SM Energy Company

NYSE:SM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$7.7b

SM Energy Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

SM Energy is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 54.7% and 22.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 52.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 19.2% in 3 years.

Key information

54.7%

Earnings growth rate

52.39%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth10.8%
Revenue growth rate22.6%
Future return on equity19.25%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated03 Jun 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jun 02

SM: Civitas Synergies And Debt Reduction Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have lifted their price target on SM Energy from $55.27 to $57.52, citing refreshed assumptions that combine a lower future P/E estimate with updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and discount rates. What's in the News Q1 2026 results came in ahead of Wall Street expectations, with revenue of US$1.48b and adjusted earnings of US$1.55 per share, supported by higher production of 371.2 MBoe/d and integration of the Civitas merger.
Seeking Alpha • Jun 02

SM Energy Looks Undervalued As Deleveraging Gains Traction

Summary SM Energy is now a four-basin operator post-Civitas merger, with a focus on synergy realization and deleveraging. Q1 results demonstrated disciplined capital spending, production outperformance, and rapid synergy capture, supporting a bullish investment case. SM trades at deep valuation discounts (3.99x forward P/E, 3.10x EV/EBITDA) due to debt concerns, but accelerated debt reduction and buybacks could drive re-rating. I rate SM a Buy, as continued execution on debt reduction, operational efficiency, and share repurchases offers significant upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • May 19

We Think That There Are More Issues For SM Energy (NYSE:SM) Than Just Sluggish Earnings

The subdued market reaction suggests that SM Energy Company's ( NYSE:SM ) recent earnings didn't contain any surprises...
Narrative Update • May 18

SM: Higher Production And Payouts Will Mask Weaker Future Profitability

Analysts have maintained SM Energy's price target at $29.00, citing updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E that reflect a more refined view of the company's risk profile and earnings potential. What's in the News SM Energy issued new production guidance for the second quarter of 2026, targeting total production of 39 MMBoe to 41 MMBoe.
Narrative Update • May 03

SM: Future Margins And Capital Returns Will Shape Balanced Share Outlook

Analysts have adjusted their price target on SM Energy from $22.00 to $29.00, citing revised assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, discount rate, and future P/E as the key drivers of this change. What's in the News BofA Securities, Inc.
Narrative Update • Apr 18

SM: Civitas Merger And New CEO Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have adjusted their price target for SM Energy slightly higher, to approximately $55.27 from about $55.01, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples. What's in the News Civitas Resources Inc.
Narrative Update • Apr 04

SM: Civitas Merger And New CEO Will Shape Future Upside

Analysts have raised their price target on SM Energy from $48.00 to about $55.01, citing updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News SM Energy completed a $12.8b merger with Civitas Resources, creating a combined oil and gas producer operating in Utah, Texas and Colorado's Denver Julesburg Basin.
Narrative Update • Mar 21

SM: Post Merger Profit Margin Assumptions Will Pressure Future Share Performance

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for SM Energy from $19.00 to $22.00, citing updated assumptions for profit margin, discount rate, revenue growth, and future P/E as key drivers of the new price target. What's in the News Civitas Resources Inc.
Narrative Update • Mar 07

SM: Merger Integration And Production Outlook Will Shape Future Shareholder Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on SM Energy to $28.82 from $31.42, citing updated assumptions that reflect a lower discount rate, adjusted revenue growth expectations, higher projected profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News SM Energy completed its merger with Civitas Resources in a transaction valued at $12.8b, with the combined company operating oil and natural gas assets in Utah, Texas and Colorado's Denver Julesburg Basin, and continuing to trade on the NYSE under the SM ticker (Executive Changes: CEO).
Narrative Update • Feb 21

SM: Merger Synergies And Margin Pressure Will Constrain Future Share Performance

Analysts have adjusted their price target on SM Energy from $27.00 to $19.00, reflecting updated views on the company’s growth outlook, margin profile, and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News SM Energy closed a $12.8b merger with Civitas Resources Inc.
Narrative Update • Feb 07

SM: Civitas Merger And New Leadership Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have adjusted their price target on SM Energy to reflect an unchanged fair value estimate of $48.00, together with updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E that indicate a different mix of risk and earnings than before. What's in the News SM Energy completed a $12.8b merger with Civitas Resources on January 30, 2026, creating a combined oil and gas producer operating in Utah, Texas and Colorado's Denver Julesburg Basin (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Jan 23

SM: Production Guidance And Buybacks Will Support Future Shareholder Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target for SM Energy by about $1 to reflect updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. What's in the News SM Energy has scheduled a special or extraordinary shareholders meeting for January 27, 2026, which could bring proposals that affect capital structure, governance, or other corporate matters (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Jan 09

SM: Share Repurchases And Production Guidance Will Support Future Shareholder Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on SM Energy from about US$33.50 to roughly US$32.33, citing updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E as the key drivers of the change. What's in the News SM Energy has scheduled a Special or Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for January 27, 2026, giving investors a key date to watch for company level decisions (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Dec 24

SM: Merger Talks And 2025 Production Outlook Will Drive Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their price target on SM Energy to approximately $48.00 from about $56.36. This reflects a view that sharply higher projected revenue growth is likely to be offset by expectations for lower profit margins and a more conservative valuation multiple.
Narrative Update • Dec 10

SM: Merger Talks And Share Repurchases Will Drive Future Shareholder Upside

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on SM Energy from 33.92 dollars to 33.50 dollars. This reflects slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins, even as valuation multiples edge higher.
Narrative Update • Nov 26

SM: Merger Prospects and Leadership Transition Will Unlock Shareholder Value

Analysts have revised their price target for SM Energy, lowering it from $36.64 to $33.92. This change is based on updated forecasts for revenue growth and profit margins.
Narrative Update • Nov 12

SM: Planned Merger and Leadership Transition Will Drive Future Performance

Analysts have lowered their price target for SM Energy from $37.54 to $36.64, citing reduced projections for revenue growth even though profit margins remain stable. What's in the News Civitas Resources Inc.
Analysis Article • Nov 10

SM Energy's (NYSE:SM) Weak Earnings May Only Reveal A Part Of The Whole Picture

Investors were disappointed by SM Energy Company's ( NYSE:SM ) latest earnings release. We did some further digging and...
Narrative Update • Oct 29

Merger Prospects And Rising Oil Output Will Drive Future Gains

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for SM Energy from $38.62 to $37.54. They cite more cautious estimates for revenue growth and profit margins as the reason for the adjustment.
Narrative Update • Oct 14

Uinta Basin Production Will Rise Despite Operational Hurdles

Narrative Update: SM Energy Analyst Price Target Adjustment Analysts have revised SM Energy’s fair value estimate downward from $40.00 to $38.62 per share. This adjustment is due to more conservative revenue growth assumptions, which are partially offset by improved profit margin projections and a lower future price-to-earnings ratio.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 07

SM Energy: Exploring The Factors Behind The Recent -20% Fall

Summary SM Energy's recent -22% sell-off is driven by a sharp decline in crude oil prices and macroeconomic headwinds, including OPEC's production increase and potential global recession. SM Energy's higher leverage ratio of 1.4x, compared to peers, makes it vulnerable in a declining oil price environment, despite plans to reduce debt. The company's decreased hedge ratio exposes it to lower oil prices, impacting profitability, with significant unhedged exposure from 2026 onwards. Expect a short-term rebound in SM equity from oversold conditions, but sustained low oil prices could push the stock to the mid-teens. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:SM - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20287,5091,7062,1524,4274
12/31/20277,6041,8111,9074,51810
12/31/20267,4581,1051,6334,26510
3/31/20263,6171315552,168N/A
12/31/20253,0276485392,011N/A
9/30/20253,167727-1,5482,137N/A
6/30/20253,003812-1,4992,085N/A
3/31/20252,875821-1,5071,990N/A
12/31/20242,574770-1,6321,783N/A
9/30/20242,3378295001,681N/A
6/30/20242,3648114961,612N/A
3/31/20242,2537513281,519N/A
12/31/20232,2698184751,574N/A
9/30/20232,3278292221,386N/A
6/30/20232,5221,0883641,517N/A
3/31/20232,9501,2627051,676N/A
12/31/20223,1961,1128061,686N/A
9/30/20223,3711,2781,1111,828N/A
6/30/20223,2968839721,642N/A
3/31/20222,8723367191,396N/A
12/31/20212,502364821,160N/A
9/30/20211,995-554308987N/A
6/30/20211,516-738245860N/A
3/31/20211,145-604115678N/A
12/31/20201,081-765243791N/A
9/30/20201,205-701114776N/A
6/30/20201,299-56117778N/A
3/31/20201,532-4217923N/A
12/31/20191,525-187N/A824N/A
9/30/20191,471225N/A761N/A
6/30/20191,53747N/A788N/A
3/31/20191,53313N/A699N/A
12/31/20181,573508N/A721N/A
9/30/20181,519172N/A686N/A
6/30/20181,365219N/A585N/A
3/31/20181,25482N/A521N/A
12/31/20171,208-161N/A515N/A
9/30/20171,214-336N/A508N/A
6/30/20171,245-287N/A538N/A
3/31/20171,246-336N/A570N/A
12/31/20161,128-758N/A553N/A
9/30/20161,081-897N/A609N/A
6/30/20161,119-853N/A686N/A
3/31/20161,262-742N/A813N/A
12/31/20151,442-448N/A991N/A
9/30/20151,753224N/A1,166N/A
6/30/20152,024430N/A1,291N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SM's forecast earnings growth (54.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: SM's earnings (54.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SM's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SM's revenue (22.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SM's revenue (22.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SM's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (19.2%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/07 00:52
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/05 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

SM Energy Company is covered by 41 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Joseph AllmanBaird
Jeffrey RobertsonBarclays
Rudolf HokansonBarrington Research Associates, Inc.