Main Street Capital Corporation

NYSE:MAIN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.0b

Main Street Capital Valuation

Is MAIN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MAIN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

US$45.59
Fair Value
24.9% overvalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: MAIN ($56.92) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($45.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MAIN is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MAIN?

Key metric: As MAIN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MAIN. This is calculated by dividing MAIN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MAIN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.5x
EarningsUS$536.86m
Market CapUS$5.04b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MAIN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MAIN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.1x
HLNE Hamilton Lane
23.6x21.27%US$6.4b
VCTR Victory Capital Holdings
15.7x41.29%US$4.1b
HTGC Hercules Capital
12.5x9.53%US$3.2b
JHG Janus Henderson Group
12.6x4.22%US$6.5b
MAIN Main Street Capital
9.5x-21.24%US$5.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MAIN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the peer average (16.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MAIN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Capital Markets Industry?

16 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ASA ASA Gold and Precious Metals
2.3xn/aUS$878.51m
MUDS Mudrick Capital Acquisition Corporation II
3.4xn/aUS$401.64m
CRRC.F Cohn Robbins Holdings
4.3xn/aUS$283.01m
SSSS SuRo Capital
4.6x-113.68%US$256.72m
MAIN 9.5xIndustry Avg. 25.1xNo. of Companies73PE020406080100+
16 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MAIN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the US Capital Markets industry average (25.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MAIN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MAIN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.5x
Fair PE Ratio10.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MAIN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MAIN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$56.92
US$61.33
+7.75%
5.30%US$67.00US$57.00n/a6
Oct ’26US$62.84
US$62.00
-1.34%
5.35%US$67.00US$57.00n/a6
Sep ’26US$66.29
US$62.00
-6.47%
5.35%US$67.00US$57.00n/a6
Aug ’26US$63.99
US$56.25
-12.10%
5.09%US$60.00US$53.00n/a4
Jul ’26US$59.28
US$55.75
-5.95%
4.81%US$60.00US$53.00n/a4
Jun ’26US$56.88
US$54.33
-4.48%
2.30%US$56.00US$53.00n/a3
May ’26US$52.63
US$58.00
+10.20%
5.63%US$62.00US$54.00n/a3
Apr ’26US$57.72
US$56.50
-2.11%
7.13%US$62.00US$51.00n/a4
Mar ’26US$60.80
US$52.40
-13.82%
10.42%US$62.00US$45.00n/a5
Feb ’26US$61.96
US$50.40
-18.66%
5.41%US$52.00US$45.00n/a5
Jan ’26US$58.58
US$49.60
-15.33%
5.50%US$52.00US$45.00n/a5
Dec ’25US$55.47
US$49.60
-10.58%
5.50%US$52.00US$45.00n/a5
Nov ’25US$50.67
US$48.80
-3.69%
6.27%US$52.00US$44.00US$56.925
Oct ’25US$50.07
US$48.80
-2.54%
6.27%US$52.00US$44.00US$62.845
Sep ’25US$49.40
US$48.80
-1.21%
6.27%US$52.00US$44.00US$66.295
Aug ’25US$51.16
US$48.80
-4.61%
6.78%US$52.00US$43.00US$63.995
Jul ’25US$50.50
US$48.67
-3.63%
7.18%US$52.00US$43.00US$59.286
Jun ’25US$49.00
US$48.67
-0.68%
7.18%US$52.00US$43.00US$56.886
May ’25US$50.15
US$46.33
-7.61%
6.06%US$52.00US$43.00US$52.636
Apr ’25US$46.92
US$45.20
-3.67%
2.94%US$47.00US$43.00US$57.725
Mar ’25US$45.44
US$45.67
+0.50%
3.50%US$48.00US$43.00US$60.806
Feb ’25US$44.96
US$44.50
-1.02%
5.47%US$48.00US$41.00US$61.966
Jan ’25US$43.23
US$44.17
+2.17%
4.61%US$47.00US$41.00US$58.586
Dec ’24US$41.68
US$44.17
+5.97%
4.61%US$47.00US$41.00US$55.476
Nov ’24US$39.30
US$44.00
+11.96%
4.91%US$47.00US$41.00US$50.676
US$61.33
Fair Value
7.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/10/31 16:26
End of Day Share Price 2025/10/31 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Main Street Capital Corporation is covered by 12 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Bryce RoweBaird
Bryce RoweB. Riley Securities, Inc.
Sean-Paul AdamsB. Riley Securities, Inc.