ASML Holding Future Growth
Future criteria checks 5/6
ASML Holding is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 21.5% and 16.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 24.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 59.8% in 3 years.
Key information
21.5%
Earnings growth rate
24.40%
EPS growth rate
| Semiconductor earnings growth | 24.8% |
| Revenue growth rate | 16.2% |
| Future return on equity | 59.82% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 11 Sep 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
New Narrative • Sep 09
ASML is Perhaps Europe’s Best Business, But Not at Any Price.
There are companies where investors spend most of their time debating whether the competitive advantage will still exist ten years from now. With ASML, that is the wrong question.
New Narrative • Sep 03
ASML — The Monopoly Bottleneck of the AI Era
ASML is the ultimate bottleneck of the AI era: a near-total monopoly on EUV lithography, the machines without which advanced chips cannot be made. Every AI chip roadmap runs through ASML.
Narrative Update • Sep 03
ASML: AI Capacity Buildout And Full Backlog Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for ASML Holding from €1,838.02 to €2,032.76, citing higher assumed revenue growth and profit margins that are consistent with recent price target increases and research suggesting the recent share selloff was unjustified. Analyst Commentary Recent research on ASML Holding points to a broadly supportive stance from major firms, even after the recent share price selloff.
Narrative Update • Aug 13
ASML: Lofty AI Tool Expectations Will Face Intensifying China Competition Risk
Analysts lifted their fair value estimate for ASML Holding from about €1,151 to roughly €1,320 as they updated their models to reflect stronger order visibility, higher projected revenue growth and margin assumptions, and continued capacity expansion for EUV and DUV tools. Analyst Commentary Recent research highlights a broadly constructive stance on ASML Holding, with many firms lifting price targets following what they describe as strong order intake, extended backlog visibility and higher expectations for EUV and DUV capacity over the coming years.New Narrative • Aug 02
ASML’s China Sell-Off Looks Overdone, Yet The Shares Are Not Cheap
Investors have recently been forced to process two very different versions of ASML. The first is a company whose demand outlook is improving fast enough for management to lift 2026 sales guidance to €43–45bn and gross-margin guidance to 54–56%.
Narrative Update • Jul 30
ASML: AI-Driven Tool Demand And Capacity Expansion Will Support Future Earnings Power
The analyst fair value estimate for ASML Holding has been raised from €1,600 to €2,500, reflecting higher assumed revenue growth, slightly stronger profit margins, and a series of recent analyst price target increases that emphasize order strength in EUV and DUV tools despite concerns about emerging Chinese competition. Analyst Commentary Recent research commentary on ASML Holding has been heavily focused on the stock reaction to headline risk, the capacity outlook for EUV and DUV tools, and a broad round of higher price targets.Narrative Update • Jul 16
ASML: AI Chip Spending And Full Backlog Will Drive Future Upside
ASML Holding's fair value estimate has been adjusted higher from €1,687.39 to €1,838.02. This change reflects analysts' higher price targets and updated assumptions around stronger EUV demand, expanding capacity, and improved long term margin expectations.Narrative Update • Jul 02
ASML: AI And Memory Demand Will Support Backlog Despite Export And Execution Risks
ASML Holding's updated analyst fair value has moved from €1,559 to €1,687 as analysts factor in fuller order books, higher long term revenue growth and margins, and support their higher price targets with expectations for sustained wafer fab equipment demand and expanded EUV capacity into the late 2020s. Analyst Commentary Recent research on ASML Holding shows a cluster of higher valuation targets, with bullish analysts leaning on fuller order books, extended wafer fab equipment spending assumptions, and higher expected extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, capacity over the next several years.Narrative Update • Jun 18
ASML: AI And Memory Demand Will Offset China And Execution Risks
ASML Holding's analyst fair value estimate has been raised from €1,506.91 to €1,559.36. This reflects updated views from analysts who point to higher assumed future revenue growth, a slightly higher future P/E multiple and ongoing capacity expansion in extreme ultraviolet tools as key drivers behind the revised price targets around €1,900 cited in recent research.Narrative Update • Jun 04
ASML: Future AI And Memory Demand Will Balance China And Cost Risks
ASML Holding's fair value estimate is updated to €1,506.91 from €1,482.76, reflecting analysts' higher price targets around €1,660 to €1,900 and their focus on stronger lithography demand, capacity expansion potential, and the company's positioning in memory and North America. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts are lifting price targets on ASML into a range around €1,660 to €1,900 and about US$2,200, which points to higher implied expectations for execution and earnings power than previously embedded in many models.Narrative Update • May 20
ASML: Future Memory And North America Demand Will Drive Upside
Analysts have increased ASML Holding's implied price target by €19.34, citing its unique position in European semiconductors and expectations for sustained lithography demand, particularly in memory and in North America. Analyst Commentary Recent research on ASML highlights a cluster of upward price target revisions, with bullish analysts focusing on the company’s position in lithography tools and its exposure to memory and North American customers.Narrative Update • May 03
ASML: AI Tool Demand And Tight Supply Will Test EPS Assumptions
ASML Holding's updated analyst price target has risen by about €104 to €1,150.93, with analysts citing refined assumptions around slightly lower discount rates, modestly adjusted revenue growth, a small uplift in profit margin expectations, and a higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ASML Holding has clustered around higher price targets and updated forecasts, with several firms adjusting their models for discount rates, revenue trajectories, margin assumptions, and future P/E multiples.Narrative Update • Apr 18
ASML: Future DRAM Tightness And Tool Demand Will Drive Upside
ASML Holding's analyst price target has been raised by €63 to reflect updated views on slightly lower discount rates, stronger revenue growth and margins, and a modestly lower future P/E assumption highlighted in recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research on ASML Holding shows a cluster of upward price target revisions across multiple banks and brokerage firms, alongside at least one downgrade, giving a mixed but generally constructive read on expectations for execution and valuation.Narrative Update • Apr 04
ASML: Elevated EPS Hopes Will Strain Tighter Wafer Fab Spending Assumptions
ASML Holding's updated fair value estimate has moved from about €1,003 to roughly €1,047 as analysts lift price targets in response to tighter foundry and DRAM supply expectations, higher outer year EPS estimates, and research pointing to strong wafer fab equipment spending. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ASML reflects a mix of optimism on long term industry demand and more cautious views around how much of that enthusiasm is already reflected in the share price.Narrative Update • Mar 21
ASML: Future WFE Spending And DRAM Tightness Will Drive Upside
ASML Holding's analyst fair value estimate has been adjusted slightly higher to €1,400.42 from €1,397.71, reflecting updated assumptions on revenue growth, margins and P/E. This follows a series of recent price target increases from major brokers who cite tighter foundry and DRAM supply, higher medium term EPS estimates and firm wafer fab equipment spending plans.New Narrative • Mar 12
ASML: The Hidden Backbone of the Global AI and Semiconductor Revolution.
ASML Holding is one of the most strategically important companies in the global semiconductor industry. The company specializes in producing advanced lithography machines used to manufacture cutting-edge semiconductor chips.Narrative Update • Mar 06
ASML: Tight Wafer Fab Equipment Supply Will Support Stronger Future Earnings Power
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for ASML Holding to €1,600 from €943, citing higher long term assumptions for revenue growth, profitability and future P/E multiples, supported by a broad wave of recent price target increases across major banks. Analyst Commentary Recent research on ASML Holding has been dominated by a series of higher price targets and more constructive views on the medium term outlook, even as one firm issued a downgrade.New Narrative • Feb 26
ASML: Durable Advantage, Limited Margin for Error
Narrative summary ASML sits at the centre of advanced semiconductor manufacturing. It does not design chips and it does not fabricate them.Narrative Update • Feb 20
ASML: Future WFE Spending And AI Demand Will Drive Upside
We are lifting our ASML Holding analyst price target to €1,397.71 from €1,207.41. This change reflects analysts' updated assumptions for higher revenue growth, stronger profit margins, and a modestly different discount rate, supported by a broad wave of recent target increases and upgrades across major brokerages.Narrative Update • Feb 06
ASML: Frothy Repricing Could Unravel If Wafer Fab Spending Disappoints
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for ASML Holding by about €274 to €1,003, reflecting updated assumptions for revenue growth, profitability and future P/E after a wave of recent price target increases from major banks and brokers. Analyst Commentary Recent research on ASML has been highly active, with a cluster of fresh price targets and rating changes pointing to a wide range of views on how much upside is already reflected in the share price.Analysis Article • Feb 04
Shareholders Can Be Confident That ASML Holding's (AMS:ASML) Earnings Are High Quality
Even though ASML Holding N.V.'s ( AMS:ASML ) recent earnings release was robust, the market didn't seem to notice...Analysis Article • Jan 31
€1,353 - That's What Analysts Think ASML Holding N.V. (AMS:ASML) Is Worth After These Results
Investors in ASML Holding N.V. ( AMS:ASML ) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.2% to close at €1,216 following the...Narrative Update • Jan 23
ASML: Future AI Demand And WFE Spending Expectations Will Shape Momentum
Analysts lifted their fair value estimate for ASML Holding to $1,207.41 from $1,065.77, citing updated assumptions that include slightly higher revenue growth expectations, a modestly lower discount rate, a recalibrated profit margin outlook, and a higher future P/E multiple, supported by a series of recent Street price target hikes and generally constructive research commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ASML Holding has been active, with several price target revisions and rating changes that help frame how professionals are thinking about the stock’s valuation, growth prospects, and execution risk.Narrative Update • Jan 08
ASML: Future AI Demand And 2026 DRAM Spend Will Shape Momentum
Narrative Update on ASML Holding The updated analyst price target for ASML Holding reflects a shift in fair value from €973.03 to €1,065.77, supported by analysts citing recent Q3 results, higher long term Street targets around €975 to €1,200, and slightly stronger assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Street research on ASML Holding has been broadly constructive, with several bullish analysts lifting their valuation ranges after the latest Q3 update and revisiting their assumptions on margins and long term growth.Analysis Article • Jan 05
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By ASML Holding N.V.'s (AMS:ASML) P/E
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 40.4x ASML Holding N.V. ( AMS:ASML ) may be sending very bearish signals...Narrative Update • Dec 15
ASML: Elevated EUV Demand Expectations Will Likely Expose Downside If 2026 Recovery Slips
Analysts have significantly raised their fair value estimate for ASML Holding from approximately EUR 573 to about EUR 729 as they factor in a series of higher Street price targets, expectations for stronger medium term revenue growth, resilient margins, and increased confidence in EUV led demand from 2026 onward. Analyst Commentary Street research on ASML has turned markedly more optimistic in recent weeks, with multiple major institutions lifting price targets into the upper triple digits and reiterating positive ratings.Narrative Update • Dec 01
ASML: Future AI Partnerships And Semiconductor Demand Will Shape Sector Momentum
ASML Holding's analyst fair value target has been raised modestly from €949.81 to €973.03. Analysts cite stronger than expected Q3 results and an improving industry outlook as factors supporting the company's valuation.Narrative Update • Nov 17
ASML: Shareholder Role In AI And Sector Dynamics Will Shape Outlook
ASML Holding's analyst price target has been raised modestly, increasing from €941.90 to €949.81 as analysts cite stronger Q3 results, improved profit margins, and a more favorable growth outlook for the semiconductor equipment sector. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary from equity research analysts reflects a primarily upbeat sentiment on ASML Holding’s outlook, with most citing strong fundamentals and improved profitability as the drivers for upward price target revisions.Narrative Update • Nov 01
ASML: Future Memory Spending And AI Investment Will Support Shareholder Value
ASML Holding's analyst price target has been raised slightly, moving from approximately €938 to €942. Analysts cite stronger quarterly results, rising industry optimism, and improved earnings prospects driven by higher expected revenue growth and profit margins.Narrative Update • Oct 18
High-NA EUV Platforms And AI Demand Will Drive System Sales
ASML Holding’s analyst price target has climbed significantly, rising from approximately €809 to €938. Analysts point to robust third-quarter results, improving profit margins, and heightened confidence in future industry growth.Narrative Update • Oct 04
High-NA EUV Platforms And AI Demand Will Drive System Sales
ASML Holding's analyst price target has been raised by approximately €40 to €809.45, as analysts cite improving sentiment around memory spending, stabilizing customer outlooks, and positive earnings prospects in the coming years. Analyst Commentary Recent research notes on ASML Holding reflect a range of views across Wall Street.Analysis Article • Sep 23
ASML Holding N.V.'s (AMS:ASML) 25% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings
ASML Holding N.V. ( AMS:ASML ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting...Narrative Update • Sep 19
High-NA EUV Platforms And AI Demand Will Drive System Sales
ASML Holding’s analyst price target was raised to €769.45, as analysts cite strengthening long-term demand from AI and semiconductor capex trends and diminishing export control risks, despite lingering near-term macro headwinds. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts point to expanding AI compute spending and expectations of substantial TSMC capex in 2026-2027, which supports higher demand trends for ASML’s advanced lithography tools.
New Narrative • Jul 22
Why Now Is The Time to Buy ASML
What Does ASML Do? ASML Holding N.V. is a Dutch company and the world’s only supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines —a critical technology used to produce the world’s most advanced computer chips.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 64,874 | 24,285 | 20,542 | 22,477 | 35 |
| 12/31/2027 | 54,467 | 19,428 | 16,731 | 18,891 | 39 |
| 12/31/2026 | 42,820 | 14,722 | 9,240 | 12,132 | 40 |
| 6/28/2026 | 35,328 | 10,638 | 9,893 | 11,487 | N/A |
| 3/29/2026 | 33,693 | 10,011 | 8,895 | 10,532 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 32,667 | 9,609 | 11,027 | 12,659 | N/A |
| 9/28/2025 | 32,212 | 9,463 | 8,927 | 10,793 | N/A |
| 6/29/2025 | 32,163 | 9,415 | 9,217 | 11,184 | N/A |
| 3/30/2025 | 30,714 | 8,703 | 9,284 | 11,360 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 28,263 | 7,572 | 9,083 | 11,166 | N/A |
| 9/29/2024 | 26,237 | 6,926 | 2,839 | 4,818 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 25,443 | 6,743 | 2,922 | 4,997 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 26,102 | 7,107 | 2,377 | 4,458 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 27,559 | 7,839 | 3,247 | 5,443 | N/A |
| 10/1/2023 | 26,752 | 7,607 | 5,537 | 7,597 | N/A |
| 7/2/2023 | 25,857 | 7,416 | 5,724 | 7,638 | N/A |
| 4/2/2023 | 24,385 | 6,885 | 8,199 | 9,807 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 21,173 | 5,624 | 7,168 | 8,487 | N/A |
| 10/2/2022 | 19,729 | 5,581 | 8,409 | 9,553 | N/A |
| 7/3/2022 | 19,192 | 5,620 | 9,201 | 10,185 | N/A |
| 4/3/2022 | 17,782 | 5,247 | 10,207 | 11,201 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 18,611 | 5,883 | 9,906 | 10,846 | N/A |
| 10/3/2021 | 17,880 | 5,460 | 8,144 | 9,099 | N/A |
| 7/4/2021 | 16,596 | 4,782 | 6,517 | 7,489 | N/A |
| 4/4/2021 | 15,902 | 4,495 | 3,336 | 4,292 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 13,979 | 3,554 | 3,627 | 4,628 | N/A |
| 9/27/2020 | 13,761 | 3,337 | 2,535 | 3,546 | N/A |
| 6/28/2020 | 12,789 | 2,903 | 2,438 | 3,424 | N/A |
| 3/29/2020 | 12,032 | 2,628 | N/A | 3,151 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 11,820 | 2,592 | N/A | 3,276 | N/A |
| 9/29/2019 | 10,926 | 2,246 | N/A | 1,335 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 10,716 | 2,299 | N/A | 1,752 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 10,888 | 2,407 | N/A | 2,407 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 10,944 | 2,592 | N/A | 3,073 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 10,272 | 2,395 | N/A | 2,483 | N/A |
| 7/1/2018 | 9,943 | 2,272 | N/A | 2,396 | N/A |
| 4/1/2018 | 9,443 | 2,258 | N/A | 2,090 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 8,963 | 2,067 | N/A | 1,818 | N/A |
| 10/1/2017 | 8,400 | 2,006 | N/A | 2,054 | N/A |
| 7/2/2017 | 7,767 | 1,874 | N/A | 1,752 | N/A |
| 4/2/2017 | 7,267 | 1,675 | N/A | 1,907 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 6,875 | 1,558 | N/A | 1,666 | N/A |
| 10/2/2016 | 6,322 | 1,371 | N/A | 1,849 | N/A |
| 7/3/2016 | 6,056 | 1,329 | N/A | 2,257 | N/A |
| 4/3/2016 | 5,971 | 1,380 | N/A | 2,033 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 6,287 | 1,620 | N/A | 2,400 | N/A |
| 9/27/2015 | 6,347 | 1,660 | N/A | 1,856 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ASML's forecast earnings growth (21.5% per year) is above the savings rate (2.3%).
Earnings vs Market: ASML's earnings (21.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Dutch market (17.4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: ASML's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: ASML's revenue (16.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Dutch market (10.8% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ASML's revenue (16.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: ASML's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (59.8%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/13 01:35 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/11 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/28 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
ASML Holding N.V. is covered by 63 analysts. 40 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Warren Lau | Aletheia Analyst Network Limited |
| Brett Simpson | Arete Research Services LLP |
| James Fontanelli | Arete Research Services LLP |