Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) Stock Overview
Provides low-fare passenger airline services to leisure travelers in the United States and Latin America. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 2/6 |
| Future Growth | 5/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 2/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
ULCC Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$6.94 |
| 52 Week High | US$8.41 |
| 52 Week Low | US$3.02 |
| Beta | 2.57 |
| 1 Month Change | 11.04% |
| 3 Month Change | 85.56% |
| 1 Year Change | 66.83% |
| 3 Year Change | -28.67% |
| 5 Year Change | -53.42% |
| Change since IPO | -63.18% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jul 07
ULCC: Fuel Tailwinds And Q2 Optimism Will Still Cap Share Upside
Analysts have lifted the Frontier Group Holdings price target range to around $4, with several peers moving up to between $5 and $9. They cite strong demand trends, lower fuel costs and a more constructive setup ahead of upcoming earnings updates for airlines.Seeking Alpha • Jul 03
Frontier Airlines: A Speculative Buy On A Promising Transformation
Summary Frontier Airlines is executing a strategic shift toward loyalty revenues, higher-yield travelers, and measured capacity growth. ULCC's revenue is expected to surge 30.5% YoY in Q2, but EPS is forecast to decline 60%, reflecting cost pressures outpacing revenue gains. Valuation scenarios suggest 7% to 141% upside, with a speculative buy rating based on successful execution of the new strategy. Key risks include execution on profitable growth and peak season performance; positive free cash flow is targeted by 2028, with leverage improvement by 2027. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 23
ULCC: 2026 Capacity And Fuel Tailwinds May Support Durable Free Cash Flow
Analysts have raised their price target on Frontier Group Holdings to $6 from $5, citing updated models after the latest quarterly results and an emphasis on airlines that demonstrate earnings durability, free cash flow resiliency and the potential to generate returns above their cost of capital. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Frontier Group Holdings highlights a cautious but constructive tone, with price targets lifted modestly as analysts refresh their models after the latest quarterly results.Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jul 07
ULCC: Fuel Tailwinds And Q2 Optimism Will Still Cap Share Upside
Analysts have lifted the Frontier Group Holdings price target range to around $4, with several peers moving up to between $5 and $9. They cite strong demand trends, lower fuel costs and a more constructive setup ahead of upcoming earnings updates for airlines.Seeking Alpha • Jul 03
Frontier Airlines: A Speculative Buy On A Promising Transformation
Summary Frontier Airlines is executing a strategic shift toward loyalty revenues, higher-yield travelers, and measured capacity growth. ULCC's revenue is expected to surge 30.5% YoY in Q2, but EPS is forecast to decline 60%, reflecting cost pressures outpacing revenue gains. Valuation scenarios suggest 7% to 141% upside, with a speculative buy rating based on successful execution of the new strategy. Key risks include execution on profitable growth and peak season performance; positive free cash flow is targeted by 2028, with leverage improvement by 2027. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jun 23
ULCC: 2026 Capacity And Fuel Tailwinds May Support Durable Free Cash Flow
Analysts have raised their price target on Frontier Group Holdings to $6 from $5, citing updated models after the latest quarterly results and an emphasis on airlines that demonstrate earnings durability, free cash flow resiliency and the potential to generate returns above their cost of capital. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Frontier Group Holdings highlights a cautious but constructive tone, with price targets lifted modestly as analysts refresh their models after the latest quarterly results.Narrative Update • Jun 05
ULCC: 2026 Capacity Discipline And Fuel Efficiency Will Support Repricing Potential
Narrative Update on Frontier Group Holdings Analysts have nudged the Frontier Group Holdings price target higher by $1 to $6, citing refreshed models after recent results and a focus on airlines that can sustain returns above their cost of capital and handle potential industry downturns. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Frontier Group Holdings has centered on refreshed models following the latest quarterly update and a reassessment of how the company might handle sector level volatility.
Narrative Update • May 19
ULCC: Fuel Costs And Capacity Shifts Will Shape Balanced Route Opportunity
Analyst price targets on Frontier Group Holdings have increased slightly to $5.00, up from $4.90, as analysts update their models following the Q1 report and incorporate revised assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E levels. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Frontier Group Holdings reflect a mixed tone, with some analysts fine-tuning models after the Q1 report while others focus on execution risks and industry pressures.Narrative Update • May 04
ULCC: Off Peak Capacity And Fuel Cost Risks Will Pressure Earnings
Analysts have reduced their average price target on Frontier Group Holdings by about $2 to $4, citing concerns around off-peak capacity growth, financial leverage, and fuel cost uncertainty, while demand trends are still described as solid. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Frontier Group Holdings has tilted more cautious, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets and revisiting their ratings in light of capacity, leverage, and fuel cost concerns.Narrative Update • Apr 20
ULCC: Fuel Volatility And Capacity Plans Will Shape Balanced Future Risk Profile
Analysts have trimmed the fair value estimate for Frontier Group Holdings to $4.43 from $4.71, reflecting lower price targets around $4 from several firms as they factor in fuel cost uncertainty, capacity growth, and the stock's financial leverage. Analyst Commentary Recent research has centered on lower price targets around US$4 and a shift in ratings, as analysts reassess Frontier Group Holdings in light of fuel cost uncertainty, capacity plans, and balance sheet risk.Narrative Update • Apr 06
ULCC: Fuel Cost Uncertainty Will Shape Future Earnings Upside Potential
Analyst price targets for Frontier Group Holdings have shifted lower, with several firms trimming expectations toward the $4 range as they factor in fuel cost uncertainty, softer margin assumptions, higher projected revenue growth, and a higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Frontier Group Holdings has turned more cautious, with multiple firms lowering price targets toward the US$4 range and shifting ratings toward Neutral or Underperform.Narrative Update • Mar 23
ULCC: Higher Future Multiple And Capacity Concerns Will Shape Earnings Path
The analyst price target for Frontier Group Holdings has been cut by $0.50 to $3.50, as analysts factor in recent downgrades, lower targets around $4, concerns over off peak capacity and financial leverage, and mixed views on future earnings strength that are reflected in a higher assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research has leaned cautious on Frontier Group Holdings, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets into a tighter band around $4 and shifting ratings lower.Narrative Update • Mar 08
ULCC: Constructive 2026 Backdrop And Capacity Discipline Will Drive Repricing
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Frontier Group Holdings slightly to $7.64 from $7.69, reflecting lower revenue growth assumptions, a modestly reduced discount rate, stronger projected profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple in light of recent price target cuts to $4 and $5 from several firms citing off peak capacity, leverage, and relative valuation concerns. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Frontier Group has tilted cautious overall, with several firms cutting ratings and price targets on concerns about off peak capacity, financial leverage, and relative valuation.Narrative Update • Feb 22
ULCC: Elevated Multiple And Cautious Carrier Swap Will Limit Earnings Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target on Frontier Group Holdings to $5 from $4, reflecting updated assumptions for higher revenue growth and slightly stronger profit margins, while still flagging valuation concerns and mixed views across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Frontier Group Holdings shows a mix of views, with some firms lifting price targets while others turn more cautious on the stock's risk and reward profile.Narrative Update • Feb 08
ULCC: Elevated Multiple And Lower Margins Will Likely Cap Earnings Upside
Narrative Update on Frontier Group Holdings Frontier Group Holdings' consensus analyst price target has shifted to a range anchored around $4 to $5, as analysts weigh a more constructive sector backdrop, highlighted by some firms, against concerns from others about valuation and profit sustainability. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Frontier Group shows a split view, with some seeing a constructive setup for airlines over the coming years and others flagging valuation and earnings quality concerns.Narrative Update • Jan 24
ULCC: Constructive 2026 Backdrop And Brand Loyalty Will Drive Repricing
Narrative Update: Frontier Group Holdings Analysts have modestly adjusted their price expectations for Frontier Group Holdings, with model fair value edging from about US$7.78 to roughly US$7.69. This reflects updated views on revenue growth, profit margin and a lower forward P/E, informed by mixed recent research that includes a Susquehanna price target increase to US$5 and a BofA cut to US$4 alongside a downgrade to Underperform.Narrative Update • Jan 10
ULCC: Constructive 2026 Backdrop And Brand Loyalty Will Drive Repricing
Analysts have adjusted their view on Frontier Group Holdings, with price targets shifting in a tight US$4 to US$5 range. This reflects updated assumptions on fair value, revenue growth, margins and future P/E, as they weigh a more constructive backdrop for select low cost carriers against concerns about relative valuation and earnings quality.Narrative Update • Dec 26
ULCC: Technology Merchandising Gains Will Likely Leave Earnings Upside Limited
Analysts raised their price target on Frontier Group Holdings to $4.00 from $3.00, citing improved expectations for revenue growth and profit margins, supported by evolving, technology driven merchandising trends across the U.S. airline industry. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts acknowledge that Frontier's upgraded price target reflects some improvement in expected revenue growth and margin execution, but they continue to view the risk and reward profile as balanced rather than compelling.Narrative Update • Dec 12
ULCC: Rising Fuel And Competitive Pressures Will Constrain Option-Like Upside
Analysts have raised their price target on Frontier Group Holdings to $4 from $3, citing improving demand and fare trends, a more constructive view of the airline industry's technology-driven merchandising shift, and meaningful, though option-like, upside potential under more favorable external conditions. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates reflect a more balanced, risk aware view of Frontier Group Holdings despite the higher price targets.Analysis Article • Dec 03
There's Reason For Concern Over Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ULCC) Massive 29% Price Jump
Those holding Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ULCC ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded...Narrative Update • Nov 01
ULCC: Upcoming Route Expansion Will Drive Gains From Spirit Overlap
Analysts have raised their price targets for Frontier Group Holdings, with new estimates ranging from $4 to $8. They cite improving demand, fare trends, and potential network gains as key factors supporting the outlook.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Sun Belt Demand And Digital Efficiency Will Drive Air Trends
Analysts have increased their average price target for Frontier Group Holdings to reflect recent improvements in demand and fare trends. They have raised targets to as high as $8 from prior estimates around $3, supported by anticipated industry tailwinds and increased network overlap with competitors.Narrative Update • Oct 04
Sun Belt Demand And Digital Efficiency Will Drive Air Trends
Analysts have increased their price target for Frontier Group Holdings, with consensus fair value rising from $5.39 to $5.67 per share. They cite improved industry demand, fare trends, and Frontier’s strategic positioning following recent industry shifts.Narrative Update • Sep 03
Sun Belt Demand And Digital Efficiency Will Drive Air Trends
Analysts have raised Frontier Group Holdings’ price target from $4.72 to $5.39, driven by expectations that the company will benefit most from Spirit’s bankruptcy due to significant network overlap and proactive route expansion. Analyst Commentary Expectations that Frontier will be the primary beneficiary of Spirit's bankruptcy, due to extensive network overlap.Analysis Article • Jul 23
There's Reason For Concern Over Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ULCC) Massive 26% Price Jump
Despite an already strong run, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ULCC ) shares have been powering on, with a gain...New Narrative • May 08
Network Optimization And Digital Upgrades Will Reshape Airline Travel
Network and capacity optimization is set to stabilize revenue, reduce costs, and positively impact net margins.Analysis Article • May 06
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report
It's been a pretty great week for Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ULCC ) shareholders, with its shares surging...Analysis Article • Apr 23
Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) Shares Dive 42%
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ULCC ) share price has dived 42% in the...Seeking Alpha • Apr 14
Frontier Airlines Stock Falls On Reduced Consumer Confidence Impact
Summary Frontier Airlines revised its Q1 2025 guidance, indicating a loss of $0.20 to $0.24 per share, and pulled its full-year guidance due to reduced consumer confidence. Ultra-low-cost carriers like Frontier face increased costs from pilot shortages, inflation, and higher maintenance costs, eroding their competitive edge against mainline carriers. Despite some upside potential, the high-cost basis and lower demand led me to assign a hold rating for ULCC stock with a $6.50 price target. The uncertain trade environment and weaker market demand make Frontier Airlines a speculative buy at best, with significant risks outweighing potential gains. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 09
Some Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) Shareholders Look For Exit As Shares Take 29% Pounding
The Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ULCC ) share price has softened a substantial 29% over the previous 30 days...Seeking Alpha • Jan 05
Frontier Group: Taking Off Into Future Airline Travel Demand Growth
Summary Frontier Group Holdings, the parent of Frontier Airlines, gets a buy rating, agreeing with the Seeking Alpha quant system today. The greatest weight was given to future macro-level airline travel demand growth in the US. Though not a dividend payer yet, this airline presents a modest debt risk and is growing new routes and adding newer, fuel-efficient aircraft. Though Q3 returned to profitability, its negative profit margin lags behind peers and could be a future growth opportunity. Several Wall St firms this fall were neutral or positive on this stock, including Citi, UBS, and Raymond James. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| ULCC | US Airlines | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -8.4% | -5.1% | 0.7% |
| 1Y | 66.8% | 32.6% | 20.6% |
Return vs Industry: ULCC exceeded the US Airlines industry which returned 32.6% over the past year.
Return vs Market: ULCC exceeded the US Market which returned 20.6% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| ULCC volatility | |
|---|---|
| ULCC Average Weekly Movement | 13.0% |
| Airlines Industry Average Movement | 8.3% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.3% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.6% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: ULCC's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: ULCC's weekly volatility (13%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 8,198 | Jimmy Dempsey | www.flyfrontier.com |
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., provides low-fare passenger airline services to leisure travelers in the United States and Latin America. The company sells its products through direct distribution channels, such as websites, mobile apps, and contact centers. As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 176 Airbus single-aisle aircraft.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| ULCC fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$1.59b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$366.00m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$3.80b |
0.4x
P/S Ratio-4.4x
P/E RatioIs ULCC overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| ULCC income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$3.80b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$3.88b |
| Gross Profit | -US$74.00m |
| Other Expenses | US$292.00m |
| Earnings | -US$366.00m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -1.59 |
| Gross Margin | -1.95% |
| Net Profit Margin | -9.62% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 262.6% |
How did ULCC perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/12 00:37 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/10 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. is covered by 14 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Brandon Oglenski | Barclays |
| Andrew Didora | BofA Global Research |
| John Godyn | Citigroup Inc |