts factor in the ARC Resources acquisition, reflecting updated assumptions around integrated gas earnings, cash flow, and medium term upstream visibility, despite some offsetting target cuts from more cautious houses. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Shell present a split picture, with some analysts adjusting targets higher after the ARC Resources acquisition and others trimming their numbers or downgrading the stock.
Analysis Article • Jun 17

Shell (LSE:SHEL) Stock Could Be 14.5% Undervalued After Annual Results

Shell (LSE:SHEL) recently drew investor attention after its latest annual figures showed revenue of $267.3b and net income of $18.8b, prompting fresh interest in how the stock’s recent performance compares with its longer term record. See our latest analysis for Shell. Despite the latest figures, Shell’s share price has eased in the short term, with the stock down 6.3% over the past week and 12.3% over 90 days. The 1 year total shareholder return of 18.2% points to stronger, long term...
Narrative Update • Jun 07

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect ARC Deal And Middle East Risk

Shell's analyst price target edges higher to about £39 from about £38, as analysts factor the ARC Resources acquisition, revised commodity assumptions, and updated earnings and cash flow estimates into their models. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a mixed but generally constructive reassessment of Shell, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings as they update models for the ARC Resources acquisition and revised commodity assumptions.
Narrative Update • May 21

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect Middle East Risk Driven Cash Flows

Shell's analyst fair value estimate has increased by about £1.15 per share as analysts factor in higher cash flow expectations, modestly stronger revenue and margins, and updated P/E assumptions following recent price target changes and views on the ARC Resources deal. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Shell presents a mixed picture, with a cluster of higher price targets and rating upgrades sitting alongside fresh downgrades and trimmed targets.
Narrative Update • May 03

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect Middle East Risk Driven Cash Flows

Shell's analyst price target has been adjusted slightly lower to £37.02 from £37.17, as analysts weigh mixed rating actions and price target changes against updated assumptions for margins and future P/E levels. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Shell shows a split tape, with several firms lifting price targets while others turn more cautious or trim estimates.
Narrative Update • Apr 18

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect Middle East Supply Risk Premiums

Shell’s analyst fair value estimate has been revised higher from £34.65 to £37.17, as analysts factor in updated commodity price assumptions, refined revenue growth expectations, and slightly higher margin and P/E inputs following a mix of recent target hikes and downgrades across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Shell has been active, with several firms revising price targets and a mix of upgrades and downgrades.
New Narrative • Apr 15

Deepwater And LNG Expansion Will Reshape Earnings Power Over The Next Decade

Catalysts About Shell Shell is a large integrated energy company involved in oil and gas production, liquefied natural gas, refining, chemicals, power and low carbon energy solutions. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Apr 02

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect LNG Disruptions And Middle East Supply Risks

Shell's updated analyst price target has moved higher to £34.65 from £32.62, as analysts factor in revised oil and gas price assumptions, tighter projected crude balances linked to Middle East supply risks, and a slightly higher future P/E multiple, offset in part by more modest profit margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Shell shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets in response to commodity assumptions, geopolitical risks and company specific execution.
New Narrative • Apr 01

LNG Expansion And Aggressive Buybacks Will Increase Risk To Future Earnings Quality

Catalysts About Shell Shell is a large integrated energy company engaged in exploration, production, LNG, refining, chemicals, marketing and low carbon energy solutions. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Mar 18

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect LNG Exposure And Geopolitical Supply Risks

Shell's analyst price target has risen in the model as fair value moved from £31.76 to £32.62, with analysts pointing to higher oil and gas price forecasts, tighter expected crude balances, and LNG growth assumptions as key drivers behind recent upward target revisions across the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent research paints a mixed picture for Shell, with several price target increases alongside a few trims and a downgrade.
Narrative Update • Mar 04

SHEL: Future Returns Will Balance LNG Expansion With Cost Discipline And Asset Sales

Our analyst fair value estimate for Shell edges up from £30.96 to £31.76. This reflects a series of higher Street price targets in the £2,950 to £3,600 range, as analysts point to valuation support for integrated energy names and company specific drivers such as cost discipline, higher shareholder returns and LNG growth expectations.
Narrative Update • Feb 18

SHEL: Future Returns Will Balance LNG Ambitions With Refining And Asset Sales

Analysts have trimmed their average price target for Shell by about £0.07. This reflects slightly higher discount rate assumptions, a modestly lower fair value estimate, and updated views on growth, margins and future P/E after a mix of recent target cuts, raises and rating changes across the Street.
Narrative Update • Jan 22

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect LNG Strength And Refining Cash Generation

Our Shell fair value estimate edges up to €31.04 from €31.03 as analysts lift price targets across US dollar and GBp lines, pointing to expectations for resilient refining conditions, disciplined capital allocation and LNG driven growth targets, even as views on crude and valuation remain mixed. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts lifting US dollar and GBp targets point to confidence in Shell's ability to keep capital allocation disciplined, with a focus on cost control and shareholder returns that they view as supportive for equity value.
Narrative Update • Jan 08

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect Resilient Cash Flow And Shareholder Distributions

Our updated view on Shell reflects a small trim in fair value to €31.03 from €31.31, as analysts balance slightly softer growth and margin assumptions with higher price targets associated with resilient cash generation, tighter refining conditions, and a more disciplined focus on costs and shareholder returns. Analyst Commentary Street research on Shell is mixed, with several price target increases reflecting confidence in execution and cash generation, while a few more cautious voices highlight valuation and medium term growth constraints.
Analysis Article • Jan 06

Shell (LON:SHEL) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Narrative Update • Dec 19

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect Free Cash Flow Amid Buyback Funding Debate

Shell's analyst price target has edged lower by approximately $0.12, as analysts weigh still resilient free cash flow and recent target hikes against valuation concerns following the year-to-date rally, as well as medium-term growth and resource replenishment challenges. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a nuanced view on Shell, with a mix of target price increases and rating downgrades as the stock reprices higher and investors reassess medium term growth and capital return risks.
Narrative Update • Dec 05

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect Resilient Free Cash Flow Amid Capital Allocation Debate

Shell's analyst price target is nudged lower, with fair value edging down from about $31.78 to $31.43 per share. Analysts are balancing recent target hikes, which cite resilient free cash flow and strong positioning, against fresh downgrades that flag a less compelling valuation, slower medium term growth, and concerns over capital allocation.
Narrative Update • Nov 21

SHEL: Future Returns Will Reflect Resilient Cash Flow Amid Energy Sector Volatility

Shell's analyst price target has been raised, with new targets ranging as high as $91. Analysts point to resilient free cash flow, steady growth, and ongoing cost reductions as supporting factors for the upward revision of Shell’s valuation.
Narrative Update • Nov 06

SHEL: Future Performance Will Reflect Capital Returns and Energy Sector Uncertainties

Shell's analyst price target has increased from $80 to $82. Analysts cite stronger-than-expected operational and trading performance, improved profit margins, and a lower discount rate, which are supporting upward revisions in fair value estimates.
Analysis Article • Nov 02

Shell plc Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week saw the newest third-quarter earnings release from Shell plc ( LON:SHEL ), an important milestone in the...
Narrative Update • Oct 23

Analysts Weigh In on Shell Amid Mixed Outlook and Updated Valuation Targets

Shell's analyst price target saw a modest increase to $91 from $80, as analysts cite stronger-than-expected recent results and a continued focus on capital returns. This comes despite softer demand indicators and cash flow considerations.
Narrative Update • Oct 09

LNG Investments And Cost Cuts Will Support Future Energy Resilience

Shell's analyst price target has increased modestly to $87 from $82, as analysts cite stronger-than-expected Q3 performance and robust underlying operations as key drivers for the upward revision. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reveals a mix of optimism and caution regarding Shell’s outlook, as analysts assess the company’s operational momentum, balance sheet decisions, and capital allocation strategies following the latest quarterly updates.
Narrative Update • Sep 25

LNG Investments And Cost Cuts Will Support Future Energy Resilience

Shell’s price target has edged up to £30.50 as analysts remain broadly supportive, citing strong growth prospects and a favorable refining outlook despite some concerns about near-term momentum. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cited Shell's distinctive mix of growth, resource depth, and sustainable shareholder returns, with medium-term refining outlook becoming increasingly favorable.
Narrative Update • Sep 10

LNG Investments And Cost Cuts Will Support Future Energy Resilience

Shell’s consensus price target was slightly reduced to £30.10 as bullish sentiment on strong Q2 results and sector tailwinds was tempered by concerns over near-term momentum, resulting in minor downward revisions rather than a fundamental change in outlook. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight Shell’s robust second quarter results, emphasizing the company’s distinctive growth prospects, deep resource base, and commitment to sustainable shareholder returns.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

LSE:SHEL - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2028295,50922,71527,60450,2076
12/31/2027302,75124,34631,07752,2138
12/31/2026323,54028,12432,75656,3878
6/30/2026296,60125,97131,54749,140N/A
3/31/2026267,34218,75120,68839,644N/A
12/31/2025266,88617,83723,91642,863N/A
9/30/2025269,07514,63126,40546,590N/A
6/30/2025272,01113,60128,74949,067N/A
3/31/2025281,06913,51631,26950,638N/A
12/31/2024284,31216,09435,08654,687N/A
9/30/2024296,76215,63834,01754,091N/A
6/30/2024302,02518,39031,09751,740N/A
3/31/2024302,13918,00832,55053,362N/A
12/31/2023316,62019,35931,19854,191N/A
9/30/2023339,19129,29741,57664,027N/A
6/30/2023358,58928,99641,77364,233N/A
3/31/2023384,06943,90243,23467,758N/A
12/31/2022381,31442,30945,81468,414N/A
9/30/2022365,29143,36031,76054,178N/A
6/30/2022329,58536,17035,86757,664N/A
3/31/2022290,04321,55732,27351,625N/A
12/31/2021261,50420,10126,10445,104N/A
9/30/2021220,2124,62625,25243,222N/A
6/30/2021204,1915,56220,59737,600N/A
3/31/2021176,179-15,99611,34127,548N/A
12/31/2020180,543-21,68017,52034,105N/A
9/30/2020220,561-16,70219,99738,083N/A
6/30/2020263,132-11,31219,53439,932N/A
3/31/2020321,1719,817N/A48,399N/A
12/31/2019344,87715,842N/A42,178N/A
9/30/2019363,09920,468N/A53,934N/A
6/30/2019376,65720,428N/A53,774N/A
3/31/2019382,87923,454N/A52,243N/A
12/31/2018388,37923,352N/A53,085N/A
9/30/2018371,57321,569N/A38,339N/A
6/30/2018347,25219,817N/A33,829N/A
3/31/2018322,61815,338N/A35,614N/A
12/31/2017305,17912,977N/A35,650N/A
9/30/2017284,52410,711N/A37,545N/A
6/30/2017270,5497,999N/A38,455N/A
3/31/2017256,8337,629N/A29,462N/A
12/31/2016233,5914,575N/A20,615N/A
9/30/2016226,9703,973N/A16,868N/A
6/30/2016233,821-4,818N/A19,607N/A
3/31/2016247,808-2,007N/A23,365N/A
12/31/2015264,9601,939N/A29,810N/A
9/30/2015299,1881,595N/A33,995N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SHEL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6.8% per year).

Earnings vs Market: SHEL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SHEL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SHEL's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-1.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SHEL's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.3% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SHEL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.4%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/14 20:51
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/14 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Shell plc is covered by 56 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John EadeArgus Research Company
Alejandro VigilBanco Santander
Lucy HaskinsBarclays