SPS Commerce Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
SPS Commerce is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 15.7% and 6.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 15.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16.9% in 3 years.
Key information
15.7%
Earnings growth rate
15.36%
EPS growth rate
| Software earnings growth | 18.7% |
| Revenue growth rate | 6.9% |
| Future return on equity | 16.93% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 17 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
SPS Commerce, Inc. Just Recorded A 5.8% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
Feb 15
Results: SPS Commerce, Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts
Apr 28Recent updates
SPSC: Activist Sale Pressure Will Reframe Sentiment Despite Softer Guidance
Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on SPS Commerce, with several firms cutting estimates by $5 to $30 after Q4 revenue came in at the low end of guidance and the FY26 revenue outlook was set at 6% to 7% year over year, compared with a prior 7% to 8% range, reflecting ongoing headwinds in the business. Analyst Commentary Recent research on SPS Commerce has centered on the softer Q4 revenue outcome and the recalibrated FY26 revenue outlook of 6% to 7% year over year, which came in below the prior 7% to 8% range.
SPSC: Share Repurchases And Potential Sale Will Support Future Returns
Analysts have trimmed their blended price target on SPS Commerce by $0 overall, reflecting recent target cuts from several firms after Q4 revenue landed at the low end of guidance and the FY26 revenue growth outlook of 6% to 7% came in below the prior 7% to 8% range. Key model inputs such as fair value, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions remain essentially unchanged.SPSC: Activist Sale Pressure And AI Rollout Will Reframe Sentiment
Analysts have trimmed their blended price target on SPS Commerce by aligning with recent cuts to around $95, reflecting Q4 revenue at the low end of guidance and a FY26 revenue outlook of 6% to 7%, which sits below prior expectations as headwinds persist. Analyst Commentary Even with a reset in expectations around Q4 and the FY26 outlook, some bullish analysts still see room for SPS Commerce to execute on its long term model.SPSC: Activist Sale Push And AI Suite Will Reset Sentiment
We are lowering our fair value estimate for SPS Commerce to $110 from $125, reflecting analysts' reduced price targets after Q4 revenue landed at the low end of guidance and FY26 revenue growth guidance of 6% to 7% came in below prior expectations. Analyst Commentary Street research after the Q4 print has generally reset expectations lower for SPS Commerce, with several cuts to price targets and at least one downgrade to a more cautious rating.SPSC: Share Repurchases Will Support Returns As FY26 Headwinds Ease
Our updated narrative on SPS Commerce reflects a lower fair value estimate, moving from about $99.82 to $82.09. This is in line with recent analyst price target cuts that cite softer revenue trends, a more conservative 6% to 7% FY26 growth guide, and a reset to a lower future P/E assumption despite slightly higher projected profit margins.SPS Commerce, Inc. Just Recorded A 5.8% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
Feb 15More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For SPS Commerce, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SPSC) Shares After Tumbling 26%
Feb 12SPSC: Activist Sale Pressure And New Capabilities Will Support Sentiment Reset
Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for SPS Commerce at $125.00. Modest adjustments to assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E help explain the updated price target narrative.SPSC: Share Repurchases And New Products Will Offset Forecasting Setbacks
Analysts now see fair value for SPS Commerce at about US$99.82 per share, up from roughly US$98, as they factor in a slightly lower discount rate, steady revenue growth and margins, and a modestly higher future P/E, despite recent price target cuts tied to softer near term growth expectations and the Q3 revenue miss. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around SPS Commerce points to a more cautious stance overall, with several firms cutting ratings and reducing price targets after the Q3 revenue miss and updated guidance.SPSC: Share Repurchases And Product Expansion Will Support Sentiment Reset
Analysts have reset expectations on SPS Commerce, with published price targets moving from a prior range of around $125 to a band of roughly $80 to $110. This shift reflects concerns about constrained near term growth, Q3 revenue shortfalls, and softer guidance.SPSC: Share Repurchases Will Support Confidence After Growth Expectations Reset
Analysts have reset their outlook on SPS Commerce, cutting the price target from $230 to $125 as they factor in slower expected revenue growth, a higher discount rate and lower peer multiples, even as profit margins are modeled to improve. Analyst Commentary Recent research has highlighted a more cautious overall stance on SPS Commerce, with multiple firms lowering ratings and price targets in response to softer growth expectations and a weaker retail spending backdrop.SPS Commerce: Finally About To See Some Fundamental Support
Dec 17SPSC: Share Repurchases And Durable Cash Flows Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have sharply reduced their price targets on SPS Commerce to a range of $80 to $110 from prior levels as high as $170, citing constrained near term growth, a weaker retail end market, and tempered long term growth expectations despite the company’s still solid fundamentals. Analyst Commentary Street research reflects a more balanced but cautious stance on SPS Commerce, with recent notes highlighting both the durability of the business model and the near term pressures on growth, execution, and valuation.Returns On Capital At SPS Commerce (NASDAQ:SPSC) Have Stalled
Dec 09SPSC: Share Buybacks And Cash Flow Will Drive Further Upside
Analysts have lowered their average price target for SPS Commerce. Reductions from firms such as Morgan Stanley, Needham, DA Davidson, and Cantor Fitzgerald cite weaker near-term growth prospects and the impact of a disappointing Q3 revenue performance.SPSC: Share Buybacks And Cash Flow Will Support Investor Confidence
Analysts have significantly reduced their price targets for SPS Commerce, lowering the fair value estimate from $142.27 to $98.00. They cite constrained near-term growth and ongoing headwinds in the retail end market as reasons for the adjustment.Recurring Revenue And Market Position Will Drive Potential Upside Into Year End
Analysts have recently reduced their price targets for SPS Commerce. New estimates generally fall in the $125 to $145 range, citing lower peer multiples and expectations for more moderate medium-term growth.Cloud-based EDI And Omni-Channel Analytics Will Strengthen Retail Supply Chains
Analysts have lowered their average price target on SPS Commerce by approximately $5.55. This adjustment reflects reduced peer multiples and slightly moderated growth expectations following recent earnings and investor updates.Cloud-based EDI And Omni-Channel Analytics Will Strengthen Retail Supply Chains
Analysts have trimmed their price targets for SPS Commerce to $147.82, citing the company’s transition to a more mature growth phase with tempered expectations and reduced upside catalysts, despite ongoing business model strength. Analyst Commentary SPS Commerce is perceived to have entered a more mature growth phase, prompting lower growth expectations.Calculating The Fair Value Of SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC)
Jul 21SPS Commerce's (NASDAQ:SPSC) Returns Have Hit A Wall
Jul 03Earnings Tell The Story For SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC)
Jun 15Results: SPS Commerce, Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts
Apr 28If EPS Growth Is Important To You, SPS Commerce (NASDAQ:SPSC) Presents An Opportunity
Apr 25A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC)
Apr 10SPS Commerce: Interesting TAM Expansion And Appears Undervalued
Mar 25Returns On Capital At SPS Commerce (NASDAQ:SPSC) Have Stalled
Mar 25Why We're Not Concerned Yet About SPS Commerce, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SPSC) 27% Share Price Plunge
Mar 07Is SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC) Potentially Undervalued?
Mar 04SPS Commerce's (NASDAQ:SPSC) Earnings Seem To Be Promising
Feb 17SPS Commerce, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SPSC) Price Is Out Of Tune With Revenues
Jan 16SPS Commerce: Continued Dealmaking Adds To The Growth Path
Jan 04Estimating The Fair Value Of SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC)
Jan 02Is Now The Time To Put SPS Commerce (NASDAQ:SPSC) On Your Watchlist?
Dec 05Is SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC) Potentially Undervalued?
Nov 08SPS Commerce (NASDAQ:SPSC) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital
Oct 16SPS Commerce, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SPSC) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up
Sep 28
Critical Expansion And Advanced Technologies Propel Retail Supply Chain Leader To New Heights
Strategic acquisitions and expansion into supply chain optimization position SPS Commerce for revenue growth through upselling and leveraging retailer relationships.SPS Commerce (NASDAQ:SPSC) Ticks All The Boxes When It Comes To Earnings Growth
Aug 23SPS Commerce Beats Q2 Estimates, But Revenue Growth Is A Concern
Jul 30Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 929 | 150 | 228 | 259 | 4 |
| 12/31/2027 | 860 | 122 | 210 | 244 | 9 |
| 12/31/2026 | 802 | 98 | 183 | 223 | 12 |
| 12/31/2025 | 752 | 93 | 152 | 179 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 730 | 85 | 148 | 173 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 704 | 83 | 142 | 166 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 670 | 81 | 141 | 163 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 638 | 77 | 137 | 157 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 612 | 79 | 131 | 150 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 584 | 72 | 122 | 140 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 561 | 69 | 127 | 145 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 537 | 66 | 113 | 132 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 514 | 63 | 102 | 123 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 493 | 62 | 97 | 119 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 472 | 58 | 97 | 117 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 451 | 55 | 80 | 100 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 432 | 52 | 90 | 108 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 415 | 48 | 76 | 95 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 400 | 47 | 75 | 96 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 385 | 45 | 93 | 113 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 366 | 45 | 84 | 105 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 347 | 45 | 90 | 106 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 329 | 46 | 80 | 96 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 313 | 46 | 72 | 89 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 302 | 41 | 70 | 86 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 293 | 39 | 62 | 79 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 286 | 36 | 62 | 76 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 279 | 34 | 58 | 72 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 272 | 32 | N/A | 68 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 264 | 31 | N/A | 62 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 256 | 27 | N/A | 56 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 248 | 24 | N/A | 55 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 241 | 10 | N/A | 47 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 234 | 4 | N/A | 35 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 227 | 1 | N/A | 30 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 220 | 0 | N/A | 31 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 213 | 9 | N/A | 30 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 206 | 9 | N/A | 28 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 200 | 8 | N/A | 22 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 193 | 5 | N/A | 19 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 185 | 6 | N/A | 18 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 176 | 5 | N/A | 21 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 167 | 5 | N/A | 18 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 159 | 5 | N/A | 14 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 152 | 3 | N/A | 12 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 144 | 3 | N/A | 12 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: SPSC's forecast earnings growth (15.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).
Earnings vs Market: SPSC's earnings (15.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.1% per year).
High Growth Earnings: SPSC's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: SPSC's revenue (6.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11% per year).
High Growth Revenue: SPSC's revenue (6.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: SPSC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.9%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/04/30 06:40 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/04/30 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
SPS Commerce, Inc. is covered by 20 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Joseph Vruwink | Baird |
| Jeffrey Houston | Barrington Research Associates, Inc. |
| Mark Schappel | Benchmark Company |