The Progressive Corporation

NYSE:PGR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$116.5b

Progressive Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Progressive's earnings are forecast to decline at 4.7% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 4.8% per year. EPS is expected to decline by 2.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 21.9% in 3 years.

Key information

-4.7%

Earnings growth rate

-2.92%

EPS growth rate

Insurance earnings growth1.8%
Revenue growth rate4.8%
Future return on equity21.87%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated04 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

No updates

Recent updates

Progressive Stock Crash Explained: Strong Business, Falling Shares?

Apr 29

PGR: Expense Efficiencies And Underwriting Discipline Will Support Earnings Through Cycle Changes

Analysts now see Progressive's fair value at $284.03, down from $302.85. This reflects updated views on slightly softer revenue growth, a modestly lower profit margin outlook, and a reduced future P/E multiple, even as recent Street targets have moved both higher and lower on near term pricing power, claims trends, and expense efficiency.

Progressive Corp (PGR): The "Data Sovereign" and the 2026 Underwriting Masterclass

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) entered the mid-April 2026 trading sessions at $212.15 USD on the NYSE, continuing its streak as the gold standard of the property and casualty insurance sector. The central narrative for 2026 is "The Mathematical Moat" : While competitors are still struggling to price risk in an era of skyrocketing vehicle repair costs and climate-driven property losses, Progressive has utilized its two-decade lead in telematics and real-time data ingestion to maintain a market-leading combined ratio of 88.5%.

PGR: AI Expense Efficiencies Will Support Future Earnings Despite Softer Expectations

Analyst price targets for Progressive have edged lower by about $1, reflecting slightly softer assumptions on revenue growth and margins, even as many analysts still highlight areas like AI driven expense efficiencies and personal auto policy growth in their views. Analyst Commentary Street research on Progressive has turned more cautious on valuation, with a series of target cuts across banks and research houses, even as some firms still point to execution strengths in core auto and expense management.

PGR: Policy In Force Expansion And Efficiency Gains Will Support Future Earnings

Analysts have trimmed the Progressive price target by about $5 to reflect slightly lower assumptions for fair value, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E. They cite softer auto pricing power, modestly lower premium growth, and a more competitive personal auto market, while also highlighting operating efficiencies and policy-in-force growth as ongoing supports.

PGR: Softening Cycle And Policy Momentum Will Support Future Earnings Power

The Analyst Price Target for Progressive edges down by about $1 to $238.10 as analysts factor in slightly lower valuation multiples, modestly softer premium growth, and more conservative assumptions for net investment income, while still recognizing steady policy growth and profitability expectations reflected in recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a mix of cautious tweaks and ongoing confidence in Progressive, with most firms trimming price targets rather than making wholesale changes to their broader views on the business.

PGR: Softening Cycle And Policy Momentum Will Support Future Earnings Power

Our fair value estimate for Progressive has been trimmed by about $10 to $239, as analysts factor in slightly softer premium and policy growth, modest pressure on margins, and more conservative assumptions for investment income and future P/E multiples following a series of lower Street price targets. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Progressive reflects a mixed but generally engaged view, with multiple firms fine-tuning their price targets and assumptions rather than making wholesale shifts in stance.

PGR: Underwriting Strength And Policy Momentum Will Support Earnings Through Cycle Changes

Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Progressive, with the updated fair value estimate moving from about $325 to about $303 as they factor in expectations for softer revenue growth, a slightly higher discount rate, a lower future P/E, and modestly higher profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Progressive has been mixed, but there are several clear positive threads that stand out for investors watching how professionals are framing the story.

PGR: Softening Insurance Cycle Will Test But Not Derail Earnings Power

Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Progressive, lowering our fair value estimate by about $6 to $248.98. This reflects slightly lower assumed profit margins and a reduced future P/E multiple, partially offset by modestly higher revenue growth expectations.

PGR: Softer P&C Cycle Will Pressure Margins Despite Policy Momentum

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Progressive from US$215.56 to US$191.52, as they factor in softer P&C pricing and a lower future P/E of about 15x, while still seeing support from personal lines trends and policy growth. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Progressive reflects a mix of optimism on policy growth and margin resilience, alongside a more cautious tone on the broader P&C cycle and the stock's valuation.

PGR: Reaccelerating Auto Policy Additions Will Drive Earnings Power Through 2025

Analysts have nudged our fair value estimate for Progressive slightly lower to $255.13 from $257.44, reflecting a modest reset in top-line growth expectations, while still highlighting resilient underwriting profitability, accelerating personal auto policy growth, and lighter catastrophe losses that together support higher earnings power over time. Analyst Commentary Street research on Progressive reflects a broadly constructive fundamental backdrop with some valuation discipline and event driven caution.

PGR: Strong Underwriting And Policy Momentum Will Drive Earnings Power Ahead

Analysts modestly reduced their price target on Progressive to about $325 from roughly $344, reflecting slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins. They also cite resilient policy growth, solid underwriting performance, and ongoing earnings power as supporting the stock's longer term value.

PGR: Improving Margins And Customer Additions Will Drive Stronger Performance Through 2025

Progressive's analyst price target has been modestly lowered, declining by approximately $2 to around $257, as analysts cite recent fluctuations in policy growth and underlying profitability trends that support their revised outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst commentary on Progressive reflects a dynamic outlook, with both bullish and bearish perspectives shaping the current consensus.

PGR: Sustained Margin Strength And Share Repurchases Will Support Outperformance Ahead

The analyst price target for Progressive has been revised downward by nearly $2 to approximately $259 per share. Analysts cite recent policyholder credits and mixed sector performance as reasons for moderating expectations.

PGR: Earnings Momentum Will Outpace Sector Headwinds Amid Market Shifts

Progressive's analyst price target has been revised downward from approximately $273 to $261, as analysts cite industry underperformance and company-specific developments such as lower than expected premium growth and the impact of one-time items on near-term results. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Progressive highlights a nuanced outlook, with both optimistic and cautious perspectives shaping the investment case.

Advanced Analytics Will Reshape Auto Insurance Amid Competition Risks

Progressive's analyst price target has decreased modestly, dropping by $5.42 to $272.74. Analysts point to slower revenue growth and profit margin pressures, partially offset by industry-wide improvements in catastrophe losses and continued earnings resilience.

Advanced Analytics Will Reshape Auto Insurance Amid Competition Risks

Progressive’s consensus price target was revised downward to $278.16, as analysts balanced solid recent earnings and investment income against growing concerns over softer policy growth, intensifying competition, and margin normalization, which are expected to cap near-term upside. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite recent earnings outperformance, particularly in July and August, driving upward EPS revisions and improved investment income outlooks despite ongoing competitive pressures.

Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.10

Sep 18
Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.10

Advanced Analytics Will Reshape Auto Insurance Amid Competition Risks

Analysts cite persistent profit margin strength but growing caution around slowing growth prospects, increased competition, and sector headwinds—factors that offset upside potential and result in the consensus Analyst Price Target remaining unchanged at $283.56. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite Progressive's consistent outperformance on profit margins, with recent operating EPS beats exceeding expectations and normalized underwriting margin forecasts being revised slightly higher into 2027.

Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.10

Aug 21
Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.10

Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.10

Jul 02
Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.10

Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.10

Jun 18
Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.10

Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.10

May 22
Progressive (NYSE:PGR) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.10

Progressive Corporation: Performance Remains Strong, But Valuation Is Elevated

Apr 21

The Progressive Corporation: Earnings Have Exploded, Take Advantage Of Recent Price Drop And Buy

Apr 12

Progressive: Fundamentally Strong, But Earning Multiples Are Elevated, Hold For Now

Mar 18

Progressive: One Of The Most Resilient Uptrends, Still Fairly Priced

Feb 06

Progressive: Profitability And Valuations Indicates Hold

Jan 21

Progressive: A Priced-For-Perfection Industry Outperformer

Jan 04

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:PGR - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2028101,8759,474N/AN/A4
12/31/202795,1649,595N/AN/A9
12/31/202688,0029,703N/AN/A8
3/31/202689,41511,559N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202587,63711,30817,20017,548N/A
9/30/202585,16610,71317,04917,386N/A
6/30/202582,37610,43216,47216,800N/A
3/31/202578,5088,71615,73316,027N/A
12/31/202475,3438,46314,83415,119N/A
9/30/202471,9618,08514,29114,548N/A
6/30/202467,8026,86213,12213,359N/A
3/31/202465,0225,73812,17012,429N/A
12/31/202362,0833,86510,39110,643N/A
9/30/202358,6612,7078,9199,136N/A
6/30/202355,8821,7147,4557,743N/A
3/31/202352,0488286,5346,796N/A
12/31/202249,5876956,5576,849N/A
9/30/202248,6098316,0716,371N/A
6/30/202247,6878256,4346,715N/A
3/31/202248,0732,1587,3847,650N/A
12/31/202147,6773,3247,5187,762N/A
9/30/202146,6024,0468,6228,857N/A
6/30/202145,6925,4587,7547,965N/A
3/31/202144,7606,4597,6837,894N/A
12/31/202042,6385,6786,6826,906N/A
9/30/202041,9635,0646,2286,487N/A
6/30/202040,5454,3756,4956,766N/A
3/31/202039,0223,5645,6696,019N/A
12/31/201938,9983,943N/A6,262N/A
9/30/201936,2923,137N/A6,217N/A
6/30/201935,2573,224N/A6,176N/A
3/31/201933,8242,949N/A6,406N/A
12/31/201831,9552,594N/A6,285N/A
9/30/201831,0412,912N/A5,735N/A
6/30/201829,3372,215N/A5,218N/A
3/31/201827,9241,885N/A4,400N/A
12/31/201726,8161,592N/A3,757N/A
9/30/201725,8231,399N/A3,680N/A
6/30/201724,9671,374N/A3,184N/A
3/31/201724,1811,197N/A3,018N/A
12/31/201623,4171,031N/A2,733N/A
9/30/201622,690978N/A2,408N/A
6/30/201622,0291,058N/A2,434N/A
3/31/201621,4951,230N/A2,340N/A
12/31/201520,8321,268N/A2,293N/A
9/30/201520,6091,307N/A2,229N/A
6/30/201520,1061,325N/A2,114N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PGR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-4.7% per year).

Earnings vs Market: PGR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-4.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PGR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PGR's revenue (4.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PGR's revenue (4.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PGR's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (21.9%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/04 10:34
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/04 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

The Progressive Corporation is covered by 41 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jacob KilsteinArgus Research Company
Taylor ScottBarclays
Jay GelbBarclays