BlackSky Technology Future Growth
Future criteria checks 5/6
BlackSky Technology is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 67.7% and 26.3% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 69.8% per annum.
Key information
67.7%
Earnings growth rate
69.82%
EPS growth rate
| Professional Services earnings growth | 14.7% |
| Revenue growth rate | 26.3% |
| Future return on equity | n/a |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 31 Aug 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Aug 09
BlackSky Technology Finally Delivers
Summary BlackSky Technology Inc. delivered strong 2Q26 results, with revenue up 50% YoY to $33.3 million, driven by Gen-3 subscription adoption. Gen-3 constellation is now a genuine revenue and earnings engine, producing a $100 million annualized run rate for high-margin imagery and AI services. Adjusted EBITDA reached $4.7 million (14.2% margin), with flat operating expenses despite higher revenue, signaling meaningful operating leverage as Gen-3 scales. I remain buy-rated on BKSY, seeing accelerating recurring revenue, expanding margins, and multiple growth vectors supporting significant upside as the business scales. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 08
BKSY: Gen 3 AI And Defense Contracts Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for BlackSky Technology from $20.00 to $34.00, citing recent price target revisions across the Street as well as updated assumptions on revenue growth, profitability, and future P/E levels. Analyst Commentary Recent research on BlackSky Technology shows that not all market watchers are aligned with the higher fair value estimate, and some are flagging risks around how much of the recent share price move is backed by fundamentals versus sentiment around the broader space sector.
Narrative Update • Jun 24
BKSY: Government Space Contracts And AI Satellites Will Drive Future Upside
BlackSky Technology's analyst price target remains at $50, as analysts point to recent stock appreciation tied to broader space sector excitement and see limited additional upside based on current fundamentals. Analyst Commentary Recent research on BlackSky Technology highlights a split view, with the current US$50 price target framed against a rapid share price move that some analysts attribute largely to broader space sector enthusiasm rather than company specific developments.Analysis Article • Jun 22
BlackSky Technology (BKSY) Stock Could Be 28.4% Undervalued After Weaker Quarterly Results
BlackSky Technology (BKSY) is back in focus after a year over year drop in quarterly revenue and net profit, which raised fresh questions about operational efficiency, growth potential, and the company’s current valuation. See our latest analysis for BlackSky Technology. The weaker quarter and cautious technical signals seem to have knocked momentum for BlackSky Technology, with the share price down 39.44% over the past 30 days and 10.58% over the past week. Even so, the year to date share...Narrative Update • Jun 09
BKSY: Government Space Domain Contracts Will Drive Gen 3 Upside Potential
Analysts have revised their price target for BlackSky Technology to $50, citing updated assumptions around higher revenue growth, a different profit margin profile, and a higher future P/E multiple as key drivers of the change. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a mixed but active view on BlackSky Technology, with several bullish analysts adjusting price targets and one major firm shifting to a more neutral stance at a US$50 target.
Narrative Update • May 26
BKSY: Overvaluation Risk Will Persist As Domestic Volume Recovery Remains Uncertain
Analysts have lifted their price target on BlackSky Technology from $27.63 to $40.50, citing updated assumptions around faster revenue growth, a lower discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple, despite more conservative profit margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research has focused on how BlackSky Technology is executing against its growth plans, how that ties into valuation assumptions, and where the risk and opportunity might sit for you as an investor.Narrative Update • May 04
BKSY: Overvaluation Risk Will Hinge On Domestic Volume Recovery Through 2026
Analysts have raised their average price target on BlackSky stock to around $27, up from about $23. They cited stronger Q4 execution, steady international demand and potential benefits from growing interest in low cost, scalable defense and surveillance solutions.Narrative Update • Apr 20
BKSY: Defense Demand And Gen 3 Ramp Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have nudged the average BlackSky Technology price target higher by $4 to $27, pointing to stronger Q4 execution, resilient international demand, and a view that current outlooks still include some conservatism around domestic volume recovery and the Gen-3 constellation ramp. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a constructive tone around BlackSky Technology, with several bullish analysts revisiting their valuation work following the latest Q4 and full-year updates.Narrative Update • Apr 05
BKSY: Rising Defense And Counter Drone Demand Will Drive Long Term Upside
Analysts have raised their price target on BlackSky Technology to $27, citing stronger Q4 execution, resilient international demand, and a supportive 2026 outlook, along with ongoing interest in the company as a secondary play on growing defense and counter drone needs. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are pointing to stronger Q4 execution, expanding international demand, and progress on the Gen 3 constellation as key reasons for their more constructive stance on BlackSky Technology.Narrative Update • Mar 21
BKSY: International Defense Demand And 2026 Guidance Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts now estimate BlackSky’s fair value at approximately $27.63 per share, up from about $27.29, citing recent price target revisions in the $23 to $27 range and continued interest in its position as a secondary beneficiary of evolving defense and intelligence demand. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates around BlackSky focus on how the company is executing against demand for defense and intelligence data, how that execution lines up with current valuation targets, and what could support or pressure those targets over the next few years.Narrative Update • Mar 07
BKSY: Rising Defense Demand And Gen 3 Rollout Will Drive Long Term Upside
Narrative Update: BlackSky Technology The updated analyst price target for BlackSky Technology reflects a modest fair value adjustment, alongside higher projected profit margins and a lower, though still very large, forward P/E multiple of about 132x. Analysts point to solid Q4 execution, ongoing international demand, and potential benefits from rising interest in lower cost defense and intelligence solutions.Narrative Update • Feb 21
BKSY: New Gen 3 Defense Contracts Will Support Long Term Upside
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target framework for BlackSky Technology, reflecting small parameter updates to the discount rate, revenue growth outlook, profit margin assumptions, and a lower future P/E multiple. Together, these changes point to a slightly different risk and return balance around the current fair value estimate of about $40.08 per share.Narrative Update • Feb 07
BKSY: New Equity Offering And Gen 3 Rollout Will Restrain Returns
Analysts have reiterated a fair value estimate of $20.00 for BlackSky Technology, citing slightly adjusted assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E that together fine tune, rather than overhaul, their outlook on the stock. What's in the News BlackSky secured multiple Gen-3 Assured services contracts with a new international defense customer, described as totaling seven figures and focused on time sensitive tactical ISR needs and space based monitoring integrated into existing intelligence workflows (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Jan 28
BlackSky Technology Inc.'s (NYSE:BKSY) 39% Jump Shows Its Popularity With Investors
BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 39% after a shaky period...Narrative Update • Jan 23
BKSY: Gradual Gen 3 Rollout Will Pressure Forward Returns
Narrative Update Overview Analysts now place BlackSky Technology's fair value at US$20.00, reduced from US$24.00. They cite updated revenue and EBITDA estimates that reflect a more gradual Gen-3 constellation rollout and ongoing budget uncertainty.Narrative Update • Jan 09
BKSY: Gradual Gen 3 Rollout Will Support Long Term Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target on BlackSky Technology to US$20 from US$24, citing revised expectations for a more gradual Gen-3 constellation rollout and continued budget uncertainty, which also leads them to lower revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary around BlackSky reflects a mix of caution on timing and continued interest in the long term potential of the business.Narrative Update • Dec 26
BKSY: Future Gen 3 Rollout Will Drive Long Term Upside
Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on BlackSky Technology, trimming fair value estimates by about $1.25 per share to approximately $40.59. They are factoring in a slower Gen 3 constellation rollout and ongoing budget uncertainty, which temper near term revenue and EBITDA expectations.Analysis Article • Dec 14
BlackSky Technology Inc.'s (NYSE:BKSY) P/S Is Still On The Mark Following 38% Share Price Bounce
BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 38% in...Narrative Update • Dec 12
BKSY: Future Contract Wins Will Drive Confidence In Long Term Upside
Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on BlackSky Technology to about $41.84 per share, down from $31.00, citing more conservative revenue and EBITDA expectations tied to a slower Gen-3 constellation rollout and ongoing budget uncertainty. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts acknowledge the trimmed price target and reduced forward estimates but continue to see long term strategic value in BlackSky's differentiated real time geospatial intelligence platform.Narrative Update • Oct 24
Gen-3 Satellite Advancements Will Drive International Expansion And Defense Opportunities
Analysts have slightly raised their price target for BlackSky Technology to $27.29 per share, citing modest adjustments to the discount rate and profit margin projections. They have maintained an optimistic outlook on revenue growth.Analysis Article • Oct 18
BlackSky Technology Inc. (NYSE:BKSY) Looks Just Right With A 27% Price Jump
BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period...Narrative Update • Oct 10
Gen-3 Satellite And Spectra Analytics Will Expand International Markets
Analysts have raised their price target for BlackSky Technology from $25.29 to $27.29, citing strong year-to-date performance and a shift toward a more balanced risk/reward outlook, even with recent valuation concerns. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates have provided a nuanced view on BlackSky Technology following its substantial year-to-date rally.Narrative Update • Sep 13
Gen-3 Satellite And Spectra Analytics Will Expand International Markets
Driven by major contract wins, strong government demand, and clear technology differentiation—although tempered by valuation concerns after significant share price gains—analysts have raised BlackSky Technology’s consensus price target modestly from $24.38 to $25.29. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight BlackSky's selection for the $200M Luno B contract and the $1.02B EOCL contract as key drivers of future revenue and market validation.Analysis Article • Aug 19
BlackSky Technology Inc.'s (NYSE:BKSY) Stock Retreats 26% But Revenues Haven't Escaped The Attention Of Investors
NYSE:BKSY 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore BlackSky Technology's Fair Values from the Community and select...Analysis Article • Jul 04
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By BlackSky Technology Inc.'s (NYSE:BKSY) 90% Share Price Surge
BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 90% gain in the last month...Analysis Article • May 06
Market Participants Recognise BlackSky Technology Inc.'s (NYSE:BKSY) Revenues Pushing Shares 27% Higher
Those holding BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 27% in...
New Narrative • Mar 30
Gen-3 Satellite Rollout Will Expand Global Constellation
The Gen-3 satellite launch and expanded government contracts drive demand, revenue, and future growth, enhancing BlackSky's competitive advantage.Seeking Alpha • Mar 25
BlackSky: Strong Growth And Improving Margins
Summary BlackSky has successfully launched its first Gen-3 satellite, which is now providing high-resolution imagery. BlackSky also continues to have considerable commercial success, with the company's backlog providing support for expected strong growth in 2025. BlackSky's margins continue to improve with scale, although CapEx remains elevated, and an accounting change will weigh on margins in the near-term. BlackSky's valuation appears low given current growth expectations and the fact the company should transition to profitability over the next 1–2 years. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 11
With A 44% Price Drop For BlackSky Technology Inc. (NYSE:BKSY) You'll Still Get What You Pay For
BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough...Analysis Article • Mar 09
US$18.57 - That's What Analysts Think BlackSky Technology Inc. (NYSE:BKSY) Is Worth After These Results
BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) just released its latest yearly report and things are not looking great...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 257 | 6 | 21 | 60 | 4 |
| 12/31/2027 | 193 | -32 | -28 | 40 | 8 |
| 12/31/2026 | 142 | -65 | -52 | -5 | 9 |
| 6/30/2026 | 109 | -67 | -113 | -54 | N/A |
| 3/31/2026 | 98 | -87 | -111 | -58 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 107 | -70 | -75 | -28 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 102 | -89 | -64 | -21 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 105 | -86 | -22 | 19 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 107 | -54 | -20 | 25 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 102 | -57 | -57 | -6 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 107 | -42 | -55 | -6 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 106 | -28 | -50 | -7 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 100 | -52 | -47 | -5 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 94 | -54 | -61 | -17 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 78 | -65 | -92 | -21 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 74 | -79 | -99 | -32 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 70 | -72 | -95 | -48 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 65 | -75 | -89 | -44 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 57 | -54 | -64 | -55 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 48 | -87 | -67 | -61 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 41 | -95 | -71 | -56 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 34 | -244 | -55 | -54 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 29 | -260 | -44 | -43 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 26 | -227 | -31 | -31 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 24 | -202 | -25 | -24 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 21 | -48 | -32 | -32 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 14 | -60 | N/A | -26 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: BKSY is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.7%).
Earnings vs Market: BKSY is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: BKSY is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: BKSY's revenue (26.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.5% per year).
High Growth Revenue: BKSY's revenue (26.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if BKSY's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/10 23:31 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/10 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
BlackSky Technology Inc. is covered by 10 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Austin Moeller | Canaccord Genuity |
| Jeffrey Van Rhee | Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC |
| Xin Yu | Deutsche Bank |