BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) Stock Overview
Provides artificial intelligence-powered decision intelligence solutions for national security, supply chain management, and digital identity markets. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 1/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
BBAI Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$4.02 |
| 52 Week High | US$9.39 |
| 52 Week Low | US$3.01 |
| Beta | 3.08 |
| 1 Month Change | -6.94% |
| 3 Month Change | -0.25% |
| 1 Year Change | 7.77% |
| 3 Year Change | 75.55% |
| 5 Year Change | -59.06% |
| Change since IPO | -59.10% |
Recent News & Updates
Seeking Alpha • Jun 02
BigBear.ai: Flat Growth Doesn't Justify A Premium Valuation
Summary BigBear.ai is rated Sell with a $3.76 price target, as current valuation appears disconnected from fundamentals. Revenue remained flat at $34.4M despite the Ask Sage acquisition, signaling weak organic growth and ongoing demand challenges. Gross margin improved to 34% due to higher-margin GenAI products, but SG&A expenses and widening losses overshadow profitability gains. BBAI faces intense competition from established defense AI players and has nearly doubled its share count to bolster cash, raising dilution concerns. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 01
BBAI: Federal Contract Backlog And AI Margin Shift Will Test Patience
BigBear.ai Holdings' consensus analyst price target has shifted lower into the $5 range, as analysts factor in reduced sales estimates; a cut in individual targets from $8 to $6 and from $6 to $5; and updated expectations around future revenue growth, profit margins, and P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research notes highlight that bearish analysts are trimming price targets into the US$5 to US$6 range following the latest quarterly results and updated guidance.Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Jun 02
BigBear.ai: Flat Growth Doesn't Justify A Premium Valuation
Summary BigBear.ai is rated Sell with a $3.76 price target, as current valuation appears disconnected from fundamentals. Revenue remained flat at $34.4M despite the Ask Sage acquisition, signaling weak organic growth and ongoing demand challenges. Gross margin improved to 34% due to higher-margin GenAI products, but SG&A expenses and widening losses overshadow profitability gains. BBAI faces intense competition from established defense AI players and has nearly doubled its share count to bolster cash, raising dilution concerns. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jun 01
BBAI: Federal Contract Backlog And AI Margin Shift Will Test Patience
BigBear.ai Holdings' consensus analyst price target has shifted lower into the $5 range, as analysts factor in reduced sales estimates; a cut in individual targets from $8 to $6 and from $6 to $5; and updated expectations around future revenue growth, profit margins, and P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research notes highlight that bearish analysts are trimming price targets into the US$5 to US$6 range following the latest quarterly results and updated guidance.
Narrative Update • May 03
BBAI: Balance Sheet Flexibility And Acquisition Integration Will Support Revenue Guidance Execution
Narrative Update on BigBear.ai Holdings Analysts have trimmed their average price expectations for BigBear.ai, reflecting cuts in individual targets such as $8 to $6 and $6 to $5, as they balance weaker recent revenue trends with company guidance that includes contributions from the Ask Sage acquisition and a stronger balance sheet. Analyst Commentary Recent research reflects a mixed tone on BigBear.ai, with price targets moving lower but commentary highlighting several constructive points around execution, balance sheet positioning, and future growth plans.Narrative Update • Apr 19
BBAI: Federal Contract Recovery Will Support Medium Term Revenue Guidance Execution
Analysts have reduced their average price target on BigBear.ai Holdings by $1 to around $6, reflecting lower sales estimates and updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations following the latest Q4 report and FY26 guidance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are balancing reduced price targets with a focus on execution, balance sheet progress, and the medium term growth profile implied by management guidance.
Narrative Update • Apr 04
BBAI: Government Contract Stabilization Will Drive Confidence In 2026 Outlook
Narrative Update on BigBear.ai Holdings The implied analyst price target for BigBear.ai has moved lower by about $1.33, as analysts factor in reduced fair value estimates and target cuts from $6 to $5 and from $8 to $6. These changes are being attributed to softer sales expectations, federal contract disruptions, and ongoing execution risk.Narrative Update • Mar 21
BBAI: Federal Contract Recovery Will Test Revenue Guidance And Balance Sheet Progress
Narrative Update on BigBear.ai Holdings The analyst price target for BigBear.ai has been lowered by $1, as analysts factor in reduced sales estimates, ongoing contract related revenue headwinds and execution risk, while also acknowledging balance sheet improvements and the planned revenue contribution from the Ask Sage acquisition. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a mixed setup for BigBear.ai, with analysts trimming price targets and highlighting contract related pressure, while still pointing to specific areas that could support valuation over time.Narrative Update • Mar 06
BBAI: Future Contract Wins Will Test Revenue Guidance And Balance Sheet Improvements
Analysts have trimmed their overall price expectations for BigBear.ai, with the blended target moving from about $7 to roughly $5.50. They cite reduced sales forecasts, ongoing pressure from lumpy government contracts, and a modestly higher discount rate, even as they factor in higher projected revenue growth, slightly stronger margins, and a lower assumed future P/E.Narrative Update • Feb 20
BBAI: Lumpy Federal Contracts Will Eventually Reward Patience Despite Ongoing Margin Pressure
Analysts have trimmed their average price target for BigBear.ai to $6 from $7, citing recent research that highlights pressured near term fundamentals, a 20.1% year over year revenue decline in Q3 tied to federal program disruptions, and continued execution risk around lumpy government contracts and ongoing operating losses. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have taken a more cautious stance on BigBear.ai, pointing to recent operating trends and contract timing as key sources of risk.Narrative Update • Feb 06
BBAI: Execution On Government Contracts Will Shape 2025 Revenue Outlook
Narrative Update on BigBear.ai Holdings Analysts have trimmed their price target on BigBear.ai to US$6 from US$7, citing pressured near term fundamentals after a 20.1% revenue decline in Q3 and ongoing execution risk tied to lumpy government contracts that continue to weigh on margins and operating results. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a more cautious stance on BigBear.ai, with the rating shifted to Neutral and the price target cut to US$6 from US$7.Analysis Article • Feb 06
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 36% Price Plummet
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:BBAI ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough...
Narrative Update • Jan 25
BigBear.ai’s CargoSeer Technology Acquisition: Expanding Mission-Critical AI in Border Security, Trade Intelligence & Customs Enforcement
Author: Qudus Adebara (Founder of Wane Investment House) BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BBAI), a specialist in mission-ready artificial intelligence for national security and defense customers, has announced the acquisition of select technologies from CargoSeer, Ltd.Narrative Update • Jan 23
BBAI: Lumpy Federal Contracts And Margin Pressure Will Continue To Depress Sentiment
Narrative Update on BigBear.ai Holdings Analysts have lowered their price target on BigBear.ai Holdings to US$6 from US$7, citing pressured near term fundamentals with Q3 revenue down 20.1% year over year, continued operating losses, margin pressure, and elevated execution risk tied to lumpy government contracts. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have turned more cautious on BigBear.ai Holdings, cutting the price target to US$6 from US$7 and moving to a more neutral stance on the stock.Narrative Update • Jan 14
Strategic Partnership with the Kraft Group, Balance Sheet Deleveraging, and Mixed Market Reaction
Author: Qudus Adebara (Founder of Wane Investment House) Executive Summary BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (“BigBear.ai” or “the Company”), a provider of mission-ready artificial intelligence solutions for national security and complex enterprise environments, has announced a strategic partnership with the Kraft Group , encompassing both commercial collaboration and a high-profile marketing alliance with the New England Patriots.Narrative Update • Jan 09
BBAI: Lumpy Government Contracts Will Keep Earnings And Sentiment Under Pressure
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for BigBear.ai Holdings from $3.50 to $5.00, while also lifting assumed revenue growth and the future P/E multiple. However, they point to recent price target cuts and a downgrade to Neutral as signs that near term pressure from lumpy government contracts and weaker Q3 revenue still weighs on sentiment.Narrative Update • Dec 31
BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) – Strategic Defense Partnership Reinforces Mission-Critical AI Positioning
Author: Qudus Adebara (Founder of Wane Investment House) Executive Summary BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) continues to deepen its positioning in mission-critical, government-focused artificial intelligence with the announcement of a strategic partnership with C Speed, LLC , a U.S.-based radar and defense solutions provider.Narrative Update • Dec 24
BBAI: Airport Platform Rollout And 2025 Revenue Outlook Will Drive Future Performance
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on BigBear.ai Holdings by approximately 0.2 percent to about 6.67 dollars. This change reflects marginal adjustments to discount-rate and long-term valuation assumptions rather than any major shift in the company’s fundamental outlook.Narrative Update • Dec 10
BBAI: Airport Deployments And 2025 Revenue Outlook Will Shape Future Performance
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target on BigBear.ai Holdings to reflect a slightly lower profit margin outlook, partially offset by a marginally reduced discount rate and stable long term growth and valuation assumptions. What's in the News Opened its first Middle East office at the World Trade Center Abu Dhabi, reinforcing long term investment in the region and expanding partnerships with Vigilix and Easy Lease (Key Developments) Signed a strategic Memorandum of Understanding with Pahang Aerospace City Development Berhad and partners to support AI driven border operations and the development of Malaysia's first international spaceport (Key Developments) Deployed the veriScan biometric identity platform to support U.S. Customs and Border Protection's Enhanced Passenger Processing program at Chicago O'Hare International Airport, significantly reducing average processing times (Key Developments) Announced multiple Enhanced Passenger Processing deployments, including at Nashville International Airport, to improve security and shorten wait times for returning U.S. citizens (Key Developments) Issued revenue guidance for 2025, projecting annual revenue between 125 million dollars and 140 million dollars (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Fair Value: unchanged at 6.67, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value estimate.Narrative Update • Nov 26
BBAI: Key 2025 Revenue Developments And New Partnerships Will Influence Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target for BigBear.ai Holdings from $6.33 to $6.67. This reflects improved profit margin expectations and a more favorable discount rate in their updated outlook.Narrative Update • Nov 11
BBAI: Revenue Guidance And Partnerships Will Shape 2025 Performance Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target for BigBear.ai Holdings from $5.83 to $6.33. This reflects greater confidence in the company's stronger projected revenue growth, despite slightly higher discount rates and modestly lower profit margins.Analysis Article • Oct 15
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) Stock Rockets 76% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:BBAI ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great...Analysis Article • Aug 19
Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) Shares Dive 26%
The BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:BBAI ) share price has softened a substantial 26% over the previous 30 days...Analysis Article • Aug 13
Analysts Just Slashed Their BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) EPS Numbers
The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:BBAI ), with the analysts...Analysis Article • Jun 25
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) Stock Rockets 44% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:BBAI ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 44% gain in the last month...Analysis Article • Jun 18
Health Check: How Prudently Does BigBear.ai Holdings (NYSE:BBAI) Use Debt?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...
New Narrative • May 04
International Expansion And Alliances Will Shape Our Future
Strategic focus on international expansion and regional partnerships aims to boost revenue and global presence through successful pilots and enduring programs.Seeking Alpha • Apr 23
BigBear.ai: Trapped By Its Own Financing - Limited Upside
Summary BigBear.ai experienced a speculative rise and crash, driven by AI hype and disappointing Q4 2024 results, highlighting the need for cautious investment in small-cap AI stocks. BBAI's financial issues stem from legacy financing structures, leading to significant net loss and dilution fears, limiting future stock price growth. Despite weak revenue growth guidance and dependency on government contracts, BBAI's valuation is reasonable, but structural financial issues hinder substantial upside. BBAI is a "Hold" for existing investors due to potential short-term exit possibilities; fresh investments are not recommended until financial issues are resolved. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 16
BigBear.ai's Meltdown Is Well Deserved: Minimal Growth Prospects Ahead
Summary BigBear.ai remains expensive with minimal growth prospects, worsened by the ongoing cash burn and potential volatilities, despite the ongoing AI SaaS boom and recent contract wins. The company's gross profit margins and EBITDA margins are underwhelming, with the ongoing dilutive capital raises/higher SBCs impacting long-term shareholder value. Consensus estimates project continued unprofitability, contributing to the stock's steep correction during the market-wide selloff. Combined with the growing short interest volumes and imbalanced retail ownership, we prefer to initiate a hold rating for BBAI stock here. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 09
Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) After Its Latest Results
As you might know, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:BBAI ) last week released its latest annual, and things did not...Analysis Article • Mar 08
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:BBAI) 53% Dip Still Leaving Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over Its P/SRatio
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:BBAI ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough...Seeking Alpha • Feb 06
BigBear.ai: The Big AI Failure, Strong Sell
Summary BigBear.ai struggles with profitability and captures only 0.25% of its $80 billion TAM, making it a poor investment choice. BBAI faces stiff competition from Palantir, which has more resources, customers, and a versatile product suite. Palantir boasts higher gross margins (81.1% vs. 26.99%) and profitability, making it a superior investment in the AI sector. I recommend selling BBAI shares and investing in Palantir for better growth and tech exposure. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 18
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:BBAI) P/S Is Still On The Mark Following 25% Share Price Bounce
Despite an already strong run, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:BBAI ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 25...Seeking Alpha • Jan 17
BigBear.ai Holdings Stock: New CEO Kevin McAleenan Sparks A Rally
Summary The recent hire of former DHS Secretary Kevin McAleenan sparked a rally in BigBear.ai's share price. McAleenan was the acting United States secretary of homeland security from April to November 2019 under the first Trump administration. The company recently merged with Pangiam, of which CEO Kevin McAleenan was a founder. This now becomes a founder-led company. With the main focus of BBAI being the chasing of government contracts, the new CEO may give the company some new advantages. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Dec 21
Would BigBear.ai Holdings (NYSE:BBAI) Be Better Off With Less Debt?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Analysis Article • Nov 22
Market Participants Recognise BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:BBAI) Revenues Pushing Shares 28% Higher
The BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:BBAI ) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent...Seeking Alpha • Aug 21
BigBear.ai's Rally: Too Much Bull For This Bear, Capital Raise Likely Coming
Summary I believe that the company will need to dilute shareholders soon, given its significant cash burn and debt. In my view, the recent press release has sparked an unjustified short squeeze, inflating the stock price. I expect that within the next few quarters, investors will look back at this price surge as unsustainable. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jul 17
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:BBAI) Share Price Matching Investor Opinion
When you see that almost half of the companies in the IT industry in the United States have price-to-sales ratios (or...Analysis Article • May 04
Does BigBear.ai Holdings (NYSE:BBAI) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Shareholder Returns
| BBAI | US IT | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -16.8% | -11.4% | -3.3% |
| 1Y | 7.8% | -6.1% | 22.3% |
Return vs Industry: BBAI exceeded the US IT industry which returned -6.1% over the past year.
Return vs Market: BBAI underperformed the US Market which returned 22.3% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| BBAI volatility | |
|---|---|
| BBAI Average Weekly Movement | 11.1% |
| IT Industry Average Movement | 11.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.6% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: BBAI has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: BBAI's weekly volatility (11%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | 579 | Kevin McAleenan | bigbear.ai |
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence-powered decision intelligence solutions for national security, supply chain management, and digital identity markets. It offers supply chain and logistics solutions, such as Data Conflation at Scale, which offers a view of operations enabling real-time tracking of inventory and facilitating predictive analytics to optimize functions, including routes and delivery times; Discrete Event Simulation, a course of action analysis and digital twin solution; and Next-Gen Decision Support solution for macroeconomic and geopolitical forecasting. The company also provides cybersecurity solutions, such as artificial intelligence (AI)-powered/machine-accelerated binary analysis, cyber-physical systems vulnerability testing and evaluation, vulnerability assessment as a service, and specialized services for the department of defense and intelligence community; and autonomous systems solutions, AI/machine learning (ML) decision intelligence solutions, and AI orchestration as a service, as well as specialized consulting services.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| BBAI fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$1.91b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$288.69m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$127.35m |
15.1x
P/S Ratio-6.7x
P/E RatioIs BBAI overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| BBAI income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$127.35m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$94.54m |
| Gross Profit | US$32.81m |
| Other Expenses | US$321.50m |
| Earnings | -US$288.69m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -0.60 |
| Gross Margin | 25.76% |
| Net Profit Margin | -226.69% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 2.1% |
How did BBAI perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/10 21:52 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/10 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is covered by 4 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Ruykhaver | Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. |
| Scott Buck | H.C. Wainwright & Co. |
| Michael Latimore | Northland Capital Markets |