ConocoPhillips Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
ConocoPhillips is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.3% and 3.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 10.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 15.3% in 3 years.
Key information
6.3%
Earnings growth rate
10.13%
EPS growth rate
| Oil and Gas earnings growth | 6.3% |
| Revenue growth rate | 3.3% |
| Future return on equity | 15.28% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 01 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Middle East Risks And Portfolio Moves
Analysts have raised ConocoPhillips’ fair value estimate from $131.52 to $138.00. This change reflects updated expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and a modestly lower assumed future P/E multiple, following a series of higher Street price targets tied to revised oil price assumptions and geopolitical risk.
Future LNG And Shale Execution Risks Will Pressure Cash Generation
Catalysts About ConocoPhillips ConocoPhillips is a global exploration and production company focused on oil, natural gas and LNG projects across the Lower 48 U.S. states, Alaska and international assets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
ConocoPhillips (COP): The Global Energy Sovereign and the "Cash Harvesting" Pivot
ConocoPhillips (COP) , the world’s largest independent oil and gas producer, enters Tuesday, April 21, 2026 , as a company masterfully navigating a high-volatility geopolitical landscape. Trading at $119.07 USD —marking a strong 2.26% surge in today's session—the stock is currently testing its 52-week high of $135.87.ConocoPhillips: Iran War To Be A Major Profit Catalyst
Apr 13COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Geopolitical Oil Risk And Cash Returns
Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for ConocoPhillips higher to $131.52 from $128.29 as widespread price target increases reflect updated oil price assumptions, slightly higher future P/E expectations around 20.6x, and revised margin outlooks across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on ConocoPhillips has been active, with a series of price target revisions and rating changes driven largely by updated oil and gas price decks, geopolitical risk, and evolving expectations for cash generation and capital returns.
Long Life Projects And LNG Portfolio Will Drive Powerful Future Cash Flow Transformation
Catalysts About ConocoPhillips ConocoPhillips is a global exploration and production company focused on oil and natural gas, with a large Lower 48 shale position, LNG projects and long life assets in Alaska and internationally. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Higher Oil Risk And Dividend Capacity
Analysts have lifted their ConocoPhillips fair value estimate from $118.15 to $128.29, citing higher medium term oil price assumptions that are expected to contribute to revenue growth, a slightly richer future P/E multiple, and adjusted margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ConocoPhillips points to a split view, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets on the back of higher medium term oil price assumptions and a few more cautious voices flagging valuation risk and potential commodity softness.COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Dividend Capacity And Geopolitical Oil Risk
Analysts have nudged our fair value estimate for ConocoPhillips up from $114.74 to $118.15, reflecting higher Street price targets tied to increased long term oil price assumptions, modest valuation multiple expansion, and expectations for stronger free cash flow as recent project spending rolls off. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ConocoPhillips reflects a wide range of opinions, with some focusing on upside from higher long term oil price assumptions and free cash flow, and others flagging valuation and commodity risk.COP: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Dividend Support And Venezuela Uncertainty
Analysts have raised their ConocoPhillips price targets by about $10. This reflects updated assumptions for slightly higher revenue growth, a modestly lower future P/E, and a small increase in estimated fair value to $114.74.COP: Future Cash Flows Will Strengthen As Dividend Capacity Expands
Narrative Update The updated analyst price target for ConocoPhillips edges higher to about US$113. Analysts point to slightly stronger margin assumptions, a modestly higher future P/E multiple, and refreshed views on dividend growth and valuation across recent research updates.COP: Free Cash Flow Will Improve As Peak Capex Eases And Volumes Advance
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on ConocoPhillips, with our fair value estimate edging from US$112.37 to about US$111.48 as they factor in a softer crude backdrop, updated 2025 and 2026 guidance, and mixed expectations around cash flow and organic growth. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around ConocoPhillips reflects a mix of optimism on execution and balance sheet quality, alongside caution around crude pricing and near term cash flow.COP: Free Cash Flow Will Strengthen As Peak Capex Fades And Production Increases
The analyst price target for ConocoPhillips edges slightly lower by approximately $0.02 to reflect modestly softer medium term growth and margin assumptions, as analysts recalibrate models following Q3 updates, refreshed 2025 and preliminary 2026 guidance, and a sector-wide bias toward gas over oil. Analyst Commentary Street research indicates that the modestly lower consolidated price target reflects mixed revisions at the single stock level, with most firms maintaining positive fundamental views while trimming outer year assumptions to reflect softer gas and NGL realizations and more conservative commodity decks.COP: Free Cash Flow Will Strengthen As Production Outperformance Follows Peak Capex
Our ConocoPhillips analyst price target edges slightly lower, reflecting a modest recalibration in fair value to $112.39 as analysts factor in updated Q3 results, 2025 guidance, and preliminary 2026 outlook. These elements temper cash flow expectations while still acknowledging solid production growth and capital returns.COP: Free Cash Flow Will Outperform as Workforce Reduction Improves Efficiency
ConocoPhillips' analyst price target saw a modest decrease of $0.63, as analysts cited updated company outlooks for 2025 and 2026 as well as evolving sector dynamics in their revised forecasts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on ConocoPhillips presents a blend of optimism for the company's prospects alongside some caution about sector headwinds and near-term execution challenges.Earnings Troubles May Signal Larger Issues for ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Shareholders
Nov 13
COP: Free Cash Flow Strength Will Drive Outperformance Despite Sector Uncertainty
The consensus analyst price target for ConocoPhillips has edged slightly lower, decreasing by $0.24 to approximately $113.54. Analysts are adjusting their models following recent Q3 results and expectations for softer revenue growth, even with improved profit margins.ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $0.84
Nov 10Production Expansion And Capital Returns Will Drive Longer-Term Opportunity Despite Workforce Cuts
ConocoPhillips’ analyst price target has been revised downward by analysts, with the consensus fair value estimate dropping from $115.46 to $113.78 per share. This reflects tempered cash flow outlooks and shifting sector dynamics, despite resilient operational performance.Strong Global Energy Demand And LNG Projects Will Drive Future Momentum
Analysts have adjusted their price targets for ConocoPhillips slightly downward, with the updated consensus reflecting a modest decrease of around $1 to $115. This adjustment comes as analysts expect steady operational performance in the upcoming quarter but acknowledge headwinds from softer gas and NGL markets as well as mixed outlooks on cash flow and production growth.Insufficient Growth At ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Hampers Share Price
Jul 18
An Intrinsic Calculation For ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Suggests It's 34% Undervalued
Jun 01ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.78
May 12ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly
May 06Conoco Phillips: Undervalued Laggard Poised To Outperform
Mar 30ConocoPhillips: Starting 2025 With Marathon
Feb 23ConocoPhillips: Trump Will Help, But Bound To Oil Volatility
Jan 22ConocoPhillips' Merger With Marathon Oil Offers Synergies (Rating Upgrade)
Dec 21ConocoPhillips: Navigating Market Pressures
Nov 18ConocoPhillips: Lackluster Oil And Gas Action, Low-Teens P/E Warranted
Oct 23Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 66,687 | 9,500 | 11,708 | 22,805 | 5 |
| 12/31/2027 | 66,546 | 10,151 | 11,081 | 22,440 | 8 |
| 12/31/2026 | 67,740 | 10,971 | 9,712 | 24,386 | 8 |
| 3/31/2026 | 59,378 | 7,295 | 5,853 | 17,976 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 60,279 | 7,961 | 7,243 | 19,796 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 61,280 | 8,833 | 7,088 | 19,935 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 59,386 | 9,166 | 6,923 | 19,820 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 59,090 | 9,525 | 8,674 | 21,254 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 56,450 | 9,218 | 8,006 | 20,124 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 56,924 | 9,916 | 9,246 | 20,930 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 58,080 | 10,652 | 9,299 | 20,612 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 56,820 | 10,553 | 8,280 | 19,547 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 57,861 | 10,922 | 8,717 | 19,965 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 61,839 | 11,160 | 10,396 | 21,294 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 68,775 | 12,882 | 13,739 | 24,589 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 77,697 | 15,787 | 18,754 | 28,649 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 80,575 | 18,620 | 18,155 | 28,314 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 76,899 | 17,992 | 18,407 | 27,590 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 66,890 | 15,860 | 15,659 | 23,647 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 54,900 | 12,822 | 12,716 | 19,984 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 46,660 | 8,060 | 11,672 | 16,996 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 36,785 | 4,680 | 7,975 | 12,800 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 29,641 | 1,851 | 4,216 | 8,871 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 22,772 | 20 | 494 | 4,777 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 19,216 | -2,707 | 87 | 4,802 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 21,475 | -1,209 | 860 | 6,112 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 25,100 | 2,297 | 1,786 | 7,581 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 30,400 | 3,617 | 3,667 | 10,315 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 33,346 | 7,189 | N/A | 11,104 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 35,483 | 8,337 | N/A | 11,905 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 37,180 | 7,142 | N/A | 12,978 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 37,823 | 7,202 | N/A | 13,429 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 37,491 | 6,257 | N/A | 12,934 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 35,835 | 5,968 | N/A | 11,632 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 32,976 | 4,527 | N/A | 9,277 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 31,166 | -553 | N/A | 7,686 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 29,878 | -855 | N/A | 7,077 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 28,551 | -2,469 | N/A | 6,039 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 28,022 | -3,929 | N/A | 6,264 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 26,491 | -1,560 | N/A | 5,772 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 23,745 | -3,615 | N/A | 4,403 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 23,017 | -7,030 | N/A | 4,556 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 24,147 | -7,061 | N/A | 5,210 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 27,270 | -6,169 | N/A | 5,925 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 30,219 | -4,428 | N/A | 7,572 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 35,646 | -1,017 | N/A | 8,787 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 41,074 | 1,680 | N/A | 10,724 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: COP's forecast earnings growth (6.3% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).
Earnings vs Market: COP's earnings (6.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (15.8% per year).
High Growth Earnings: COP's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: COP's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.1% per year).
High Growth Revenue: COP's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: COP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.3%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/01 16:58 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/01 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
ConocoPhillips is covered by 49 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| William Selesky | Argus Research Company |
| Joseph Allman | Baird |
| Yim Cheng | Barclays |