Li Auto Future Growth
Future criteria checks 4/6
Li Auto is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 37.6% and 12.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 44.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.5% in 3 years.
Key information
37.6%
Earnings growth rate
44.56%
EPS growth rate
| Auto earnings growth | 37.5% |
| Revenue growth rate | 12.2% |
| Future return on equity | 10.54% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 01 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
LI: Cost Discipline And Model Mix Execution Will Drive Future Re Rating Potential
Li Auto's analyst price targets have edged lower, with cuts such as Morgan Stanley's reduction, Goldman's move to $19, and JPMorgan's revised $15.50 target contributing to a modest fair value reset as analysts factor in softer volume expectations, pressure on vehicle margins, and a higher mix of lower margin models. Analyst Commentary Recent research around Li Auto has shifted toward a more cautious tone, with several high profile firms re-basing expectations on volumes and margins.Li Auto: Should We Be Skeptical Amid Broader Sector Recovery?
Apr 08LI: Overseas Execution And Mix Management Will Drive Future Re Rating Potential
Li Auto's updated analyst price target has been reduced by about $3.70, with analysts pointing to softer 2026 volume and margin expectations, a higher mix of lower margin models, and recent downgrades that reflect concerns about delivery trends and profit pressure. Analyst Commentary Recent research paints a mixed but still constructive picture around Li Auto, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings in response to updated 2026 guidance and margin assumptions.
LI: Shares Will Recover As Execution Improves And New Model Cycle Progresses
Li Auto's updated analyst price target reflects a reduced fair value estimate to $22.16, as analysts factor in softer projected revenue growth, thinner profit margins, and a higher assumed future P/E following a series of downgrades and tempered outlooks on deliveries and vehicle economics. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Li Auto clusters around concerns on execution and profitability, with pockets of cautious optimism on valuation.
LI: Future Performance Will Face Tougher Deliveries And Sectorwide Demand Headwinds
Analysts have increased their Li Auto fair value estimate slightly to about $14.05 per share. This modest change reflects small adjustments to assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E after recent price target cuts and mixed delivery and outlook commentary across Chinese automakers.LI: Future Performance Will Face Rising Downgrade Risk And Mixed Execution
Li Auto's updated analyst price target has been trimmed by about $0.95 as analysts factor in recent downgrades, reduced fair value estimates, a slightly higher discount rate, and adjusted assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Li Auto has tilted more cautious, with several firms cutting price targets and a few moving to outright downgrades.LI: Overseas Execution Will Drive Future Re Rating Potential
Narrative Update on Li Auto Analysts have trimmed their price targets for Li Auto, with our fair value estimate moving from about US$39.04 to US$35.43. They cited more conservative assumptions on revenue growth and profit margins, partially offset by a higher expected future P/E multiple and recent target cuts and a downgrade from several firms.LI: Future Performance Will Balance Mixed Execution With Global Expansion Uncertainty
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Li Auto to about $15 from roughly $17, reflecting slightly higher assumed discount rates, modest adjustments to long term revenue growth and profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple following recent price target cuts, mixed quarterly results, and cautious outlooks in Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Li Auto shows a mixed backdrop, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets and flagging execution and growth risks, even as one firm modestly raised its target and maintains a Neutral stance.LI: Future Performance Will Balance Mixed Outlook With Global Expansion Uncertainty
Narrative Update Analysts have trimmed their Li Auto price targets, with one moving to US$25 and another initiating at US$19. This reflects views that recent mixed results, a weaker near term outlook and questions around the global expansion plan warrant more cautious assumptions on growth, margins and future P/E multiples.LI: Future Performance Will Balance Domestic EV Pressures And Overseas Expansion Uncertainty
Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Li Auto to $17, down from about $19.50. They cite increased competitive and policy risks in China as well as uncertainty around the company’s global expansion strategy.LI: Shares Will Recover As Global Expansion Progress Supports Long Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Li Auto by roughly $4 per share to about $19. They cite a slightly higher discount rate and lower future valuation multiples, despite stronger long term revenue growth and margin expectations, amid concerns over the company’s uncertain global expansion strategy and intense competition in China’s auto market.LI: Shares Will Recover As New Model Launch Supports Sales Momentum
The analyst price target for Li Auto has been revised downward from $28.70 to $28.09. This revision reflects analysts' more cautious revenue growth expectations as well as increased competitive and policy risks in China's electric vehicle market.LI: Shares Will Rebound As Competitive Pressures Are Met With New Releases
Li Auto's average analyst price target has edged down slightly to just under $28.70. Analysts point to increased competitive pressures and a reduced growth outlook following recent earnings reports.Rising Competition And Product Launches Will Shape Electric Vehicle Sector Dynamics
Li Auto's analyst price target has been modestly raised to $28.90, reflecting mixed analyst sentiment amid recent downgrades on competitive and growth concerns. However, the upgrade also ties to an improved outlook related to potential product launches and sector positioning.Battery Electric Vehicles And Intelligent Driving Will Unlock Markets
Li Auto's analyst price target has decreased slightly from approximately $29.30 to $28.87 per share. This adjustment reflects a cautious outlook amid tempered growth expectations and rising competitive pressures, according to recent analyst commentary.New BEVs And Autonomous Driving To Expand NEV Market Presence
Li Auto's consensus price target has been revised downward to $32.84 due to intensifying competition in China's premium EV market, expected Q2 underperformance, and concerns over demand and margin pressure, reflecting a more cautious fair value outlook. Analyst Commentary Rising competitive pressures in the premium electric SUV and battery electric vehicle markets, with direct competition from established best-sellers like Tesla Model Y and Xiaomi YU7.Does Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Aug 05
Investors Appear Satisfied With Li Auto Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LI) Prospects As Shares Rocket 27%
May 17Li Auto's Selloff Triggers Excellent Buying Opportunity - Reiterate Buy
Apr 17Li Auto Is Improving Safety With Self-Driving Tech
Mar 16Li Auto: Time To Be Greedy
Mar 04Li Auto: A Strong Buy Due To MEGA And AI
Jan 09Li Auto: Consistent Performer And Undervalued
Dec 31Li Auto Finally Nears Our Buy Zone, Great 2025 Prospects
Nov 20
Critical Expansion And AI Innovation Propel Premium NEV Market Growth
Strategic expansion of sales network and charging infrastructure in China is expected to bolster market share and future revenue growth.Li Auto: H2 2024 May Bring Forth Improved Numbers, Thanks To Government Stimulus
Sep 29Li Auto: Strong EV Choice, Low Price
Sep 08Li Auto: From Setback To Comeback (Rating Upgrade)
Aug 29Expecting Significant Wealth Creation From Li Stock In The Long Term
Aug 19Li Auto: Weakening Financials Encourage Caution
Jul 02Li Auto Lost The Price War - More Pain Ahead
Jun 18Li Auto: Deep Value For EV Investors
May 28Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 170,789 | 8,100 | 12,626 | 16,616 | 25 |
| 12/31/2027 | 154,663 | 6,419 | 9,013 | 16,019 | 28 |
| 12/31/2026 | 127,982 | 1,805 | 10,050 | 12,501 | 31 |
| 12/31/2025 | 112,313 | 1,124 | -12,817 | -8,611 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 127,811 | 4,641 | -9,681 | -3,452 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 143,320 | 8,080 | 8,739 | 14,968 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 144,753 | 8,090 | 9,845 | 17,575 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 144,460 | 8,032 | 8,203 | 15,933 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 141,918 | 10,167 | 18,755 | 24,547 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 133,724 | 10,176 | 20,955 | 28,029 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 130,698 | 11,367 | 33,064 | 39,571 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 123,851 | 11,704 | 44,186 | 50,694 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 99,769 | 6,303 | 32,806 | 38,325 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 74,432 | 1,839 | 17,622 | 23,310 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 54,512 | -1,072 | 9,531 | 13,327 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 45,287 | -2,012 | 2,252 | 7,380 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 38,257 | -1,974 | 1,174 | 6,292 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 36,690 | -355 | 4,297 | 8,970 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 32,997 | 28 | 4,828 | 9,248 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 27,010 | -321 | 4,896 | 8,340 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 20,536 | -509 | 4,316 | 6,325 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 15,272 | -809 | 3,901 | 5,085 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 12,180 | -918 | 3,220 | 4,129 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 9,457 | -806 | 2,465 | 3,140 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 5,594 | -1,982 | 168 | 867 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 1,136 | -3,034 | -2,319 | -1,463 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 284 | -3,261 | -2,747 | -1,794 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | N/A | -2,702 | N/A | -1,680 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: LI's forecast earnings growth (37.6% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).
Earnings vs Market: LI's earnings (37.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (15.8% per year).
High Growth Earnings: LI's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: LI's revenue (12.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11% per year).
High Growth Revenue: LI's revenue (12.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: LI's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.5%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/01 11:04 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/01 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Li Auto Inc. is covered by 50 analysts. 31 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Tianli Wen | Aletheia Analyst Network Limited |
| Jiong Shao | Barclays |
| Yuet Lee | Bernstein |