Vår Energi ASA

OB:VAR Stock Report

Market Cap: NOK 136.0b

Vår Energi Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Vår Energi's revenue and earnings are forecast to decline at 6% and 17% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to decline by 17.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 48.8% in 3 years.

Key information

-17.0%

Earnings growth rate

-17.45%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth-8.5%
Revenue growth rate-6.0%
Future return on equity48.82%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated10 Sep 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Jul 24

Vår Energi ASA Just Beat EPS By 55%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders of Vår Energi ASA ( OB:VAR ) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to kr49.30...
Analysis Article • Feb 13

Vår Energi ASA Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Vår Energi ASA ( OB:VAR ), given that the company fell short of...

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Sep 09

VAR: BlueNord Acquisition And Higher Leverage Will Constrain Future Returns

The analyst price target for Vår Energi has shifted modestly, with the updated fair value moving from about NOK 41.37 to NOK 40.19 as analysts weigh the new NOK 56 and NOK 55 targets against balance sheet pressures following the BlueNord acquisition. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage on Vår Energi highlights a split view.
Narrative Update • Aug 26

VAR: BlueNord Merger And New Wells Program Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have reduced their average price target on Vår Energi from NOK 60 to NOK 55, citing higher perceived balance sheet pressure following the BlueNord acquisition, as well as slightly more conservative assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth and profit margins, alongside a modestly higher future P/E multiple. What’s in the News for Vår Energi BlueNord shareholders approved the merger plan with Vår Energi 1 AS at an Extraordinary General Meeting.
Narrative Update • Aug 07

VAR: BlueNord Merger And Rising Leverage Will Pressure Future Returns

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Vår Energi, with the implied price target moving from about NOK 39.18 to roughly NOK 41.37. This reflects updated views on balance sheet pressure following the BlueNord acquisition and a higher expected future P/E multiple despite softer revenue growth and profit margins.
Narrative Update • Jul 24

VAR: Merger With BlueNord And New Projects Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Vår Energi from NOK 46.21 to NOK 60.33, citing updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations, alongside mixed recent rating changes on the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vår Energi reflects a mix of views, with some analysts pointing to balance sheet pressure linked to the BlueNord acquisition, while others highlight potential upside scenarios.
Analysis Article • Jul 24

Vår Energi ASA Just Beat EPS By 55%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders of Vår Energi ASA ( OB:VAR ) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to kr49.30...
Narrative Update • Jul 10

VAR: Gjøa Hub Projects And Portfolio Shift Will Shape Balanced Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their average 12 month price target for Vår Energi to NOK 39.18 from NOK 40.71, reflecting slightly lower fair value assumptions, a modestly reduced future P/E outlook, and updated expectations for revenue growth and profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vår Energi shows a mix of optimism and caution, with some firms adjusting targets and ratings as they refresh assumptions on valuation, growth prospects, and execution risks.
Narrative Update • Jun 26

VAR: Portfolio High Grading And New Wells Will Shape Balanced Outlook

The analyst price target for Vår Energi has been revised from about NOK 26 to roughly NOK 41, as analysts factor in updated assumptions around discount rates, profit margins, and future P/E, alongside a mix of recent rating changes and target tweaks from the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vår Energi reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with some firms upgrading their stance while others trim price targets.
Analysis Article • Jun 18

Vår Energi (OB:VAR) Stock Could Be 11.7% Undervalued After Balder Next New Wells Decision

Vår Energi (OB:VAR) has approved a final investment decision for the Balder Next New Wells project in the North Sea, a new phase targeting 86 million barrels of oil equivalent tied to existing infrastructure. See our latest analysis for Vår Energi. At a share price of NOK43.31, Vår Energi has given investors a year to date share price return of 29.67%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 43.42% and 3 year total shareholder return of 139.66% point to momentum that has been building...
Narrative Update • Jun 05

VAR: Project Execution And Steady Volumes Will Shape Balanced Future Returns

Analysts have nudged their average price target for Vår Energi higher to around NOK 49. This reflects a slightly higher assumed fair value and profit margin, set against more cautious revenue growth assumptions and a modestly higher discount rate after a mix of recent upgrades and one downgrade.
Narrative Update • Apr 18

VAR: Higher 2026 Volumes And Rising Production Targets Will Drive Returns

Analysts have adjusted the fair value estimate for Vår Energi to NOK 47.22 from NOK 44.72 as updated revenue growth, profit margin and forward P/E assumptions have shifted, alongside a slightly lower discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vår Energi shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several price target revisions and rating changes that feed directly into how analysts think about valuation, execution risk and growth potential.
Narrative Update • Apr 03

VAR: Higher 2026 Volumes And Mixed Execution Risks Will Shape Returns

Analysts have raised the implied fair value for Vår Energi from NOK 38.93 to NOK 44.72, citing updated assumptions on growth, margins and future P/E multiples, as well as a mix of both higher and lower price targets in recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vår Energi shows a split view, with some analysts lifting price targets and ratings while others are taking a more cautious stance with downgrades and lower targets.
Narrative Update • Mar 18

VAR: 2026 Production Targets And Sector Headwinds Will Limit Upside

The updated analyst price target for Vår Energi implies an increase in estimated fair value to about NOK 39 from roughly NOK 38, supported by mixed but generally higher Street targets in a NOK 25 to NOK 44 range as analysts adjust for revised growth, profitability and sector views. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vår Energi shows a split view, with some firms lifting price targets while others cut ratings and targets.
Narrative Update • Mar 04

VAR: Dividends And 2026 Production Plans Will Support Balanced Outlook

The analyst price target for Vår Energi has been revised from NOK 36.44 to NOK 37.52, with analysts citing updated sector views and mixed broker targets ranging from NOK 25 to NOK 40 as key factors behind the change. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vår Energi reflects a split view, with some analysts lifting price targets and others moving to more cautious stances.
Analysis Article • Feb 17

We Think Vår Energi's (OB:VAR) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

The subdued stock price reaction suggests that Vår Energi ASA's ( OB:VAR ) strong earnings didn't offer any surprises...
Analysis Article • Feb 13

Vår Energi ASA Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Vår Energi ASA ( OB:VAR ), given that the company fell short of...
New Narrative • Jan 28

Future Production And Cost Risks Will Undermine Long Term Norwegian Shelf Ambitions

Catalysts About Vår Energi Vår Energi is an oil and gas producer focused on the Norwegian Continental Shelf with a diversified asset base, significant gas exports and an active program of development and exploration projects. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Jan 27

VAR: Dividends And 2028 To 2029 Projects Will Support Balanced Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Vår Energi from about NOK 38.93 to around NOK 36.44, as updated sector views and a softer oil price outlook feed through to lower assumed fair value and P/E multiples, even while their models reflect adjusted expectations for revenue growth and profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vår Energi points to a mixed view, with some focusing on long term sector positioning and others emphasizing valuation risk at current levels.
Narrative Update • Jan 12

VAR: Dividend And New Projects Will Support Stronger 2030 Production Profile

Narrative Update Analysts have nudged their price target on Vår Energi higher, with one recent update moving from NOK 33 to NOK 34. This reflects adjusted views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions.
Narrative Update • Dec 15

VAR: Project Pipeline Will Lift 2030 Production 18% Above Market Estimates

Analysts have nudged their price target on Vår Energi slightly higher, reflecting an upward bias from NOK 33 to NOK 34 at the lower end, and a more bullish NOK 46 target, supported by expectations of a steadily expanding project pipeline and production profile through 2030. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates present a mixed but constructive picture, with price targets now clustered in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Narrative Update • Nov 30

VAR: Production Will Surpass Market Estimates As Project Pipeline Delivers Through 2030

Analysts have slightly increased their price target for Vår Energi, raising it by NOK 0.17 to NOK 38.97. This change is attributed to generally more optimistic outlooks on the company’s project pipeline and future production growth estimates.
Narrative Update • Nov 16

VAR: Production Will Outperform Consensus As Project Pipeline Expands

The average analyst price target for Vår Energi has increased modestly from NOK 38.49 to NOK 38.80. This change reflects improved growth expectations and a lower perceived discount rate according to recent analyst research.
Narrative Update • Oct 31

VAR: Production Pipeline Expansion Will Drive Output Higher Through The Decade

Vår Energi's analyst price target has been revised slightly lower, dropping from NOK 39.15 to NOK 38.49, as analysts consider more measured expectations for revenue growth and profit margins. This comes despite an ongoing split in outlooks across the Street.
Narrative Update • Oct 17

Jotun FPSO And Johan Castberg Ramps Will Boost Industry Potential

Analysts have raised the fair value price target for Vår Energi from NOK 38.62 to NOK 39.15, citing a combination of improved profit margin outlooks and updated perspectives on the company's growth trajectory. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst coverage of Vår Energi presents a balanced perspective, with optimistic and cautious viewpoints shaping sentiment around the stock’s valuation, growth and execution potential.
Narrative Update • Oct 03

Jotun FPSO And Johan Castberg Ramps Will Boost Industry Potential

Vår Energi's fair value estimate has risen from NOK 37.05 to NOK 38.62. Analysts cite modest project pipeline growth and production estimates above market consensus as key drivers for the upward revision.
Narrative Update • Sep 16

Jotun FPSO And Johan Castberg Ramps Will Boost Industry Potential

A sharp increase in Vår Energi’s future P/E ratio, likely reflecting lower earnings expectations, has driven a slight decrease in the consensus analyst price target from NOK38.07 to NOK37.05. What's in the News Jotun FPSO reached peak production ahead of schedule, now producing over 80 kboepd gross, supporting ongoing development of the Balder field, with Balder Phase V and VI projects underway to maintain high output.
Narrative Update • Aug 28

Jotun FPSO And Johan Castberg Ramps Will Boost Industry Potential

Vår Energi's consensus analyst price target was largely unchanged despite a dramatic increase in its Future P/E, suggesting sharply reduced earnings expectations, with fair value now at NOK38.60. What's in the News Vår Energi provided production guidance, targeting around 430 kboepd in Q4 2025 and expecting to reach the mid-point of its 2025 full-year guidance (330–360 kboepd); 2026 guidance at 400 kboepd and 350–400 kboepd for 2027–2030.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

OB:VAR - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20289,8059761,2434,22312
12/31/202711,0791,1831,1474,14313
12/31/202612,8891,8413,1115,94212
6/30/202610,6671,3082,9905,651N/A
3/31/20268,7906991,5644,342N/A
12/31/20257,9667801,7874,607N/A
9/30/20257,4375819283,700N/A
6/30/20257,1516111,0123,776N/A
3/31/20257,2576199453,721N/A
12/31/20247,3722655333,408N/A
9/30/20247,3905771,0423,887N/A
6/30/20247,1776017743,552N/A
3/31/20246,6754913793,072N/A
12/31/20236,8166027793,420N/A
9/30/20237,4919702273,006N/A
6/30/20238,3967318073,535N/A
3/31/20239,3877012,2254,839N/A
12/31/20229,7819363,0895,682N/A
9/30/20229,7086713,6866,189N/A
6/30/20228,8038773,4026,035N/A
3/31/20227,4879183,1505,811N/A
12/31/20216,0436541,9954,580N/A
9/30/20214,552-1461,9754,416N/A
12/31/20202,869-1,627-681,744N/A
12/31/20192,836286N/A1,365N/A
12/31/20182,557275N/A1,827N/A
12/31/20171,923163N/A1,178N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: VAR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-17% per year).

Earnings vs Market: VAR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-17% per year).

High Growth Earnings: VAR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: VAR's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: VAR's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: VAR's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (48.8%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/16 17:15
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/16 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Vår Energi ASA is covered by 22 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullABG Sundal Collier
Naisheng CuiBarclays
Lydia RainforthBarclays