FedEx Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
FedEx is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 11.4% and 4.5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 12.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16.4% in 3 years.
Key information
11.4%
Earnings growth rate
12.80%
EPS growth rate
| Logistics earnings growth | 10.1% |
| Revenue growth rate | 4.5% |
| Future return on equity | 16.42% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 06 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 30
FDX: Network 2.0 And Freight Spin Will Shape Balanced Future Trajectory
FedEx's updated analyst price target edges slightly lower to about $402 from $402, with analysts pointing to higher assumed discount rates and a modestly richer future P/E multiple, partly offset by refined expectations for margins and revenue growth. Analyst Commentary Recent research on FedEx reflects an active debate around how much of the company’s execution progress and portfolio moves are already reflected in the share price.Seeking Alpha • Apr 23
FedEx Corporation: Valuation, Technical, And Macro Downsides Still Outweigh Fundamental Soundness
Summary FedEx Corporation demonstrates operational resilience and strategic B2B focus, but current valuation limits further upside. Q3 2026 revenue rose 8.3% YoY to $24.0B, with the Federal Express segment offsetting cost pressures and driving efficiency. Rising fuel costs, inflation, and geopolitical risks threaten margins, yet FDX’s robust liquidity and contractual B2B revenues provide defensive buffers. I reiterate a Hold rating as FDX trades above target prices, with technicals signaling early bearish divergence and limited buying room. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 16
FDX: Freight Spin Off And Cost Actions Will Support Long Term Earnings
FedEx's analyst fair value estimate has been revised to $479 from $365. Analysts point to updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E as key drivers behind the higher price target range seen across recent research.Narrative Update • Apr 01
FDX: Network 2.0 And Freight Spin Will Drive Future Earnings Power
FedEx's analyst price target has been revised higher, with the fair value estimate moving from about $385 to about $402, as analysts factor in slightly stronger revenue growth, a modestly higher profit margin outlook, and an updated future P/E assumption. Analyst Commentary Street research around FedEx has been active, with a cluster of recent price target changes and several rating moves.
New Narrative • Mar 18
FedEx Corp (FDX): The "One FedEx" Integration and the Freight Spin-Off Catalyst
FedEx (FDX) is the standout performer in the industrial sector today, March 19, 2026, following a massive Q3 earnings beat that has fundamentally re-rated the stock. Closing the session at $356.10 USD , up 1.82% in late-day trading, FedEx successfully cleared a major hurdle by raising its full-year profit forecast.Narrative Update • Mar 18
FDX: Network 2.0 And Freight Spin Will Shape Fairly Balanced Outlook
FedEx's analyst price target has moved higher to reflect a fair value estimate of about $385 per share. Analysts point to updated models that incorporate incremental revenue growth assumptions, ongoing cost efficiencies, and support from recent target hikes that range from $220 to $457, while also noting some caution on valuation from more conservative research houses.Narrative Update • Mar 04
FDX: 2029 Network Plan And Freight Spin Will Shape Future Earnings Path
The analyst price target for FedEx in our model has moved higher by about $6 to reflect slightly firmer assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, and a marginally lower discount rate, broadly in line with recent Street research that highlights both improved earnings visibility and, from some, concern about valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on FedEx reflects a mix of optimism about the company’s execution and assets, alongside growing debate about how much of that progress is already reflected in the share price.Narrative Update • Feb 17
FDX: 2029 Network Plan And Freight Constraints Will Shape Future Earnings Potential
FedEx's analyst price target has moved higher, with our fair value estimate shifting from $306.54 to $370.46 as analysts react to the company's 2029 roadmap, updated revenue and margin ambitions, and higher assumed future P/E multiples following a broad wave of target hikes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research around FedEx has shifted meaningfully following the Investor Day, with a cluster of price target increases and a few downgrades offering a balanced view on how achievable the 2029 roadmap might be.Narrative Update • Feb 03
FDX: Cost Actions And Network Modernization Will Support Balanced Long Term Earnings Potential
Analysts have raised their FedEx fair value estimate to $365 from $360, reflecting updated views on revenue growth potential, a slightly lower discount rate, and a modestly higher future P/E assumption, while profit margin expectations remain broadly unchanged. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on FedEx is mixed, but there is a clear pocket of optimism from bullish analysts who have raised price targets and issued upgrades.Narrative Update • Jan 20
FDX: Cost Actions And Freight Capacity Constraints Will Shape Future Earnings Potential
Analysts have lifted their FedEx price target from about US$275 to roughly US$307. This reflects updated views on slightly higher long term revenue growth, modestly stronger profit margins, a lower discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple supported by recent research that highlights cost cutting momentum and mixed but improving transport indicators.
Narrative Update • Jan 06
FDX: Freight Recovery And Cost Risks Will Pressure Future Returns
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for FedEx to US$233.77 from US$206.04, citing higher long term P/E assumptions and ongoing cost cutting efforts, partly offset by more cautious views on revenue growth, margins, and freight segment risks. Analyst Commentary Recent research on FedEx reflects a mixed backdrop, with some firms lifting price targets while others flagging risks tied to freight, execution, and earnings visibility.Narrative Update • Dec 23
FDX: Cost Cuts And Network Optimization Will Drive Multiyear Earnings Upside
Analysts have lifted their FedEx price target by about $20 to roughly $360, reflecting growing conviction that accelerating revenue growth and improving cost efficiency can more than offset near term margin pressure and mixed views on the freight segment. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts point to a stronger execution backdrop at FedEx, arguing that ongoing cost reductions and network optimization are beginning to translate into structurally higher margins over the medium term.Narrative Update • Dec 09
FDX: Cost Discipline And Network Efficiency Will Support Earnings Amid Freight And Tariff Risks
Analysts have nudged their blended price target for FedEx modestly higher, with implied fair value rising by about $3 to roughly $275 per share. They cite building cost cutting momentum, improving network efficiency, and potential upside from a gradually firmer macro backdrop despite lingering freight and tariff uncertainties.Narrative Update • Nov 24
FDX: Cost Discipline And Network Efficiency Will Offset Freight And Operational Risks
FedEx's analyst price target increased by approximately $4 to $271.93. Analysts cite improving cost discipline, incremental revenue growth, and continued focus on network efficiency as key drivers behind the upward revision.Narrative Update • Nov 05
FDX: Fiscal Guidance And Efficiency Efforts Will Shape Prospects Amid Freight Uncertainty
FedEx's analyst price target has edged up slightly to $267.71 from $266.17, as analysts point to stabilizing freight markets and improved efficiency efforts. They also note ongoing cautious management messaging and mixed results in the freight segment.Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analyst Commentary Highlights Mixed Outlook for FedEx as Valuation Edges Down Amid Market Challenges
FedEx's analyst-derived fair value saw a slight decrease of $0.22 to $266.17 per share. Analysts cite ongoing freight market uncertainty, cautious management guidance, and mixed sentiment on operating leverage as key factors influencing their more conservative outlook.Narrative Update • Oct 08
DRIVE, Network 20 And Tricolor Efforts Will Improve Global Efficiency
FedEx's analyst fair value price target has been modestly increased from $263.04 to $266.39. Analysts cite stronger revenue growth expectations and signs of ongoing operational improvement, despite continued industry challenges.Analysis Article • Sep 22
Earnings Beat: FedEx Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
A week ago, FedEx Corporation ( NYSE:FDX ) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead...Narrative Update • Sep 13
DRIVE, Network 20 And Tricolor Efforts Will Improve Global Efficiency
FedEx's consensus price target was slightly reduced to $263.04 due to weaker package volume growth, macroeconomic uncertainties, and a lack of full-year EPS guidance, though analysts remain optimistic about long-term margin expansion from cost-cutting initiatives. Analyst Commentary Softer package volume growth, especially in business-to-consumer and less-than-truckload segments, along with weaker industrial demand, are pressuring near-term results and leading to lowered earnings estimates.Analysis Article • Aug 05
FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks
NYSE:FDX 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore FedEx's Fair Values from the Community and select yours FedEx...Analysis Article • Jul 15
An Intrinsic Calculation For FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) Suggests It's 20% Undervalued
Key Insights The projected fair value for FedEx is US$293 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price...Analysis Article • Jun 13
FedEx's (NYSE:FDX) Dividend Will Be Increased To $1.45
The board of FedEx Corporation ( NYSE:FDX ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend by 5.1% on the 8th of...Analysis Article • May 10
Is FedEx (NYSE:FDX) Using Too Much Debt?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that...Seeking Alpha • Apr 23
FedEx Corporation: Downgrading To Hold On Visible Near-Term Earnings Risk
Summary I am downgrading FedEx to a hold due to significant macro risks, despite the company's strong cost control and operational improvements. Freight struggles and global tariffs are impacting demand, with industrial recovery not expected until 2FH26, affecting high-margin B2B shipments. Positive cost management is evident, with Express segment margins improving and significant savings from DRIVE and Network 2.0 initiatives. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 22
FedEx Corp.: Management's Optimism Has Gone Too Far (Rating Downgrade)
Summary FedEx's Q3 report showed mixed results with a top-line beat but a bottom-line miss, leading to another lowered FY25 guidance due to macroeconomic challenges. Management's bullish tone contrasts with continuous guidance cuts, raising concerns about their credibility and the effectiveness of initiatives like DRIVE and Network 2.0. The Freight spinoff remains on track, offering a potential long-term investment opportunity, but the current stock is overvalued and faces significant headwinds. Downgrading FDX from HOLD to SELL due to overvaluation, poor momentum, and management's overconfidence amidst ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and inflationary pressures. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 16
FedEx Q3 Earnings Preview: Too Many Risks To Get Bullish
Summary FedEx Corporation is scheduled to report its Q3 results on March 20 after the market closes. FedEx faces economic uncertainty, tariff risks, and weak consumer sentiment going into earnings, meaning more downward revisions could be on the way. Downward revisions for EPS, revenue, and free cash flow have been common recently. The Freight spinoff could unlock value, but with a mid-2026 timeline, it's not an immediate catalyst for the stock. While FedEx's valuation isn't expensive, bearish momentum, weak earnings trends, and cyclical risks lead me to reiterate a Hold rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 10
FedEx, A Bundle Of Promises Hard To Deliver
Summary FedEx faces significant challenges due to a cyclical business model, weak margins, and inconsistent administrative execution, making it a high-risk investment despite its market position. The main catalysts for recovery are the Network 2.0 optimization plan, automation, and technological modernization, which seek to improve margins and reduce costs. Projected revenue growth of 3.6% per year and the expansion of the operating margin to 8.7% by 2029 support a cautious overweight rating, with an IRR of 10.8%. Despite the potential, there are significant risks such as macroeconomic volatility and management credibility issues that justify a cautious investment approach, emphasizing the need for solid execution. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 04
FedEx: I'm Buying The Dip
Summary FedEx's recent stock dip presents a compelling buy-the-dip opportunity due to its strong balance sheet, cost-saving DRIVE initiative, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation. At a forward P/E of 12.9 and a growing dividend yield of 2.2%, FedEx offers a significant discount and the potential for strong total returns. Patient value investors may do well by accumulating FedEx, a high-quality logistics leader, at the current bargain valuation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 26
Sold FedEx: Owned The Brand For Years; Defense And Some Old Tech Names Offer Better Opportunity
Summary Last Friday morning, December 20, 2024, FedEx (FDX) was trading up $22 near $299 per share, after reporting their fiscal Q2 ’25 financial results the night before. The surprising aspect to the report was that FedEx lowered forward guidance (again) for the core business (i.e. Express and Ground). FDX grew revenue -1% in Q2 ’25, operating income fell 3% y-o-y and EPS grew 1%. While the core FedEx margin of 6.8% looked to be about 80 bps better-than-expected, Freight missed, while Express beat. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 18
FedEx Q2 Preview: AI To Power 2025
Summary FedEx shares have dropped over 6% since early July due to inefficiencies compared to competitors like UPS, leading to a lower P/E multiple. Despite underperformance, FedEx is investing in AI to optimize logistics and improve profit margins, with new tools like the Shipment Eligibility Orchestrator. FedEx's DRIVE program aims to enhance efficiency, not just cut costs, making AI integration crucial for future growth and margin expansion. Although currently high-risk, I remain optimistic about FedEx's AI-driven turnaround, making shares a strong buy at an attractive valuation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 10
FedEx: Forget Weakness And Focus Instead On Price
Summary Despite recent revenue declines and mixed profitability, FedEx remains a "buy" due to its attractive valuation and lower leverage compared to UPS. FedEx's DRIVE program aims for $4 billion in annual savings by 2025, with $2.2 billion forecasted for this year alone. The company's financial performance has been impacted by challenging macroeconomic conditions and a shift toward cheaper economic services. Management's cost-cutting measures and the company's lower net leverage ratio make FedEx an appealing investment despite current industry weaknesses. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31/2028 | 102,602 | 6,007 | 6,036 | 10,738 | 14 |
| 5/31/2027 | 98,024 | 5,194 | 4,999 | 9,665 | 25 |
| 5/31/2026 | 93,508 | 4,139 | 4,151 | 8,224 | 24 |
| 2/28/2026 | 91,933 | 4,477 | 4,371 | 8,179 | N/A |
| 11/30/2025 | 90,093 | 4,331 | 4,348 | 8,198 | N/A |
| 8/31/2025 | 88,591 | 4,117 | 3,654 | 7,565 | N/A |
| 5/31/2025 | 87,926 | 4,087 | 2,981 | 7,036 | N/A |
| 2/28/2025 | 87,815 | 3,913 | 3,431 | 7,215 | N/A |
| 11/30/2024 | 87,393 | 3,883 | 2,647 | 6,813 | N/A |
| 8/31/2024 | 87,591 | 4,041 | 2,616 | 7,269 | N/A |
| 5/31/2024 | 87,693 | 4,325 | 3,136 | 8,312 | N/A |
| 2/29/2024 | 87,514 | 4,389 | 3,333 | 9,061 | N/A |
| 11/30/2023 | 87,945 | 4,281 | 4,100 | 9,727 | N/A |
| 8/31/2023 | 88,594 | 4,169 | 3,291 | 9,471 | N/A |
| 5/31/2023 | 90,155 | 3,966 | 2,674 | 8,848 | N/A |
| 2/28/2023 | 92,619 | 2,987 | 2,099 | 8,903 | N/A |
| 11/30/2022 | 94,091 | 3,327 | 2,113 | 8,875 | N/A |
| 8/31/2022 | 94,751 | 3,583 | 2,878 | 9,355 | N/A |
| 5/31/2022 | 93,512 | 3,819 | 3,069 | 9,832 | N/A |
| 2/28/2022 | 91,683 | 5,126 | 3,012 | 9,073 | N/A |
| 11/30/2021 | 89,552 | 4,906 | 2,786 | 8,987 | N/A |
| 8/31/2021 | 86,641 | 5,087 | 3,538 | 9,568 | N/A |
| 5/31/2021 | 83,959 | 5,220 | 4,251 | 10,135 | N/A |
| 2/28/2021 | 78,752 | 3,023 | 3,846 | 9,211 | N/A |
| 11/30/2020 | 74,729 | 2,447 | 2,825 | 8,253 | N/A |
| 8/31/2020 | 71,490 | 1,783 | 1,309 | 7,183 | N/A |
| 5/31/2020 | 69,217 | 1,284 | -771 | 5,097 | N/A |
| 2/29/2020 | 69,666 | -350 | -870 | 5,568 | N/A |
| 11/30/2019 | 69,189 | 74 | N/A | 5,508 | N/A |
| 8/31/2019 | 69,689 | 449 | N/A | 5,477 | N/A |
| 5/31/2019 | 69,693 | 539 | N/A | 5,613 | N/A |
| 2/28/2019 | 69,200 | 3,631 | N/A | 6,835 | N/A |
| 11/30/2018 | 68,716 | 4,965 | N/A | 5,355 | N/A |
| 8/31/2018 | 67,205 | 4,805 | N/A | 4,785 | N/A |
| 5/31/2018 | 65,450 | 4,566 | N/A | 4,674 | N/A |
| 2/28/2018 | 63,864 | 4,460 | N/A | 3,447 | N/A |
| 11/30/2017 | 62,335 | 2,948 | N/A | 3,793 | N/A |
| 8/31/2017 | 60,953 | 2,874 | N/A | 4,549 | N/A |
| 5/31/2017 | 60,319 | 2,993 | N/A | 4,930 | N/A |
| 2/28/2017 | 57,570 | 1,904 | N/A | 4,557 | N/A |
| 11/30/2016 | 55,227 | 1,850 | N/A | 5,889 | N/A |
| 8/31/2016 | 52,749 | 1,841 | N/A | 5,438 | N/A |
| 5/31/2016 | 50,365 | 1,818 | N/A | 5,708 | N/A |
| 2/29/2016 | 49,500 | 995 | N/A | 5,689 | N/A |
| 11/30/2015 | 48,562 | 1,115 | N/A | 5,669 | N/A |
| 8/31/2015 | 48,048 | 1,086 | N/A | 5,625 | N/A |
| 5/31/2015 | 47,453 | 1,048 | N/A | 5,366 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: FDX's forecast earnings growth (11.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: FDX's earnings (11.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: FDX's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: FDX's revenue (4.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: FDX's revenue (4.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: FDX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.4%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/06 11:56 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/06 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/02/28 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/05/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
FedEx Corporation is covered by 50 analysts. 25 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Will Chien | Accountability Research Corporation |
| John Eade | Argus Research Company |
| Benjamin Hartford | Baird |