Peloton Interactive Future Growth
Future criteria checks 4/6
Peloton Interactive is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 48% and 2.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 43.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 154.5% in 3 years.
Key information
48.0%
Earnings growth rate
43.37%
EPS growth rate
| Leisure earnings growth | 37.4% |
| Revenue growth rate | 2.6% |
| Future return on equity | 154.45% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 07 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 05
PTON: Tariff Relief And Subscription Plans Will Reshape Long Term Profit Potential
Peloton Interactive's updated analyst price target has shifted from about $16.64 to $15.28, as analysts factor in tariff related cost pressures, tougher competition and recalibrated P/E assumptions, despite revised expectations for revenue growth and profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Peloton reflects a mixed backdrop, with several price target cuts but also a pocket of optimism as some bullish analysts reassess the impact of tariff policy changes and the company’s execution plans.
Narrative Update • Apr 20
PTON: Future Returns Will Depend On Execution Under Intensifying Competitive Pressure
Peloton Interactive's analyst price target has been revised lower by $3.25, as analysts factor in tougher competition, multiple price target cuts across major firms, and tariff related uncertainty, partly offset by at least one firm keeping a positive stance after reviewing Section 232 developments. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Peloton Interactive reflects a cautious tone, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets and reassessing risk, while one major firm maintains a constructive view after reviewing tariff developments.Seeking Alpha • Apr 10
The Reasons I Am Avoiding Owning Peloton Interactive Just Yet
Summary Peloton Interactive faces declining sales, persistent net losses, and ongoing shareholder dilution, prompting a sell rating. PTON’s fundamentals are pressured by weak U.S. consumer sentiment and elevated energy costs, with no near-term catalysts expected. Heavy insider selling and lack of insider buying further undermine confidence in PTON’s outlook and valuation. Potential upside exists from PTON’s planned gym expansion, but execution and impact remain uncertain until late 2026. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 06
PTON: Future Subscription Engagement Will Support Thesis Despite Fiercer Competition And Cost Reset
Analyst price targets on Peloton Interactive have been reduced by several dollars per share to reflect what analysts describe as tougher competition and more cautious expectations for the business, which in turn has led to a modestly higher assumed future P/E multiple and slightly lower revenue growth, profit margin, and discount rate inputs in updated models. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Peloton Interactive points to a cluster of price target cuts and a downgrade, with most firms adjusting their models to reflect tougher competition and more conservative expectations for the business.Narrative Update • Mar 23
PTON: Future Subscription Engagement Will Underpin Resilient Thesis Despite Competitive Pressure
Peloton Interactive's analyst price target has been reduced by $0.20 as analysts factor in a slightly higher discount rate, modestly softer revenue growth expectations, and a marginally lower future P/E multiple, even though profit margin assumptions remain relatively stable. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Peloton Interactive has focused on recalibrating expectations, with multiple firms reducing price targets and one firm shifting its rating to Hold, citing tougher competition and execution risk.Narrative Update • Mar 09
PTON: Future Returns Will Hinge On Restructuring Amid Fierce Competition
Peloton Interactive's analyst price targets have moved lower by several dollars to around $4 as analysts factor in tougher competition and more cautious expectations for the business, with only modest tweaks to growth, margins and P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Peloton reflects a broadly cautious tone, with a series of price target cuts clustered around the low single digits and at least one downgrade to a neutral stance.Narrative Update • Feb 23
PTON: Future Returns Will Depend On Withstanding Fierce Competition Pressure
The analyst price target for Peloton Interactive has been reduced by $2. Analysts attribute this change to softer revenue expectations, a higher required return on the stock, and lower assumed future P/E multiples, partly offset by slightly stronger projected profit margins.Narrative Update • Feb 09
PTON: Future Execution On Engagement And Retention Will Offset Recent Setbacks
Peloton Interactive's fair value estimate has been reduced from $10.43 to $8.08 as analysts reset price targets across the Street. This reflects updated assumptions for subscriber trends, margins, discount rates, and future P/E multiples following recent research updates.Analysis Article • Feb 06
More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PTON) Shares After Tumbling 33%
To the annoyance of some shareholders, Peloton Interactive, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PTON ) shares are down a considerable 33% in...Narrative Update • Jan 25
PTON: Future Outlook Will Balance AI Coaching Adoption With Elevated Subscriber Churn Risk
Peloton Interactive's updated analyst price target has shifted modestly. This reflects a mix of reduced subscriber expectations from some analysts, who now see greater churn in the model, and slightly higher targets from others following recent earnings adjustments.Narrative Update • Jan 10
PTON: Execution On Engagement And Retention Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Analysts have modestly adjusted their outlook on Peloton Interactive, with published price targets now ranging between about US$6.50 and US$8.25. This reflects updated subscriber assumptions and recent earnings model revisions.Narrative Update • Dec 16
PTON: Future Outlook Will Balance AI Coaching Opportunity With Elevated Churn Risk
Peloton Interactive's fair value estimate has been nudged higher by $1.00 per share to $6.00. Analysts are balancing modestly improved long term growth and margin expectations, including benefits from product and pricing initiatives, against a more cautious view on churn and subscriber additions.Narrative Update • Dec 01
PTON: Major Product Overhaul And Higher Prices Will Drive Future Member Engagement
Peloton Interactive’s analyst price target has shifted slightly lower, from $10.48 to $10.43, as analysts point to evolving subscriber expectations and uncertainty about the impact of new product features in light of recent price increases. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst updates reflect a mix of optimism and caution regarding Peloton Interactive's outlook, with opinions divided on execution, valuation, and prospects for subscriber growth as business strategies evolve.Narrative Update • Nov 17
PTON: Major Product Overhaul And Price Increases Will Drive Stronger User Engagement
Peloton Interactive’s analyst fair value price target has increased from $10.18 to $10.48, as analysts cite product upgrades, expanded wellness offerings, and higher subscription and hardware pricing as supportive of an improving long-term outlook. This comes despite questions around subscriber growth amid these changes.Analysis Article • Nov 09
Earnings Beat: Peloton Interactive, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
Investors in Peloton Interactive, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PTON ) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.5% to close at US$7.66...Narrative Update • Nov 02
PTON: Major Product Overhaul And AI Integration Will Drive User Experience Forward
Peloton Interactive's analyst price targets have recently increased, as analysts cite the company's comprehensive product overhaul, new AI-powered features, and higher pricing as drivers of improved outlook. This comes despite concerns about upgrade cycles and potential subscriber churn.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Digital And Holistic Fitness Will Redefine Future Markets
Peloton Interactive's average analyst price target has risen, with increases such as BofA's move from $9.50 to $11 and Telsey's from $8 to $9. Analysts cite recent product portfolio enhancements, AI-driven features and pricing adjustments as key drivers behind their revised outlooks.Narrative Update • Oct 04
Digital And Holistic Fitness Will Redefine Future Markets
Peloton Interactive's fair value estimate has been raised from $9.84 to $10.18 per share. This change reflects analysts' greater confidence in the company's product innovation, price increases, and evolving wellness platform, despite some concerns around customer churn and upgrade cycles.Narrative Update • Aug 08
Digital And Holistic Fitness Will Redefine Future Markets
Despite a notable decline in revenue growth expectations, Peloton Interactive's higher future P/E multiple has driven the consensus analyst price target up from $8.80 to $9.78. Valuation Changes Summary of Valuation Changes for Peloton Interactive The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly risen from $8.80 to $9.78.Analysis Article • Jul 24
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PTON) P/S
With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 1.2x in the Leisure industry in the United States, you could...Seeking Alpha • Mar 31
Peloton: A Turnaround Story That Hasn't Turned (Rating Downgrade)
Summary I was bullish on Peloton Interactive, Inc. when it was undervalued, but its financials no longer support a strong investment case. While free cash flow is improving, the company’s lack of revenue growth makes it hard to justify a bullish stance. Peloton’s high operating expenses and net debt position mean shareholders won’t see real value creation for at least two years. At 12x forward free cash flow, PTON stock isn’t cheap enough given its uncertain path to growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Mar 21
Partnering With Costco Will Expand Member Reach In The Future
Innovation in products and experiences is set to boost member acquisition, engagement, and revenue growth.Analysis Article • Mar 09
Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PTON) Popularity With Investors Under Threat As Stock Sinks 26%
To the annoyance of some shareholders, Peloton Interactive, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PTON ) shares are down a considerable 26% in...Seeking Alpha • Feb 24
Peloton: Stable And Poised For Growth
Summary Peloton's initial pandemic-driven success led to overexpansion under CEO John Foley, resulting in a stock crash and his eventual ousting. Post-Foley, Peloton implemented restructuring programs, including job cuts and operational wind-downs, to stabilize the business and improve margins. These measures have been effective, with Peloton raising its FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $300 - $350 million and projecting free cash flow of at least $200 million. The company appears poised for future growth, having addressed the issues that previously threatened its solvency. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 08
Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their Peloton Interactive, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTON) Price Target To US$9.96
It's been a good week for Peloton Interactive, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PTON ) shareholders, because the company has just released...Analysis Article • Jan 21
At US$8.27, Is It Time To Put Peloton Interactive, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTON) On Your Watch List?
Peloton Interactive, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PTON ), might not be a large cap stock, but it led the NASDAQGS gainers with a...Seeking Alpha • Jan 14
Peloton: Valuation Not As Attractive As You Might Think
Summary Peloton's stock appears overvalued despite a low P/S ratio and recent price gains, due to declining sales and a weak connected fitness market. The connected fitness industry is in decline, with user numbers falling since the pandemic and expected to continue decreasing until 2027. PTON's user base and revenue are shrinking faster than the industry average, raising concerns about its market share and future growth prospects. Despite improved profitability metrics, the Company's high market cap relative to the industry's future value and lack of growth make it a sell. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 05
Peloton: Encouraging Progress, But Members Are Still Declining
Summary Shares of Peloton have rebounded over the past few months over excitement about the company's cost-cutting plan and its incoming CEO, Peter Stern (a former Apple Fitness+ executive). The company has also struck a new partnership with Truemed to enable U.S. customers to use HSA/FSA funds for Peloton purchases. Still, we are concerned about declining subscriber counts. The company expects to lose 9% of its subscriber base in FY25. Trading at ~16x forward adjusted EBITDA, Peloton is already priced at a premium despite tremendous execution risks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Dec 17
Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PTON) 32% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up
Peloton Interactive, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PTON ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 32% gain in the last month...Seeking Alpha • Dec 05
Peloton Interactive: Pedaling Hard, Going Nowhere
Summary Peloton's restructuring efforts are on track, but revenue is deteriorating, with a significant decline in hardware sales and subscriptions expected to continue. Despite cost-saving measures, PTON's share price is overvalued, with negative revenue growth and high debt-to-equity ratio making it relatively unattractive as compared to its peers. PTON's new software initiatives like Strength+ and Team aim to drive growth, but their impact on revenue remains uncertain. Investors should avoid PTON stock for now and monitor its cost restructuring progress; potential future re-evaluation if revenue stabilizes despite cost cuts. Valuation analysis based on PTON's FY2025 EBITDA of $260 million suggests that PTON is slightly overvalued. Further deterioration if PTON is unable to maintain its topline. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 11
Peloton: Big Cost Improvement, Decent CEO Hiring, More Upside Ahead
Summary Peloton's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, with $115 million adjusted EBITDA, driven by significant cost cuts and better-than-expected revenue and subscriber numbers. The company raised its 2025 fiscal year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $240-$290 million, reflecting conservative estimates and potential for further upside. New CEO Peter Stern, with a strong background from Apple and Time Warner, aims to grow subscribers while maintaining cost discipline. Valuation is improving with EBITDA and free cash generation; potential acquirers could pay 5x subscription gross profit, indicating over 50% upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Oct 24
Optimistic Investors Push Peloton Interactive, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTON) Shares Up 32% But Growth Is Lacking
Despite an already strong run, Peloton Interactive, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PTON ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/30/2028 | 2,450 | 190 | 358 | 400 | 8 |
| 6/30/2027 | 2,444 | 136 | 374 | 309 | 20 |
| 6/30/2026 | 2,429 | 22 | 311 | 372 | 17 |
| 3/31/2026 | 2,445 | 23 | 401 | 414 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 2,438 | -51 | 345 | 358 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 2,456 | -104 | 380 | 392 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 2,491 | -119 | 324 | 333 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 2,528 | -171 | 237 | 249 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 2,621 | -291 | 151 | 164 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 2,691 | -393 | 8 | 26 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 2,701 | -552 | -86 | -66 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 2,699 | -763 | -186 | -154 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 2,730 | -872 | -250 | -207 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 2,779 | -1,012 | -307 | -264 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 2,800 | -1,262 | -470 | -388 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 2,837 | -2,275 | -808 | -674 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 3,052 | -2,756 | -1,499 | -1,304 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 3,394 | -2,860 | -1,968 | -1,662 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 3,582 | -2,828 | -2,373 | -2,020 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 3,840 | -1,886 | -2,640 | -2,277 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 4,138 | -1,137 | -2,097 | -1,758 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 4,069 | -634 | -1,472 | -1,113 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 4,022 | -189 | -570 | -240 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 3,692 | 213 | 389 | 687 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 2,954 | 166 | 548 | 854 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 2,356 | 48 | 569 | 765 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 1,826 | -72 | 220 | 376 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 1,442 | -208 | -129 | 16 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 1,234 | -191 | N/A | -96 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 1,031 | -241 | N/A | -155 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 915 | -246 | N/A | -109 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 798 | -209 | N/A | -80 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 435 | -48 | N/A | 50 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 219 | -163 | N/A | -19 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: PTON's forecast earnings growth (48% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: PTON's earnings (48% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: PTON's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: PTON's revenue (2.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: PTON's revenue (2.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: PTON's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (154.5%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 11:45 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/06/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Peloton Interactive, Inc. is covered by 38 analysts. 20 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| null null | Argus Research Company |
| Jasper Hellweg | Argus Research Company |
| Jonathan Komp | Baird |