Reported Earnings • Aug 01
First quarter 2027 earnings released: EPS: JP¥9.76 (vs JP¥7.68 in 1Q 2026) First quarter 2027 results: EPS: JP¥9.76 (up from JP¥7.68 in 1Q 2026). Revenue: JP¥52.2b (up 2.7% from 1Q 2026). Net income: JP¥939.0m (up 27% from 1Q 2026). Profit margin: 1.8% (up from 1.5% in 1Q 2026). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 17% per year. Declared Dividend • Jul 25
Final dividend of JP¥19.50 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥19.50. Ex-date: 29th September 2026 Payment date: 2nd December 2026 Dividend yield will be 4.0%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (32% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 12% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. Earnings per share has remained steady over the last 5 years. Unless this trend deteriorates, it should provide adequate earnings cover for the dividend. Announcement • Jun 26
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2027 Results on Jul 31, 2026 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2027 results on Jul 31, 2026 Reported Earnings • May 15
Full year 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥120 (vs JP¥91.25 in FY 2025) Full year 2026 results: EPS: JP¥120 (up from JP¥91.25 in FY 2025). Revenue: JP¥218.1b (up 3.4% from FY 2025). Net income: JP¥11.5b (up 31% from FY 2025). Profit margin: 5.3% (up from 4.2% in FY 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • May 13
Belluna Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2026 Belluna Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2026. Announcement • May 09
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 13, 2026 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results on May 13, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥15.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2026. Payment date: 29 June 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 25% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.4%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.4%). Reported Earnings • Jan 31
Third quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥45.97 (vs JP¥28.98 in 3Q 2025) Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥45.97 (up from JP¥28.98 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥66.4b (up 7.9% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥4.42b (up 59% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 6.7% (up from 4.5% in 3Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 13% per year. Declared Dividend • Dec 03
First half dividend of JP¥15.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥15.00. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 29th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 3.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (30% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 9.1% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. Earnings per share has grown by 6.2% over the last 5 years. Unless this trend reverses, it should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Nov 29
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2026 Results on Jan 30, 2026 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2026 results on Jan 30, 2026 Reported Earnings • Nov 01
Second quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥26.88 (vs JP¥16.28 in 2Q 2025) Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥26.88 (up from JP¥16.28 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥47.2b (up 3.1% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥2.59b (up 65% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 5.5% (up from 3.4% in 2Q 2025). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 1% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 14% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥15.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2025. Payment date: 02 December 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 33% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.9%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.3%). Announcement • Sep 02
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Oct 31, 2025 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Oct 31, 2025 Reported Earnings • Aug 02
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥7.68 (vs JP¥10.28 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥7.68 (down from JP¥10.28 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥50.8b (down 1.1% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥739.0m (down 26% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 1.5% (down from 1.9% in 1Q 2025). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 10% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Declared Dividend • Jul 09
Final dividend of JP¥15.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥15.00. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 2nd December 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (39% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 9.1% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. Earnings per share has grown by 8.6% over the last 5 years. Unless this trend reverses, it should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Jun 06
Belluna Co., Ltd. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Years Ending March 2027 and March 2028 Belluna Co., Ltd. provided earnings guidance for the fiscal years ending March 2027 and March 2028. For the fiscal year ending March 2027, the company expects total net sales of JPY 229.60 billion and operating profit of JPY 15.00 billion.
For the fiscal year ending March 2028, the company expects total net sales of JPY 253.10 billion and operating profit of JPY 16.50 billion. Announcement • Jun 04
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Jul 31, 2025 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Jul 31, 2025 New Risk • May 25
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by cash flows. The company is paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Dividend yield: 3.3% This is considered a minor risk. Dividends are ultimately paid out of the company's available cash reserves. Companies that pay out too much of their cash flow are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If cash flow growth slows or cash flows fall, then there may not be enough cash reserves to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to take on debt to maintain the dividend. This risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by earnings, however, cash flows are generally more important. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (7.6% operating cash flow to total debt). Earnings have declined by 6.4% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Reported Earnings • May 15
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥91.25 (up from JP¥60.39 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥210.9b (up 1.2% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥8.80b (up 51% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.2% (up from 2.8% in FY 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 10%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 16% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 11% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • May 13
Belluna Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2025 Belluna Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2025. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥14.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 27 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 39% and the cash payout ratio is 76%. Trailing yield: 3.0%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.5%). Announcement • Mar 04
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 13, 2025 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on May 13, 2025 Declared Dividend • Feb 04
Dividend of JP¥14.50 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥14.50. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 27th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.3%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (16% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (76% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 8.8% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to decline by 82% to shift the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range, which is more than the 4.5% EPS decline seen over the last 5 years. Reported Earnings • Feb 01
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥28.98 (vs JP¥18.80 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥28.98 (up from JP¥18.80 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥61.5b (up 2.2% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥2.79b (up 53% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.5% (up from 3.0% in 3Q 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 23% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 5% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Dec 03
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Jan 31, 2025 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Jan 31, 2025 Reported Earnings • Nov 02
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥16.28 (vs JP¥19.42 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥16.28 (down from JP¥19.42 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥45.8b (up 3.4% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥1.57b (down 16% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 3.4% (down from 4.2% in 2Q 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 25% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 2% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥14.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 September 2024. Payment date: 02 December 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 36% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 4.1%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). Announcement • Aug 29
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Oct 31, 2024 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Oct 31, 2024 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 06
Now 23% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 8.7% to JP¥685. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥555, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 23%. Reported Earnings • Aug 02
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥10.28 (vs JP¥14.32 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥10.28 (down from JP¥14.32 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥51.4b (flat on 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥994.0m (down 28% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 1.9% (down from 2.7% in 1Q 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 23% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 6% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Jul 31
Belluna Co., Ltd. (TSE:9997) announces an Equity Buyback for 480,000 shares, representing 0.49% for ¥480 million. Belluna Co., Ltd. (TSE:9997) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase 480,000 shares, representing 0.49% of the outstanding shares for ¥480 million. The purpose of the program is to implement a flexible capital policy in response to changes in the business environment and improve capital efficiency. The program will run until September 30, 2024. As of June 30, 2024, the company had 97,244,472 issued shares (excluding treasury stock) and 545,469 shares in treasury. Announcement • Jun 29
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Jul 31, 2024 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Jul 31, 2024 Reported Earnings • May 16
Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥60.39 (vs JP¥76.71 in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥60.39 (down from JP¥76.71 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥208.3b (down 1.9% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥5.84b (down 21% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.8% (down from 3.5% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 20% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 16% per year. Announcement • May 15
Belluna Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2024 Belluna Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2024. Announcement • Apr 21
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on May 13, 2024 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on May 13, 2024 New Risk • Mar 21
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 0.2% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (6.4% operating cash flow to total debt). Earnings have declined by 0.2% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥10.25 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 01 July 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 28% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.3%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.2%). Reported Earnings • Feb 02
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥18.80 (vs JP¥26.20 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥18.80 (down from JP¥26.20 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥60.2b (down 2.4% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥1.82b (down 28% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.0% (down from 4.1% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Multiline Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 15% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 16% per year. Announcement • Nov 29
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Jan 31, 2024 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Jan 31, 2024 Reported Earnings • Nov 02
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥19.42 (vs JP¥15.17 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥19.42 (up from JP¥15.17 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥44.3b (down 2.4% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥1.88b (up 28% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.2% (up from 3.2% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.1% growth forecast for the Multiline Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year. Announcement • Sep 28
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Oct 31, 2023 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Oct 31, 2023 Upcoming Dividend • Sep 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥10.25 per share at 2.9% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 September 2023. Payment date: 04 December 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 26% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.9%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.2%). Reported Earnings • Aug 01
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥14.32 (vs JP¥14.29 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥14.32 (up from JP¥14.29 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥51.8b (down 3.0% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥1.39b (flat on 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 2.7% (up from 2.6% in 1Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.9% growth forecast for the Multiline Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 11% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Price Target Changed • Jul 04
Price target decreased by 19% to JP¥700 Down from JP¥860, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥709. Stock is down 6.1% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥97.20 for next year compared to JP¥76.71 last year. Announcement • Jun 30
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Jul 31, 2023 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Jul 31, 2023 Reported Earnings • May 17
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥76.71 (down from JP¥106 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥212.4b (down 3.5% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥7.42b (down 27% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 3.5% (down from 4.6% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 18%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.4% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Multiline Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 15% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • May 14
Belluna Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 28, 2023 Belluna Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 28, 2023. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥10.00 per share at 2.9% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2023. Payment date: 29 June 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 24% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.9%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (). Reported Earnings • Feb 01
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥26.20 (vs JP¥46.91 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥26.20 (down from JP¥46.91 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥61.7b (down 1.8% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥2.53b (down 44% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 4.1% (down from 7.2% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.7% growth forecast for the Online Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Nov 27
Belluna Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Jan 31, 2023 Belluna Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Jan 31, 2023 Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥15.17 (vs JP¥16.00 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥15.17 (down from JP¥16.00 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥45.3b (down 3.3% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.47b (down 5.2% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.2% (down from 3.3% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.5% growth forecast for the Online Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to JP¥860 Down from JP¥1,700, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 25% above last closing price of JP¥687. Stock is down 6.4% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥99.30 for next year compared to JP¥106 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Junko Hamamoto was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Nov 02
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥15.17 (vs JP¥16.00 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥15.17 (down from JP¥16.00 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥45.3b (down 3.3% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.47b (down 5.2% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.2% (down from 3.3% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.7% growth forecast for the Online Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buying Opportunity • Sep 28
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 7.5%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥881, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.2% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 15%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 5.6% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 10% in the next 2 years. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥10.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2022. Payment date: 05 December 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 19% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.8%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.4%). Buying Opportunity • Sep 01
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 8.6%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥924, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.2% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 15%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 8.0% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 13% in the next 2 years. Buying Opportunity • Aug 01
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 3.0%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥950, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.2% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 15%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 8.0% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 13% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Jul 31
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥14.29 (vs JP¥17.20 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥14.29 (down from JP¥17.20 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥53.4b (down 9.3% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.38b (down 17% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 2.6% (down from 2.8% in 1Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 4.0%, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Jul 15
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 9.9%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,006, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.6% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 11%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.6% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 4.6% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 01
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from JP¥223.5b to JP¥221.0b. EPS estimate rose from JP¥98.30 to JP¥110. Net income forecast to grow 3.9% next year vs 7.0% growth forecast for Online Retail industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥860 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 3.3% to JP¥743 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 16
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥106 (down from JP¥114 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥220.1b (up 6.6% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥10.2b (down 7.5% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 4.6% (down from 5.3% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 16%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 1.5%, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target decreased to JP¥860 Down from JP¥1,700, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 19% above last closing price of JP¥720. Stock is down 38% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥91.00 for next year compared to JP¥114 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 2 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 9 non-independent directors. Director, General Manager of Planning Division & Executive Officer Ryogo Takahashi was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥9.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2022. Payment date: 28 June 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 8.1% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.6%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.1%). Reported Earnings • Feb 02
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: JP¥46.90 (down from JP¥58.93 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: JP¥62.8b (flat on 3Q 2021). Net income: JP¥4.54b (down 20% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 7.2% (down from 9.0% in 3Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 4.2%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 2.7%, compared to a 18% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 22
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 28% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥235.8b to JP¥223.5b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥123 per share to JP¥88.90 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 21% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Online Retail industry in Japan . Consensus price target down from JP¥1,700 to JP¥860. Share price fell 4.6% to JP¥682 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥9.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2021. Payment date: 04 December 2021. Trailing yield: 2.3%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (0.9%). Reported Earnings • Aug 03
First quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS JP¥17.20 (vs JP¥15.44 in 1Q 2021) The company reported a solid first quarter result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. First quarter 2022 results: Revenue: JP¥58.9b (up 21% from 1Q 2021). Net income: JP¥1.66b (up 12% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 2.8% (down from 3.1% in 1Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 03
Consensus revenue estimates increase to JP¥237.4b The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from JP¥215.0b to JP¥237.4b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥121 to JP¥123 per share. Net income forecast to grow 7.8% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Online Retail industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥1,700 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥983 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 15
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS JP¥114 (vs JP¥60.62 in FY 2020) The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: JP¥206.5b (up 15% from FY 2020). Net income: JP¥11.0b (up 88% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 5.3% (up from 3.3% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 24
Consensus EPS estimates increase to JP¥110 The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has improved. 2021 revenue forecast increased from JP¥198.0b to JP¥201.5b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥99.30 to JP¥110 per share. Net income forecast to grow 16% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Online Retail industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥1,500 to JP¥1,700. Share price was steady at JP¥1,268 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥8.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2021. Payment date: 26 June 2021. Trailing yield: 1.3%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (2.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (0.7%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 12
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥1,266, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 12.4x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 10.7x. This compares to an average P/E of 23x in the Online Retail industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders over the past three years are 5.4%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 11
New 90-day high: JP¥1,250 The company is up 34% from its price of JP¥934 on 11 December 2020. The Japanese market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Online Retail industry, which is up 9.0% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Feb 02
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS JP¥58.93 (vs JP¥30.17 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: JP¥63.0b (up 23% from 3Q 2020). Net income: JP¥5.70b (up 95% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 9.0% (up from 5.7% in 3Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 7% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 02
Revenue beats expectations, earnings disappoint Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 6.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 21%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 5.7%, compared to a 18% growth forecast for the Online Retail industry in Japan. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 18
New 90-day high: JP¥1,164 The company is up 18% from its price of JP¥986 on 20 October 2020. The Japanese market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Online Retail industry, which is down 8.0% over the same period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 30
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥1,134, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 15.4x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 13.3x. This compares to an average P/E of 27x in the Online Retail industry in Japan. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 14%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 25
New 90-day high: JP¥1,065 The company is up 11% from its price of JP¥959 on 25 September 2020. The Japanese market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Online Retail industry, which is down 7.0% over the same period. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 18
Analysts increase EPS estimates to JP¥99.30 The 2021 consensus revenue estimate increased from JP¥187.5b to JP¥198.0b. The earnings per share estimate also received an upgrade from JP¥85.90 to JP¥99.30 for the same period. Net income is expected to grow by 46% next year compared to 21% growth forecast for the Online Retail industry in Japan. The consensus price target increased from JP¥1,300 to JP¥1,500. Share price is up 12% to JP¥1,044 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Dec 01
Price target raised to JP¥1,300 Up from JP¥550, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. The new target price is 36% above the current share price of JP¥954. As of last close, the stock is up 36% over the past year. Announcement • Oct 10
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