Matador Resources Company

NYSE:MTDR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$7.1b

Matador Resources Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Matador Resources is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 11.7% and 5.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 10.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 11.3% in 3 years.

Key information

11.7%

Earnings growth rate

10.79%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth3.8%
Revenue growth rate5.8%
Future return on equity11.30%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated14 Sep 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Aug 08

Earnings Beat: Matador Resources Company Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Matador Resources Company ( NYSE:MTDR ) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead...

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Sep 03

MTDR: Acreage Expansion And Active M&A Will Shape Balanced 2026 Outlook

Analysts have modestly lifted the fair value estimate for Matador Resources to $56 from $54, reflecting updated assumptions on capital intensity, revenue growth and profit margins, along with recent Street research that highlights active M&A activity, revised price targets between $56 and $93, and ongoing updates to commodity and macro views. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Matador Resources shows a mix of optimism on long term assets and caution on nearer term execution risks, capital spending and commodity exposure.
Narrative Update • Aug 14

MTDR: Delaware Basin Buildout And Higher Strip Prices Will Support Cash Generation

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Matador Resources by around $4 to $68, citing slightly higher perceived risk, modestly lower revenue growth and profit margins, and a marginally lower future P/E, even as recent research shows a mix of both upward and downward target revisions across the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Matador Resources shows a split between bullish and bearish analysts, with target prices ranging from the low US$50s to the low US$90s.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 13

Matador Resources: Midstream Connectivity Makes The Acreage More Valuable

Summary Matador Resources is building an integrated Delaware Basin platform, combining upstream assets with midstream infrastructure for synergistic value creation. Q2 '26 results showed record oil production, strong free cash flow, and operating leverage, despite negative realized gas prices and temporary shut-ins. Recent acquisitions, including Paloma and Ridge Runner, expand MTDR's high net revenue interest inventory and midstream capacity, supporting over 15 years of drilling inventory. The company trades at a significant valuation discount to peers, but leverage and integration execution risks remain key factors to monitor as the platform evolves. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Aug 08

Earnings Beat: Matador Resources Company Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Matador Resources Company ( NYSE:MTDR ) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead...
Narrative Update • Jul 31

MTDR: Delaware Basin Acreage Expansion Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Matador Resources from $60.00 to $54.00 as they adjust for updated growth, margin and P/E assumptions, while also weighing mixed Street price target revisions that balance concerns about past acquisition costs with expectations for value from undeveloped acreage and the current oil backdrop. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Matador Resources shows a clear split between bullish and bearish views.
Narrative Update • Jul 17

MTDR: Delaware Basin Expansion And Midstream Deal Will Support Future Upside

The analyst fair value estimate for Matador Resources has been trimmed by $2 to $60 as analysts adjust price targets lower on the back of softer commodity strip assumptions, while still highlighting ongoing operational execution and refined expectations for revenue growth, margins, and future P/E levels. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Matador Resources reflects a mix of confidence in the company’s execution and caution around the commodity backdrop and valuation, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets even while keeping generally constructive ratings.
Narrative Update • Jul 01

MTDR: Higher 2026 Oil Decks And Midstream Expansion Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed the consolidated price target for Matador Resources by $5.33 to $88.15, reflecting updated oil price assumptions and mixed moves in recent firm targets that incorporate both lower commodity scenarios as well as more constructive views on margins and earnings power. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Matador Resources shows a split in views, with some analysts trimming targets on the back of shifting oil assumptions while others highlight potential upside as energy markets reset.
Narrative Update • Jun 17

MTDR: Commodity Tailwinds And New Gas Agreements Will Support Future Upside

Analysts lifted the fair value estimate for Matador Resources stock to $62 from $52, reflecting updated price targets across the Street as they factor in revised oil price assumptions, a shift to projected revenue growth of 4.55% from a prior revenue decline of 1.94%, a lower expected profit margin of 19.76% versus 27.16%, and a higher forward P/E of 11.56 compared with 8.24. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Matador Resources reflects a mix of optimism on the oil backdrop and some emerging caution on valuation and execution risks.
Narrative Update • Jun 01

MTDR: Higher Oil Strip And Delaware Acreage Are Expected To Support Cash Generation

Analysts have nudged their average price target for Matador Resources higher by about $1 to roughly $73, reflecting updated oil price assumptions, revised forecasts for refining margins, and adjusted earnings expectations across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Matador Resources shows a split between analysts who are leaning more optimistic on the stock and those who are becoming more cautious as valuation and oil assumptions reset.
Narrative Update • May 10

MTDR: Higher 2026 Oil Decks Are Expected To Drive Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their Matador Resources fair value estimate down by about $1 to $93.48, citing updated views on revenue growth, profitability, discount rates, and forward P/E levels following a series of higher Street price targets in recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Matador Resources shows a cluster of higher price targets and generally constructive views, even as some analysts fine tune their fair value work.
Narrative Update • Apr 23

MTDR: Stronger Oil Strip Is Expected To Support Future Cash Generation

Analysts have lifted the Matador Resources fair value estimate from $57.53 to $72.05 as a series of recent price target increases, supported by updated oil price assumptions, revised exploration and production models, and views on capital efficiency, feed into expectations for slightly higher revenue growth, modestly stronger profit margins, a lower discount rate, and an updated future P/E of 10.77x. Analyst Commentary Street research on Matador Resources over the past few months has leaned constructive on valuation and execution, with a handful of more cautious voices highlighting capital allocation and risk factors.
Narrative Update • Apr 08

MTDR: Higher 2026 Oil Decks Will Shape Future Upside Potential

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Matador Resources from $74.78 to $94.71, reflecting updated assumptions for a 6.98% discount rate, 7.70% revenue growth, a 24.75% profit margin, and a forward P/E of about 12.41, which are generally consistent with the series of recent price target hikes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Matador Resources shows a mix of optimism and caution, with a clear cluster of bullish analysts lifting price targets as they refresh commodity price decks and company specific models.
Narrative Update • Mar 25

MTDR: Heavy Hedging And Front Loaded Capex Will Restrain Future Equity Upside

Analysts lifted the fair value estimate for Matador Resources by $5 to $52, citing updated oil price decks, modest valuation multiple changes, and ongoing updates to exploration and production models as key drivers behind the higher targets across several recent research notes. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Matador Resources has leaned constructive on fair value, with several firms updating price targets to reflect new commodity price decks, refreshed exploration and production models, and company specific meetings.
Narrative Update • Mar 11

MTDR: Lower Long Dated Oil Assumptions Will Pressure Future Equity Upside

Matador Resources' fair value estimate has been trimmed by $1 to $47, even as analysts lift price targets into the $52 to $62 range based on updated oil price assumptions, higher expected profit margins and lower forward P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Matador Resources has been mixed, with a cluster of higher price targets sitting above the current fair value estimate alongside a set of more guarded adjustments that highlight where things could go wrong.
Narrative Update • Feb 24

MTDR: Stronger Oil Strip Is Expected To Support Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Matador Resources slightly higher to about $57.53, with the latest price target moves, including a recent lift to $59, tied largely to updated views on the oil strip and commodity price outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Matador Resources reflects a mix of optimism around the commodity backdrop and some recalibration of expectations tied to longer dated oil assumptions and stock rating changes.
Narrative Update • Feb 10

MTDR: Recalibrated Oil Decks Will Shape Future Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Matador Resources to approximately $74.78 from about $82.48, reflecting updated assumptions for slower revenue growth, slightly lower profit margins, a lower discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple in light of recent price target cuts and a downgrade in Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Matador Resources has leaned cautious overall, with several firms trimming price targets and, in at least one case, issuing a downgrade.
Narrative Update • Jan 27

MTDR: Revised Commodity Decks Will Still Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their average price target for Matador Resources by about $1 to roughly $57, as they factor in updated commodity price decks and company guidance, while still acknowledging modestly higher long term revenue growth and profit margin assumptions alongside a slightly lower future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Matador Resources shows a mix of optimism around the company’s execution and growth outlook, alongside some caution tied to updated commodity price assumptions and guidance.
Narrative Update • Jan 12

MTDR: Higher 2025 Production And Increased Payouts Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their average price target for Matador Resources by a few dollars to around the mid US$50s. This reflects updated 2025 guidance, early 2026 commentary and a relative preference for gas focused names over oil producers.
Narrative Update • Dec 26

MTDR: Rising Production And Capital Returns Will Drive Future Upside Momentum

Analysts have nudged their consolidated price target for Matador Resources marginally higher to approximately $58.58 from about $58.16. This reflects slightly improved valuation assumptions even as updated 2025 and preliminary 2026 outlooks introduce modestly higher discount rates and more conservative growth expectations.
Narrative Update • Dec 12

MTDR: Rising Production And Dividend Growth Will Drive Future Upside Momentum

Analysts have slightly trimmed their average price target for Matador Resources by about $1, reflecting modestly softer long term growth and valuation assumptions, even as expectations for margins and free cash flow remain constructive. Analyst Commentary Street research on Matador Resources reflects a mix of constructive views on execution and cash generation, alongside some recalibration of valuation as updated 2025 guidance and early 2026 outlooks are incorporated.
Narrative Update • Nov 27

MTDR: Rising Production And Dividend Increase Will Support Upside Momentum

Matador Resources’ analyst price target has been lowered modestly, declining from $59.44 to $58.72. This adjustment reflects analysts factoring in updated company guidance and evolving sector preferences in North American energy markets.
Narrative Update • Nov 12

MTDR: Record Quarterly Production And Dividend Hike Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Matador Resources, trimming it from $59.72 to $59.44 per share. The adjustment reflects ongoing commodity headwinds while maintaining optimism around the company’s stable growth strategy and free cash flow priorities.
Narrative Update • Oct 29

Record Production And Strong Free Cash Flow Will Drive Margins Into 2026

Analysts have modestly reduced their average price target for Matador Resources from approximately $63.56 to $59.72 per share, citing softer expected revenue growth and recent commodity headwinds as key factors influencing the outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Matador Resources reflects a mix of optimism surrounding the company’s operational strengths and persistent caution over commodity market challenges.
Narrative Update • Oct 14

Delaware Basin Midstream Expansion Will Strengthen Margins Despite Risks

Matador Resources' average analyst price target has edged downward by about $1 to $63.56, as analysts reassess the impact of commodity headwinds and evolving free cash flow strategies on the company's growth prospects. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research offers a nuanced view of Matador Resources' outlook, with analysts weighing both the company's strategic strengths and the headwinds impacting future performance.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 24

Matador Resources: Share Repurchases Should Provide A Positive Benefit

Summary Matador Resources announced a $400 million share repurchase program. It trimmed capex in response to weak commodity prices. Matador can generate around $6 per share in free cash flow at the current 2025 strip, much of which can go towards share repurchases. I estimate its value at $68 per share at long-term (after 2026) $70 WTI oil, so share repurchases at $40 per share can provide a significant benefit. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 21

Matador Resources: 2025 Free Cash Flow May Approach $1.1 Billion

Summary Matador is projected to generate $1.083 billion in free cash flow at the current strip. Matador increased its quarterly dividend to $0.3125 per share, a 25% increase from its prior dividend. It appears to have potential room for further dividend increases in 2025. Matador's Q4 2024 results and 2025 guidance were largely in-line with my prior expectations. It has made progress in continuing to reduce D&C costs. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:MTDR - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20284,6421,1021,1462,9345
12/31/20274,5341,1031,1752,9175
12/31/20264,0858099382,6325
6/30/20263,840724-5692,604N/A
3/31/20263,592483592,168N/A
12/31/20253,6577592422,425N/A
9/30/20253,9377814142,526N/A
6/30/20253,8848534412,414N/A
3/31/20253,7549325502,506N/A
12/31/20243,4798852802,247N/A
9/30/20243,1009253452,290N/A
6/30/20243,0179411962,141N/A
3/31/20242,8258772471,997N/A
12/31/20232,8188463181,868N/A
9/30/20232,5038453651,696N/A
6/30/20232,5829196451,792N/A
3/31/20232,8831,1708251,989N/A
12/31/20223,1971,2148951,979N/A
9/30/20222,8371,1757141,867N/A
6/30/20222,5271,0415521,601N/A
3/31/20222,0347313251,213N/A
12/31/20211,8625853201,053N/A
9/30/20211,451281374876N/A
6/30/20211,173-199123695N/A
3/31/2021900-658-104538N/A
12/31/2020851-593-303478N/A
9/30/2020805-480-412519N/A
6/30/2020861-160-402568N/A
3/31/2020957230N/A602N/A
12/31/20191,02688N/A552N/A
9/30/2019866200N/A542N/A
6/30/2019825174N/A549N/A
3/31/2019803197N/A532N/A
12/31/2018830274N/A609N/A
9/30/2018778176N/A496N/A
6/30/2018685173N/A432N/A
3/31/2018582142N/A374N/A
12/31/2017539126N/A299N/A
9/30/2017439192N/A260N/A
6/30/2017389189N/A206N/A
3/31/201734754N/A177N/A
12/31/2016280-97N/A134N/A
9/30/2016242-432N/A119N/A
6/30/2016232-686N/A145N/A
3/31/2016249-737N/A134N/A
12/31/2015267-680N/A209N/A
9/30/2015306-403N/A257N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MTDR's forecast earnings growth (11.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.7%).

Earnings vs Market: MTDR's earnings (11.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MTDR's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MTDR's revenue (5.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MTDR's revenue (5.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MTDR's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/17 21:55
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/17 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Matador Resources Company is covered by 42 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jeffrey RobertsonBarclays
Phillip JungwirthBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Randy OllenbergerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research