Drax Group Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Drax Group's revenue is forecast to decline at 9.5% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 21.7% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 21.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 11.8% in 3 years.
Key information
21.7%
Earnings growth rate
21.84%
EPS growth rate
| Renewable Energy earnings growth | 8.8% |
| Revenue growth rate | -9.5% |
| Future return on equity | 11.81% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 17 Sep 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Aug 10
DRX: Future Cash Returns Look Set To Support Higher Upside
Drax Group's updated analyst price target reflects a mixed set of recent revisions, including the increase to £10.50 and reductions to about £8.14 that analysts link to adjusted fair value estimates, changes in projected profit margins and updated future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Drax Group highlights a mix of optimism and caution around the stock's valuation, profit potential and execution risks.Analysis Article • Aug 03
Drax Group plc Just Recorded A 21% Revenue Beat: Here's What Analysts Think
Shareholders might have noticed that Drax Group plc ( LON:DRX ) filed its half-year result this time last week. The...
Narrative Update • Jun 24
DRX: New Gas Capacity Will Support Long Term Cash Flows
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Drax Group to £8.16 from £9.23, citing updated assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. Their overall view on the stock remains broadly unchanged.Narrative Update • Jun 09
DRX: New Gas Capacity And Contracts Will Support Long Term Profitability
Analysts have lowered their price target on Drax Group to £8.16 from £9.23, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Drax has completed commissioning of the 299MW Hirwaun Power Station in South Wales and taken commercial control from Metlen Energy & Metals, the first of three Open Cycle Gas Turbine plants planned in England and Wales.
Narrative Update • May 26
DRX: Share Price Strength Will Leave Little Protection If Projects Disappoint
Analysts have raised their price target for Drax Group by £0.06 to £9.50, citing a slightly higher fair value estimate along with updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue trends, profit margins and future P/E, while viewing the stock as fairly priced after recent share price strength. Analyst Commentary Recent street research reflects a more cautious tone around Drax Group, with some bearish analysts taking the view that the current share price already captures much of the near term upside.Narrative Update • Apr 29
DRX: Neutral Stance As Battery Agreements And Buybacks Support Future Returns
Analysts have edged their average price target for Drax Group up by £0.50 to £9.50, reflecting recent downgrades to more neutral ratings. They still acknowledge long term value opportunities and current fair pricing after the share price rally.Narrative Update • Apr 15
DRX: Neutral Outlook As Battery Expansion And Buybacks Shape Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their price targets for Drax Group higher to about £9.50 per share, reflecting slightly stronger revenue assumptions and a modestly lower discount rate. Recent rating changes suggest the stock is now viewed as more fairly valued after its recent share price move.Narrative Update • Mar 31
DRX: Rich P/E Leaves Little Protection If Long Term Projects Disappoint
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Drax Group slightly higher, with the implied price target moving from about £7.35 to roughly £7.42. Recent research highlights incremental improvements in profit margin assumptions and valuation multiples, even as near term revenue expectations remain cautious.Narrative Update • Mar 17
DRX: Future Returns Will Rely On Execution Risks At Rich P/E
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Drax Group modestly higher, alongside a raised price target to £9.50. This reflects updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue trends, margins and future P/E after recent downgrades that frame the shares as more fairly priced on current information.Narrative Update • Mar 03
DRX: Neutral Stance As Battery Agreements And Buybacks Shape Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their price target on Drax Group higher to £9.50 from £9.00, reflecting updated views on revenue trends, margins and future P/E, even as recent research updates describe the shares as fairly priced with a more neutral stance. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Drax Group points to a more balanced view, with higher price targets sitting alongside rating cuts to neutral stances.Narrative Update • Feb 17
DRX: Future Returns Will Depend On Rich P/E Amid Softer Margins
The analyst price target for Drax Group has shifted modestly, with the updated fair value estimate moving from £6.80 to about £7.02, as analysts factor in a slightly higher discount rate, softer revenue and margin assumptions, and a higher expected future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research highlights a more cautious tone around Drax Group, with some bearish analysts questioning how much upside remains after the latest fair value adjustment.Narrative Update • Feb 03
DRX: New Low Carbon Contract Will Support Earnings With Sustainability Trade Offs
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Drax Group from £8.24 to £9.29, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue trends, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Drax Group signed an agreement with the Low Carbon Contracts Company for a low carbon dispatchable contract for difference covering all four biomass units at Drax Power Station from April 2027 to March 2031, with a strike price of £109.90/MWh in 2012 real terms (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Jan 28
Are Drax Group plc (LON:DRX) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Drax Group fair value estimate is UK£7.10 Current share price...Narrative Update • Jan 20
DRX: New Low Carbon CfD Will Support Higher Long Term Profitability
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Drax Group from £10.63 to £11.20, citing updated assumptions that combine a slightly lower discount rate with a higher profit margin outlook, while still factoring in a revenue decline and a largely unchanged future P/E multiple. What's in the News Drax Group signed an agreement with the Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC) for a low carbon dispatchable Contracts for Difference (CfD) covering all four biomass units at Drax Power Station for April 2027 to March 2031, with a strike price of £109.90/MWh in 2012 real terms (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 05
DRX: Future Returns Will Rely On Lower-Priced Low Carbon Contract
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Drax Group slightly to reflect revised assumptions, including a fair value adjustment to £6.80, updated revenue and profit margin expectations, and a lower future P/E estimate. What's in the News Drax has signed a low carbon dispatchable Contract for Difference with the Low Carbon Contracts Company covering all four biomass units at Drax Power Station from April 2027 to March 2031, with a strike price of £109.90/MWh based on 2012 real prices (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Dec 25
Insufficient Growth At Drax Group plc (LON:DRX) Hampers Share Price
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7x Drax Group plc ( LON:DRX ) may be sending very bullish signals at the...Narrative Update • Dec 14
DRX: Future Returns Will Depend On Lower-Priced Low Carbon Contract
Analysts have marginally trimmed their price target on Drax Group, citing slightly weaker revenue growth and profit margin expectations that outweigh a modest uplift in future valuation multiples. This reduces fair value by around £0.04 per share to approximately £6.85.Narrative Update • Nov 24
DRX: New CfD Agreement Will Drive Up Power Generation Profitability
Analysts have raised their price target for Drax Group from £8.12 to £8.24. They cite slight improvements in discount rates and revenue projections, despite a more conservative outlook on profit margins and future valuation metrics.Narrative Update • Nov 09
DRX: New Biomass Contract Will Drive Power Generation Momentum Forward
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Drax Group, lowering the fair value estimate from £8.39 to £8.12. This change is based on adjustments to expected growth rates and financial metrics.Narrative Update • Oct 26
Dividends And Share Buybacks Will Shape Returns Amid Shifting Policy Risks
Drax Group Analyst Price Target Sees Marginal Adjustment Analysts have made a slight downward revision to Drax Group's price target, adjusting it by a few pence. Minor changes to the discount rate and future profit assumptions influenced their updated valuation.Narrative Update • Oct 12
Government CfD And Renewables Will Drive Growth Amid Pellet Risks
Analysts have revised their price target for Drax Group downward, lowering the estimated fair value from £8.58 to £8.39 per share. This change reflects updated outlooks on the company's profitability and growth prospects.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Government CfD And Renewables Will Drive Growth Amid Pellet Risks
Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Drax Group due to anticipated value creation from UK grid intermittency, upcoming share price catalysts, and a possible £200M share buyback extension; however, the consensus price target remains unchanged at £8.58. Analyst Commentary Expectation of increased value creation for Drax as grid intermittency rises in the UK power sector.Analysis Article • May 26
Drax Group (LON:DRX) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Analysis Article • Mar 13
Broker Revenue Forecasts For Drax Group plc (LON:DRX) Are Surging Higher
Drax Group plc ( LON:DRX ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial...
New Narrative • Mar 02
Investments In FlexGen And BECCS Will Impact Future Earnings, But Policy Risks Persist
Strategic investments in flexible generation and energy solutions are set to enhance post-2027 earnings and revenue through expanded capacity and efficiency.Analysis Article • Jan 20
Should You Investigate Drax Group plc (LON:DRX) At UK£6.30?
While Drax Group plc ( LON:DRX ) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a lot of attention from a...Analysis Article • Dec 20
Is Now The Time To Put Drax Group (LON:DRX) On Your Watchlist?
It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...Analysis Article • Nov 20
Drax Group plc's (LON:DRX) Earnings Are Not Doing Enough For Some Investors
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 3.7x Drax Group plc ( LON:DRX ) may be sending very bullish signals at the...Analysis Article • Sep 24
Drax Group (LON:DRX) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Analysis Article • Aug 31
What Is Drax Group plc's (LON:DRX) Share Price Doing?
Drax Group plc ( LON:DRX ), might not be a large cap stock, but it led the LSE gainers with a relatively large price...Analysis Article • Jul 29
Drax Group plc (LON:DRX) Surges 31% Yet Its Low P/E Is No Reason For Excitement
Drax Group plc ( LON:DRX ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 31% after a shaky period beforehand...Analysis Article • Apr 24
What Does Drax Group plc's (LON:DRX) Share Price Indicate?
Drax Group plc ( LON:DRX ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a significant share price rise of 22% in...Analysis Article • Apr 09
Here's Why Drax Group (LON:DRX) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 4,579 | 244 | N/A | 548 | 7 |
| 12/31/2027 | 4,771 | 185 | 863 | 964 | 7 |
| 12/31/2026 | 5,415 | 282 | 265 | 371 | 7 |
| 6/30/2026 | 5,225 | 19 | 273 | 529 | N/A |
| 3/31/2026 | 5,308 | 46 | 395 | 670 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 5,391 | 73 | 516 | 810 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 5,521 | 240 | 514 | 830 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 5,651 | 408 | 511 | 850 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 5,907 | 467 | 492 | 855 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 6,163 | 527 | 472 | 860 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 6,581 | 590 | 436 | 868 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 7,000 | 654 | 401 | 876 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 7,367 | 608 | 398 | 856 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 7,733 | 562 | 395 | 836 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 7,921 | 373 | 232 | 578 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 8,110 | 184 | 70 | 320 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 7,943 | 135 | 51 | 264 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 7,775 | 85 | 33 | 208 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 7,123 | 148 | 70 | 272 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 6,471 | 211 | 106 | 335 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 5,780 | 133 | 102 | 321 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 5,088 | 56 | 97 | 307 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 4,695 | -35 | 79 | 274 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 4,302 | -125 | 61 | 241 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 4,273 | -160 | 97 | 273 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 4,245 | -195 | 132 | 306 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 4,352 | -89 | 233 | 395 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 4,410 | -49 | N/A | 404 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 4,468 | -10 | N/A | 413 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 4,553 | 14 | N/A | 407 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 4,393 | 28 | N/A | 399 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 4,311 | 24 | N/A | 355 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 4,229 | 20 | N/A | 311 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 4,091 | -33 | N/A | 271 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 3,952 | -86 | N/A | 231 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 3,818 | -127 | N/A | 273 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 3,684 | -168 | N/A | 315 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 3,474 | -104 | N/A | 276 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 3,264 | -40 | N/A | 236 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 3,107 | 77 | N/A | 214 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 2,950 | 194 | N/A | 191 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 2,995 | 180 | N/A | 162 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 3,040 | 166 | N/A | 133 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 3,053 | 111 | N/A | 141 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 3,065 | 56 | N/A | 148 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 3,062 | 115 | N/A | 178 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: DRX's forecast earnings growth (21.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.6%).
Earnings vs Market: DRX's earnings (21.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the UK market (11.2% per year).
High Growth Earnings: DRX's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: DRX's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-9.5% per year).
High Growth Revenue: DRX's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-9.5% per year).
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: DRX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.8%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/17 17:45 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/17 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Drax Group plc is covered by 26 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Peter Bisztyga | Barclays |
| Dominic Nash | Barclays |
| Peter Crampton | Barclays |