Murphy Oil Corporation

NYSE:MUR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.5b

Murphy Oil Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Murphy Oil is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 17% and 2.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 17% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 8% in 3 years.

Key information

17.0%

Earnings growth rate

16.99%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth3.7%
Revenue growth rate2.9%
Future return on equity8.04%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated11 Sep 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Aug 09

Murphy Oil Corporation Just Beat Revenue By 5.1%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a sad week for Murphy Oil Corporation ( NYSE:MUR ), who've watched their investment drop 16% to US$33.37 in...

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Sep 13

Murphy Oil: FCF Focus Makes A Difference Through Better Offshore Results

Summary Murphy Oil management believes the stock is undervalued, citing past earnings volatility from frequent exploratory dry holes. Exploration outside Malaysia led to repeated write-offs, prompting a strategic overhaul of the exploration process and department. Management emphasizes balancing exploration, risk, and reward. MUR is communicating clear steps to investors for risk reduction offshore. Improved operational discipline in high-risk offshore exploration should lead to less write-offs, which right away increases earnings. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Sep 10

MUR: Bubale Discovery And 2027 Free Cash Flow Outlook Will Drive Upside

Analysts have trimmed their average price target for Murphy Oil by $9.97 to $50.04, citing updated views on long term growth, capital needs and earnings power, as reflected in revised revenue growth, profit margin and P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Murphy Oil points to a mixed but informative backdrop, with several firms refining their views on valuation, capital plans and exploration outcomes.
Narrative Update • Aug 26

MUR: Vietnam And Côte d’Ivoire Projects Will Shape Cash Flow Balance

Murphy Oil's updated analyst price target framework now points to fair value of $32.00. This reflects analyst assumptions for a slightly higher discount rate, more moderate revenue growth, a higher profit margin and a lower future P/E, alongside mixed Street research that includes several recent target trims and rating downgrades balanced against selective target increases.
Narrative Update • Aug 12

MUR: Future Returns Will Hinge On Unhedged Oil And Côte D’Ivoire Discovery

Analysts have trimmed the blended price target for Murphy Oil from about $43.50 to roughly $42.14. This reflects a series of target cuts into a $35 to $41 range and updated views on exploration risks, capital spending, and commodity price assumptions, partially offset by at least one more constructive upgrade following the recent share pullback.
Analysis Article • Aug 09

Murphy Oil Corporation Just Beat Revenue By 5.1%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a sad week for Murphy Oil Corporation ( NYSE:MUR ), who've watched their investment drop 16% to US$33.37 in...
Narrative Update • Jul 15

MUR: Future Cash Returns Will Rely On Oil Prices And Côte D’Ivoire Exploration

Analysts have adjusted the Murphy Oil fair value estimate higher from $41.93 to $43.50, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and sector pricing assumptions that sit between recent upward and downward revisions to Street price targets. Analyst Commentary Street research on Murphy Oil is mixed, with some firms lifting price targets and others turning more cautious as they reset expectations around oil prices, refining margins, and recent share price moves.
Narrative Update • Jul 01

MUR: Vietnam And Côte d'Ivoire Prospects Will Likely Balance Oil Price Volatility

The analyst price target for Murphy Oil has been revised from $22.29 to $35.00, reflecting updated views on oil price assumptions, unhedged oil exposure, Vietnam project catalysts, and a range of recent target changes from firms reacting to both macro oil trends and stock pullbacks. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Murphy Oil shows a wide range of opinions, with some analysts highlighting upside tied to oil exposure and Vietnam projects, while others flag risks related to commodity sensitivity and valuation.
Narrative Update • Jun 17

MUR: Unhedged 2026 Oil Exposure And Vietnam Projects Will Drive Future Upside

The analyst price target for Murphy Oil is updated slightly higher to $48. Analysts point to the stock's recent pullback, unhedged oil exposure into 2026, and potential Vietnam project catalysts as key supports for their revised view.
Narrative Update • Jun 03

MUR: Higher Long Term Oil Prices Will Support Stronger Future Cash Returns

Murphy Oil's analyst price targets have moved higher, with the fair value estimate rising from $55.62 to $60.18 as analysts factor in higher long-term oil price assumptions, tighter supply conditions, and adjusted P/E expectations across the sector. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Murphy Oil points to a more constructive tone, with a series of price target increases and rating upgrades tied mainly to higher assumed long term oil prices, tighter supply expectations, and updated valuation frameworks across exploration and production stocks.
Analysis Article • May 15

Murphy Oil's (NYSE:MUR) Problems Go Beyond Weak Profit

The market wasn't impressed with the soft earnings from Murphy Oil Corporation ( NYSE:MUR ) recently. Our analysis has...
Narrative Update • May 01

MUR: Future Cash Returns Will Rely On Oil Prices And Exploration Outcomes

The analyst price target for Murphy Oil has increased from $32.40 to $41.93 as analysts factor in updated oil price assumptions, a revised P/E outlook of about 14.5x, and modestly higher profit margin expectations, while keeping discount rate assumptions broadly unchanged. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Murphy Oil centers on revised oil price decks, valuation multiples and the impact of geopolitical risk on long term cash generation.
Narrative Update • Apr 17

MUR: Higher Oil Price Decks Will Support Stronger Future Cash Returns

Murphy Oil's analyst price target has been revised slightly higher by a few dollars. Analysts point to updated oil price assumptions, a modestly lower future P/E, and small tweaks to revenue growth and profit margin expectations as key drivers behind the change.
Narrative Update • Apr 02

MUR: Higher Long Term Oil Price Decks Will Drive Future Upside

The analyst price target for Murphy Oil has been revised from $37 to about $56, as analysts factor in higher long term oil price assumptions, modestly softer margin and growth inputs, and a higher future P/E multiple supported by a wave of recent target increases and ratings upgrades across major firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Murphy Oil has turned more constructive, with several firms lifting price targets and upgrading ratings as they reset long term oil price assumptions and valuation frameworks.
Narrative Update • Mar 18

MUR: Future Cash Returns Will Be Limited By Exploration And Cash Flow Risks

Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Murphy Oil higher to $32.40, reflecting updated oil price assumptions, a lower discount rate, and revised expectations for revenue growth, margins, and future P/E multiples following a series of recent price target increases across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research shows a clear split between bullish and cautious views on Murphy Oil, with most of the debate centered on how higher oil price assumptions, geopolitical risk, and execution on exploration projects should feed into valuation, cash flow potential, and appropriate P/E multiples.
Narrative Update • Mar 05

MUR: Exploration Outcomes In Cote D'Ivoire And Vietnam Will Shape Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price expectations for Murphy Oil higher, with the updated fair value moving to $37.00 as they weigh mixed target revisions across the Street, along with exploration updates in Cote d'Ivoire and Vietnam. Analyst Commentary Street research on Murphy Oil has been mixed, with several firms adjusting price targets in both directions and maintaining largely neutral ratings.
Narrative Update • Mar 03

MUR: Future Cash Returns Will Be Constrained By Weaker Free Cash Flow

Analysts have lowered their average price target on Murphy Oil by a few dollars to around $31. This reflects a mix of recent revisions, balancing reduced targets from several firms with a smaller number of increases tied to views on project execution, free cash flow strength, and capital return capacity.
Narrative Update • Feb 17

MUR: Future Cash Flow And Vietnam Projects Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward

Analysts have adjusted our Murphy Oil fair value estimate to $30.73 from $28.93. This reflects updated views on growth, profitability and valuation after a mix of recent target cuts and raises across the Street.
Narrative Update • Feb 03

MUR: Vietnam Appraisal Optimism Will Likely Outrun Weaker Free Cash Flow Profile

Analysts have nudged their average price targets on Murphy Oil slightly higher to about $22.29, reflecting a blend of recent target increases tied to Vietnam appraisal progress and cash flow estimates, alongside several modest target cuts that factor in execution risks and sensitivity to weaker oil prices. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary on Murphy Oil highlights a split view, with some firms lifting price targets around the Hai Su Vang appraisal progress in Vietnam and stronger cash flow estimates, while others are trimming targets to reflect execution and commodity price risk.
Narrative Update • Jan 20

MUR: Vietnam Appraisal Optimism Will Likely Outrun Free Cash Flow Strength

Analysts have nudged their price targets on Murphy Oil higher by up to US$3, citing stronger cash flow estimates, production guidance that came in above prior expectations, and growing optimism around the Hai Su Vang appraisal and potential Vietnam update. Analyst Commentary Recent research has been mixed, with several firms lifting their price targets while still flagging execution risks, cash flow sensitivity and valuation constraints versus peers.
Analysis Article • Jan 06

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR)

To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Firstly, we'd want to...
Narrative Update • Jan 05

MUR: Future Cash Flow Will Likely Lag Despite Stronger Production Guidance

Analysts have nudged their targets on Murphy Oil higher overall, with price objectives now ranging from about $25 to $34. This reflects updated views on cash flow, production guidance, and operating costs.
Narrative Update • Dec 14

MUR: Future Cash Flow May Disappoint Despite Higher Production Guidance

Analysts have modestly trimmed their fair value estimate for Murphy Oil by $1 to $22 per share, balancing cautious assumptions on long term revenue growth and margins against improving cash flow forecasts and higher production outlooks. These developments have led several firms to raise their price targets into the mid to high $20s and low $30s.
Narrative Update • Nov 28

MUR: Future Cash Flow Stability And Production Execution Will Balance Industry Uncertainties

Murphy Oil's analyst price target was recently increased by $0.60. Analysts attribute this change to improved production guidance and rising cash flow expectations.
Narrative Update • Nov 14

MUR: Future Cash Flow Strength And Execution Will Offset Margin Pressures Ahead

Murphy Oil’s analyst price target has increased from $27.53 to $28.33 per share, as analysts cite stronger production forecasts, higher cash flow estimates, and improving industry outlooks as the primary drivers for the upward revision. Analyst Commentary Street research on Murphy Oil following recent earnings and operational updates has highlighted areas of both optimism and caution among analysts.
Seeking Alpha • Jan 31

Murphy Oil: The Chances Of Finding An Elephant Are Still Realistic

Summary The company holds game-changing prospects and maintains a strong balance sheet under new CEO leadership. MUR focuses on steady growth, though offshore projects cause earnings to be 'bumpy' due to significant project impacts and routine maintenance downtimes. Net debt is at its lowest levels in a long time. Murphy Oil keeps dividends low to be able to redirect funds to large projects. This year's earnings were lower than last year's earnings. But the potential to find an elephant still exists. This is a conservative way to go about it. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 02

Murphy Oil Has Strong Return Potential

Summary Murphy Oil Corporation's diversified portfolio spans the Americas, with significant assets in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and exploration in Vietnam, aiming for mid single-digit production growth. The company is committed to reducing long-term debt to $1 billion by mid-2025, enhancing financial stability and positioning for downturns. Murphy's 3.0 capital allocation strategy focuses on shareholder returns, with 50% of FCF allocated to buybacks and dividends, achieving double-digit returns. The primary risk is oil price volatility, which could impact cash flow and MUR shareholder returns, despite the company's strong asset base and strategic investments. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:MUR - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20283,291616N/A2,1574
12/31/20273,1494893871,8597
12/31/20263,1875183351,8947
6/30/20262,9932953061,566N/A
3/31/20262,749841781,268N/A
12/31/20252,6901041981,248N/A
9/30/20252,7461434051,432N/A
6/30/20252,7792854511,521N/A
3/31/20252,8963936021,631N/A
12/31/20243,0194108211,729N/A
9/30/20243,1914769291,838N/A
6/30/20243,3925929421,866N/A
3/31/20243,4045638621,868N/A
12/31/20233,4496636471,749N/A
9/30/20233,5937465971,707N/A
6/30/20233,8051,0197471,956N/A
3/31/20234,1891,2718932,107N/A
12/31/20224,2209671,0522,166N/A
9/30/20223,4709379601,995N/A
6/30/20222,9925178711,695N/A
3/31/20222,5541028481,523N/A
12/31/20212,801-727341,422N/A
9/30/20212,479-4135851,316N/A
6/30/20212,217-7653731,120N/A
3/31/20211,744-1,018-107648N/A
12/31/20201,954-1,142-70803N/A
9/30/20202,069-1,079-144914N/A
6/30/20202,394-700-711,203N/A
3/31/20202,788-316N/A1,665N/A
12/31/20192,81785N/A1,489N/A
9/30/20192,563233N/A1,301N/A
6/30/20192,288154N/A1,073N/A
3/31/20192,06661N/A856N/A
12/31/20181,806161N/A749N/A
9/30/20181,911-163N/A911N/A
6/30/20181,947-286N/A868N/A
3/31/20181,966-278N/A933N/A
12/31/20171,307-553N/A613N/A
9/30/20171,981-89N/A1,139N/A
6/30/20171,956-37N/A1,079N/A
3/31/20171,890-17N/A863N/A
12/31/20161,863-274N/A601N/A
9/30/20161,980-794N/A370N/A
6/30/20162,160-2,367N/A755N/A
3/31/20162,467-2,459N/A871N/A
12/31/20152,787-2,256N/A1,361N/A
9/30/20153,352-1,231N/A2,027N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MUR's forecast earnings growth (17% per year) is above the savings rate (3.7%).

Earnings vs Market: MUR's earnings (17% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MUR's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MUR's revenue (2.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MUR's revenue (2.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MUR's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (8%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/14 04:21
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/11 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Murphy Oil Corporation is covered by 36 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Philip WeissArgus Research Company
Wei JiangBarclays
Randy OllenbergerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research