Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

NYSE:AJG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$51.7b

Arthur J. Gallagher Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Arthur J. Gallagher is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 13.5% and 10.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 13.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 14.5% in 3 years.

Key information

13.5%

Earnings growth rate

13.51%

EPS growth rate

Insurance earnings growth2.2%
Revenue growth rate10.2%
Future return on equity14.46%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated26 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Aug 05

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ( NYSE:AJG ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell...

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 02

AJG: AI Productivity And Defensive Broker Model Will Support Future Upside

Arthur J. Gallagher's analyst price target has edged lower by about $2, as analysts factor in more measured revenue growth along with slightly softer profit margin and future P/E assumptions, following a series of mixed target revisions and ratings updates across the broker group.
Narrative Update • Apr 17

AJG: AI Productivity And Broker Model Resilience Will Support 2026 Upside

Analysts made a small adjustment to Arthur J. Gallagher's average price target, with updated models pointing to a shift of about $0.10 as they balance slightly higher assumed revenue growth and P/E against reduced margin expectations and mixed views on AI related headwinds and opportunities.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 11

Don't Overlook Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. When Investing

Summary Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is a dominant global insurance broker, delivering 20 consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth and executing transformative M&A. AJG’s integration of AssuredPartners is ahead of schedule, targeting $160 million in 2026 synergies, with a further $100–$120 million by 2028, supporting robust EPS growth. Shares trade at a forward P/E of 15.6, a significant discount to the 10-year average of 24, with a fair value estimate of $299, implying a 29% upside. AJG’s disciplined M&A, strong balance sheet, and focus on complex insurance segments mitigate AI disruption risks and underpin an attractive long-term total return outlook. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 03

AJG: AI Productivity And Broker Resilience Are Expected To Drive 2026 Upside

The analyst price target for Arthur J. Gallagher has been reduced by about $3 to reflect updated Street views that balance softer insurance pricing, AI-related disruption risks, and integration headwinds with what analysts describe as a resilient broker model and potential productivity gains from AI.
New Narrative • Mar 31

Future Risk Advisory And M&A Pipeline Will Drive Stronger Margin Expansion

Catalysts About Arthur J. Gallagher Arthur J.
Narrative Update • Mar 20

AJG: Margin Durability And AI Productivity Are Expected To Support 2026 Upside

Analysts have trimmed the average price target for Arthur J. Gallagher to around $274 from about $282, reflecting tempered assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins.
Narrative Update • Mar 05

AJG: Margin Durability And Softer Cycle Are Expected To Support 2026 Upside

Narrative Update: Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) The analyst price target for Arthur J.
Narrative Update • Feb 19

AJG: Softer Cycle And Integration Pressures Expected To Support 2026 Upside

Analysts have made only a small adjustment to Arthur J. Gallagher's valuation targets, with modest price target trims from several firms partially offset by a few small increases.
Analysis Article • Feb 04

Arthur J. Gallagher's (NYSE:AJG) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

The board of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ( NYSE:AJG ) has announced that it will be paying its dividend of $0.70 on the...
Narrative Update • Feb 04

AJG: Softer Cycle And AssuredPartners Integration Set Up 2026 Recovery

Analysts have modestly reduced their price targets on Arthur J. Gallagher in recent weeks, with the updated fair value estimate moving from about $293.56 to $288.50 as they factor in softer revenue growth assumptions, slightly lower future P/E expectations, and relatively stronger profit margin forecasts reflected across new research from firms revising targets and ratings.
Narrative Update • Jan 20

AJG: Life Deals And Contingents Will Drive Recovery Through 2026

Analysts have trimmed their blended price target for Arthur J. Gallagher by about US$8 to reflect lower assumed fair value and P/E multiples, while incorporating recent research that highlights softer P&C pricing, near term organic growth and margin headwinds, and timing issues around AssuredPartners and large life deals.
Narrative Update • Jan 06

AJG: Maintained 6% Organic Outlook And Life Deals Will Support 2026 Recovery

Analysts have trimmed their average price target for Arthur J. Gallagher to about US$301 from roughly US$308, reflecting mixed Q3 results, valuation pressure across P&C brokers, and timing related headwinds, even as some firms remain constructive on growth into 2026 and have recently inched individual targets higher.
Narrative Update • Dec 14

AJG: Maintained 6% Organic Outlook And Q4 Rebound Will Support 2026 Recovery

Arthur J. Gallagher's analyst price target has been revised modestly lower, with fair value edging down by about $3 to roughly $308 as analysts factor in a recent Q3 earnings miss, softer brokerage trends, and broader P&C valuation pressure, even as they maintain confidence in the company's longer term growth outlook into 2026.
Narrative Update • Nov 29

AJG: Organic Growth Guidance And Q4 Improvements Will Drive Recovery In 2026

The consensus analyst price target for Arthur J. Gallagher has decreased from $319.80 to $311.75.
Narrative Update • Nov 15

AJG: Improving Synergies And Renewed Momentum Will Shape 2026 Prospects

Arthur J. Gallagher’s analyst price target was revised downward from $327.07 to $319.80.
Narrative Update • Oct 31

AJG: Pipeline Of Life Deals And Contingent Fees Will Drive 2026 Momentum

The consensus analyst price target for Arthur J. Gallagher has decreased by approximately $12 to around $327.
Narrative Update • Sep 20

Digital Tools And M&A Will Drive Global Expansion

Analysts have raised Arthur J. Gallagher’s price target to $339.20, citing stronger-than-expected organic brokerage growth, materializing acquisition synergies, and the company’s resilience to softer insurance pricing, outweighing modest concerns about margin pressure.
Analysis Article • Aug 05

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ( NYSE:AJG ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell...
Analysis Article • Jun 02

Shareholders Should Be Pleased With Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s (NYSE:AJG) Price

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s ( NYSE:AJG ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 57.1x might make it look like a strong...

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:AJG - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202820,0903,0104,8014,5765
12/31/202718,4472,9324,2933,9879
12/31/202616,7862,5483,4282,9969
3/31/202614,1981,6121,8622,015N/A
12/31/202513,0091,4941,7851,930N/A
9/30/202512,0791,6011,7681,917N/A
6/30/202511,5521,6411,9722,120N/A
3/31/202511,2441,5592,5252,666N/A
12/31/202410,9281,4632,4412,583N/A
9/30/202410,6681,1722,3932,537N/A
6/30/202410,3891,1402,3332,500N/A
3/31/202410,0771,0912,1992,393N/A
12/31/20239,5599701,8382,032N/A
9/30/20239,2121,1371,7561,946N/A
6/30/20238,8361,1121,5101,691N/A
3/31/20238,4921,1621,4271,602N/A
12/31/20228,2701,1141,2071,390N/A
9/30/20228,2471,0881,1101,276N/A
6/30/20228,3521,0579951,156N/A
3/31/20228,2489631,5631,702N/A
12/31/20217,9749071,2641,392N/A
9/30/20217,7229401,5071,630N/A
6/30/20217,4268911,5941,694N/A
3/31/20217,0838551,8201,917N/A
12/31/20206,7828191,7081,807N/A
9/30/20206,7797751,6271,738N/A
6/30/20206,7577251,3801,502N/A
3/31/20206,8256811,1951,324N/A
12/31/20196,894669N/A1,191N/A
9/30/20196,848688N/A1,030N/A
6/30/20196,808689N/A871N/A
3/31/20196,807694N/A887N/A
12/31/20186,711634N/A765N/A
9/30/20186,581588N/A766N/A
6/30/20186,402571N/A907N/A
3/31/20186,238526N/A621N/A
12/31/20176,051481N/A854N/A
9/30/20175,948505N/A874N/A
6/30/20175,874517N/A781N/A
3/31/20175,849597N/A565N/A
12/31/20165,490397N/A650N/A
9/30/20165,489382N/A695N/A
6/30/20165,427392N/A694N/A
3/31/20165,370381N/A639N/A
12/31/20155,301357N/A686N/A
9/30/20155,209346N/A505N/A
6/30/20155,072306N/A302N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AJG's forecast earnings growth (13.5% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: AJG's earnings (13.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AJG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AJG's revenue (10.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AJG's revenue (10.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AJG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.5%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/31 20:11
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/29 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is covered by 30 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullArgus Research Company
Taylor ScottBarclays
Michael ZaremskiBMO Capital Markets Equity Research