Automatic Data Processing Future Growth
Future criteria checks 2/6
Automatic Data Processing is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.2% and 4.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 7.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 60.7% in 3 years.
Key information
6.2%
Earnings growth rate
7.56%
EPS growth rate
| Professional Services earnings growth | 15.3% |
| Revenue growth rate | 4.9% |
| Future return on equity | 60.71% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 02 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Analysis Article • May 02
Analysts Are Updating Their Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) Estimates After Its Third-Quarter Results
Investors in Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ADP ) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.0% to close at US$214...
New Narrative • Apr 26
Automatic Data Processing (ADP): The Payroll Titan Faces a Complex Labor Market Inflection
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) , the global vanguard of human capital management (HCM) and payroll outsourcing, enters the weekend of Sunday, April 26, 2026 , in a state of resilient transition.
Narrative Update • Apr 25
ADP: Dividend Strength And AI Agents Will Support Repriced Earnings Potential
Analysts have trimmed Automatic Data Processing's analyst price target by roughly $5 to align with a slightly lower fair value estimate of about $256. This reflects updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, while incorporating a recent wave of reduced targets and mixed but constructive research commentary.Seeking Alpha • Apr 17
Automatic Data Processing Might Be Cheap For A Reason
Summary Automatic Data Processing appears slightly undervalued after a 40% decline, trading at the lowest multiples in a decade. ADP demonstrates strong historical profitability and high ROIC but faces potential moat erosion from GenAI-driven competition. Continued high-single to double-digit growth is necessary for ADP to justify its current valuation; risk exists if GenAI disrupts core offerings. I maintain a 'Hold' rating on ADP, anticipating possible further downside amid economic and technological headwinds. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Apr 12
Cloud HCM Adoption And Global Payroll Expansion Will Transform Long Term Earnings Power
Catalysts About Automatic Data Processing Automatic Data Processing provides payroll, human capital management and outsourced HR solutions to employers of all sizes around the world. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Apr 10
ADP: Dividend Strength And AI Agents Will Support Repriced Earnings Multiple
The analyst price target for Automatic Data Processing has been reduced by about $10 to reflect slightly higher discount rate assumptions, a modestly lower future P/E multiple, and recent Street target cuts, even as profit margin expectations are essentially unchanged. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Automatic Data Processing shows a cluster of reduced price targets alongside fresh bullish initiations.
New Narrative • Mar 29
AI Payroll Demand And International Expansion Will Shape A Steady But Limited Outlook
Catalysts About Automatic Data Processing Automatic Data Processing provides payroll and broader human capital management services and outsourcing solutions to employers of various sizes across multiple countries. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 27
ADP: Dividend Strength And AI Agents Will Support Premium Earnings Multiple
Analysts have trimmed their average price target for Automatic Data Processing by $0.60 to $271.40 as they balance a series of target reductions from major firms with fresh bullish initiations that highlight steady assumptions for growth, margins, and valuation multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Automatic Data Processing highlights a split view, with some firms trimming targets and others starting coverage with a positive stance.Narrative Update • Mar 11
ADP: Dividend Strength And AI HR Execution Will Support Premium P/E
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Automatic Data Processing by about $5 to $272. This reflects slightly softer revenue growth assumptions, a modestly higher discount rate, and only a small adjustment to long term P/E expectations, despite relatively steady margin forecasts.Narrative Update • Feb 25
ADP: Dividend Strength And HR Platform Execution Will Support Premium P/E
The analyst price target for Automatic Data Processing has been reduced by about $2 to reflect slightly lower fair value estimates, as analysts factor in a series of recent target cuts alongside one bullish initiation. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Automatic Data Processing show a cluster of target price cuts alongside one new bullish initiation, which is why the average target has shifted only modestly.Narrative Update • Feb 10
ADP: Dividend Power And HR Platform Execution Will Support Premium P/E
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Automatic Data Processing by about $10, reflecting slightly more cautious assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples after a series of target cuts from major research firms, alongside one fresh bullish initiation. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Automatic Data Processing shows a cluster of target cuts alongside one new, more optimistic initiation.Narrative Update • Jan 27
ADP: Dividend And Buyback Strength Will Support Premium P/E In Tougher Backdrop
Analysts have nudged their price expectations for Automatic Data Processing slightly lower, trimming the fair value estimate by about US$1 to US$288.54. They are factoring in recent price target cuts alongside cautious commentary on the stock's ability to support a premium P/E multiple despite solid recent results.Narrative Update • Jan 12
ADP: Dividend And Buyback Support Will Offset Tougher Employment And Rate Backdrop
Analysts have trimmed their price targets for Automatic Data Processing to a range around $245 to $303, reflecting concerns that a tougher macro backdrop, slowing employment trends, and longer sales cycles could make it harder for the stock to support a premium P/E multiple despite recent solid quarterly results. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a more cautious stance around Automatic Data Processing, with trimmed price targets and a focus on how the company will handle a tougher backdrop for employment and interest rates.Narrative Update • Dec 24
ADP: Dividend And Buyback Strength Will Support Returns Through Cyclical Headwinds
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Automatic Data Processing by about $2 to reflect solid recent results but a tougher near term backdrop, citing slowing employment trends, longer sales cycles, cyclical risks for payroll outsourcers, and updated assumptions for interest rates and foreign exchange. Analyst Commentary Analysts remain divided on Automatic Data Processing as they recalibrate expectations following the latest quarterly results, with several trimming price targets but differing on the company’s ability to sustain premium valuation levels.
Narrative Update • Dec 23
ADP Stock: Why Boring Payroll Is One of the Most Durable Businesses in Tech
Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ: ADP) is rarely described as exciting. It doesn’t launch viral products or chase consumer trends.Analysis Article • Dec 11
Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) Is Paying Out A Larger Dividend Than Last Year
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:ADP ) dividend will be increasing from last year's payment of the same...Narrative Update • Dec 10
ADP: Dividend Strength Will Support Returns Despite Cyclical Employment Headwinds
The analyst price target for Automatic Data Processing has been trimmed slightly as fair value moves from approximately $293.23 to $291.31 per share. Analysts cite a tougher path for sustaining premium valuation multiples amid slowing employment trends, cyclical concerns in payroll outsourcing, and evolving macro and interest rate expectations despite solid recent operating performance.Narrative Update • Nov 26
ADP: Persistent Demand And Dividend Growth Will Sustain Bullish Momentum
Analysts have recently lowered their price targets for Automatic Data Processing, reducing them by as much as $70 per share. They cite tougher growth prospects, cyclical risks, and macroeconomic headwinds, despite the company's solid recent results.Analysis Article • Nov 15
Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $1.70
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ADP ) will increase its dividend on the 1st of January to $1.70, which is 10...Narrative Update • Nov 12
ADP: Resilient Demand Will Drive Long-Term Opportunity Amid Macro Uncertainty
Analysts have reduced their price target for Automatic Data Processing by approximately $18 to $293. They cited solid recent results but also expressed concerns about tougher macroeconomic conditions and slowing employment trends.Analysis Article • Nov 05
This Is Why Automatic Data Processing, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ADP) CEO Compensation Looks Appropriate
Key Insights Automatic Data Processing's Annual General Meeting to take place on 12th of November CEO Maria Black's...New Narrative • Oct 29
ADP Stock: Solid Fundamentals, But AI Investments Test Its Margin Resilience
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADP) remains one of the most reliable pillars in human capital management, blending predictable cash flows with an expanding suite of digital HR solutions.Narrative Update • Oct 29
Long-Term Demand For HR Outsourcing Will Overcome Near-Term Macro Weakness
Analysts have marginally reduced their fair value estimate for Automatic Data Processing by about $2.55 to $311.62. This change reflects concerns over slowing employment trends, longer sales cycles, and cyclical headwinds highlighted in recent research.Narrative Update • Oct 14
Cloud Based HR Solutions Will Transform Global Workforce Management
The consensus analyst price target for Automatic Data Processing has decreased by $4 to $314. This change reflects adjustments for changing macroeconomic expectations and updated sector outlooks.Narrative Update • Sep 18
Cloud Based HR Solutions Will Transform Global Workforce Management
Analysts have slightly lowered ADP’s price target to $318.17, citing ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and softer near-term bookings despite resilient long-term growth prospects in HCM, HR outsourcing, and payroll. Analyst Commentary Sector-wide volatility in human capital management due to slowing macroeconomic and employment trends is tempering near-term price targets.Analysis Article • Sep 02
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 30.2x Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ADP ) may be sending very...Analysis Article • Jul 22
Here's Why Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Seeking Alpha • Jan 31
Automatic Data Processing: It Has Always Been Expensive, Try Range Trading
Summary Automatic Data Processing has benefited from increased demand for HCM solutions post-COVID-19, while maintaining high liquidity and cautious market expansion to sustain growth and minimize risks. Despite being consistently expensive, ADP's stock price is driven by solid fundamentals, including impressive margins, stable liquidity, and strategic market positioning. ADP faces potential risks from AI advancements but can adapt by enhancing its solutions and leveraging improving macroeconomic indicators and hybrid work trends. Recommend range trading with a take profit at $319.5-323.9 and stop loss at $288.4-292.8, as ADP's stock approaches the overbought region. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 20
Automatic Data Processing Moves Upmarket: Assessing The WorkForce Acquisition
Summary ADP's acquisition of WorkForce Software aligns with its core competencies, and seems reasonably priced, avoiding "diworse-ification" concerns. ADP is a brand new Dividend King, and its growth prospects look better than its peer group. Despite strong fundamentals, ADP's current valuation remains high, making it a hold. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 15
Automatic Data Processing: A Powerful New Dividend King Is Born
Summary Automatic Data Processing's 10% dividend hike earlier this month made it the newest addition to the vaunted Dividend Kings. The company's revenue and adjusted diluted EPS exceeded analysts' expectations for its fiscal Q1. ADP's balance sheet is a financial fortress. Now 6% overvalued, the stock's valuation is the inverse of when I last covered it. ADP looks poised to generate 5% annual total returns through FY 2027. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 14
Automatic Data Processing: Don't Underestimate The Threat Of AI
Summary The threat of AI, evidenced by companies like Klarna dropping established providers, could drastically reduce ADP's competitive edge and revenue. ADP's share repurchase program and steady net income growth offer some financial stability, but AI poses significant disruption risks to the industry. My conservative assumptions for ADP's future, including 5% sales growth and 20% net profit margin, indicate limited upside potential over the next 5 years. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/30/2028 | 24,380 | 5,198 | 10,354 | 6,125 | 13 |
| 6/30/2027 | 23,068 | 4,830 | 7,657 | 5,757 | 16 |
| 6/30/2026 | 21,822 | 4,472 | 6,214 | 5,425 | 16 |
| 3/31/2026 | 21,600 | 4,346 | 4,841 | 5,452 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 21,214 | 4,235 | 4,185 | 4,740 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 20,903 | 4,136 | 4,210 | 4,758 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 20,561 | 4,080 | 4,393 | 4,940 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 20,203 | 3,998 | 4,243 | 4,801 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 19,903 | 3,934 | 4,196 | 4,773 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 19,523 | 3,849 | 4,079 | 4,656 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 19,203 | 3,752 | 3,594 | 4,158 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 18,912 | 3,699 | 3,485 | 4,043 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 18,586 | 3,558 | 3,391 | 3,949 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 18,309 | 3,492 | 3,250 | 3,816 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 18,012 | 3,412 | 3,636 | 4,208 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 17,662 | 3,261 | 3,360 | 3,935 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 17,247 | 3,146 | 2,931 | 3,502 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 16,882 | 3,027 | 3,140 | 3,696 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 16,498 | 2,949 | 2,546 | 3,100 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 16,108 | 2,862 | 2,310 | 2,839 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 15,697 | 2,744 | 2,587 | 3,121 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 15,367 | 2,697 | 2,218 | 2,733 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 15,005 | 2,599 | 2,587 | 3,093 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 14,645 | 2,472 | 2,616 | 3,217 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 14,591 | 2,482 | 2,507 | 3,084 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 14,565 | 2,486 | 2,484 | 3,075 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 14,590 | 2,467 | 2,410 | 3,026 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 14,692 | 2,530 | 2,465 | 2,982 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 14,473 | 2,463 | N/A | 2,888 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 14,296 | 2,370 | N/A | 2,972 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 14,110 | 2,293 | N/A | 2,688 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 13,947 | 1,958 | N/A | 2,661 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 13,815 | 1,866 | N/A | 2,772 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 13,561 | 1,978 | N/A | 2,420 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 13,274 | 1,885 | N/A | 2,515 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 13,076 | 2,010 | N/A | 2,267 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 12,791 | 1,937 | N/A | 1,960 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 12,540 | 1,777 | N/A | 2,041 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 12,372 | 1,788 | N/A | 2,126 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 12,213 | 1,750 | N/A | 2,332 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 12,051 | 1,694 | N/A | 2,223 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 11,871 | 1,525 | N/A | 2,118 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 11,668 | 1,493 | N/A | 1,897 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 11,464 | 1,468 | N/A | 1,676 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 11,240 | 1,426 | N/A | 1,814 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 11,086 | 1,417 | N/A | 1,637 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 10,939 | 1,377 | N/A | 1,974 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ADP's forecast earnings growth (6.2% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: ADP's earnings (6.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.6% per year).
High Growth Earnings: ADP's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: ADP's revenue (4.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.5% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ADP's revenue (4.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: ADP's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (60.7%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 20:02 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/06/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. is covered by 40 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| null null | Argus Research Company |
| Mark Marcon | Baird |
| Ramsey El-Assal | Barclays |