Semtech Future Growth
Future criteria checks 6/6
Semtech is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 47.7% and 29% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 46% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 41.3% in 3 years.
Key information
47.7%
Earnings growth rate
45.96%
EPS growth rate
| Semiconductor earnings growth | 30.5% |
| Revenue growth rate | 29.0% |
| Future return on equity | 41.28% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 09 Sep 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Sep 04
SMTC: Data Center And LoRa Momentum Will Drive Future Earnings Power
Analysts have increased their price target framework for Semtech, raising their estimate of fair value from about $230 to roughly $272 per share. They attribute this change to stronger data center growth expectations, expanded LoRa contributions, and the potential for higher long term margins highlighted in recent research updates.Seeking Alpha • Aug 26
Semtech Q2: Accelerating Growth In Data Centers Will Keep Sending Shares Higher
Summary Semtech delivered a strong quarter with 32.7% y/y revenue growth and a double beat on both revenue and EPS. SMTC's data center segment, fueled by AI infrastructure demand, drove 91% y/y growth and is expected to remain the primary revenue engine. Guidance for next quarter implies 20% sequential and 54% y/y revenue growth, with management projecting accelerating momentum into fiscal 2028. Despite robust fundamentals and outlook, I recommend holding rather than adding at current price levels given the recent 150% share price appreciation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Aug 21
SMTC: AI Data Center Cycle Will Drive Future Connectivity Upside
Analysts have reset the fair value estimate for Semtech to about $160.74 from $175, even as they highlight stronger assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and data center driven earnings potential behind higher Street price targets. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Semtech highlights a wide range of views on how sustainable the current data center and connectivity story may be.Narrative Update • Jul 17
SMTC: Faster AI Data Center Demand Will Drive Future Earnings Power
Analysts have raised the fair value estimate for Semtech’s stock from $110.47 to $230.00, citing stronger long-term data center demand assumptions, higher expected revenue growth, and an outlook supported by multiple firms increasing their price targets following recent Q1 results and guidance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are broadly supportive of Semtech after recent Q1 results, with a series of higher price targets pointing to rising confidence in the company’s ability to execute on its data center and connectivity roadmap.Narrative Update • Jul 03
SMTC: AI Data Center Demand Will Drive Future Optical Connectivity Upside
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Semtech to $175 from $74, citing a broad wave of higher Street price targets tied to stronger AI and data center demand assumptions, as well as updated expectations for the company’s growth profile and valuation multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Semtech highlights broad enthusiasm around its exposure to AI data center spending, but not every voice is uniformly positive.
Narrative Update • Jun 18
SMTC: AI Data Center Ramps Will Drive Future Execution Test
Analysts have raised their price targets on Semtech stock to a range of $175 to $230, citing stronger than expected Q1 results, a Q2 outlook above prior expectations, and a materially faster ramp in AI driven data center demand, along with expanding LoRa and high speed connectivity opportunities. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Semtech stock points to a wide range of updated price targets and views that center on data center exposure, AI related products and the outlook for LoRa and other connectivity businesses.Narrative Update • Jun 03
SMTC: Accelerating AI Data Center Demand Will Drive Future Execution Test
Analysts have lifted the Semtech fair value estimate from about $105.54 to roughly $204.83, citing stronger modeled revenue growth, higher profit margins, and a lower future P/E assumption. This view is supported by recent research that points to accelerating AI data center demand, expanding LoRa opportunities, and potential margin gains from portfolio simplification and higher speed optical and copper solutions.Narrative Update • May 08
SMTC: Elevated AI Data Center Hopes Will Likely Strain Future Execution
Analysts have lifted their average price targets on Semtech by $7 to $115, pointing to stronger expectations around data center and AI related demand, the ramp of LPO, TIA and ACC products, and benefits from the HieFo acquisition and recent Q4 results. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a cluster of higher price targets for Semtech after its Q4 report, AI related commentary and the HieFo acquisition.Narrative Update • Apr 22
SMTC: AI Data Center Connectivity And LoRa Outlook May Support Margin Recovery
The updated analyst price target for Semtech edges up to about $106, with analysts pointing to a series of higher Street targets linked to stronger AI driven data center demand, new LPO and ACC product ramps, and the recently completed HieFo acquisition. Analyst Commentary Street research has clustered around higher valuation marks for Semtech, with many firms lifting price targets following recent quarterly results, an updated outlook, and the completion of the HieFo acquisition.Narrative Update • Apr 06
SMTC: AI Optical Connectivity Ramps Will Support Future Margin Recovery
Analysts have lifted their average price targets for Semtech by $10 to $115, citing stronger data center exposure, early traction in LPO and ACC shipments, and an emerging AI driven demand story across optical connectivity. Analyst Commentary Street research is broadly constructive on Semtech, with multiple firms lifting price targets and pointing to data center strength, AI linked optical demand, and portfolio moves such as the HieFo acquisition as key support for higher valuations.Narrative Update • Mar 23
SMTC: AI Data Center Demand Will Drive Future Margin Recovery
Analysts have lifted the Semtech fair value estimate from about $90 to around $105, reflecting updated models that factor in higher expected data center contributions, AI related demand, and recent price target increases across multiple research firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research notes paint a largely constructive picture for Semtech, with a cluster of higher price targets tied to data center exposure, AI related demand, and the integration of recent acquisitions.New Narrative • Mar 13
Heavy Reliance On AI Data Centers Will Limit Long-Term Upside
Catalysts About Semtech Semtech supplies analog and mixed signal semiconductors and IoT systems used in data centers, communications, industrial IoT and sensing applications. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 08
SMTC: Data Center And AI Demand Will Support Balanced Margin Recovery
Narrative Update on Semtech Analysts have lifted their blended price targets on Semtech by about $7 per share, citing higher fair value estimates tied to data center strength, AI related demand, and the recently completed HieFo acquisition, even as they factor in a slightly higher discount rate and a richer future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Semtech highlight a cluster of higher price targets and a focus on data center, AI and optical opportunities following the HieFo acquisition.New Narrative • Feb 27
Long-Term AI Data Center And IoT Tailwinds Will Transform This Semiconductor Provider
Catalysts About Semtech Semtech designs and sells analog and mixed signal semiconductors and IoT systems used in data centers, industrial IoT and high end consumer devices. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Feb 22
SMTC: Data Center And LoRa Strength Will Support Focused Margin Recovery
Narrative Update on Semtech The updated analyst price targets for Semtech, which now reflect increases such as B. Riley moving to $91 from $90 and Roth Capital to $77 from $65, indicate that analysts are reacting to recent Q3 upside, stronger Data Center and LoRa trends, and planned divestitures of non core assets that they expect will sharpen the company’s operational focus.Narrative Update • Feb 07
SMTC: Data Center And LoRa Momentum Will Support Balanced Margin Story
Narrative Update on Semtech Analysts have raised their price targets on Semtech by up to about $15, citing Q3 upside driven by Data Center and LoRa strength, Q4 guidance above consensus, and expectations that divesting non core assets could support margins near 60% gross and about 25% EBITDA. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Semtech highlights a mix of optimism around growth drivers and margin potential, alongside some caution on near term earnings quality and product mix.Narrative Update • Jan 21
SMTC: Data Center And LoRa Progress Will Drive Fairly Balanced Outlook
Narrative Update on Semtech Analysts have nudged their price targets on Semtech higher, with the implied fair value estimate rising by about US$1.43 per share. They point to Q3 upside in Data Center and LoRa, expectations for a stronger Q4 on better DC capex and transceiver orders, and benefits from divesting non core assets, despite some mix driven margin pressure.Narrative Update • Jan 07
SMTC: Data Center And LoRa Execution Will Shape Fairly Valued Outlook
Narrative Update on Semtech Analysts have lifted Semtech's price targets into a roughly US$77 to US$91 range, citing recent Q3 upside in Data Center and LoRa, expectations for stronger data center capital expenditure that could drive transceiver orders, and an emphasis on higher margin operations with about 60% gross margins and roughly 25% EBITDA margins. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Semtech points to a generally constructive view after the Q3 report, but with some clear areas of caution that matter for valuation and execution risk.Narrative Update • Dec 15
SMTC: Future Upside Will Depend On Expanding Data Center Demand
Analysts have raised their price target on Semtech to approximately $82 from about $80, citing Q3 earnings upside, strengthening data center and LoRa momentum, expected upside from accelerating transceiver orders, and operational streamlining through divestiture of non core assets. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates reflect a broadly constructive stance on Semtech, with multiple upward revisions to price targets clustered in the mid to high $70s and low $90s, reinforcing the view that the stock remains levered to a multi year growth recovery across data center, smartphone, and IoT end markets.Narrative Update • Nov 29
SMTC: Future Momentum Will Hinge On Data Center And Margin Resilience
Semtech's analyst price target has been raised from approximately $72 to over $80 per share. This reflects increased confidence in the company's margin improvements, sustained growth in key segments, and a positive operational outlook from recent quarterly results, according to analysts.Narrative Update • Nov 15
SMTC: Future Sector Momentum And Execution Risks Will Define Performance
Semtech's analyst price target has been raised significantly, from $57 to $80. Analysts cite positive management discussions and recent increases in comparable market multiples as reasons supporting a more optimistic outlook for the company's growth.Narrative Update • Nov 01
SMTC: Future Upside Will Rely On Data Center AI And LoRa Adoption
Semtech's analyst price target has been raised notably, increasing from $57 to $80. Analysts cite recent management discussions and improved industry multiples as key factors in their updated outlook.Narrative Update • Oct 17
Hyperscale Data Centers And LoRa Will Expand Future Markets
Semtech's analyst fair value price target has increased by approximately $2.86 to $70.43 per share. Analysts cite management meetings, exposure to growth markets, and higher sector multiples as key factors driving the update.Narrative Update • Oct 03
Hyperscale Data Centers And LoRa Will Expand Future Markets
Semtech's analyst price target has been raised from $63.25 to approximately $67.57 per share. Analysts cite recent discussions with management and expansion in high-growth markets as key factors supporting the increase.Analysis Article • Sep 16
Semtech Corporation's (NASDAQ:SMTC) 26% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues
Semtech Corporation ( NASDAQ:SMTC ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month...Narrative Update • Aug 27
Portfolio Optimization And CopperEdge Adoption Will Shape Future Success
Semtech’s consensus price target has increased to $63.25, driven by strong positioning in the AI data center market, an earnings and guidance beat, upward revisions to revenue and EPS forecasts, and solid execution, reflecting higher analyst conviction in its growth outlook. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite strong positioning in the AI data center market, particularly with fiber, ACC (Active Copper Cable), and impending product ramps such as LPO/TIA and Nvidia's Rubin launch.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/31/2029 | 2,517 | 716 | 704 | 734 | 8 |
| 1/31/2028 | 1,921 | 470 | 628 | 635 | 14 |
| 1/31/2027 | 1,487 | 361 | 181 | 205 | 14 |
| 7/26/2026 | 1,174 | 154 | 184 | 214 | N/A |
| 4/26/2026 | 1,090 | -33 | 162 | 190 | N/A |
| 1/25/2026 | 1,050 | -40 | 165 | 181 | N/A |
| 10/26/2025 | 1,027 | 29 | 137 | 153 | N/A |
| 7/27/2025 | 996 | 24 | 124 | 135 | N/A |
| 4/27/2025 | 954 | -119 | 72 | 86 | N/A |
| 1/26/2025 | 909 | -162 | 44 | 58 | N/A |
| 10/27/2024 | 851 | -843 | 24 | 38 | N/A |
| 7/28/2024 | 815 | -874 | -17 | 3 | N/A |
| 4/28/2024 | 838 | -1,086 | -24 | -4 | N/A |
| 1/28/2024 | 869 | -1,092 | -125 | -94 | N/A |
| 10/29/2023 | 843 | -501 | -161 | -127 | N/A |
| 7/30/2023 | 820 | -440 | -137 | -103 | N/A |
| 4/30/2023 | 791 | -6 | -47 | -13 | N/A |
| 1/29/2023 | 757 | 61 | 98 | 127 | N/A |
| 10/30/2022 | 780 | 147 | 166 | 196 | N/A |
| 7/31/2022 | 797 | 159 | 216 | 245 | N/A |
| 5/1/2022 | 773 | 140 | 192 | 221 | N/A |
| 1/30/2022 | 741 | 126 | 177 | 203 | N/A |
| 10/31/2021 | 715 | 107 | 150 | 179 | N/A |
| 8/1/2021 | 674 | 91 | 110 | 141 | N/A |
| 5/2/2021 | 633 | 74 | 95 | 125 | N/A |
| 1/31/2021 | 595 | 60 | 86 | 119 | N/A |
| 10/25/2020 | 568 | 47 | 112 | 137 | N/A |
| 7/26/2020 | 555 | 43 | 121 | 142 | N/A |
| 4/26/2020 | 549 | 29 | N/A | 138 | N/A |
| 1/26/2020 | 548 | 32 | N/A | 119 | N/A |
| 10/27/2019 | 570 | 49 | N/A | 121 | N/A |
| 7/28/2019 | 602 | 47 | N/A | 139 | N/A |
| 4/28/2019 | 628 | 70 | N/A | 155 | N/A |
| 1/27/2019 | 627 | 70 | N/A | 184 | N/A |
| 10/28/2018 | 608 | 48 | N/A | 175 | N/A |
| 7/29/2018 | 585 | 50 | N/A | 150 | N/A |
| 4/29/2018 | 574 | 37 | N/A | 136 | N/A |
| 1/28/2018 | 588 | 35 | N/A | 111 | N/A |
| 10/29/2017 | 587 | 46 | N/A | 106 | N/A |
| 7/30/2017 | 574 | 63 | N/A | 118 | N/A |
| 4/30/2017 | 557 | 60 | N/A | 114 | N/A |
| 1/29/2017 | 544 | 55 | N/A | 118 | N/A |
| 10/30/2016 | 523 | 48 | N/A | 119 | N/A |
| 7/31/2016 | 501 | 28 | N/A | 99 | N/A |
| 5/1/2016 | 491 | 19 | N/A | 101 | N/A |
| 1/31/2016 | 490 | 11 | N/A | 102 | N/A |
| 10/25/2015 | 502 | -5 | N/A | 79 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: SMTC's forecast earnings growth (47.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.7%).
Earnings vs Market: SMTC's earnings (47.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (17.2% per year).
High Growth Earnings: SMTC's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: SMTC's revenue (29% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: SMTC's revenue (29% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: SMTC's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (41.3%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/14 07:45 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/11 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/07/26 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/01/25 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Semtech Corporation is covered by 24 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Tristan Gerra | Baird |
| Sumit Dhanda | BofA Global Research |
| Craig Ellis | B. Riley Securities, Inc. |