Mattel, Inc.

NasdaqGS:MAT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.4b

Mattel Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Mattel is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 0.8% and 3.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 23% in 3 years.

Key information

0.8%

Earnings growth rate

4.95%

EPS growth rate

Leisure earnings growth37.4%
Revenue growth rate3.7%
Future return on equity23.02%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated06 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Aug 01

Analysts Are Updating Their Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results

Last week saw the newest second-quarter earnings release from Mattel, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MAT ), an important milestone in...

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Apr 30

Mattel: Lackluster Execution Limits Upside (Rating Downgrade)

Summary Mattel is downgraded to 'hold' after persistent underperformance, margin pressures, and disappointing execution despite a surprise Q1 profit. Tariff headwinds are fading, but oil-driven cost inflation and continued weakness in the toddler segment offset potential margin recovery for MAT. MAT's Q1 benefited from a one-time accounting gain; underlying free cash flow guidance is cut to $300–375 million, with a 7% free cash flow yield. Buybacks accelerated on share weakness, but with limited growth prospects and downside risk to margin guidance, I see no near-term catalyst for MAT shares. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 28

MAT: 2026 Spending And Tariff Relief Will Shape Content Option Upside

Analysts have trimmed their average price targets for Mattel by a few dollars, reflecting a mix of cautious views around 2026 investment spending and recent target cuts, along with supportive commentary on potential EPS tailwinds from lower tariffs, new content and entertainment optionality. Analyst Commentary Street research around Mattel has become more mixed, with several firms cutting price targets or shifting to a more cautious stance even as others see upside tied to content, entertainment options and potential tariff related EPS support.
Narrative Update • Apr 14

MAT: Content And Entertainment Expansion Will Drive Stronger Long-Term Outlook

Mattel's updated analyst price target shows a modest adjustment around $27, as analysts balance recent target cuts with expectations that investments for 2026, potential tariff tailwinds, and content and entertainment initiatives could influence earnings power over time. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Mattel shows a mix of target cuts and fresh initiations, with some firms highlighting potential earnings support from 2026 investment spending, lower tariffs, and new content and entertainment efforts.
Narrative Update • Mar 31

MAT: 2026 Investment Spend And Tariff Relief Will Shape Balanced Upside

Analysts have modestly adjusted their price expectations for Mattel, with recent targets ranging from $17 to $30, as they weigh a 2026 investment year against potential catalysts in content, entertainment tie ins, and possible tariff relief. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Mattel reflects a mix of optimism around long term growth initiatives and caution around near term execution and spending plans, especially as 2026 is framed as an investment year.
Narrative Update • Mar 16

MAT: Content And Gaming Expansion Will Drive Stronger Long-Term Outlook

The analyst price target for Mattel has shifted from a fair value estimate of $29 to about $27.16, as analysts weigh higher assumed revenue growth and a slightly richer future P/E against lower projected profit margins, a modestly higher discount rate, and a recent mix of cautious and supportive research views around 2026 investment spending, content opportunities, and tariff related EPS tailwinds. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary around Mattel reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with several Bullish analysts pointing to potential upside tied to content, new growth initiatives, and possible tariff related EPS benefits, while others highlight uncertainties around 2026 investment spending and the consumer backdrop for toys.
Narrative Update • Mar 02

MAT: 2026 Execution And Macro Toy Demand Risks Will Limit Upside

Analysts have adjusted their price targets on Mattel in a mixed way, with some firms lifting targets toward $18 to $30 on product lineup strength and clearer growth initiatives, while others have trimmed estimates by $4 to $7 and moved to more cautious ratings, reflecting a more balanced view of risk and reward. Analyst Commentary Street research on Mattel has shifted toward a more balanced, and in some cases cautious, stance.
Analysis Article • Feb 17

We Think You Can Look Beyond Mattel's (NASDAQ:MAT) Lackluster Earnings

The most recent earnings report from Mattel, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MAT ) was disappointing for shareholders. However, our...
Narrative Update • Feb 16

MAT: 2026 Toy Demand Headwinds And Execution Risks Will Restrain Upside

The analyst price target for Mattel has shifted from $20 to $14, as analysts factor in more cautious assumptions around growth, margins and valuation multiples following a series of recent downgrades and target cuts across the Street. Analyst Commentary Across the Street, recent research on Mattel has tilted more cautious, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets and flagging execution and growth risks that they feel are not fully reflected in the current share price.
Narrative Update • Feb 02

MAT: Fair Outlook As 2026 Toy Demand And New Initiatives Shape Upside

Analysts have adjusted their price targets on Mattel in mixed fashion, including at least one increase to US$30 and one reaffirmed at US$21. This reflects a balance of views that hinges on progress in newer growth initiatives and caution around the toy market outlook into 2026.
Narrative Update • Jan 19

MAT: Fair Outlook Balances New Initiatives With Toy Cycle Execution Risks

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Mattel from $17 to $20. They cite a higher assumed future P/E multiple and updated views on revenue growth, while balancing this with a higher discount rate and slightly lower profit margin expectations amid mixed recent rating and price target actions on the stock.
Narrative Update • Jan 05

MAT: Expanded Digital And Licensing Platforms Will Drive Stronger Long-Term Outlook

Analysts have slightly raised their price target on Mattel to approximately $29 per share. This reflects modestly lower growth and margin expectations, offset by a higher anticipated future earnings multiple.
Narrative Update • Dec 14

MAT: Digital And Licensing Expansion Will Drive Stronger Long-Term Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Mattel to $29 from $30, citing a higher perceived discount rate and a lower assumed future P/E multiple, which more than offset modestly stronger expectations for revenue growth and profit margins. What's in the News Mattel reiterated its 2025 guidance, expecting constant currency net sales growth of 1% to 3%, signaling steady underlying demand despite market volatility (company guidance).
Analysis Article • Aug 01

Analysts Are Updating Their Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results

Last week saw the newest second-quarter earnings release from Mattel, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MAT ), an important milestone in...
Analysis Article • Jul 23

Here's Why Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
Analysis Article • Jul 02

Investors Will Want Mattel's (NASDAQ:MAT) Growth In ROCE To Persist

To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Typically, we'll want to...
Analysis Article • May 21

There's No Escaping Mattel, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MAT) Muted Earnings Despite A 34% Share Price Rise

Those holding Mattel, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MAT ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 34% in the last...
Analysis Article • Apr 24

Here's Why Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Analysis Article • Apr 06

Investors Don't See Light At End Of Mattel, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MAT) Tunnel

When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 17x, you may...
Analysis Article • Mar 18

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT)

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 11

Mattel Has Good Long-Term Outlook, But Is A Short-Term Hold

Summary Mattel's stock has been doing well, recently trading near its 52-week high after strong earnings. The company reported strong margins, with adjusted gross margin at 50.8%, up 200 basis points, thanks to efficiency measures and favorable currency-exchange effects. MAT has exciting prospects for the long term, most notably to me, being the company's further push into movies and television on the heels of the 'Barbie' success. There is a lot of volatility in the marketplace with tariff uncertainty, and unlike competitor Hasbro, Mattel does not have a dividend yield. For now, I rate the stock as a 'Hold', but it could become a 'Buy' on a significant pullback or compelling strategic progress in entertainment. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Jan 13

Is Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Using Too Much Debt?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Seeking Alpha • Jan 11

Mattel: Diversification Plan Moves Into Manga Comic Book Partnership With TokyoPop

Summary Mattel's move into cult comic phenomenon Japanese manga comics is not yet understood by Mr. Market. Revenue declines are being aggressively addressed with new field for legacy IPs. TOKYOPOP has books that have sold 100m copies. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Dec 11

Mattel, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MAT) P/S Is On The Mark

It's not a stretch to say that Mattel, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:MAT ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.2x right now seems...
Analysis Article • Nov 26

Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? In a...
Seeking Alpha • Oct 29

Mattel: A Solid IP Treasure Trove Acquisition Candidate Hiding In Plain Sight

Summary Top global toy maker Mattel is a solid little company ripe for an acquisition by one of the content-short techies. Its gross margins and cost controls contribute value that a stagnant revenue line cannot until its TV and film IP value is recognized. We think at $19 it's a strong buy with low risk. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:MAT - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20286,1414575387686
12/31/20275,95743441763411
12/31/20265,67348316451211
3/31/20265,383499335545N/A
12/31/20255,348398411593N/A
9/30/20255,228432488659N/A
6/30/20255,336526530743N/A
3/31/20255,397530582790N/A
12/31/20245,380542598801N/A
9/30/20245,354548688888N/A
6/30/20245,429322826978N/A
3/31/20245,4362939641,112N/A
12/31/20235,441214709870N/A
9/30/20235,22283461638N/A
6/30/20235,059227361542N/A
3/31/20235,208266187380N/A
12/31/20225,435394256443N/A
9/30/20225,828604303467N/A
6/30/20225,8341,109147302N/A
3/31/20225,6251,037226377N/A
12/31/20215,458903334485N/A
9/30/20215,289806320472N/A
6/30/20215,163322374514N/A
3/31/20214,869217305424N/A
12/31/20204,588124167286N/A
9/30/20204,436-5130253N/A
6/30/20204,281-246-10112N/A
3/31/20204,409-24372199N/A
12/31/20194,505-219N/A168N/A
9/30/20194,555-204N/A190N/A
6/30/20194,511-268N/A129N/A
3/31/20194,496-398N/A54N/A
12/31/20184,515-533N/A-27N/A
9/30/20184,601-825N/A-19N/A
6/30/20184,724-1,434N/A-35N/A
3/31/20184,855-1,252N/A9N/A
12/31/20174,881-1,055N/A-28N/A
9/30/20175,105-598N/A186N/A
6/30/20175,340240N/A286N/A
3/31/20175,323276N/A374N/A
12/31/20165,453312N/A595N/A
9/30/20165,622357N/A626N/A
6/30/20165,618344N/A735N/A
3/31/20165,649351N/A698N/A
12/31/20155,703366N/A735N/A
9/30/20155,697300N/A811N/A
6/30/20155,926407N/A727N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MAT's forecast earnings growth (0.8% per year) is below the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: MAT's earnings (0.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MAT's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MAT's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MAT's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MAT's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (23%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 15:04
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Mattel, Inc. is covered by 32 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John StaszakArgus Research Company
Felicia Kantor HendrixBarclays
Alok PatelBerenberg