Space Exploration Technologies Future Growth
Future criteria checks 6/6
Space Exploration Technologies is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 56.6% and 46% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 60% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 29.8% in 3 years.
Key information
56.6%
Earnings growth rate
60.03%
EPS growth rate
| Telecom earnings growth | 47.4% |
| Revenue growth rate | 46.0% |
| Future return on equity | 29.79% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 18 Sep 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Sep 19
SpaceX Is Becoming An AI Giant
Summary SpaceX targets 5-10 GW of compute capacity in 2027, potentially making AI its largest long-term revenue engine. SemiAnalysis estimates 10 GW could support roughly $300 billion ARR if half of incremental compute capacity is externally monetized. Starlink generated a 62.9% EBITDA margin in 2025, but Connectivity simultaneously required approximately $4.18 billion of capital expenditures. Starlink satellites have three-to-five-year useful lives, implying normalized annual orbital replacement requirements potentially reaching $2.9-$3.7 billion. At roughly $2 trillion, SpaceX needs AI, Starship and V3 to deliver exceptional capital productivity, not simply exceptional revenue growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Sep 17
SPCX: Fair Value View Balances Orbital AI Ambitions And Starship Execution Risks
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Space Exploration Technologies to $140 from $117, reflecting updated assumptions for higher revenue growth, lower profit margins, and a richer future P/E multiple supported by a broad range of Street research on Starship, Starlink, and AI infrastructure. Analyst Commentary Street research on Space Exploration Technologies shows a wide split in opinion.
Narrative Update • Sep 03
SPCX: Vertically Integrated AI And Orbital Infrastructure Will Sustain Long-Term Upside Potential
Analysts now see Space Exploration Technologies' fair value edging up from $213.50 to about $222.32, reflecting higher assumed profit margins and a richer future P/E multiple tied to confidence in its vertically integrated AI and orbital infrastructure plans, even as revenue growth expectations are slightly tempered. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Space Exploration Technologies shows a wide spread of views on how sustainable the company’s current trajectory is and what that means for valuation, growth and execution risk.New Narrative • Sep 02
Massive AI Compute Spend And Unproven Launch Cadence Will Likely Constrain Future Returns
Catalysts About Space Exploration Technologies Space Exploration Technologies develops and operates launch vehicles, satellite internet networks and AI compute infrastructure across its Space, Connectivity and AI segments. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Aug 28
SpaceX’s path to $300B may be on Earth
SpaceX’s first earnings call materially changed how I think about the company. The biggest surprise was AI infrastructure.Narrative Update • Aug 19
SPCX: AI And Tokenization Optionality Will Sustain Long-Term Upside Potential
Analysts trimmed the Space Exploration Technologies fair value estimate to $213.50 from $223.00, as a slightly higher discount rate and lower projected profit margins outweighed stronger modeled revenue growth and a higher future P/E tied to ongoing enthusiasm for AI and tokenization driven demand, Starlink expansion, and Starship related optionality. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Space Exploration Technologies shows a wide spread of views on how sustainable the current valuation is and how much credit to give the company for AI, Starlink and Starship related optionality.
New Narrative • Aug 19
Massive Starship Scale Up And AI Infrastructure Will Transform Long Term Earnings Power
Catalysts About Space Exploration Technologies Space Exploration Technologies develops and operates reusable launch vehicles, global satellite connectivity through Starlink and large scale AI compute infrastructure. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?New Narrative • Aug 05
AI Compute And Global Connectivity Expansion Will Reshape This Space Infrastructure Leader
Catalysts About Space Exploration Technologies Space Exploration Technologies develops launch vehicles, broadband satellite networks and AI compute infrastructure that support commercial, government and consumer customers worldwide. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
New Narrative • Jul 02
WHY YOU SHOULD NOT BUY THE SPACEX IPO
Originally posted on June 5th 2026 on the Woodworth Contrarian Fund News Page: https://www.woodworth.fund/news/why-you-should-not-buy-the-spacex-ipo Brought to you by The Millegans & The Woodworth Contrarian Fund Sisyphus of Wall Street & The Weight of Hype: Why chasing marquee allocations is a rigged game—and what contrarians do instead. Overview: Biggest IPO ever… for whom?
New Narrative • Jun 22
SpaceX: A Sober Look at Catalysts, Risks, and Long‑Term Value After the IPO
SpaceX’s IPO has generated huge excitement, but when you strip away the headlines and ecosystem hype, the fundamentals still look like a capital‑intensive industrial business with uncertain long‑term margins. Using a disciplined valuation approach — including a 30% discount rate to reflect the lack of current profitability — the fair value estimate comes out to US$0.87 per share in 2026.Analysis Article • Jun 17
SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Could Be 49.5% Overvalued After IPO And AI Push
SpaceX stock reaction to index additions and AI push Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) has moved rapidly from its record US$75b IPO into key benchmarks, with fresh inclusion in the NASDAQ Telecom Index spotlighting its mix of satellite connectivity, launch services, and AI infrastructure. For you as an investor, that index entry matters because it can pull in rule based buying from funds that track the benchmark. At the same time, the company’s US$60b Cursor acquisition and large AI...
New Narrative • Jun 15
The trap for retailers that can evaporate more than 80% of the value.
EQUITY RESEARCH NOTE: SPACEX (SPCX) – VALUE REALIGNMENT Rating: Underweight / Avoid Current Price: $160.95 | Target Price Range: $21.41 – $28.55 Core Metric: Multiple Contraction & Scarcity Premium Dissipation. Investment Thesis: Space Exploration Technologies Corp.Narrative Update • Jun 13
AI Infrastructure in Space? The market said yes like it’s already a reality
SpaceX didn’t just deliver the largest IPO in history by dollars raised. It also entered the public market at one of the richest valuations ever seen for a company of its size.New Narrative • Jun 12
Hitting Escape Velocity with a Single Point of Failure
SpaceX owns one of the most entrenched constraints in the economy: cheap mass-to-orbit. It converts that into a deeper one, orbital bandwidth, through Starlink.New Narrative • Jun 06
Making sense of 1.75 trillion IPO
SpaceX is expected to go public under the ticker SPCX. There has been a huge amount of attention leading up to the listing, which isn’t surprising.New Narrative • Jun 06
SpaceX? Only Fast in - Fast out!
This text was written one week before SpaceX’s IPO , which is scheduled to take place on June 12, 2026, at $135 per share. Facts About Profitability Although SpaceX’s revenue is growing steadily, the company as a whole is generating a net loss.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 188,842 | 56,730 | -85,992 | 108,518 | 16 |
| 12/31/2027 | 108,309 | 26,653 | -107,998 | 52,237 | 19 |
| 12/31/2026 | 44,816 | 1,915 | -50,836 | 17,938 | 19 |
| 6/30/2026 | 23,044 | -8,889 | -33,371 | 9,900 | N/A |
| 3/31/2026 | 19,301 | -9,356 | -19,775 | 7,105 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 18,674 | -4,937 | -14,121 | 6,785 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 14,015 | 18 | -5,387 | 5,776 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 10,387 | -4,628 | 105 | 4,520 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: SPCX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.7%).
Earnings vs Market: SPCX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: SPCX is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: SPCX's revenue (46% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: SPCX's revenue (46% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: SPCX's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (29.8%)
Discover growth companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/21 21:14 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/18 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is covered by 39 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Andrew Charles Beale | Arete Research Services LLP |
| Douglas Harned | Bernstein |
| Ronald Epstein | BofA Global Research |