Metallus Inc.

NYSE:MTUS Stock Report

Market Cap: US$793.8m

Metallus Past Earnings Performance

Past criteria checks 2/6

Metallus's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -40.9%, while the Metals and Mining industry saw earnings declining at 4.1% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 0.7% per year. Metallus's return on equity is 0.4%, and it has net margins of 0.2%.

Key information

-40.88%

Earnings growth rate

-40.29%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining Industry Growth26.40%
Revenue growth rate-0.74%
Return on equity0.42%
Net Margin0.24%
Last Earnings Update31 Mar 2026

Recent past performance updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update Apr 25

MTUS: Sector Weight View Will Rely On Steady Execution And Buyback Discipline

Analysts have kept Metallus' fair value estimate essentially unchanged at $18.00 per share, citing recent Street research that assigns the stock a Sector Weight rating as the primary support for maintaining this price target. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research initiating coverage with a Sector Weight stance gives investors a neutral reference point around the US$18.00 fair value estimate.
Narrative Update Apr 10

MTUS: Buybacks And Labor Agreement Progress Will Support Sector Weight View

Analysts have revised their price target on Metallus to $18.00, aligning with prior fair value estimates. The new target reflects updated views on discount rates, future P/E assumptions, and the recent Sector Weight rating initiation from KeyBanc coverage.
Narrative Update Mar 27

MTUS: Buybacks And Labor Progress Will Support Sector Weight Case Into 2026

Analysts have adjusted their outlook on Metallus with a modestly refined price target of about $18.00, reflecting updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E following the latest sector weight initiation from Street research. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the sector weight stance as consistent with an $18.00 target, suggesting the stock is roughly aligned with peers on risk and return expectations.
Narrative Update Mar 13

MTUS: Buybacks And New Labor Agreement Will Support Upside Into 2026

Analysts have modestly lifted their price target on Metallus to $18.00, reflecting small adjustments to assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E that leave their fair value view unchanged at $18.00. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, Metallus repurchased 70,701 shares, representing 0.17% of shares, for US$1.21 million under its existing buyback program (company disclosure).
Narrative Update Feb 25

MTUS: Tentative Labor Agreement And Buybacks Will Underpin Balanced 2026 Outlook

Analysts have revised their price target on Metallus from $20.50 to $18.00, reflecting updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples that point to a more reserved outlook for the shares. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, Metallus repurchased 70,701 shares, representing 0.17% of shares, for $1.21 million under its existing buyback program.
Seeking Alpha Feb 25

Metallus Share Price Pullback Bring New Opportunity For Long-Term Investors

Summary Metallus upgraded to Strong Buy with a $32/share price target, reflecting optimism on 2026 growth drivers and undervaluation. MTUS is positioned for volume and pricing tailwinds as new production ramps up, supported by robust aerospace & defense demand and DoD munitions contracts. Operational enhancements, including automation and new furnaces, are set to boost melt utilization and cash flow positive status by e2h26. Risks include potential steel tariff rollbacks impacting pricing power. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update Feb 08

MTUS: Future Returns Will Reflect Canton Labor Deal Progress And Steady Buybacks

Analysts have kept their Metallus fair value target steady at $20.00 while fine tuning assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and forward P/E to reflect updated views on the company’s risk profile and earnings power. What's in the News Metallus and United Steelworkers (USW) Local 1123 reached a new tentative four year labor agreement after earlier proposals were rejected on October 30 and December 18, 2025.
Narrative Update Jan 24

MTUS: Future Returns Will Balance Canton Labor Deal Uncertainty And Ongoing Buybacks

Analysts have nudged their Metallus price target to US$20.00, reflecting slightly adjusted assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E that collectively fine tune their outlook rather than overhaul it. What's in the News Metallus and United Steelworkers (USW) Local 1123 reached a new tentative four year labor agreement after earlier proposals were rejected on October 30 and December 18, 2025.
Narrative Update Jan 09

MTUS: Future Returns Will Balance Labor Contract Uncertainty And Measured Buyback Support

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Metallus from $17.00 to $20.00 per share, citing updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E levels. What's in the News Members of United Steelworkers Local 1123 voted not to ratify a second tentative labor agreement reached on December 4, 2025.
Narrative Update Dec 25

MTUS: Future Returns Will Balance Labor Uncertainty And Modest Profit Expectations

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Metallus from 18.00 dollars to 17.00 dollars, reflecting a more cautious view on revenue growth and profit margins. This is partly offset by a higher assumed future earnings multiple.
Narrative Update Dec 11

MTUS: Labor Agreement Progress Will Support Share Upside Into 2026

Analysts have nudged their price target on Metallus modestly higher to approximately $20.50 per share, citing slightly increased discount rate and valuation multiple assumptions, while leaving core growth and margin expectations effectively unchanged. What's in the News Metallus and United Steelworkers (USW) Local 1123 reached a new tentative four year labor agreement after members rejected the prior proposal on October 30, 2025, with a second vote date to be announced and the current contract extended to January 29, 2026 (company filing).
Narrative Update Nov 27

MTUS: Labor Contract Extension Will Support Positive Momentum Into 2026

Analysts have maintained Metallus's price target at $20.50, citing small revisions to growth and profitability estimates. These changes offset each other and support continued confidence in the company's fair value.
Narrative Update Nov 13

MTUS: Ongoing Labor Negotiations Will Drive Momentum After Contract Extension

Narrative Update on Metallus Analysts have lowered their price target for Metallus from $21.00 to $20.50, citing more conservative growth and profit margin forecasts for the company. What's in the News Members of United Steelworkers (USW) Local 1123 voted not to ratify the tentative labor agreement with Metallus.
Analysis Article Oct 24

Metallus Inc.'s (NYSE:MTUS) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking

With a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x Metallus Inc. ( NYSE:MTUS ) may be sending very bullish signals at the...
Analysis Article Jul 03

Estimating The Fair Value Of Metallus Inc. (NYSE:MTUS)

Key Insights Metallus' estimated fair value is US$16.95 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Metallus' US$16.58...
Analysis Article May 10

Market Cool On Metallus Inc.'s (NYSE:MTUS) Revenues

You may think that with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.5x Metallus Inc. ( NYSE:MTUS ) is a stock worth checking...
Analysis Article Apr 04

Metallus (NYSE:MTUS) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...
Analysis Article Mar 06

We Think You Can Look Beyond Metallus' (NYSE:MTUS) Lackluster Earnings

Investors were disappointed with the weak earnings posted by Metallus Inc. ( NYSE:MTUS ). However, our analysis...
Analysis Article Mar 04

Metallus (NYSE:MTUS) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...
Analysis Article Dec 19

Is Metallus (NYSE:MTUS) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
Analysis Article Nov 07

Metallus (NYSE:MTUS) Is Doing The Right Things To Multiply Its Share Price

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? In a...
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New Narrative Sep 18

Decisive Investments In Safety And Tech Set To Sharpen Competitive Edge In Aerospace And Defense

Strategic investments in safety and technology aim to enhance operational efficiencies and employee productivity, reducing costs and improving net margins.
Analysis Article Aug 15

The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From Metallus Inc.'s (NYSE:MTUS) Revenues Yet As Shares Tumble 29%

Metallus Inc. ( NYSE:MTUS ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 29...
Analysis Article Aug 03

Is Metallus (NYSE:MTUS) Using Too Much Debt?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Analysis Article Jul 16

Investors Will Want Metallus' (NYSE:MTUS) Growth In ROCE To Persist

Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...
Analysis Article Apr 17

Do Metallus' (NYSE:MTUS) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...
Analysis Article Dec 15

Investors Will Want TimkenSteel's (NYSE:TMST) Growth In ROCE To Persist

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Firstly, we'd want to identify a...
Analysis Article Oct 19

Calculating The Fair Value Of TimkenSteel Corporation (NYSE:TMST)

Key Insights TimkenSteel's estimated fair value is US$18.13 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share...
Seeking Alpha Oct 17

Additional Headwinds Lie Ahead For TimkenSteel

Summary TimkenSteel stock receives a Hold rating due to uncertain short-term outlook for the company and the steel producers in general. The company's profitability has underperformed with lower sales and decreased EBITDA margins. Adverse macroeconomic and operational factors are expected to push the share price lower in the near future. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article Aug 27

TimkenSteel's (NYSE:TMST) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher

If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Firstly, we'd want to identify a...
Analysis Article Aug 05

Here's Why TimkenSteel (NYSE:TMST) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Seeking Alpha Jul 09

TimkenSteel Corporation - Looks Like A Buy Despite Recent Run-Up

Summary TimkenSteel Corporation (TMST) has seen a rebound in its share price after a low point of $15.7 per share, with net sales increasing by 32% sequentially to $323 million. The company returned over $28 million to shareholders, more than its net income for the quarter, with strong shareholder incentives from management making TMST a recommended buy. Despite the cyclical nature of the steel industry and potential risks, TMST's strong financial position, zero debt, and ability to support strong yearly buybacks make it a good investment for exposure to the steel industry. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article Jun 07

Calculating The Fair Value Of TimkenSteel Corporation (NYSE:TMST)

Key Insights TimkenSteel's estimated fair value is US$16.99 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity TimkenSteel's...
Analysis Article Mar 13

TimkenSteel (NYSE:TMST) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that...
Seeking Alpha Feb 22

TimkenSteel Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

TimkenSteel (NYSE:TMST) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Wednesday, February 22nd, after market close. The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.26 and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $321.4M (-5.0% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, TMST has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 2 downward.
Analysis Article Feb 06

Investors Shouldn't Overlook TimkenSteel's (NYSE:TMST) Impressive Returns On Capital

To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? In a perfect world, we'd...
Seeking Alpha Jan 19

TimkenSteel: Key Macro And Business Implications To Monitor

Summary Within the steel industry, TimkenSteel Corporation has a Hold rating as the company's outlook remains unclear due to macroeconomic and corporate factors. Investors are awaiting signs that melt utilization will recover to early 2022 levels following the July 2022 explosion at TimkenSteel's Faircrest plant. The company expects demand for TimkenSteel steel products to be resilient in all end markets in 2023 amid the possibility of a mild recession. Conflicting Factors Make It Difficult To Forecast How Steel Prices Will Develop Today, more than ever, it is virtually impossible to predict the next evolution of the price of steel, one of the most widely used basic materials across industries worldwide, due to the numerous factors at play that work in the opposite direction. Based on the current situation in the People's Republic of China, where the lifting of zero-tolerance measures against COVID-19 will lead to a strong recovery in housing, construction, mining and manufacturing activities, global demand for steel products may gain momentum, as China is the world's largest consumer of “apparent steel.” Statista.com analysts clarify that the apparent steel metric is used to measure demand for steel products, as the metric is calculated by subtracting net exports of steel products from production plus net imports. But with sanctions on Russia and the decline in U.S. industrial production and U.S. retail sales, not to mention job cuts at multinationals and the recession risk in the European Union due to the ECB's hawkish stance, the headwinds will not only further impact steel demand and weigh on various end markets, but could also depress steel product prices. Therefore, it would be prudent not to go beyond a Hold stance on shares of publicly traded companies manufacturing steel products, as very uncertain timing means a very high risk of misjudgment. TimkenSteel Corporation Stock Is A “Hold” For example, TimkenSteel Corporation (TMST) is given a Hold rating, as the company's prospects remain unclear due to the following factors. This is due, among other things, to lower shipments and market-driven reductions in per tonne surcharges impacting profitability, while demand for steel products is still rated by the company as strong in all end markets based on customer backlogs and 2023 production capacity commitments. TimkenSteel Corporation In The Basic Materials Sector Headquartered in Canton, Ohio, TimkenSteel Corporation produces high-performance carbon steel and alloy steel products from recycled scrap metal at its Canton manufacturing facility. The company offers its products to a variety of end markets in the automotive, energy, industrial equipment, mining, construction, railroad, defense and agriculture industries. The company's products consist primarily of alloy steel bars (diameter up to 16 inches), seamless mechanical tubing, and various fabricated components. With more than 100 years of experience in manufacturing high-quality steel tubes, TimkenSteel Corporation is a leading manufacturer in the United States bar steel industry with total sales of $1.3 billion in 2021 and employs approximately 1,725 people. The Situation Of The Operation As Of Q3 2022 The company recently reported an issue related to lower sales volumes, the main cause being the incident at TimkenSteel's Faircrest plant in July that impacted the availability of the inventory of steel products for shipment and resulted in lower shipments. On July 26, 2022, three workers were seriously injured in the explosion at TimkenSteel's Faircrest plant. The reason for the incident was the fire that broke out in the area of the melting plant, in which a blast furnace was involved. Several other incidents occurred in the past and resulted in TimkenSteel being subpoenaed by OSHA, part of the U.S. Department of Labor, for safety violations. The melt's utilization rate was halved as a result of the incident, and subsequently the operational shortcoming was reflected in uncovered fixed costs which, together with other costs from ramping up the production and higher maintenance and repair costs, reduced profitability. In addition, there are currently factors such as inflation, for which the company has little leeway, but which nonetheless affect operating costs. Relevant Financial Results From Q3 2022 So, for the third quarter of 2022, the company reported net sales of $316.8 million, down 7.8% year-on-year, and on an adjusted basis, the company reported a net loss of $4.1 million, or a diluted net loss of $0.09 per share. On an adjusted basis, the company also reported an EBITDA of $10.8 million, down 85% year over year, while the EBITDA Margin of 3.4% of total sales compared to 20.9% in the prior-year quarter. TimkenSteel Corporation shipped 158,500 tons of steel products in Q3 2022, down 25% from Q3 2021 due to the melt incident in July 2022. As of September 30, 2022, total cash and cash equivalents reached a record $262.5 million. Total liquidity, including the credit facility due September 30, 2022, was $487.2 million. The financial position of TimkenSteel Corporation appears to be on solid footing. This rating is primarily driven by an Interest Coverage Ratio of 54.4, indicating that the US steelmaker has no difficulty paying interest charges due to its borrowings. The interest coverage ratio is calculated as a 12-month trailing operating income of $217.7 million divided by a 12-month trailing interest expense of $4 million. The Altman Z-Score, which measures the likelihood of the company going bankrupt, currently shows no risk as it indicates safe areas at 3.35. If the ratio is less than or equal to 1.8, there is a high risk of bankruptcy within a few years, associated with financial distress. A ratio that fluctuates between 1.8 and 3 warns that the company may go bankrupt, but this is less likely than in areas of financial distress. Operations Improve However, melt utilization is gradually improving due to progress in monthly production ramp-ups, and if the utilization ratio has recovered to 60% in the last quarter of 2022, that means the asset has a high chance to return to pre-incident levels of around 85% in the first quarter of 2023. The operating and financial results for the last quarter of 2022, which TimkenSteel Corporation is expected to publish on February 23, 2023, will provide a good indication of whether the melt's utilization rate is on track to achieve above recovery level. If the fourth quarter 2022 earnings report indicates that the company is bullish on the recovery in melt utilization rate, the information could potentially have a positive impact on the stock price as the restored facility helps address issues that have hitherto impacted inventory levels and the profitability of the operation. If the melt utilization recovery is on track, TimkenSteel Corporation would send a strong signal to its shareholders, who are waiting for their holding to catch up on a backlog of customer orders and exploit production capacity. With the Q3 2022 earnings report, the U.S. steelmaker estimated that more than 300,000 tons of steel products had to be shipped, while production capacity was already almost fully deployed for customer orders in 2023. Inflationary Pressures and the Likelihood of a Soft Landing for the Economy There are inflationary or market factors that may affect the TimkenSteel Corporation's profitability through increased expenditure on inputs or unfavorable changes in the surcharge revenue per ton and in the prices of the steel products the company sells in the various markets. The profitability of TimkenSteel Corporation and other competitors is being challenged by a highly uncertain environment that leaves shareholders with a clear question mark as to whether prices and other terms will be more or less favorable in 2023 than in 2022. In terms of annual price agreements with customers, TimkenSteel Corporation expects better prices in 2023 than in 2022. While inflationary pressures should ease on an effectively aggressive rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, which may decide to implement lower rate hikes from now onward, but not the ECB, which is expected to proceed with 50 basis point hikes. Should a mild or no recession materialize, with the first scenario being more likely than the second, the impact on steel demand could be much smaller than expected. About the supply side, this is currently being impacted by a sharp drop in shipments from Brazil's key producers and disruptions to stable exports from Australia, a leading steel-producing country in the world, due to Tropical Storm Ellie. So, supply and demand could create a very attractive pricing environment for TimkenSteel Corporation. Stock Valuation Driven by an 18% rise in the price of steel, TimkenSteel Corporation shares have also recovered somewhat from the slump that occurred in the early June 2022 to late September 2022 period, and at the time of writing, they were trading at $18.85 per share. Source: Seeking Alpha The stock has a market cap of $825.80 million and a 52-week range of $12.67 to $26.23. Shares are almost on par with the long-term trend of the 200-day simple moving average line of $18.54. They are also below the middle point of $19.45 of the 52-week range. As a result, TimkenSteel Corporation shares are trading at low levels compared to recent market valuations. The near-term outlook for steel product demand and prices is encouraging and the company should be able to capitalize on the outlook when it resumes operations at its Faircrest, Ohio plant, which is recovering from the July accident in 2022.

Revenue & Expenses Breakdown

How Metallus makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.


Earnings and Revenue History

NYSE:MTUS Revenue, expenses and earnings (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsG+A ExpensesR&D Expenses
31 Mar 261,1863890
31 Dec 251,158-1950
30 Sep 251,132-8950
30 Jun 251,053-22930
31 Mar 251,043-21920
31 Dec 241,0841920
30 Sep 241,172241260
30 Jun 241,299551230
31 Mar 241,361791220
31 Dec 231,362691210
30 Sep 231,28035790
30 Jun 231,242-3780
31 Mar 231,30142370
31 Dec 221,33065180
30 Sep 221,423155-150
30 Jun 221,450219-200
31 Mar 221,361198130
31 Dec 211,283171200
30 Sep 211,156101562
30 Jun 211,01837492
31 Mar 21845-32472
31 Dec 20831-62650
30 Sep 20846-1341054
30 Jun 20915-1371144
31 Mar 201,098-1331264
31 Dec 191,209-1101114
30 Sep 191,388-431098
30 Jun 191,524-251108
31 Mar 191,601-51098
31 Dec 181,611-101088
30 Sep 181,546-26848
30 Jun 181,475-33798
31 Mar 181,401-40828
31 Dec 171,329-31878
30 Sep 171,203-77738
30 Jun 171,077-93828
31 Mar 17961-101838
31 Dec 16870-1051498
30 Sep 16861-35789
30 Jun 16880-44839
31 Mar 16935-62909
31 Dec 151,106-45999
30 Sep 151,308-321089
30 Jun 151,509251129

Quality Earnings: MTUS has a large one-off loss of $6.7M impacting its last 12 months of financial results to 31st March, 2026.

Growing Profit Margin: MTUS became profitable in the past.


Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MTUS has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by -40.9% per year.

Accelerating Growth: MTUS has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: MTUS has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Metals and Mining industry (86.6%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: MTUS's Return on Equity (0.4%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 17:46
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Metallus Inc. is covered by 11 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Seth RosenfeldBNP Paribas
Martin EnglertJefferies LLC
Michael GambardellaJ.P. Morgan