Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation

NasdaqGS:ADPT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.9b

Adaptive Biotechnologies Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Adaptive Biotechnologies is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 75.5% and 16.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 75.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 22.7% in 3 years.

Key information

75.5%

Earnings growth rate

75.92%

EPS growth rate

Life Sciences earnings growth18.6%
Revenue growth rate16.3%
Future return on equity22.66%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated03 Aug 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha Jul 31

Adaptive Biotechnologies: The MRD Separation Creates A Pure-Play Compounder

Summary Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) is transitioning to a pure-play MRD diagnostics company, with the spin-off of Immune Medicine revealing strong underlying profitability. MRD revenue grew 49% year-over-year (excluding milestones), sequencing gross margins exceeded 70%, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 14%, supporting a high-growth, high-quality earnings profile. Refinancing eliminated a 5% perpetual revenue burden, while the planned separation of Immune Medicine should clarify earnings and remove $6M in quarterly adjusted EBITDA losses. clonoSEQ adoption is accelerating, with blood-based testing at 51% of MRD volume, a 65% increase in community oncology, and a $245M pharma backlog, supporting a robust long-term growth runway. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update Jul 30

ADPT: MRD Focus And Volume Trends May Support Balanced Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their price targets higher on Adaptive Biotechnologies, with moves such as TD Cowen lifting its target to $25, Morgan Stanley to $20, and Guggenheim to $22. They cite model updates, large addressable markets, strong volume trends, and improving pricing as key supports for the revised valuation setup.
Narrative Update Jul 15

ADPT: MRD Separation And Clinical Adoption Will Shape Future Cash Flows

The analyst price target for Adaptive Biotechnologies has been updated from $22.00 to about $24.91. Analysts cite large addressable markets, strong volume trends, improving pricing, and refreshed models ahead of upcoming earnings as key reasons for their revised view.
Analysis Article Jun 20

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Stock Could Be 13% Undervalued After Split Plan And $300 Million Notes

Why Adaptive Biotechnologies Just Drew Fresh Attention Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) has moved into the spotlight after outlining plans to separate its Minimal Residual Disease and Immune Medicine businesses and completing a $300 million zero coupon convertible notes offering due 2031. Together, the planned business separation and new fixed income financing signal a meaningful shift in how Adaptive Biotechnologies funds its operations, manages capital and positions each segment for...
Narrative Update Jun 17

ADPT: MRD Profitability And Business Separation Will Support Future Cash Flows

The analyst price target for Adaptive Biotechnologies has been adjusted to reflect a mix of recent Street research, including a $3 cut from one firm and a $2 increase from another. Analysts point to updated expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions as key drivers of the revised outlook.
Narrative Update Jun 02

ADPT: MRD Adoption And Margin Discipline Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts now see Adaptive Biotechnologies' fair value per share at $20.14, a level supported by updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, alongside mixed recent Street research in which Morgan Stanley trimmed its price target by $3 while TD Cowen raised its target by $2. Analyst Commentary Recent research views on Adaptive Biotechnologies point to a mix of optimism and caution, which helps explain the updated fair value estimate of US$20.14 per share.
Narrative Update May 17

ADPT: 2026 MRD Execution And Margin Discipline Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts now see Adaptive Biotechnologies' fair value edging from $20.57 to $20.14, reflecting mixed price target revisions. One firm cut its target by $3, while another raised its target by $2, as they update assumptions around growth, margins, the discount rate and future P/E expectations.
Narrative Update May 01

ADPT: 2026 MRD Outlook And Margin Discipline Will Drive Future Upside Potential

The updated analyst price target for Adaptive Biotechnologies moves slightly lower to about $20.57 from $20.86. Analysts attribute this change to modest adjustments to fair value estimates, discount rate assumptions, and longer term profit margin and P/E expectations.
Narrative Update Apr 16

ADPT: MRD Revenue Outlook And Refreshed Models Will Support Future Cash Flows

Narrative Update on Adaptive Biotechnologies The consensus analyst price target for Adaptive Biotechnologies has moved up by $1, reflecting updated analyst models that incorporate adjusted discount rates, refreshed revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a revised, still very large forward P/E framework. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Adaptive Biotechnologies centers on modestly higher price targets, with several bullish analysts revising their models at roughly the same time.
Narrative Update Apr 02

ADPT: MRD 2026 Outlook And Discount Assumptions Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have raised their price targets on Adaptive Biotechnologies by about $1, reflecting updated views on discount rates, growth, margins, and future P/E assumptions. These changes keep the stock's fair value estimate effectively unchanged at around $21.
Narrative Update Mar 19

ADPT: MRD Outlook And Pfizer Agreements Will Support Future Cash Flows

Analysts have inched their average price targets on Adaptive Biotechnologies higher, often by about $1 increments. These changes reflect updated views that modestly adjust revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions while keeping the fair value estimate near $22.
Narrative Update Mar 04

ADPT: MRD And Pfizer Agreements Will Support Future Cash Flow Upside

The analyst price target for Adaptive Biotechnologies has shifted from $21.00 to $22.00. Analysts point to updated assumptions around growth, profitability, and long-term P/E expectations following a series of recent target increases across the Street.
Narrative Update Feb 18

ADPT: Pfizer Agreements And MRD Progress Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have nudged their average price target for Adaptive Biotechnologies higher by about $1, reflecting updated fair value assumptions and slightly revised views on growth, margins and future P/E, in line with recent target increases from several research firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates cluster around modest target increases and a generally supportive view of Adaptive Biotechnologies, with most of the focus on refreshed fair value work rather than sweeping changes to the thesis.
Narrative Update Feb 03

ADPT: Sector Tailwinds And Pfizer Partnerships Will Support Measured Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their price targets on Adaptive Biotechnologies slightly higher, with Street research pointing to target increases such as TD Cowen moving to $20 from $19. This contributes to a modest lift in our fair value estimate from $20.00 to about $20.14 as they highlight solid expected sector results and fundamentals.
Narrative Update Jan 20

ADPT: Sector Tailwinds And Cancer Testing Leadership Will Support Future Upside

Narrative Update: Adaptive Biotechnologies The analyst price target for Adaptive Biotechnologies has moved from $19 to $20, reflecting updated views that incorporate recent Q4 preview work on diagnostics peers, expectations for solid sector results and 2026 outlooks, and the company’s latest Q3 report. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Adaptive Biotechnologies has focused on updated price targets that reflect fresh sector work and the company’s latest Q3 report.
Narrative Update Jan 05

ADPT: MRD Platform And Pfizer Agreements Will Support Long-Term Cash Flow Upside

Analysts have lifted their price target on Adaptive Biotechnologies to $16 from $11, citing the recent Q3 report as the key driver behind this updated view. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to the new US$16 price target, up from US$11, as a sign that expectations for execution and risk reward have shifted in a more constructive direction after the recent Q3 report.
Narrative Update Dec 15

ADPT: MRD Leadership Will Drive Long-Term Cash Flow Upside

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Adaptive Biotechnologies from approximately $15 to $21 per share. They cite higher long term profit margin expectations and confidence in the company’s leadership in minimal residual disease cancer testing, even with moderating revenue growth assumptions and a higher discount rate.
Narrative Update Nov 30

ADPT: Future Revenue Will Be Sustained By Leadership In Cancer Testing

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Adaptive Biotechnologies to $19.57 from $19.14. They cite increased confidence in the company's sustained revenue growth and leadership position in cancer testing.
Narrative Update Nov 16

ADPT: Future Revenue Will Be Driven By Market Expansion In Blood Cancer Testing

Analysts have raised their price target for Adaptive Biotechnologies by $2.00 to $19.14, citing the company's leadership in minimal residual disease testing, as well as expectations for sustained revenue growth and improved margins. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst discussions reveal diverse perspectives on Adaptive Biotechnologies' position in the market and future prospects.
Narrative Update Nov 01

ADPT: Leadership In Cancer Testing Will Drive Market Expansion And Execution Risks

Analysts have increased their price target for Adaptive Biotechnologies from $16.00 to $17.14 per share. They cite continuing leadership in cancer testing and expectations for robust revenue growth, driven by market expansion and operational improvements.
Narrative Update Oct 18

EMR Integration And Partnerships Will Reshape Clinical Diagnostics

Analysts have raised their price target for Adaptive Biotechnologies from $14.86 to $16.00. They cite the company’s strong positioning in cancer testing and sustained revenue growth potential.
Analysis Article Oct 16

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's (NASDAQ:ADPT) 31% Jump Shows Its Popularity With Investors

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation ( NASDAQ:ADPT ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 31% gain in the...
Narrative Update Oct 04

EMR Integration And Partnerships Will Reshape Clinical Diagnostics

Analysts have increased their price target for Adaptive Biotechnologies from $14 to approximately $14.86 per share. They cite ongoing revenue growth momentum and strengthening leadership in the cancer diagnostics market as key drivers of the upward revision.
Analysis Article Sep 24

Is Adaptive Biotechnologies (NASDAQ:ADPT) Using Too Much Debt?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Analysis Article Aug 29

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's (NASDAQ:ADPT) P/S Is Still On The Mark Following 28% Share Price Bounce

Despite an already strong run, Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation ( NASDAQ:ADPT ) shares have been powering on, with...
Narrative Update Aug 07

EMR Integration And Partnerships Will Reshape Clinical Diagnostics

Despite a modest decline in consensus revenue growth forecasts and a slight increase in the discount rate, the consensus analyst price target for Adaptive Biotechnologies has been raised from $11.86 to $13.29. What's in the News Raised full year 2025 MRD business revenue guidance to $190–200 million from the prior $180–190 million range; no revenue guidance for Immune Medicine.
Analysis Article May 31

Market Participants Recognise Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's (NASDAQ:ADPT) Revenues Pushing Shares 29% Higher

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation ( NASDAQ:ADPT ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had...
Analysis Article May 07

Is Adaptive Biotechnologies (NASDAQ:ADPT) Using Debt In A Risky Way?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
Analysis Article Apr 10

Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's (NASDAQ:ADPT) 26% Share Price Surge

The Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation ( NASDAQ:ADPT ) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an...
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New Narrative Mar 25

ClonoSEQ And NovaSeq X Will Transform Clinical Testing Pipelines

Strategic partnerships and initiatives to raise test prices and efficiency are expected to drive substantial revenue and margin growth.
Analysis Article Feb 14

Market Participants Recognise Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's (NASDAQ:ADPT) Revenues Pushing Shares 40% Higher

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation ( NASDAQ:ADPT ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 40% gain in the...

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:ADPT - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2028439392415
12/31/2027359-2846118
12/31/2026293-86-5-688
6/30/2026308-64-24-21N/A
3/31/2026295-50-30-27N/A
12/31/2025277-59-49-46N/A
9/30/2025253-80-63-61N/A
6/30/2025205-121-83-80N/A
3/31/2025190-142-89-85N/A
12/31/2024179-159-99-95N/A
9/30/2024177-195-115-110N/A
6/30/2024169-213-137-129N/A
3/31/2024175-215-145-136N/A
12/31/2023170-225-167-156N/A
9/30/2023180-196-171-159N/A
6/30/2023190-191-170-155N/A
3/31/2023184-195-195-179N/A
12/31/2022185-200-200-184N/A
9/30/2022168-221-231-208N/A
6/30/2022160-232-241-209N/A
3/31/2022155-229-248-199N/A
12/31/2021154-207-254-193N/A
9/30/2021147-190-241-179N/A
6/30/2021133-171-234-182N/A
3/31/2021116-155-208-176N/A
12/31/202098-146-168-150N/A
9/30/202092-122-148-137N/A
6/30/202092-99-131-120N/A
3/31/202093-82N/A-105N/A
12/31/201985-70N/A205N/A
9/30/201978-62N/A227N/A
6/30/201969-56N/A245N/A
3/31/201959-53N/A252N/A
12/31/201856-46N/A-32N/A
12/31/201738-43N/A-35N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ADPT is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.7%).

Earnings vs Market: ADPT is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: ADPT is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ADPT's revenue (16.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ADPT's revenue (16.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ADPT's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (22.7%)


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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/08/06 04:23
End of Day Share Price 2026/08/06 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation is covered by 15 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Derik de BruinBofA Global Research
Mark MassaroBTIG
William BonelloCraig-Hallum Capital Group LLC