Caterpillar Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Caterpillar has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 14.6%, while the Machinery industry saw earnings growing at 7.7% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 7.6% per year. Caterpillar's return on equity is 50.5%, and it has net margins of 13.3%.
Key information
14.63%
Earnings growth rate
17.64%
EPS growth rate
| Machinery Industry Growth | 8.77% |
| Revenue growth rate | 7.55% |
| Return on equity | 50.52% |
| Net Margin | 13.33% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jul 06
CAT: AI Power Demand And Deep Backlog Will Drive Future Repricing
The analyst price target for Caterpillar has been raised from $1,165 to $1,218, with analysts pointing to strong demand trends across power, data center, aerospace and defense, infrastructure, and prime power generation as key supports for the updated outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Caterpillar centers on robust demand across power generation, data centers, aerospace and defense, and infrastructure, with several bullish analysts revisiting their models and valuation ranges.Seeking Alpha • Jul 06
Caterpillar: A Power Boom Inside A Cyclical Machine
Summary Caterpillar has surged nearly 140% in a year, driven by record power and energy segment growth and unprecedented data center demand. CAT's backlog reached an all-time high of $63 billion, up 79% YoY, with significant long-term commitments from data center operators. Despite strong fundamentals, CAT now trades at ~47x trailing earnings—almost double its 5-year average—prompting a Hold rating due to cyclical risks. Much of CAT's business remains tied to construction and mining cycles, making current valuation difficult to justify if AI-driven power demand slows. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jun 22
CAT: AI Power Demand And Record Backlog Will Drive Future Multiple Repricing
The analyst price target for Caterpillar has been revised from $850.00 to $1,165.00. Analysts point to research that highlights strong demand across power generation, construction, mining, and oil and gas as key support for higher earnings assumptions, along with modestly higher long term revenue growth, margins, and P/E expectations.Analysis Article • Jun 16
Caterpillar (CAT) Stock Could Be 69% Overvalued After AI Power Demand Lifts Backlog
Caterpillar (CAT) is back in focus after rapid growth in its Energy & Transportation business, where demand for power generation equipment tied to AI data centers has coincided with a record company backlog. See our latest analysis for Caterpillar. Caterpillar’s share price has been on a strong run, with a 33.04% 90 day share price return and a 56.07% year to date share price return, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 160.47% points to powerful recent momentum. If AI driven power...
Narrative Update • Jun 05
CAT: AI Power Projects And Tariff Relief Will Likely Cap Future Upside
Caterpillar's analyst price target has shifted from $575 to about $670 as analysts factor in Street research highlighting stronger demand expectations across power generation, construction, mining, and oil and gas, along with higher projected revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Caterpillar has leaned constructive on the demand outlook in power generation, construction, mining, and oil and gas, with several firms lifting price targets to reflect stronger earnings assumptions and higher P/E multiples.
Narrative Update • May 19
CAT: Future Returns Will Reflect Data Center Power And Physical AI Opportunities
Caterpillar's updated analyst price target framework moves from a fair value of about $754 to roughly $913, with analysts generally pointing to firmer profit margin assumptions and a higher future P/E multiple as key drivers of the change, even as they apply a slightly higher discount rate and trim revenue growth expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Caterpillar clusters around a consistent theme, with a series of higher price targets and at least one fresh upgrade.Analysis Article • May 04
Results: Caterpillar Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
Caterpillar Inc. ( NYSE:CAT ) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its...Narrative Update • May 02
CAT: Physical AI Mega Projects Will Likely Cap Future Return Potential
The analyst price target for Caterpillar in this narrative has been raised from $521.71 to $575.00. This reflects analysts' use of higher valuation multiples and slightly stronger margin and earnings assumptions following a series of recent target hikes and upgrades tied to construction demand, mega project pipelines, and Caterpillar's positioning in physical AI and data center related equipment.Narrative Update • Apr 16
CAT: Future Returns Will Reflect Data Center Power And Physical AI Execution Risks
Caterpillar's analyst price target has been revised slightly higher to $754.33 from $742.18, with analysts pointing to updated fair value work, modestly adjusted revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a somewhat higher future P/E multiple to reflect recent sector research and sentiment. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Caterpillar has centered on higher price targets and updated views on long term demand drivers, digital capabilities, and the construction cycle.Narrative Update • Apr 02
CAT: Future Returns Will Reflect Data Center Power And Cycle Normalization Risks
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for Caterpillar from about $588 to roughly $742, reflecting higher modeled revenue growth, a richer future P/E assumption of about 28x, and a slightly lower discount rate. This is supported by recent research that highlights strong data center related power demand, a healthy pipeline of mega construction projects, and Caterpillar's positioning in physical AI.Narrative Update • Mar 19
CAT: Data Center Power Dependence Will Likely Restrain Future Return Potential
Caterpillar's updated analyst price target reflects a modest fair value lift of about $1 per share. Analysts point to stronger construction demand signals from ConExpo, lengthening engine lead times tied to data center projects, and growing confidence in the company as a physical AI and infrastructure supplier.Narrative Update • Mar 05
CAT: Data Center Power Dependence Will Likely Cap Future Return Potential
Caterpillar's updated fair value estimate has increased from about $475 to $521, as analysts factor in stronger projected revenue growth, a higher future P/E multiple, and ongoing demand in private non residential construction and data center power projects. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Caterpillar has been skewed toward higher price targets and generally constructive views, with several firms lifting their expectations alongside stronger assumptions for private non residential construction and data center related demand.Narrative Update • Feb 19
CAT: Data Center Power Demand Will Drive Future Multiple Repricing
Caterpillar's analyst price target has been raised from $790 to $850. Analysts cited updated assumptions for faster revenue growth, a slightly lower discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple, partly offset by more moderate profit margin expectations.Narrative Update • Feb 05
CAT: Data Center Engine Reliance Will Likely Erode Future Return Expectations
The analyst price target for Caterpillar has moved higher from about US$393 to roughly US$475, with analysts pointing to updated assumptions for slightly stronger profit margins, a higher future P/E multiple, and ongoing support from data center driven engine demand. Analyst Commentary Across recent research, the tone around Caterpillar has leaned constructive, with a cluster of firms lifting their price targets by wide ranges, from around US$15 to as high as US$125.Narrative Update • Jan 21
CAT: Data Center Power Demand Will Drive Future Earnings Repricing
Our Caterpillar fair value estimate is updated from $780 to $790, reflecting analysts' higher price targets and their focus on data center driven engine demand, stronger Energy & Transportation and Construction trends, and a slightly higher assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Caterpillar has leaned constructive, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets and highlighting specific growth drivers tied to engines, power generation and core construction and energy markets.Narrative Update • Jan 07
CAT: Power Demand And Backlog Strength Will Drive Future Earnings Repricing
The analyst price target for Caterpillar has been raised from US$507 to US$780, with analysts citing stronger profit expectations, a higher assumed future P/E multiple, and recent Street research that highlights solid Q3 results, improving backlogs, and growing confidence around Energy & Transportation and Power Gen demand. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Caterpillar points to a wide range of views, but there is a clear pocket of bullish analysts who are leaning into the Q3 print, backlog trends, and perceived strength in Energy & Transportation, Power Gen, and Construction.Narrative Update • Dec 21
CAT: Power Demand Optimism Will Likely Fade And Pressure Future Returns
Analysts have lifted their Caterpillar fair value estimate by about $28 to roughly $393, citing upward revisions to revenue growth and margins, a modestly higher assumed future P E multiple, and a wave of recent price target increases and upgrades following stronger than expected Q3 results and improving Power Gen and construction demand. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a broadly constructive view on Caterpillar following its Q3 earnings beat, with multiple upgrades and sizable price target increases.Narrative Update • Dec 07
CAT: Future Returns Will Reflect Power Demand Upside And Tariff Headwind Risks
Analysts have nudged our Caterpillar price target higher by approximately $30 per share to reflect a stronger multiple on the Power Gen business, broad-based target hikes across the Street following Q3 outperformance, and growing conviction in secular demand and margin durability. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates reflect a broadly constructive but increasingly bifurcated view on Caterpillar, with most on the Street acknowledging stronger execution in Power Gen and core machinery, while debating how much of this strength is already embedded in the valuation.Narrative Update • Nov 23
CAT: Future Performance Will Balance Demand Momentum And Rising Tariff Headwinds
Caterpillar's analyst price target has increased from $559 to $588. This reflects growing confidence among analysts due to strong recent earnings and an improved demand outlook across key segments.Narrative Update • Nov 05
CAT: Fair Value Will Reflect Mixed Cycle Outlook Amid New Demand and Tariff Risks
Caterpillar's fair value estimate has increased by over $60 to $559, as analysts cite strong Q3 earnings, improved margins, and sustained demand, which are driving a higher price target for the shares. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst reports reflect a wide range of opinions on Caterpillar's outlook, with both bullish and bearish case elements evident following the company's strong quarterly performance and evolving macroeconomic conditions.Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analysts Debate Caterpillar Outlook as Price Targets Rise and Valuation Climbs Amid New Risks
The analyst price target for Caterpillar has increased from approximately $468 to $498. Analysts cite resilient margins, improved inventory management, and expectations for continued earnings growth despite ongoing tariff headwinds as key drivers of this upward revision.Narrative Update • Oct 08
Global Infrastructure Expansion Will Drive Equipment Renewal Cycle
Analysts have modestly increased their fair value estimate for Caterpillar to approximately $468. They cite stronger-than-expected operating margins, resilience against tariff pressures, and continued robust demand as supporting factors.Narrative Update • Sep 23
Global Infrastructure Expansion Will Drive Equipment Renewal Cycle
Caterpillar’s consensus price target was raised to $458.91 as analysts grow more confident in operational momentum, resilient margins, and the potential for earnings recovery in 2025 despite tariff headwinds and some downward EPS revisions from bears. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are raising price targets based on strong Q2 results, resilient construction equipment margins, and successful management of dealer inventories, suggesting continued operational momentum despite tariff pressures.Narrative Update • Aug 07
Global Infrastructure Expansion Will Drive Equipment Renewal Cycle
Caterpillar’s fair value estimate remains steady at $426.17, as both its future P/E ratio and consensus revenue growth forecasts show no significant change. What's in the News Caterpillar, Joule Capital Partners, and Wheeler Machinery Co. agreed to power Joule's Utah data center campus with Caterpillar's advanced generator sets, integrated cooling and power solutions, and substantial grid-forming battery energy storage, emphasizing fast deployment and comprehensive support.Analysis Article • Aug 07
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Price Targets
NYSE:CAT 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Caterpillar's Fair Values from the Community and select yours As you...Analysis Article • Jul 18
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT)
Key Insights Caterpillar's estimated fair value is US$520 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With US$418 share...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Caterpillar makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 70,755 | 9,430 | 5,978 | 2,205 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 67,589 | 8,884 | 5,800 | 2,148 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 64,671 | 9,273 | 5,835 | 2,105 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 63,139 | 9,437 | 5,713 | 2,083 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 63,259 | 9,939 | 5,706 | 2,067 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 64,809 | 10,792 | 5,716 | 2,107 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 65,664 | 10,677 | 5,804 | 2,142 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 66,368 | 11,007 | 5,765 | 2,163 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 66,997 | 11,248 | 5,697 | 2,156 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 67,060 | 10,335 | 5,619 | 2,108 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 66,587 | 9,113 | 4,759 | 1,955 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 64,771 | 8,360 | 4,527 | 1,877 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 61,700 | 7,111 | 4,322 | 1,829 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 59,427 | 6,705 | 4,110 | 1,814 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 56,628 | 7,371 | 3,802 | 1,852 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 54,031 | 6,756 | 3,633 | 1,803 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 52,673 | 6,496 | 3,535 | 1,769 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 50,971 | 6,489 | 3,433 | 1,686 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 48,408 | 5,149 | 4,470 | 1,621 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 45,892 | 4,391 | 4,297 | 1,538 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 43,000 | 3,436 | 4,101 | 1,433 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 41,748 | 2,998 | 3,957 | 1,415 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 43,657 | 3,316 | 4,169 | 1,427 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 46,534 | 4,142 | 4,377 | 1,514 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 50,969 | 5,304 | 4,555 | 1,614 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 53,800 | 6,093 | 4,796 | 1,693 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 54,998 | 6,043 | 4,870 | 1,773 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 55,750 | 6,276 | 4,851 | 1,821 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 55,329 | 6,363 | 4,906 | 1,842 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 54,722 | 6,147 | 4,806 | 1,850 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 53,276 | 3,800 | 4,421 | 1,882 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 51,179 | 3,132 | 4,457 | 1,864 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 48,499 | 2,227 | 4,491 | 1,860 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 45,462 | 754 | 4,425 | 1,842 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 42,140 | 882 | 4,515 | 1,866 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 39,887 | 106 | 4,288 | 1,858 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 38,898 | -146 | 4,099 | 1,868 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 38,537 | -67 | 4,476 | 1,853 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 39,993 | 1,010 | 3,890 | 2,001 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 41,795 | 1,286 | 4,026 | 2,061 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 43,770 | 1,538 | 4,196 | 2,103 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 47,011 | 2,512 | 4,363 | 2,119 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 50,225 | 3,363 | 4,616 | 2,125 |
Quality Earnings: CAT has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: CAT's current net profit margins (13.3%) are lower than last year (15.7%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: CAT's earnings have grown by 14.6% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: CAT's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: CAT had negative earnings growth (-5.1%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Machinery industry average (2.2%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: Whilst CAT's Return on Equity (50.52%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/16 03:58 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/16 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Caterpillar Inc. is covered by 59 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| John Eade | Argus Research Company |
| Mircea Dobre | Baird |
| Adam Seiden | Barclays |