Grand Canyon Education Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Grand Canyon Education's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -2.8%, while the Consumer Services industry saw earnings growing at 25.1% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 5.4% per year. Grand Canyon Education's return on equity is 31.6%, and it has net margins of 19.5%.
Key information
-2.80%
Earnings growth rate
8.50%
EPS growth rate
| Consumer Services Industry Growth | 20.27% |
| Revenue growth rate | 5.36% |
| Return on equity | 31.59% |
| Net Margin | 19.54% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Analysis Article • Jun 17
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Stock Could Be 32.5% Undervalued After Recent Pullback
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) stock has drawn investor attention after recent trading left shares down about 10% over the past month and about 12% over the past 3 months. This has sharpened the focus on fundamentals. See our latest analysis for Grand Canyon Education. At the latest share price of $144.39, Grand Canyon Education has seen short term momentum fade, with the 7 day share price return down 4.19% and the 1 month share price return down 10.37%. The 1 year total shareholder return is...
Narrative Update • Jun 04
LOPE: Future Returns Will Rely On 2026 Margin Outlook
Analysts have maintained their $214 price target on Grand Canyon Education, citing slightly revised assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E that together support a consistent valuation outlook. What's in the News Grand Canyon University introduced an online Associate of Science in Pre-Nursing degree, designed to cover foundational coursework before students enter nursing programs, with credits structured to transfer into the university's accelerated Bachelor of Science in Nursing program.Narrative Update • May 12
LOPE: Future Returns Will Rely On 2026 Margin Guidance
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Grand Canyon Education up by $1 to $214 per share, reflecting updated assumptions that combine slightly lower projected revenue growth with higher profit margins and a lower expected future P/E multiple. What's in the News Company issued earnings guidance for full year 2026, with expected service revenue between US$1,169.3 million and US$1,189.8 million, diluted EPS between US$9.69 and US$10.26, and operating margin between 27.8% and 29.0% (company guidance).Narrative Update • Apr 26
LOPE: Future Returns Will Rely On 2026 Margin Guidance And Buybacks
Analysts have maintained their $213.00 price target for Grand Canyon Education, citing only minor model adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions, which leave their overall valuation view essentially unchanged. What's in the News Completed a share repurchase tranche between October 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, buying 605,730 shares, or 2.19% of shares, for $100.02 million under its existing buyback program (company disclosure).Seeking Alpha • Apr 15
Grand Canyon Education: The 'A Student' That Got Punished For A C
Summary Grand Canyon Education remains a 'Buy,' with a projected 20–25% upside and strong buyback support despite near-term growth slowdown. LOPE continues to outperform the S&P 500, delivering consistent EPS beats and maintaining premium valuation multiples versus peers. FY 2026 growth is expected to moderate, but margin expansion, B2B enrollment, and buybacks should drive EPS and FCF yield near 6%. Key risks include EPS growth decelerating to low single digits and potential market re-rating if execution falters or education becomes commoditized. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Apr 11
LOPE: Future Returns Will Rely On 2026 Margin And EPS Guidance
Analysts have kept their price target for Grand Canyon Education steady at $213, citing largely unchanged assumptions for growth, profitability, and future P/E that support their existing valuation view. What's in the News Completed a share repurchase tranche from October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, buying 605,730 shares for $100.02 million, or 2.19% of shares under the existing program (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 26
LOPE: Future Returns Will Rely On 2026 Margin And EPS Guidance
Analysts have maintained Grand Canyon Education's price target at $213, reflecting largely unchanged assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Completed share repurchases of 605,730 shares, or 2.19% of outstanding shares, between October 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, for $100.02 million under the existing buyback program (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 12
LOPE: Future Returns Will Rely On 2026 Service Revenue And EPS Guidance
Analysts have maintained their price target for Grand Canyon Education at $213, citing consistent views on fair value and only minor adjustments to the discount rate, long-term growth, margin, and P/E assumptions. What's in the News Issued 2026 full year guidance with expected Service revenue between US$1.17b and US$1.19b, Diluted EPS between US$9.55 and US$10.16, and an operating margin range of 27.5% to 28.8% (company guidance).Narrative Update • Feb 26
LOPE: Future Returns Will Rely On Expanded Buybacks And 2026 EPS Guidance
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Grand Canyon Education by about $9.67 to $213, reflecting updates to their fair value work that now incorporate slightly adjusted assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. What's in the News Grand Canyon Education issued earnings guidance for all four quarters of 2026, including Service revenue and diluted EPS ranges, along with operating margin ranges for each period (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 12
LOPE: Future Returns Will Rely On Expanded Buybacks Despite Sector Fraud Short Pressure
Analysts kept their price target on Grand Canyon Education broadly in line with prior views at about $223. The update reflects only minor adjustments to their discount rate and future P/E assumptions, rather than a significant change in the underlying outlook.Narrative Update • Jan 27
LOPE: Future Returns Will Depend On Expanded Buybacks Despite Sector Short Pressure
Analysts have kept their price target for Grand Canyon Education unchanged at US$222.67, citing stable assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E as the basis for maintaining their view. What's in the News Funds managed by Bleecker Street disclosed short positions in several education providers, including Grand Canyon Education, in a report focused on alleged enrollment fraud risks in parts of the sector (Periodical).Narrative Update • Jan 11
LOPE: Future Returns Will Rely On Expanded Buybacks Despite Sector Short Pressure
Analysts have reiterated their price target for Grand Canyon Education at US$222.67 per share, with only small adjustments to inputs such as the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions supporting this unchanged view. What's in the News Funds managed by Bleecker Street disclosed short positions in Grand Canyon Education alongside several other education companies, citing sector wide concerns over alleged enrollment fraud at another operator, Perdoceo Education, in a published report (Periodical).Narrative Update • Dec 24
LOPE: Future Returns Will Rely On Buybacks Amid Sector Short Pressure
Analysts have inched their price target on Grand Canyon Education higher by a de minimis amount to approximately $223, citing essentially unchanged assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future valuation multiples. What's in the News Bleecker Street disclosed a short position in Grand Canyon Education, grouping the company with other education providers it accuses of benefiting from sector wide enrollment fraud.Narrative Update • Dec 10
LOPE: Future Returns Will Rely On Robust Margin Expansion Despite Sector Shorts
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target on Grand Canyon Education from approximately $239 to about $223 per share, citing slightly softer revenue growth assumptions, a marginally higher discount rate, and a lower future P/E multiple, partly offset by improved profit margin expectations. What's in the News Bleecker Street disclosed short positions in several education companies, including Grand Canyon Education, citing sector wide concerns about enrollment fraud and quality of reported metrics (Periodical).Analysis Article • Nov 21
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:LOPE) Shares Slammed 27% But Getting In Cheap Might Be Difficult Regardless
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. ( NASDAQ:LOPE ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a...Analysis Article • Nov 13
Investors Can Find Comfort In Grand Canyon Education's (NASDAQ:LOPE) Earnings Quality
The most recent earnings report from Grand Canyon Education, Inc. ( NASDAQ:LOPE ) was disappointing for shareholders...Narrative Update • Oct 26
Share Buybacks And Steady Earnings Outlook Will Drive Sustained Market Confidence
Analysts have maintained their price target for Grand Canyon Education at $239.00, citing consistent outlooks on key financial metrics as well as steady growth expectations. What's in the News Grand Canyon Education completed a buyback tranche by repurchasing 259,271 shares, representing 0.92% of the company, for $47.38 million.Narrative Update • Oct 12
Expanding Online And Hybrid Education Will Secure Future Market Momentum
Grand Canyon Education's analyst price target was raised from $227.33 to $239.00, as analysts cited updated financial estimates to support the modest increase. What's in the News The Supreme Court has allowed the Trump administration to proceed with mass layoffs at the Education Department, which will impact publicly traded companies including Grand Canyon Education (WSJ).Narrative Update • Sep 28
Expanding Online And Hybrid Education Will Secure Future Market Momentum
The increase in Grand Canyon Education’s consensus price target is primarily driven by a modest rise in the forward P/E multiple, indicating higher expected earnings growth and valuation, resulting in a new fair value estimate of $227.33. What's in the News The Supreme Court has permitted the Trump administration to proceed with mass layoffs at the Department of Education, a move expected to weaken the department and potentially impact publicly traded education service companies, including Grand Canyon Education (WSJ).Narrative Update • Sep 13
Expanding Online And Hybrid Education Will Secure Future Market Momentum
The modest increase in Grand Canyon Education’s consensus price target reflects a slightly higher expected future P/E multiple, signaling improved earnings outlook and investor sentiment, with fair value now at $222.33. What's in the News The Supreme Court has allowed the Trump administration to proceed with mass layoffs at the Education Department, which could weaken the department and impact publicly traded education companies including Grand Canyon Education (LOPE).Analysis Article • Aug 31
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:LOPE) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 19x, you may...Analysis Article • Jul 18
Shareholders Would Enjoy A Repeat Of Grand Canyon Education's (NASDAQ:LOPE) Recent Growth In Returns
There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Amongst other things, we'll want...Analysis Article • Jul 03
Grand Canyon Education (NASDAQ:LOPE) Ticks All The Boxes When It Comes To Earnings Growth
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...Analysis Article • May 21
Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LOPE) P/E Ratio
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 18x, you may...Analysis Article • May 08
Is Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:LOPE) Trading At A 27% Discount?
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Grand Canyon Education fair value estimate is US$266 Current...Analysis Article • Apr 24
What Is Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LOPE) Share Price Doing?
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. ( NASDAQ:LOPE ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw significant share price...Analysis Article • Apr 09
The Trend Of High Returns At Grand Canyon Education (NASDAQ:LOPE) Has Us Very Interested
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Seeking Alpha • Mar 06
Grand Canyon Education: Downgrading To 'Hold' Post Q4 Earnings (Technical Analysis)
Summary We initially turned bullish on Grand Canyon Education, Inc. in December 2023 due to rising enrollment and retention rates. Despite recent gains, weakening technical indicators and muted fiscal 2025 guidance prompt us to downgrade LOPE to a 'Hold' rating. Concerns include a potential 20% retracement, declining margins, and reliance on share buybacks to maintain EPS. We recommend holding LOPE stock until further notice, given changing technicals and adverse top-line revision trends. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 31
An Intrinsic Calculation For Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:LOPE) Suggests It's 33% Undervalued
Key Insights Grand Canyon Education's estimated fair value is US$259 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Grand...Analysis Article • Dec 23
Under The Bonnet, Grand Canyon Education's (NASDAQ:LOPE) Returns Look Impressive
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Seeking Alpha • Dec 13
Grand Canyon Education: Continue To Milk The Rally For All It's Worth (Technical Analysis)
Summary Grand Canyon Education, Inc. has shown strong performance with a 28% rally, consistently beating earnings expectations, and outperforming the S&P500 in recent months. Technical indicators suggest continued bullish momentum, with the MACD in an upward trend and shares well above the 10-month moving average. Despite stretched book value per share, profitability trends remain strong; however, sustained growth in ROE is necessary for continued rallying. Enrollment growth, particularly in the Ground campus, is crucial for maintaining earnings growth and the longevity of LOPE's share price rally. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 09
Subdued Growth No Barrier To Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:LOPE) With Shares Advancing 29%
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. ( NASDAQ:LOPE ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 29% after a shaky...Analysis Article • Oct 23
Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LOPE) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 81% Above Its Share Price
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Grand Canyon Education fair value estimate is US$240 Current...Seeking Alpha • Sep 16
Grand Canyon: Enrollment Growth In Online And Hybrid To Drive Shares Higher
Summary Bullish on Grand Canyon Education, Inc. due to rising enrollment and a shortage of qualified labor in the US. Shares have gained over 5% year to date, maintaining a long-term technical breakout. The 200-day moving average has provided solid support for LOPE, currently being tested. Our December 2023 commentary detailed the technical breakout, which remains intact. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Sep 14
There's Reason For Concern Over Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LOPE) Price
It's not a stretch to say that Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:LOPE ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19x...
New Narrative • Sep 03
Expanding Hybrid Education And Online Programs Fuels Revenue And Innovates Learning Paths
Emphasis on online and hybrid models, with expansions in healthcare programs, is designed to attract more students and diversify enrollment.Analysis Article • Jul 05
Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LOPE) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 57% Above Its Share Price
Key Insights Grand Canyon Education's estimated fair value is US$225 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...Analysis Article • May 30
Investor Optimism Abounds Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:LOPE) But Growth Is Lacking
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 16x, you may...Analysis Article • Apr 20
We Like Grand Canyon Education's (NASDAQ:LOPE) Returns And Here's How They're Trending
To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Firstly, we'll want to...Analysis Article • Mar 10
Are Investors Undervaluing Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:LOPE) By 40%?
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Grand Canyon Education fair value estimate is US$220 Current...Analysis Article • Feb 17
Some Confidence Is Lacking In Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LOPE) P/E
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 16x, you may...Analysis Article • Jan 03
Returns on Capital Paint A Bright Future For Grand Canyon Education (NASDAQ:LOPE)
Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? In a perfect world...Analysis Article • Nov 22
An Intrinsic Calculation For Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:LOPE) Suggests It's 35% Undervalued
Key Insights Grand Canyon Education's estimated fair value is US$209 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Grand...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Grand Canyon Education makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 1,126 | 220 | 280 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 1,106 | 216 | 277 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 1,091 | 211 | 273 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 1,068 | 237 | 267 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 1,048 | 230 | 262 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 1,033 | 226 | 258 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 1,019 | 225 | 255 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 1,002 | 219 | 251 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 985 | 213 | 249 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 961 | 205 | 246 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 941 | 195 | 245 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 928 | 190 | 246 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 917 | 186 | 244 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 911 | 185 | 242 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 904 | 199 | 238 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 902 | 216 | 233 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 904 | 240 | 228 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 897 | 260 | 225 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 883 | 262 | 222 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 875 | 266 | 217 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 859 | 264 | 213 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 844 | 257 | 208 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 819 | 247 | 203 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 814 | 253 | 198 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 803 | 257 | 192 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 779 | 259 | 187 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 743 | 258 | 177 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 705 | 234 | 168 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 767 | 229 | 159 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 846 | 229 | 147 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 939 | 222 | 146 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 1,020 | 227 | 134 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 1,002 | 221 | 135 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 974 | 203 | 136 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 947 | 183 | 138 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 922 | 173 | 147 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 895 | 161 | 143 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 873 | 149 | 127 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 845 | 139 | 138 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 828 | 143 | 132 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 811 | 141 | 129 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 778 | 131 | 126 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 752 | 126 | 124 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 734 | 122 | 120 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: LOPE has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: LOPE's current net profit margins (19.5%) are lower than last year (21.9%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: LOPE's earnings have declined by 2.8% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: LOPE's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: LOPE had negative earnings growth (-4.3%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Consumer Services industry average (11.7%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: LOPE's Return on Equity (31.6%) is considered high.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/18 21:40 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/18 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. is covered by 19 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Steven Pawlak | Baird |
| Jeffrey Meuler | Baird |
| Alexander Paris | Barrington Research Associates, Inc. |