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Mercari, Inc.TSE:4385 Stock Report

Market Cap JP¥372.9b
Share Price
JP¥2.27k
My Fair Value
JP¥2.69k
15.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
1Y-5.2%
7D3.8%
Portfolio Value
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Mercari, Inc.

TSE:4385 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥372.9b

Mercari (4385) Stock Overview

Plans, develops, and operates Mercari marketplace applications in Japan and the United States. More details

4385 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation5/6
Future Growth2/6
Past Performance4/6
Financial Health4/6
Dividends0/6

Rewards

Trading at 69% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 3.68% per year

Earnings grew by 94% over the past year

Trading at good value compared to peers and industry

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Volatile share price over the past 3 months compared to the JP market


4385 Community Fair Values

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See what others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.

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Mercari

AI And Circular Economy Trends Will Transform Resale Markets

Key Takeaways AI-driven transformation, product acceleration, and fintech integration are set to boost operational efficiency, user engagement, and expand high-margin, capital-light revenue streams. International growth, cultural shifts favoring resale, and disciplined capital allocation position Mercari for sustained global market leadership and enhanced shareholder returns.
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JP¥3.5k
FV
35.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
8.91%
Revenue growth p.a.
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Mercari

Escalating Compliance Costs And Fierce Competition Will Crush Growth

Key Takeaways Slowing growth, escalating costs, and intensifying competition threaten Mercari's profitability and undermine its long-term revenue outlook. Demographic changes and regulatory challenges are likely to structurally limit future marketplace volume and growth opportunities.
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JP¥1.98k
FV
14.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
4.93%
Revenue growth p.a.
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Mercari

Advanced AI And International Expansion Will Drive Future Success

Key Takeaways AI-driven automation, fintech expansion, and cross-border initiatives aim to boost operational efficiency, user growth, and new revenue streams for Mercari. Shifting consumer preferences for resale and recent U.S. profitability position Mercari for increased platform activity, diversification, and sustained earnings growth.
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JP¥2.71k
FV
16.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
6.63%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
1users have followed this narrative
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Mercari, Inc. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for Mercari
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceJP¥2,266.00
52 Week HighJP¥2,871.00
52 Week LowJP¥1,631.00
Beta0.98
1 Month Change-1.78%
3 Month Change-4.61%
1 Year Change-5.17%
3 Year Change2.63%
5 Year Change-53.76%
Change since IPO-57.25%

Recent News & Updates

Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Mercari (TSE:4385)

Oct 04
Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Mercari (TSE:4385)

Mercari, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 46%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Aug 08
Mercari, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 46%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Here's Why Mercari (TSE:4385) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Aug 06
Here's Why Mercari (TSE:4385) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Recent updates

Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Mercari (TSE:4385)

Oct 04
Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Mercari (TSE:4385)

Mercari, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 46%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Aug 08
Mercari, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 46%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Here's Why Mercari (TSE:4385) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Aug 06
Here's Why Mercari (TSE:4385) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

The Price Is Right For Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385)

Jul 21
The Price Is Right For Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385)

Is There An Opportunity With Mercari, Inc.'s (TSE:4385) 33% Undervaluation?

Jul 07
Is There An Opportunity With Mercari, Inc.'s (TSE:4385) 33% Undervaluation?

Mercari, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

May 10
Mercari, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

Here's Why Mercari (TSE:4385) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Apr 30
Here's Why Mercari (TSE:4385) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Is There Now An Opportunity In Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385)?

Apr 16
Is There Now An Opportunity In Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385)?

Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385) Shares Could Be 30% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Apr 03
Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385) Shares Could Be 30% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For Mercari's (TSE:4385) Returns On Capital

Mar 07
There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For Mercari's (TSE:4385) Returns On Capital

Concerns Surrounding Mercari's (TSE:4385) Performance

Feb 21
Concerns Surrounding Mercari's (TSE:4385) Performance
User avatar

Transitioning Hallo To Paid Service Will Generate New Revenue Streams

Enhancing user experience and implementing user safety measures may boost engagement, trust, and retention, positively impacting revenue and margins.

Mercari, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Feb 09
Mercari, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Mercari, Inc.'s (TSE:4385) 36% Share Price Surge

Feb 07
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Mercari, Inc.'s (TSE:4385) 36% Share Price Surge

Here's Why Mercari (TSE:4385) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

Jan 07
Here's Why Mercari (TSE:4385) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

An Intrinsic Calculation For Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385) Suggests It's 39% Undervalued

Dec 24
An Intrinsic Calculation For Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385) Suggests It's 39% Undervalued

Why We're Not Concerned Yet About Mercari, Inc.'s (TSE:4385) 27% Share Price Plunge

Nov 08
Why We're Not Concerned Yet About Mercari, Inc.'s (TSE:4385) 27% Share Price Plunge

Mercari (TSE:4385) Shareholders Will Want The ROCE Trajectory To Continue

Oct 24
Mercari (TSE:4385) Shareholders Will Want The ROCE Trajectory To Continue

Mercari (TSE:4385) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues

Aug 20
Mercari (TSE:4385) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues

Mercari, Inc. Just Recorded A 16% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Aug 16
Mercari, Inc. Just Recorded A 16% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Is There Now An Opportunity In Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385)?

Aug 06
Is There Now An Opportunity In Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385)?

Mercari, Inc.'s (TSE:4385) P/E Is On The Mark

Jul 23
Mercari, Inc.'s (TSE:4385) P/E Is On The Mark

Is Mercari (TSE:4385) A Risky Investment?

Apr 16
Is Mercari (TSE:4385) A Risky Investment?

Mercari's (TSE:4385) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher

Feb 26
Mercari's (TSE:4385) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher

Shareholder Returns

4385JP Multiline RetailJP Market
7D3.8%-0.2%-0.8%
1Y-5.2%24.2%17.1%

Return vs Industry: 4385 underperformed the JP Multiline Retail industry which returned 24.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 4385 underperformed the JP Market which returned 18.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 4385's price volatile compared to industry and market?
4385 volatility
4385 Average Weekly Movement6.4%
Multiline Retail Industry Average Movement3.4%
Market Average Movement3.6%
10% most volatile stocks in JP Market7.7%
10% least volatile stocks in JP Market2.0%

Stable Share Price: 4385's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months compared to the JP market.

Volatility Over Time: 4385's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of JP stocks.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
20132,159Shintaro Yamadawww.mercari.com

Mercari, Inc. plans, develops, and operates Mercari marketplace applications in Japan and the United States. The company also engages in the payment, finance, and cryptoasset related businesses. Mercari, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

Mercari, Inc. Fundamentals Summary

How do Mercari's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
4385 fundamental statistics
Market capJP¥372.87b
Earnings (TTM)JP¥26.11b
Revenue (TTM)JP¥192.63b
14.3x
P/E Ratio
1.9x
P/S Ratio

Is 4385 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
4385 income statement (TTM)
RevenueJP¥192.63b
Cost of RevenueJP¥54.37b
Gross ProfitJP¥138.26b
Other ExpensesJP¥112.15b
EarningsJP¥26.11b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2025

Next Earnings Date

Nov 07, 2025

Earnings per share (EPS)158.70
Gross Margin71.77%
Net Profit Margin13.56%
Debt/Equity Ratio191.6%

How did 4385 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/10/18 22:58
End of Day Share Price 2025/10/17 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Mercari, Inc. is covered by 22 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yoshitaka NagaoBofA Global Research
Junko YamamuraCitigroup Inc
Keiichi YoneshimaCitigroup Inc