Archer Aviation Inc.

NYSE:ACHR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.4b

Archer Aviation Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Archer Aviation is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 25.2% and 62.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 28.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be -75.9% in 3 years.

Key information

25.2%

Earnings growth rate

28.86%

EPS growth rate

Aerospace & Defense earnings growth18.9%
Revenue growth rate62.8%
Future return on equity-75.85%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated18 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha May 20

Archer Aviation: The Three Revenue Engines Are Igniting (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Archer Aviation is upgraded to Buy with an $8–$10 price target, reflecting accelerated FAA certification progress and multiple new revenue catalysts. ACHR became the first eVTOL company to enter Phase 4 of FAA certification, significantly reducing regulatory risk and pulling forward the commercialization timeline. Three 2026 revenue streams—UAE commercial ops, US eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, and defense contracts—are now credible, with $30–$60M projected revenue and $1.2B year-end liquidity. Despite accelerating cash burn and dilution risk, the current $5.91 share price undervalues ACHR’s certification milestone and diversified revenue inflection. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update May 15

2026 Thesis Update: The Evolution from UAM to a "Hardware + Defense + AI" Ecosystem

Archer's recent Q1 2026 results and strategic moves fundamentally upgrade the investment thesis from a pure "air taxi operator" to a diversified aerospace platform. Beyond UAM (Defense & AI): Archer is no longer just a commercial eVTOL company.
New Narrative Apr 02

Urban Air Mobility And Certification Risks Will Pressure Prospects Despite Growing Defense And Software Hopes

Catalysts About Archer Aviation Archer Aviation develops electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for urban air mobility, civil use and defense applications. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
New Narrative Mar 18

Urban Air Taxi Certification And Defense Programs Will Transform Long Term Prospects

Catalysts About Archer Aviation Archer Aviation is building electric and hybrid vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for commercial air taxi services, defense applications and aviation software solutions. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
New Narrative Mar 04

Urban Air Mobility Catalysts And Defense Partnerships Will Support A Stronger Long Term Outlook

Catalysts About Archer Aviation Archer Aviation is developing electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft and related platforms for civil, commercial, and defense applications. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Seeking Alpha Apr 17

Archer Aviation: Real Progress, Real Potential

Summary Archer Aviation has made significant regulatory progress, securing key FAA certifications and strategic partnerships with United Airlines and Stellantis, bolstering its commercial prospects. The company has strong financial backing, with over $900 million in cash and substantial investments from partners like Stellantis, ensuring robust support for scaling production. Options market positioning and dark pool activity indicate bullish sentiment, with $7 likely acting as a price floor, suggesting potential for upward movement. Risks include potential FAA certification delays, manufacturing challenges, and macroeconomic factors, but Archer's current trajectory and partnerships position it well for future growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Mar 31

Archer Aviation: Sky High Valuation

Summary I believe Archer Aviation’s Abu Dhabi flights will attract investors' attention, but not enough to justify the current valuation without FAA type certification. I'm projecting only partial revenue recognition from the ~$50M in launch edition deals this year, and I believe the Street's $29M estimate is likely closer to the actual figure. I find the forward P/S ratio north of 110 excessive, especially without visibility on the US market entry. I anticipate the FAA could wait for operational data from Abu Dhabi before resolving certification issues, likely pushing the type rating approval to 2026 or later. I suggest holding until there's concrete progress on US certification. Without it, the upside is speculative and the risk/reward isn’t favorable. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Mar 13

Archer Aviation: It's The Perfect Time To Buy

Summary Archer Aviation is starting production of its Midnight air taxi, targeting 10 aircraft in FY25, with Abu Dhabi Aviation as its first customer. ACHR is poised to capitalize on key aviation trends: accessibility, autonomy, and electric technology, focusing on civilian, defense, and AI-driven flight control systems. Strategic partnership with Anduril aims to develop cost-effective hybrid-propulsion VTOL aircraft for defense, targeting the US Department of Defense, and leveraging AI and existing supply chains. I rate ACHR as a Buy with a target price of $11, driven by its innovative approach and significant market opportunities in both civilian and military aviation sectors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Mar 06

Archer Aviation: Midnight Launch Set To Go To New Heights

Summary Archer Aviation is set to launch its first eVTOL aircraft, Midnight, in 2025, targeting early adopters and generating initial revenue in Abu Dhabi. The company has substantial liquidity, with $1.136 billion in cash, but faces high operational expenses and relies on partnerships like Stellantis for scaling production. The eVTOL market could reach $41.5 billion by 2035, with significant potential in both civilian and military applications, boosting Archer's long-term prospects. Despite high risks and reliance on FAA certification, Archer's innovative technology and strategic marketing could justify its stock price for high-risk investors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article Feb 14

Is There An Opportunity With Archer Aviation Inc.'s (NYSE:ACHR) 49% Undervaluation?

Key Insights The projected fair value for Archer Aviation is US$18.85 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Archer...
Seeking Alpha Feb 10

Archer Aviation: Frothy Valuation Despite Continued Progress

Summary Archer Aviation's stock surged on the back of President Trump's election and speculation about an easier path to commercialization. While recent progress has been solid, Archer's valuation has long embedded an expectation of significant commercial success, not just regulatory approval. The recent increase in Archer's share price reduces the risk of dilution. Archer still needs access to significant additional capital to reach breakeven, though. I tend to think the recent eVTOL stock surge has been driven by a broader speculative bubble as much as fundamentals. As a result, near-term investor risk appetite is probably as important as Archer's progression through the certification process. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Jan 31

Archer Aviation Has Too Many Uncertainities

Summary Archer Aviation shows potential but faces significant uncertainties, including capital needs, increasing cash burn, and past share dilution, making it a high-risk investment. The company focuses on electric passenger drones for urban mobility, with plans to start production in 2025 and potential orders worth $6B. Risks include regulatory hurdles, high costs, and market limitations, compounded by insider share sales and ongoing cash burn. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Jan 14

Archer Aviation: Asymmetric Upside If You Can Stomach The Ride

Summary Archer Aviation has seen significant stock price growth, but it remains a highly speculative investment with substantial risks and potential rewards. Technical indicators suggest increased short-term risks, with the stock failing to maintain its 20-day EMA and potentially testing the 50-day SMA. Archer's future hinges on achieving commercial viability and securing customer demand, despite current high cash burn and ongoing shareholder dilution. While highly speculative, Archer could see substantial market cap growth if it successfully ramps up production and secures a significant backlog of orders. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Dec 29

Archer Aviation: Plot Twist

Summary Archer Aviation created Archer Defense to tap into the defense sector's VTOL aircraft market with limited additional work. Archer Defense opens up a new market with existing demand, enhancing Archer Aviation's growth potential. The company raised additional funds, pushing the cash balance to over $930 million, providing the capital to launch eVTOL production and air taxi services. Investors should wait for a negative plot twist, such as aircraft certification delays, before buying, as the stock has already rallied from $3 to $11 in just months. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Dec 10

Archer Aviation: Bullish Future Despite Stellantis Turmoil

Summary Archer Aviation has shown significant progress, achieving key milestones and detailing a robust commercialization strategy, leading to an 85% stock increase since July 2024. The company’s liquidity is strong with $501.7 million in cash and a $400 million pledge from Stellantis, though additional funding may be needed. Strategic partnerships and regulatory support in key markets like the U.S., UAE and Japan bolster Archer’s commercialization efforts and market entry plans. Despite current stock price inflation, incremental buying is advised for long-term gains, especially if prices drop below calculated levels due to potential Stellantis-related risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Nov 29

Archer Aviation: I'm Staying Grounded On This Rally, But Ready For The Next Ones

Summary I believe the current bull run may end soon due to the lack of immediate news to fuel the shareholder excitement, but I foresee more rallies moving ahead. Near term catalysts include the completion of the Georgia manufacturing facility and regulatory approvals, either abroad or in the US, both of which could reignite investor/speculator enthusiasm. With $501 million in cash and potential funding from Stellantis, Archer has a 15-28 month cash runway to advance the FAA's type rating. I remain skeptical about the scalability of eVTOL commercial operations in high-density cities due to limited (physical) space for additional infrastructure at urban heliports. Overall, I maintain a hold rating due to high risk for a pullback until the next catalyst is realized. If the share price cools off, I will reconsider my rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Nov 20

Why Archer Aviation's Recent Gains Are Just The Start

Summary Emerging Opportunity: eVTOL market poised for high growth; Archer a front-runner. International Growth: $6B in indicative orders; $500M from Japan Airlines JV. Georgia Facility: $65M plant; capacity for 650 aircraft annually by 2029. Upside: Innovative technology, partnerships, and first-mover advantages. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Oct 24

Archer Aviation: 6 Billion Reasons To Own

Summary Archer Aviation's $6 billion order book and FAA's supportive regulations position it for commercial launch in 2025. Significant deals with United Airlines and the UAE, plus a $142 million USAF contract, reduce FAA certification risks and bolster revenue potential. Air taxi services in San Francisco and Los Angeles, with potential airport security bypass, promise lucrative fare revenues and operational efficiency. With a market cap of $1.3 billion and $600 million in cash, Archer Aviation is poised for substantial growth, targeting $3+ billion sales by 2028. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Oct 18

Archer Aviation: Dilution Risk Is Rising

Summary Archer Aviation's share price has been under pressure in recent months, increasing the risk of harmful dilution. Archer's business is steadily progressing in areas like manufacturing and certification, though. On a positive note, ACHR's order book and partnerships continue to expand, providing the company with a significant opportunity if/when the certification process is complete. Despite this, Joby appears better positioned across most areas (manufacturing, certification, superior aircraft, stronger balance sheet, autonomy, hydrogen). Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Sep 19

Archer Aviation: The Bottoming Out Process Has Begun

Summary Archer Aviation's stock plummeted 52.56% after a 2023 rally; our valuation model now suggests it is slightly undervalued, with potential buying opportunities. Key developments include a partnership with Stellantis for production scaling and significant regulatory milestones, including military airworthiness and Part 135 certification. Future prospects hinge on competitive unit economics and scaling production to 650 eVTOLs by 2028, with cash flow profitability expected by 2027. Archer's fair value is estimated at $3.55, with shares trading at a 13.75% discount; significant risks include achieving FAA Type Certification. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Aug 29

Archer Aviation: Swelling Order Backlog In A Big Addressable Market

Summary Archer Aviation stock is a "Strong Buy" at $3.8 due to its significant progress towards FAA certification and a $6 billion order book. The eVTOL industry is poised for multi-decade growth, with Archer well-positioned as an early mover to capitalize on this potential. Strong partnerships with Stellantis, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines bolster Archer's financial stability and operational plans. Despite risks like equity dilution and competition, Archer's strategic advancements and industry tailwinds make it a compelling investment for aggressive investors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article Aug 05

Is Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE:ACHR) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value

Key Insights Archer Aviation's estimated fair value is US$3.13 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share...
Seeking Alpha Jul 02

Archer Aviation: Promising Vision Although Commercialization Remains In Early Stages

Summary Archer Aviation is a strong competitor in the urban air mobility sector, with a 50% market growth potential each year. Intense competition in the industry from companies like Joby Aviation, Vertical Aerospace, Lilium, EHang, and Wisk Aero. But Archer is leading in terms of design and certification progress. Archer's progress in prototype and certification is promising, with plans for commercial flights by 2025 and a valuation of $5.89, representing over 60% upside. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:ACHR - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2028482-867-534-2888
12/31/202794-1,002-788-5728
12/31/20269-1,007-867-7087
3/31/20262-742-615-487N/A
12/31/20250-618-538-433N/A
9/30/2025N/A-627-487-408N/A
6/30/2025N/A-613-477-400N/A
3/31/2025N/A-514-451-377N/A
12/31/2024N/A-537-451-369N/A
9/30/2024N/A-448-415-348N/A
6/30/2024N/A-384-381-318N/A
3/31/2024N/A-461-345-294N/A
12/31/2023N/A-458-316-272N/A
9/30/2023N/A-444-293-255N/A
6/30/2023N/A-484-263-239N/A
3/31/2023N/A-371-245-227N/A
12/31/2022N/A-317-207-200N/A
9/30/2022N/A-265-186-182N/A
6/30/2022N/A-351-166-162N/A
3/31/2022N/A-312-136-133N/A
12/31/2021N/A-348-112-108N/A
9/30/2021N/A-313-72-67N/A
6/30/2021N/A-144-48-44N/A
3/31/2021N/A-116-34-32N/A
12/31/2020N/A-25-25-23N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ACHR is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: ACHR is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: ACHR is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ACHR's revenue (62.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ACHR's revenue (62.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ACHR is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.


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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/21 20:23
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/21 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Archer Aviation Inc. is covered by 10 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ZazulaBarclays
Austin MoellerCanaccord Genuity
Andres Sheppard-SlingerCantor Fitzgerald & Co.