Upstart Holdings, Inc.

NasdaqGS:UPST Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.8b

Upstart Holdings Valuation

Is UPST undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UPST when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

US$44.03
Fair Value
18.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: UPST ($36.07) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($44.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UPST is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UPST?

Key metric: As UPST is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for UPST. This is calculated by dividing UPST's market cap by their current earnings.
What is UPST's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio108.9x
EarningsUS$32.21m
Market CapUS$3.77b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UPST's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UPST vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.3x
QFIN Qfin Holdings
2.9x2.15%US$3.0b
NNI Nelnet
10.4xn/aUS$4.6b
BFH Bread Financial Holdings
5.8x-6.36%US$2.8b
ENVA Enova International
10.2x14.07%US$3.1b
UPST Upstart Holdings
108.9x68.40%US$3.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UPST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (108.9x) compared to the peer average (7.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UPST's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Finance Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
XYF X Financial
1.9xn/aUS$490.47m
AIJT.Y Jianpu Technology
1.3xn/aUS$18.81m
No more companies available in this PE range
UPST 108.9xIndustry Avg. 9.9xNo. of Companies7PE0816243240+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UPST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (108.9x) compared to the US Consumer Finance industry average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UPST's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UPST PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio108.9x
Fair PE Ratio43.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UPST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (108.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UPST forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$36.07
US$55.38
+53.57%
30.14%US$80.00US$20.00n/a13
Nov ’26US$47.52
US$74.69
+57.18%
31.21%US$105.00US$20.00n/a13
Oct ’26US$52.13
US$80.85
+55.09%
25.16%US$105.00US$20.00n/a13
Sep ’26US$73.28
US$80.85
+10.32%
25.16%US$105.00US$20.00n/a13
Aug ’26US$79.22
US$69.43
-12.36%
29.25%US$105.00US$20.00n/a14
Jul ’26US$68.14
US$62.39
-8.43%
37.96%US$105.00US$16.50n/a14
Jun ’26US$47.17
US$57.54
+21.99%
38.40%US$85.00US$16.50n/a12
May ’26US$47.69
US$73.92
+55.01%
46.88%US$110.00US$15.00n/a13
Apr ’26US$46.00
US$79.00
+71.74%
39.92%US$110.00US$15.00n/a14
Mar ’26US$66.67
US$80.29
+20.42%
38.84%US$110.00US$15.00n/a14
Feb ’26US$64.75
US$62.18
-3.96%
49.20%US$100.00US$12.00n/a14
Jan ’26US$61.57
US$63.19
+2.63%
49.88%US$100.00US$12.00n/a13
Dec ’25US$78.79
US$54.54
-30.78%
54.80%US$90.00US$12.00n/a12
Nov ’25US$48.48
US$30.62
-36.85%
47.43%US$56.00US$9.00US$47.5213
Oct ’25US$37.78
US$25.00
-33.83%
47.77%US$48.00US$9.00US$52.1313
Sep ’25US$42.50
US$23.38
-44.98%
43.47%US$37.00US$9.00US$73.2813
Aug ’25US$25.40
US$19.96
-21.40%
38.06%US$31.00US$9.00US$79.2214
Jul ’25US$22.90
US$18.96
-17.19%
36.78%US$30.00US$9.00US$68.1414
Jun ’25US$24.72
US$19.12
-22.67%
36.30%US$30.00US$9.00US$47.1713
May ’25US$22.87
US$20.61
-9.89%
34.39%US$30.00US$9.00US$47.6914
Apr ’25US$26.43
US$20.76
-21.46%
34.38%US$30.00US$9.00US$46.0014
Mar ’25US$26.32
US$20.94
-20.46%
34.43%US$30.00US$9.00US$66.6714
Feb ’25US$32.30
US$21.47
-33.52%
45.66%US$42.00US$6.00US$64.7515
Jan ’25US$40.86
US$19.85
-51.41%
49.72%US$42.00US$6.00US$61.5713
Dec ’24US$32.37
US$19.15
-40.84%
42.26%US$32.00US$6.00US$78.7914
Nov ’24US$24.59
US$23.81
-3.19%
60.21%US$64.00US$6.00US$48.4815
US$55.38
Fair Value
34.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/11/17 03:55
End of Day Share Price 2025/11/17 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is covered by 21 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ramsey El-AssalBarclays
Mihir BhatiaBofA Global Research
Harold GoetschB. Riley Securities, Inc.