Chagee Holdings Limited

NasdaqGS:CHA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.1b

Chagee Holdings Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Chagee Holdings is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 27.1% and 10.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 25.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 18.7% in 3 years.

Key information

27.1%

Earnings growth rate

25.36%

EPS growth rate

Hospitality earnings growth18.8%
Revenue growth rate10.6%
Future return on equity18.65%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated09 Jul 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jul 10

CHA: Share Repurchase Plan Will Support Long-Term Returns

Chagee Holdings' analyst price target has shifted from $21.76 to $15.38 as analysts now apply slightly higher discount rates, lower revenue growth and profit margin expectations, and a modestly higher future P/E multiple in their updated models. What’s in the News for Chagee Holdings Chagee Holdings opened its first San Diego teahouse at Westfield UTC on July 10, introducing the company’s first pet friendly concept and reaching 10 U.S. locations, sourced from Business Expansions data.
Seeking Alpha • Jun 30

Chagee: Same-Store Recovery Is Better, But Still Not Enough

Summary Chagee Holdings Limited remains a hold as same-store GMV declines have moderated but not reversed, signaling early stabilization. Active members rose 12% sequentially to 50 million, with strong repurchase rates and recurring customer engagement supporting CHA’s premium brand thesis. Growth initiatives—agile campaigns and new product launches—are diversifying consumption occasions, but durable same-store recovery is not yet proven. Valuation at 8x NTM PE appears cheap, but discount persists due to ongoing same-store and franchise revenue declines; buyback provides support, not a thesis. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 26

CHA: Share Buyback And Franchise Model Shift Will Shape Returns

Analysts have trimmed their price target for Chagee Holdings to $11.00 from $12.42. The change reflects updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate and future P/E expectations.
Narrative Update • Mar 31

Q4 Update - More teahouses, less revenue, more costs

Compared with Q4 2024, Chagee has ~15% more teahouses (7453 to 6440), and yet has 10.8% lower revenues. This is represented by average monthly GMV per teahouse dropping from 456k to 337k RMB (down 26%).
Narrative Update • Dec 14

Q3 Update - Revenue sustained only by growth

Revenues did not grow in line with new teahouse openings, and average monthly GMV is down 30% from the previous year. Rate of teahouse growth per quarter is ~5%.
Analysis Article • Dec 01

Why We're Not Concerned About Chagee Holdings Limited's (NASDAQ:CHA) Share Price

When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 18x, you may...
Analysis Article • Oct 16

A Look At The Fair Value Of Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:CHA)

Key Insights The projected fair value for Chagee Holdings is US$14.53 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With...
New Narrative • Sep 30

Cheap if able to sustain revenue, and a potential bargain if able to turn store openings into revenue growth

Conservative valuation of $24.28 based on sustained revenues of ~RMB3bn/quarter. Potential upside if growth in store openings realises additional revenue.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 21

Chagee Holdings' IPO Offers A Compelling PEG Proposition

Summary Chagee Holdings' IPO surged over 15%, highlighting its rapid growth with 6,440 teahouses and strong sales, making it a compelling investment for China exposure. The company’s impressive growth includes a tenfold increase in teahouses and a significant rise in per-store sales, indicating a robust business model. Chagee's historical PEG ratio of 0.081 is exceptionally low, suggesting significant growth potential nearly unmatched in the consumer discretionary sector. Despite potential risks like market saturation and changing consumer tastes, Chagee's strong earnings and international expansion prospects make CHA stock a strong buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:CHA - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CNY Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202817,3492,0331,7582,4059
12/31/202716,2341,9661,7132,31711
12/31/202614,2291,640-7042,36510
3/31/202613,0618191,0251,477N/A
12/31/202512,9071,0191,1921,644N/A
9/30/202513,2677691,7592,000N/A
6/30/202513,6009892,0572,298N/A
3/31/202513,2921,5172,4332,674N/A
12/31/202412,4061,4352,5962,838N/A
9/30/202411,1181,9592,9542,968N/A
6/30/20249,0211,5212,8972,979N/A
3/31/20246,7301,0442,2472,277N/A
12/31/20234,6405271,9021,934N/A
9/30/20232,8093241,2801,300N/A
12/31/2022492-1453243N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CHA's forecast earnings growth (27.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: CHA's earnings (27.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (18.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CHA's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CHA's revenue (10.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CHA's revenue (10.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CHA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18.7%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/07/10 05:22
End of Day Share Price 2026/07/10 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Chagee Holdings Limited is covered by 13 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Sijie LinChina International Capital Corporation Limited
Jiwei LiuCitic Securities Co., Ltd.
Ya JiangCitic Securities Co., Ltd.