Eli Lilly Future Growth
Future criteria checks 4/6
Eli Lilly is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 16.7% and 12.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 16.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 50.2% in 3 years.
Key information
16.7%
Earnings growth rate
16.82%
EPS growth rate
| Pharmaceuticals earnings growth | 14.2% |
| Revenue growth rate | 12.4% |
| Future return on equity | 50.17% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 07 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 07
LLY: Obesity Pricing Pressure And Safety Headlines Will Shape Future Franchise Economics
Analysts have raised Eli Lilly's implied fair value from $883.99 to $899.73 after several firms increased their price targets by $1 to $50, citing confidence in the obesity and diabetes pipeline, Foundayo's regulatory progress, and clarifications around recent safety concerns. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Eli Lilly reflects a mix of enthusiasm around obesity and diabetes assets and a clearer, more cautious minority that is focused on how much optimism is already reflected in the stock.Seeking Alpha • Apr 30
Eli Lilly: Stellar Q1 Earnings Put Pharma In Class Of Its Own - It's Ok To Buy Today
Summary Eli Lilly (LLY) delivered stellar Q1 2026 revenues of $19.8bn (+56% YoY) and EPS of $8.26 (+170% YoY), raising full-year guidance to $83.5bn at the midpoint. Lilly's growth is powered by the GLP-1 drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro, which now comprise 65% of revenues, with tirzepatide franchise momentum expected to continue. Despite emerging competition and future patent expiries, LLY's aggressive R&D and targeted M&A position it for sustained leadership in obesity, diabetes, and pipeline innovation. LLY's operational outperformance justifies its premium valuation, and I expect further upside as revenue growth and strategic investments continue to compound. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 20
LLY: Obesity And Diabetes Platform Will Support Premium Positioning Beyond 2030
Analysts have slightly raised their average price targets on Eli Lilly in recent weeks, citing supportive trial updates in obesity and diabetes, favorable comparisons to competing GLP-1 therapies, and regulatory progress that they say supports high but unchanged fair value estimates of around $1,500. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Eli Lilly has been active, with a cluster of price target moves, rating changes, and product specific notes that give you a clearer sense of how professionals are framing the risk and reward.
Narrative Update • Apr 06
LLY: Oral GLP-1 Launch And Capacity Expansion Will Drive Future Obesity Upside
Analysts have nudged Eli Lilly's price target slightly higher by $1, reflecting updated views on obesity and diabetes franchises following recent Foundayo approval commentary and comparative GLP-1 data. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Eli Lilly clusters around obesity and diabetes, pricing dynamics in GLP-1 therapies, and the implications of new product approvals and trial readouts for long term growth and valuation.
New Narrative • Mar 25
Eli Lilly: A Pipeline-Driven Growth Story Trading 30% Below What the Business Is Actually Worth
Eli Lilly already runs one of the fastest-growing drug businesses on earth, and its most powerful drug is not even approved yet. WHERE THE STOCK SITS TODAY The current price is around $907 (25/03/2026).Narrative Update • Mar 23
LLY: Obesity And Diabetes Franchise Strength Will Support Premium Positioning
Analysts have raised their price target for Eli Lilly to $1,500, citing updated models that reflect slightly stronger assumed revenue growth, a marginally higher profit margin profile, and continued confidence in the obesity and diabetes franchises following recent trial data and supportive sell side research. Analyst Commentary Recent research highlights a split view on Eli Lilly, with some bullish analysts leaning into the obesity and diabetes opportunity set, while at least one more cautious voice questions how much growth is already reflected in the share price.Narrative Update • Mar 09
LLY: Obesity Drug Leadership And Pipeline Catalysts Will Sustain Premium Positioning
The updated analyst price target for Eli Lilly has increased to $1,490.52 from $1,429.89. Analysts highlight the obesity and GLP-1 franchise, premium valuations tied to weight loss leadership, and potential upside from pipeline and acquisition catalysts as key factors supporting this change.Narrative Update • Feb 23
LLY: GLP-1 Obesity Leadership Will Drive Future Cardiometabolic And M&A Upside
Eli Lilly's analyst price targets have shifted higher, with our fair value estimate moving from $1,093.22 to $1,211.21, as analysts point to sustained GLP-1 obesity leadership, premium valuation support, and an expanding cardiometabolic pipeline as key drivers of their updated views. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Eli Lilly clusters around a few clear themes, with bullish analysts focusing on obesity leadership, cardiometabolic breadth, and M&A, while more cautious voices watch valuation and execution risk around the pipeline.Narrative Update • Feb 08
LLY: Government Pricing Deals Will Compress Obesity Franchise Economics Going Forward
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Eli Lilly from US$770 to about US$884 per share, reflecting updated assumptions on long term obesity opportunities, recent price target increases across several firms, and steady expectations around margins and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary The latest batch of research on Eli Lilly revolves around its weight loss and cardiometabolic franchises, expectations for new product launches, and the implications of recent policy developments on pricing and access.Analysis Article • Feb 07
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) Just Released Its Yearly Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think
Investors in Eli Lilly and Company ( NYSE:LLY ) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.0% to close at US$1,058 following...Narrative Update • Jan 25
LLY: Government GLP 1 Pricing Deals Will Pressure Obesity Margins
Analysts have nudged their price targets on Eli Lilly slightly higher, citing continued confidence in the obesity and GLP 1 franchise, supportive government pricing agreements, and potential upside from acquisitions and pipeline catalysts, even as some firms fine tune their models and individual targets by low single digit amounts such as Guggenheim's recent US$2 trim. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Eli Lilly has been dominated by optimism around obesity treatments and government pricing agreements, but there is also a pocket of caution that is worth paying attention to if you are thinking about valuation, execution and long term growth risk.Narrative Update • Jan 11
LLY: GLP-1 Pricing Deals Will Pressure Obesity Margins Going Forward
Analysts lifted their fair value estimate for Eli Lilly from US$650 to US$770, citing higher assumed profit margins, a slightly higher discount rate, updated expectations for revenue growth and future P/E, and continued Street support related to the obesity franchise, GLP-1 pricing agreements, and pipeline catalysts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Eli Lilly has been dominated by views on obesity drugs, pricing agreements with the U.S. government, and the company’s expanding pipeline.Narrative Update • Dec 27
LLY: GLP-1 Pricing Deals And Policy Will Shape Future Obesity Leadership And Risks
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Eli Lilly to approximately $1,093 from about $1,024, reflecting expectations for stronger long term GLP 1 driven revenue growth, expanding profit margins and sustained leadership in the obesity market, supported by recent U.S. reimbursement and pricing deals. Analyst Commentary Street research remains broadly constructive on Eli Lilly, with a series of upward price target revisions and fresh coverage initiations underscoring confidence in the durability of its GLP 1 franchise and broader innovation pipeline.Narrative Update • Dec 13
LLY: Government Access Deals Will Drive Durable Obesity And Diabetes Leadership
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Eli Lilly shares from approximately $1,170 to about $1,430 per share, reflecting higher expected profitability and sustained leadership in the GLP 1 obesity and diabetes market, supported by recent U.S. government access deals and upcoming launches such as orforglipron. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts continue to frame Eli Lilly as a core beneficiary of the expanding obesity and diabetes treatment market, with valuation upside tied to both higher GLP 1 penetration and a broadening metabolic pipeline.Narrative Update • Nov 29
LLY: Upcoming Price Discounts And Policy Decisions Will Influence Drug Market Leadership And Risks
Eli Lilly's analyst price target has increased by approximately $21 to $1,024. Analysts cite earnings upside, expanding obesity drug opportunities, and recently announced government reimbursement agreements as key drivers of improved growth and profitability expectations.Analysis Article • Nov 25
Investors Appear Satisfied With Eli Lilly and Company's (NYSE:LLY) Prospects As Shares Rocket 30%
Despite an already strong run, Eli Lilly and Company ( NYSE:LLY ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 30% in...
Narrative Update • Nov 21
GLP-1 drugs part of medicare
Short update, this is more bullish news about the demand for GLP-1 drugs in general spurring growth in this type of weight loss drug. Also, earnings report have showed that increase in earnings have been driven by increase in volume of GLP-1 drugs.Narrative Update • Nov 15
LLY: Upcoming Drug Price Reductions and Policy Debates Will Shape Future Opportunities and Risks
The analyst price target for Eli Lilly has increased by over $80 to approximately $1,003 per share. Analysts point to accelerating revenue growth, higher profit margins, and ongoing strength in the company's obesity drug franchise as drivers of greater long-term value.Analysis Article • Nov 07
Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) Posted Healthy Earnings But There Are Some Other Factors To Be Aware Of
Eli Lilly and Company's ( NYSE:LLY ) stock was strong after they recently reported robust earnings. However, we think...Narrative Update • Nov 01
LLY: Upcoming Drug Launches And Global Expansion Will Shape Future Outlook
Eli Lilly’s fair value estimate has increased from $891.62 to $919.33. This reflects analysts' upward price target revisions following stronger than expected quarterly results and an improved earnings outlook.New Narrative • Sep 19
Eli Lilly's Future Growth Driven by Tirzepatide and Favorable Market Conditions
Catalysts Mounjaro/Zepbound: Lilly’s tirzepatide franchise is the engine of growth. Mounjaro (for type 2 diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity) each grew rapidly in 2024.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 109,955 | 44,647 | 34,923 | 45,246 | 23 |
| 12/31/2027 | 97,089 | 37,541 | 28,599 | 39,443 | 27 |
| 12/31/2026 | 84,434 | 30,785 | 20,523 | 31,669 | 26 |
| 3/31/2026 | 72,249 | 25,277 | 10,586 | 20,480 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 65,179 | 20,640 | 6,182 | 16,813 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 59,421 | 18,412 | 7,037 | 16,063 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 53,259 | 13,800 | 550 | 10,939 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 49,004 | 11,106 | -669 | 9,318 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 45,043 | 10,590 | 1,015 | 8,818 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 40,863 | 8,370 | -2,275 | 6,032 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 38,923 | 7,342 | -2,024 | 4,510 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 35,932 | 6,138 | -2,292 | 3,676 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 34,124 | 5,240 | -1,548 | 4,240 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 32,073 | 4,988 | 1,469 | 6,215 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 29,516 | 6,498 | 3,307 | 6,242 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 27,691 | 5,687 | 3,881 | 6,793 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 28,541 | 6,245 | 4,696 | 7,586 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 29,240 | 6,033 | 5,404 | 8,080 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 29,071 | 5,692 | 4,950 | 7,494 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 29,323 | 6,129 | 5,824 | 8,086 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 28,318 | 5,582 | 5,604 | 7,366 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 27,759 | 5,972 | 4,621 | 6,919 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 26,726 | 6,071 | 4,837 | 7,095 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 25,486 | 6,093 | 5,565 | 7,815 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 24,540 | 6,194 | 4,471 | 6,500 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 23,214 | 5,573 | 5,112 | 6,648 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 22,950 | 5,618 | 4,890 | 6,352 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 23,087 | 5,533 | 3,684 | 4,908 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 22,320 | 4,638 | N/A | 4,837 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 21,843 | 4,264 | N/A | 4,322 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 21,673 | 4,103 | N/A | 4,933 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 21,622 | 2,545 | N/A | 5,399 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 21,493 | 3,151 | N/A | 5,525 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 22,016 | 372 | N/A | 5,819 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 22,368 | -166 | N/A | 5,579 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 22,607 | 1,074 | N/A | 5,712 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 19,974 | -86 | N/A | 5,616 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 22,471 | 2,225 | N/A | 5,879 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 22,005 | 2,447 | N/A | 5,659 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 21,585 | 2,187 | N/A | 5,410 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 21,222 | 2,738 | N/A | 4,851 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 20,837 | 2,444 | N/A | 3,841 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 20,605 | 2,466 | N/A | 3,284 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 20,179 | 2,319 | N/A | 2,830 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 19,959 | 2,408 | N/A | 2,965 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 19,704 | 2,359 | N/A | 3,318 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 19,620 | 2,059 | N/A | 3,905 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: LLY's forecast earnings growth (16.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: LLY's earnings (16.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.6% per year).
High Growth Earnings: LLY's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: LLY's revenue (12.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.5% per year).
High Growth Revenue: LLY's revenue (12.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: LLY's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (50.2%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 13:16 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Eli Lilly and Company is covered by 53 analysts. 27 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Toung | Argus Research Company |
| Emily Field | Barclays |
| Kerry Holford | Berenberg |