Alcoa (AA) Stock Overview
Engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 6/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 4/6 |
| Financial Health | 5/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
No risks detected for AA from our risk checks.
AA Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 68 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Materials opportunity
ST
Fair Value from
CA$5.0771.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
An Undervalued 3.3Moz Gold Project in Canada
Key takeaways Upside Gold is developing the Kena Gold Project, near the town of Nelson in the Kootenays region of southern British Columbia. Kena hosts a historical gold resource of 3.33 million ounces (561,000 ounces Indicated and 2.77 million ounces Inferred) across a 10,200-hectare land package.
Read full narrativeAlcoa Corporation Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$62.46 |
| 52 Week High | US$75.70 |
| 52 Week Low | US$24.15 |
| Beta | 1.7 |
| 1 Month Change | -12.68% |
| 3 Month Change | 1.81% |
| 1 Year Change | 149.14% |
| 3 Year Change | 69.64% |
| 5 Year Change | 52.19% |
| Change since IPO | 177.60% |
Recent News & Updates
AA: Higher Margin Outlook And Production Plans Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target for Alcoa to $73.87 from $72.48, reflecting updated expectations around potential revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa reported first quarter 2026 production results, with Bauxite output of 9.1 mdmt compared with 9.5 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina production of 2,355 kmt in line with the prior year, and Aluminum production of 607 kmt compared with 564 kmt a year ago (Key Developments).AA: Updated Output Plans And Margins Will Shape Measured Future Returns
Analysts have revised their price target for Alcoa to approximately $72, up from about $67, citing updated assumptions around fair value, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Alcoa reported fourth quarter 2025 production with Bauxite at 9.4 mdmt versus 9.3 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina at 2,481 kmt versus 2,390 kmt, and Aluminum at 604 kmt versus 571 kmt (Announcement of Operating Results).Alcoa Can See Tailwinds Driven By Geopolitical Risk
Apr 08Recent updates
AA: Higher Margin Outlook And Production Plans Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target for Alcoa to $73.87 from $72.48, reflecting updated expectations around potential revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa reported first quarter 2026 production results, with Bauxite output of 9.1 mdmt compared with 9.5 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina production of 2,355 kmt in line with the prior year, and Aluminum production of 607 kmt compared with 564 kmt a year ago (Key Developments).AA: Updated Output Plans And Margins Will Shape Measured Future Returns
Analysts have revised their price target for Alcoa to approximately $72, up from about $67, citing updated assumptions around fair value, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Alcoa reported fourth quarter 2025 production with Bauxite at 9.4 mdmt versus 9.3 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina at 2,481 kmt versus 2,390 kmt, and Aluminum at 604 kmt versus 571 kmt (Announcement of Operating Results).Alcoa Can See Tailwinds Driven By Geopolitical Risk
Apr 08
AA: Higher Output And Trading Volumes Will Likely Still Fail To Justify Pricing
Analysts now place Alcoa's price target at about $46.37, compared with the prior $38.00. This reflects updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, discount rate, and future P/E levels.AA: Production Plans And Margin Expectations Will Guide Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have adjusted their fair value estimate for Alcoa to $66.92 from $61.42, reflecting updated assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Alcoa issued production guidance for 2026, targeting total Alumina segment production between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons, with shipments between 11.8 and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting the role of trading volumes and externally sourced alumina in meeting customer contracts (company guidance).AA: Production Guidance And Margin Assumptions Will Shape Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their Alcoa price target slightly higher to $61.42 from $61.08, reflecting updated assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and a modestly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa issued 2026 production guidance for its Alumina segment, with expected production between 9.7 million and 9.9 million metric tons and shipments between 11.8 million and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting the use of trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to meet customer contracts (Corporate guidance).AA: Higher Margins And Production Will Still Likely Fail To Justify Pricing
Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from $33.00 to $38.00, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth expectations, profit margin outlook, and a revised future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa issued production guidance for 2025 and outlined expectations for 2026, with the Alumina segment projected to produce between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons in 2026, and shipments expected between 11.8 and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting a mix of internal production, trading volumes, and externally sourced alumina to meet customer contracts (company guidance).AA: Low Carbon Smelting And Margin Assumptions Will Shape Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from US$45.42 to US$61.08. They cite updates in their models that reflect revised assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples.AA: Future Decarbonization Benefits Will Likely Fail To Justify Current Pricing
Analysts have lifted their price target on Alcoa from US$27.00 to US$33.00, pointing to updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and a lower future P/E as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball Corporation and Unilever announced the first use of ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology in consumer personal and home care packaging, using aluminum that eliminates direct smelting greenhouse gas emissions and generates oxygen instead of CO2 (Key Developments).
AA: Carbon Free Smelting And Energy Moves Will Support Balanced Long Term Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from approximately $42 to $58 per share, citing expectations for faster revenue growth, significantly higher profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple. Together, these factors support a meaningfully higher fair value estimate.Alcoa Corporation's (NYSE:AA) Share Price Boosted 29% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too
Dec 30
AA: Low Carbon Smelting Shift Will Likely Pressure Future Returns
Narrative Update on Alcoa Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa by approximately 10 percent to around 45 dollars per share, citing expectations for modestly stronger revenue growth, materially improved profit margins, and a more attractive forward earnings multiple. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball and Unilever unveiled the first consumer packaging using ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology, combining low carbon primary aluminum with recycled content to create one of the lowest footprint aerosol cans on the market (company announcement).AA: Low Carbon Initiatives And Portfolio Reshaping Will Define Future Performance
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Alcoa from approximately 39.54 dollars to 41.29 dollars, citing higher long term revenue growth expectations and a richer future earnings multiple, despite a lower projected profit margin and slightly higher discount rate. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball and Unilever unveiled the first consumer packaging using ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology in low carbon aerosol cans ahead of COP30, highlighting a major step toward decarbonized aluminum supply chains (Key Developments).AA: Measured Shifts in Operations and Partnerships Will Shape Future Performance
Narrative Update on Alcoa: Analyst Price Target Adjustment Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Alcoa, revising the price target from $39.63 to $39.54 per share. This change reflects modest adjustments to outlooks on discount rate and growth assumptions.AA: Future Investments and Facility Upgrades Will Drive Shareholder Value
Analysts have raised their price target for Alcoa slightly. The new target is $39.63, up from $39.21.Analysts Raise Alcoa Price Target as New Partnerships and Plant Closure Drive Valuation Upward
Alcoa's analyst price target has increased from $36.64 to $39.21. This change reflects improved revenue growth and profit margin projections according to analysts.Tariff Volatility And Recycled Materials Will Erode Primary Aluminum Margins
Analysts have raised their price target for Alcoa from $34.09 to $36.64. They cite improved forecast profit margins and lower expected future price-to-earnings ratios as key factors in their updated outlook.Tariff Volatility And Recycled Materials Will Erode Primary Aluminum Margins
Despite a notable downgrade in revenue growth expectations, an improved net profit margin has offset this impact, resulting in a slight increase in Alcoa's analyst price target from $33.55 to $34.09. What's in the News Held Analyst/Investor Day event.
Australia Refinancing And San Ciprián Restart Will Support Stable Operations
Strategic refinancing and joint ventures are expected to enhance cash flow, reduce interest expenses, and stabilize revenue.Alcoa's Q1 2025 Review: Tariff Hurts, But Game Isn't Over
Apr 18Alcoa And The Aluminum Market: A Point Of Tension And Growth
Mar 30The 'Trump Factor' In Action: Why I'm Bullish On Alcoa
Feb 11Alcoa: The Tides Have Shifted To A Bullish Market
Jan 30Alcoa: Learn How To Trade A Sentiment-Based Stock (Technical Analysis)
Jan 06Alcoa Corporation: Bearish Market, And Tariff Uncertainty Blur Positive Signals, Hold
Dec 31Alcoa's Financial Position Is Improving: Upgraded To A Buy Rating
Sep 22Shareholder Returns
| AA | US Metals and Mining | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -7.3% | -5.2% | 0.6% |
| 1Y | 149.1% | 82.3% | 28.4% |
Return vs Industry: AA exceeded the US Metals and Mining industry which returned 82.3% over the past year.
Return vs Market: AA exceeded the US Market which returned 28.4% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| AA volatility | |
|---|---|
| AA Average Weekly Movement | 7.9% |
| Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement | 10.8% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.1% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.2% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: AA has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: AA's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1886 | 14,900 | Bill Oplinger | www.alcoa.com |
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses.
Alcoa Corporation Fundamentals Summary
| AA fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$16.53b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$1.03b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$12.66b |
16.0x
P/E Ratio1.3x
P/S RatioIs AA overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| AA income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$12.66b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$10.61b |
| Gross Profit | US$2.04b |
| Other Expenses | US$1.02b |
| Earnings | US$1.03b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 3.89 |
| Gross Margin | 16.14% |
| Net Profit Margin | 8.12% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 37.0% |
How did AA perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
0.6%
Current Dividend Yield8%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/04 17:27 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/04 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Alcoa Corporation is covered by 29 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Coleman | Argus Research Company |
| Dale Koenders | Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited |
| Paretosh Misra | Berenberg |