Builders FirstSource, Inc.

NYSE:BLDR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$7.9b

Builders FirstSource Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Builders FirstSource is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 26% and 3.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 28.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 18.9% in 3 years.

Key information

26.0%

Earnings growth rate

28.17%

EPS growth rate

Building earnings growth18.6%
Revenue growth rate3.9%
Future return on equity18.86%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated04 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

BLDR: Margin Resilience And 2026 Guidance Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed the fair value estimate for Builders FirstSource to $129.22 from $150.00, reflecting a series of reduced price targets across the Street as models factor in a slightly higher discount rate, modestly different revenue growth and profit margin expectations, and a lower future P/E assumption. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Builders FirstSource shows a cluster of lower price targets, but the overall tone is not uniformly negative.

Builders FirstSource: A Weak Q1 But Nearing A Bottom (Upgrade)

Apr 30

BLDR: Margin Resilience And Housing Recovery Are Expected To Drive Upside

Analysts have trimmed the price target on Builders FirstSource to reflect a fair value move from about $126.24 to $120.62, citing updated assumptions for growth, margins, discount rates and P/E that mirror recent Street research, including multiple target reductions and some more constructive views on gross margin resilience. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Builders FirstSource points to a mixed but constructive debate around valuation, execution and growth, with several firms trimming price targets while others highlight support from margins and the housing cycle.

BLDR: Margin Resilience Will Drive Upside As 2026 Guidance Sets Earnings Floor

Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on Builders FirstSource by a few dollars, with recent cuts toward the $93 to $143 range. These changes reflect more cautious assumptions about 2026 housing starts and near term earnings, even as many still highlight the company's margin resilience and competitive position.

BLDR: Margin Resilience And Scale Are Expected To Outweigh Housing Headwinds

Narrative Update: Builders FirstSource Analyst Price Target Shift The Analyst Price Target for Builders FirstSource has moved slightly lower, with fair value edging from about $128.10 to $126.24. Analysts are factoring in more cautious revenue growth, slightly softer profit margin assumptions, a higher discount rate, and Street research that trims price targets while still highlighting gross margin resilience and the potential benefits of the company’s scale and services footprint.

BLDR: Margin Resilience And Market Share Gains Will Drive Long Term Upside

The analyst price target for Builders FirstSource has been reduced from $171.29 to $150.00 as analysts factor in higher discount rates, more conservative revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a higher future P/E multiple, despite recent research highlighting resilient gross margins and potential market share upside. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Builders FirstSource reflects a mix of caution on housing and remodel demand alongside confidence in the company’s margin profile, scale, and ability to execute through softer conditions.

BLDR: Cost Control And Margin Resilience Are Expected To Outweigh Housing Headwinds

Analysts have nudged our Builders FirstSource fair value estimate slightly lower to $128.10 from $130.24, reflecting recent cuts to Street price targets that factor in lighter Q4 results, cautious housing and residential outlooks, and modestly trimmed EPS forecasts, even as cost control and margin resilience remain key parts of the thesis. Analyst Commentary Street research around Builders FirstSource has tilted more cautious after Q4, with several firms trimming price targets and earnings expectations while still pointing to areas of operational strength.

BLDR: Housing Affordability Pressures And R&R Recovery Shape Balanced Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their price targets for Builders FirstSource by a few dollars, reflecting slightly lower modeled fair value and profit margins as they weigh mixed housing and nonresidential trends along with ongoing sector volatility. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Builders FirstSource reflects a mix of optimism about long term positioning and caution around near term housing and repair and remodel headwinds, which is showing up in price target tweaks rather than major rating shifts.

BLDR: Stabilizing Margins And Housing Cycle Trough Set Up Balanced Outlook

Analysts have modestly reduced their fair value estimate for Builders FirstSource to $131.00, reflecting slightly lower margin and growth assumptions. This is partially offset by higher future P/E expectations and a mixed set of recent price target revisions from Barclays, RBC Capital, UBS, and Jefferies.

BLDR: Lowered Margin Outlook And Cycle Trough Multiples Will Shape 2026 Rebound Potential

Narrative Update: Builders FirstSource The analyst price target for Builders FirstSource has moved lower, with the fair value estimate shifting from about $118 to roughly $103. Analysts are factoring in updated views on margin expectations, a higher discount rate, and valuation multiples, while also referencing stabilized margins, bottoming fundamentals, and recent Street targets of $143 and $138.

BLDR: Stabilizing Margins And Cycle Trough Pricing Will Drive Upside

Analysts have modestly trimmed their price target on Builders FirstSource, cutting it by about $8 to roughly $138 per share. They cite a still competitive market even as margins stabilize and fundamentals appear to be bottoming with solid recovery potential.

BLDR: Stabilizing Margins Will Support Recovery As Competitive Pressures Ease

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Builders FirstSource, trimming it by $8 to $138 as they factor in a still-competitive market. They also point to stabilizing margins, bottom-of-cycle valuation support near $100, and improving fundamentals with strong recovery potential.

BLDR: Margins Will Hold Steady as Cycle Recovery Brings Upside Potential

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Builders FirstSource from $146 to $138, citing stabilized margins and expectations for support at recent valuation lows as the company approaches a cyclical recovery. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst updates highlight a mix of optimism and caution regarding Builders FirstSource's outlook as the company navigates the current industry cycle.

BLDR: Margins Will Stabilize as Market Recovery Signals Strength Ahead

Analysts have reduced their price target for Builders FirstSource by $7, citing stabilizing margins and signs of a bottoming market. They continue to maintain a positive outlook for eventual recovery.

Turnkey Market Expansion And Share Repurchases Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have lowered their price target for Builders FirstSource from approximately $140.32 to $139.02. They cite expectations for a "lower for longer" earnings trough and a reduced growth outlook in their rationale.

Builders FirstSource, Inc.'s (NYSE:BLDR) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 19% Below Its Share Price

Sep 09
Builders FirstSource, Inc.'s (NYSE:BLDR) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 19% Below Its Share Price

Digital Transformation And Acquisitions Will Shape Future Markets

Consensus analyst price targets for Builders FirstSource remain unchanged at $141.16 as analysts cite weaker housing starts, margin pressure, and cautious earnings outlooks for 2025–26, despite long-term optimism around U.S. housing under-builds and M&A potential. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are forecasting a “lower for longer” trough driven by reduced FY25 and FY26 adjusted EBITDA outlooks, citing a more cautious earnings reset.

Not Many Are Piling Into Builders FirstSource, Inc. (NYSE:BLDR) Just Yet

Jul 23
Not Many Are Piling Into Builders FirstSource, Inc. (NYSE:BLDR) Just Yet

Builders FirstSource (NYSE:BLDR) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

Jun 23
Builders FirstSource (NYSE:BLDR) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

Is Builders FirstSource, Inc. (NYSE:BLDR) Trading At A 43% Discount?

May 22
Is Builders FirstSource, Inc. (NYSE:BLDR) Trading At A 43% Discount?

Builders FirstSource: Capitalizing On Considerable Pent-Up Demand

Apr 24

Builders FirstSource: Limited Visibility Into Top- And Bottom-Line Recovery

Mar 07

Builders FirstSource: Normalization Set To Continue In 2025

Jan 13

Builders FirstSource: Near Term Uncertainty Creates Opening In This Long Term Compounder

Dec 31

Builders FirstSource: Encouraging Margins But Soft Revenue In Q3

Nov 06

Builders FirstSource: Tuesday Drop May Indicate Trouble To Come For Homebuilding

Oct 30

Builders FirstSource: Cautious Approach Due To Housing Challenges

Sep 12
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Digital Transformation And Critical M&A Poised To Bolster Market Leadership And Shareholder Value

The company's digital platform adoption and focus on value-added services aim to drive future revenue growth and improve operational efficiency.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:BLDR - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202816,6145955978637
12/31/202715,6174016671,05921
12/31/202614,83622547672821
3/31/202614,8202918621,171N/A
12/31/202515,1914358531,216N/A
9/30/202515,6535941,0201,395N/A
6/30/202515,9447561,1891,577N/A
3/31/202516,1679151,3011,688N/A
12/31/202416,4001,0781,4921,873N/A
9/30/202416,7311,2381,7302,111N/A
6/30/202417,0331,4051,6042,030N/A
3/31/202417,1051,4661,5061,970N/A
12/31/202317,0971,5411,8312,307N/A
9/30/202317,3041,5742,1552,667N/A
6/30/202318,5311,8613,0663,518N/A
3/31/202320,9292,4443,6784,074N/A
12/31/202222,7262,7493,2593,599N/A
9/30/202223,0042,8073,1953,468N/A
6/30/202222,7512,6822,8253,074N/A
3/31/202221,4012,1921,8852,124N/A
12/31/202119,8941,7251,5161,744N/A
9/30/202117,7901,4238191,008N/A
6/30/202114,577896-269-114N/A
3/31/202110,946477-13110N/A
12/31/20208,559314148260N/A
9/30/20207,792215180299N/A
6/30/20207,477207373495N/A
3/31/20207,436195327447N/A
12/31/20197,280222N/A504N/A
9/30/20197,333232N/A634N/A
6/30/20197,470228N/A631N/A
3/31/20197,656218N/A467N/A
12/31/20187,725205N/A283N/A
9/30/20187,688110N/A196N/A
6/30/20187,44877N/A86N/A
3/31/20187,20258N/A137N/A
12/31/20177,03439N/A179N/A
9/30/20176,80288N/A154N/A
6/30/20176,669174N/A114N/A
3/31/20176,503165N/A65N/A
12/31/20166,367144N/A158N/A
9/30/20166,276127N/A55N/A
6/30/20165,806-7N/A128N/A
3/31/20164,591-33N/A124N/A
12/31/20153,564-23N/A177N/A
9/30/20152,505-10N/A116N/A
6/30/20151,6648N/A44N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BLDR's forecast earnings growth (26% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: BLDR's earnings (26% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BLDR's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BLDR's revenue (3.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BLDR's revenue (3.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BLDR's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18.9%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/05 05:23
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/05 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Builders FirstSource, Inc. is covered by 26 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David MantheyBaird
Matthew BouleyBarclays
Reuben GarnerBenchmark Company