XP Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
XP is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 11.5% and 12.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 12% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 24.1% in 3 years.
Key information
11.5%
Earnings growth rate
11.96%
EPS growth rate
| Capital Markets earnings growth | 10.7% |
| Revenue growth rate | 12.3% |
| Future return on equity | 24.08% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 23 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Earnings Update: XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
Nov 20
Earnings Update: XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
May 23Recent updates
XP: Growth Is Improving, But Retail Flows Are Still Missing
Apr 29
XP: Execution On 2026 Guidance And Competition Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have lifted their price targets on XP toward the mid $20s. These changes are framed around updated revenue growth expectations near 12% for 2026 and modest adjustments to projected profit margins and future P/E multiples.XP: Execution On 2026 Revenue Guidance Will Drive Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their price targets for XP higher, with recent moves such as BofA's lift to $26 from $22 reflecting updated views on revenue growth expectations, profitability, and a modestly lower assumed discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent research on XP shows a mix of optimism about long term revenue potential and caution about how much of that potential is already reflected in the share price.
XP: Future Returns Will Rely On 2026 Guidance And Capital Returns
Narrative Update on XP The consensus analyst price target for XP has shifted higher, with some moving to $26 from $22 as analysts factor in management’s reiterated 2026 gross revenue guidance, expectations for about 12% revenue growth in 2026, and stronger profit margin assumptions alongside a slightly lower forward P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research on XP highlights a mix of optimism around long term growth guidance and caution around execution and valuation, which is feeding into the latest price target changes.
XP: Reiterated 2026 Guidance And Buybacks Will Support Further Upside
Analysts have raised their average price target for XP to about $27.10, with the change tied to slightly stronger revenue growth assumptions and updated long term P/E expectations following recent research that incorporates management’s reiterated 2026 gross revenue guidance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the recent price target revisions as a reflection of greater confidence in XP’s ability to meet the company’s reiterated 2026 gross revenue guidance, while still maintaining some valuation discipline.XP: 2026 Earnings Power And Buybacks Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts now see XP's fair value at about $26.86 versus roughly $26.00 previously, reflecting updated views on its discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and forward P/E after recent bullish Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent bullish research on XP has focused on how updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and forward P/E can support a fair value around US$26.86, compared with roughly US$26.00 in prior models.XP: Future Shareholder Returns Will Rely On Buybacks And Cash Dividends
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for XP from US$22.63 to about US$23.89 per share, reflecting updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples informed by recent research that maintains a positive view on the stock. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the recent initiation and refreshed fair value work as support that XP's current share price still leaves room for the updated US$23.89 estimate to be realized over time, assuming the company can deliver on its revenue and margin assumptions.XP: Buybacks And Execution Risks Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for XP from about US$20.06 to around US$21.30 per share, pointing to updated assumptions that combine stronger revenue growth expectations with slightly lower profit margins and a similar future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary While the revised fair value estimate reflects updated assumptions on growth and margins, not every research desk is leaning in the same direction.XP: Future Shareholder Returns Will Rely On Ongoing Buybacks And Dividends
Analysts have trimmed their price target on XP to US$22.63 from US$23.17, citing updated assumptions around fair value, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, which slightly adjust their overall outlook. What's in the News XP Inc.XP: Share Repurchases And Higher Margins Will Drive Stronger Future Returns
Analysts have raised their price target for XP from approximately 16.73 dollars to 20.06 dollars, citing expectations of slightly higher discount rates and improved long term profit margins that more than offset a modest reduction in projected revenue growth. What's in the News XP Inc.XP Will Benefit From 2026 Earnings Power And Capital Returns
We modestly lift our fair value estimate for XP to approximately $26, reflecting analysts’ higher year-end 2026-based price targets in the low $20s, even as they trim revenue growth assumptions and flag near-term macro and activity headwinds. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts have nudged their price targets into the low $20s, aligning with our updated fair value framework and signaling growing confidence that XP can execute through a tougher macro backdrop.XP: Medium-Term Confidence Will Prevail Despite Near-Term Interest Rate Headwinds
XP’s analyst price target saw a modest increase to $23, up from previous levels, as analysts rolled forward valuation periods and maintained mostly stable earnings forecasts despite some pressure on revenue growth expectations and market activity. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reports reflect a balanced perspective from analysts, highlighting both the opportunities and risks currently facing XP Inc.Earnings Update: XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
Nov 20XP: Stable Earnings Outlook Will Support Long-Term Resilience Into 2026
Analysts have raised their price target for XP Inc. from $22.92 to $23.20.Brazil's Evolving Landscape Will Unlock Broad Market Opportunities
XP's analyst price target has been modestly lifted from $22.92 to $23.50, as analysts incorporate revised growth estimates and extend valuation timeframes. This change comes despite mixed expectations for near-term performance.Brazil's Evolving Landscape Will Unlock Broad Market Opportunities
XP's valuation outlook has shifted as its future P/E multiple dropped sharply and revenue growth forecasts softened, yet the analyst price target was essentially unchanged at $23.50. What's in the News Board meeting held to consider and approve unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as of June 30, 2025.Brazil's Evolving Landscape Will Unlock Broad Market Opportunities
Analysts have modestly raised XP's price target to $22.84 as bullish sentiment around improved fundamentals offsets bearish concerns over limited upside and competitive challenges. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts cite concerns over limited upside to justify a downgrade and reduced price target.Earnings Update: XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
May 23Even With A 39% Surge, Cautious Investors Are Not Rewarding XP Inc.'s (NASDAQ:XP) Performance Completely
May 09XP Inc. Q4: Results Are Surprising, But That's Why It's Not Time To Buy (Rating Upgrade)
Mar 05XP: Like A Bank But Conserves Optionality To Equities, It Is An Opportunity
Feb 19XP: Weathering The Storm In Brazil's Financial Turmoil
Jan 25XP Inc. Q3: Modest And Without Triggers For Abrupt Improvement
Nov 27
Enhancing Tech-Enabled Platforms And Services Will Drive Revenue Growth And Deepen Client Relationships
XP's tech-enabled platform and transition to service provision are set to increase revenue and enhance net margins by attracting and retaining clients.XP Q2 Earnings: On Track To Meet Its 2026 Financial Targets
Sep 06XP Inc.: Lots Of Competition And Little Potential For Appreciation
Jun 21XP Inc: The Post-Earnings Sell-Off Is A Buying Opportunity
May 25Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 26,686 | 7,285 | 10,656 | 8,249 | 7 |
| 12/31/2027 | 23,732 | 6,532 | 12,146 | 7,120 | 10 |
| 12/31/2026 | 20,832 | 5,713 | 13,113 | 6,005 | 8 |
| 12/31/2025 | 17,773 | 5,170 | 11,555 | 12,045 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 17,210 | 5,054 | 17,828 | 18,249 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 16,811 | 4,921 | 10,250 | 10,632 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 16,547 | 4,719 | 11,540 | 11,891 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 16,251 | 4,513 | 10,853 | 11,179 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 15,886 | 4,375 | 11,297 | 11,488 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 15,762 | 4,276 | 5,309 | 5,580 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 15,143 | 4,134 | 1,120 | 1,353 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 14,243 | 3,899 | 7,931 | 8,127 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 13,391 | 3,639 | 5,187 | 5,514 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 12,887 | 3,584 | 6,393 | 6,534 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 12,843 | 3,520 | 4,005 | 4,129 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 12,945 | 3,579 | 1,677 | 1,804 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 13,120 | 3,786 | 1,193 | 1,281 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 12,750 | 3,690 | -2,676 | -2,533 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 12,396 | 3,710 | -3,506 | -3,278 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 11,941 | 3,589 | -4,373 | -4,020 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 11,128 | 3,201 | -4,796 | -4,309 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 10,095 | 2,806 | -342 | 119 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 9,002 | 2,413 | 1,622 | 2,011 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 8,099 | 2,076 | 1,219 | 1,511 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 7,380 | 1,864 | -3,223 | -3,026 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 6,622 | 1,581 | -3,418 | -3,230 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 5,841 | 1,268 | -4,062 | -3,879 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 5,043 | 1,080 | -3,975 | -3,814 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 4,246 | 803 | N/A | -522 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 2,886 | 461 | N/A | -457 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 1,846 | 414 | N/A | 262 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 1,252 | 189 | N/A | 5 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 661 | 76 | N/A | 191 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: XP's forecast earnings growth (11.5% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).
Earnings vs Market: XP's earnings (11.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (15.8% per year).
High Growth Earnings: XP's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: XP's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.1% per year).
High Growth Revenue: XP's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: XP's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (24.1%)
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/03 21:08 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/01 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
XP Inc. is covered by 15 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Mario Lucio Pierry | BofA Global Research |
| Marcelo Mizrahi | Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários |
| Eric Ito | Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários |