Elastic N.V.

NYSE:ESTC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.3b

Elastic Valuation

Is ESTC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of ESTC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: ESTC ($62.3) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($111.15)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: ESTC is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ESTC?

Key metric: As ESTC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ESTC. This is calculated by dividing ESTC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ESTC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.6x
EarningsUS$367.77m
Market CapUS$6.27b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ESTC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ESTC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28.9x
YOU Clear Secure
42.5x26.57%US$6.7b
IDCC InterDigital
20.4x3.09%US$7.3b
APPF AppFolio
36.8x19.93%US$5.7b
PEGA Pegasystems
16x7.80%US$5.5b
ESTC Elastic
17.6x-28.99%US$6.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ESTC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the peer average (28.9x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ESTC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PD PagerDuty
3.6x-73.02%US$691.02m
XNET Xunlei
0.4xn/aUS$332.91m
FDCT FDCTech
2.2xn/aUS$28.35m
GREE Greenidge Generation Holdings
4.1xn/aUS$23.19m
ESTC 17.6xIndustry Avg. 26.4xNo. of Companies17PE020406080100+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ESTC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the US Software industry average (26.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ESTC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ESTC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.6x
Fair PE Ratio14.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ESTC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ESTC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$62.30
US$74.52
+19.61%
21.57%US$120.00US$53.00n/a27
Jun ’27US$68.06
US$72.01
+5.81%
19.91%US$106.00US$49.36n/a26
May ’27US$48.61
US$78.59
+61.68%
21.40%US$116.00US$49.36n/a26
Apr ’27US$49.91
US$82.13
+64.55%
17.52%US$116.00US$60.00n/a24
Mar ’27US$52.07
US$82.79
+59.00%
17.52%US$116.00US$60.00n/a24
Feb ’27US$65.93
US$103.16
+56.47%
15.28%US$143.00US$75.00n/a25
Jan ’27US$75.44
US$104.35
+38.32%
16.33%US$143.00US$75.00n/a26
Dec ’26US$71.09
US$106.22
+49.42%
17.82%US$150.00US$75.00n/a27
Nov ’26US$89.22
US$119.78
+34.25%
12.69%US$150.00US$90.00n/a27
Oct ’26US$86.62
US$120.50
+39.11%
11.15%US$150.00US$90.00n/a26
Sep ’26US$85.06
US$120.16
+41.26%
9.08%US$143.00US$92.00n/a25
Aug ’26US$79.58
US$110.48
+38.83%
14.09%US$143.00US$75.00n/a25
Jul ’26US$83.71
US$111.59
+33.31%
13.73%US$143.00US$75.00n/a26
Jun ’26US$80.87
US$112.94
+39.66%
15.74%US$160.00US$75.00US$68.0626
May ’26US$86.30
US$126.86
+47.00%
14.88%US$160.00US$75.00US$48.6125
Apr ’26US$91.34
US$132.81
+45.40%
10.40%US$160.00US$93.12US$49.9126
Mar ’26US$116.36
US$132.74
+14.07%
10.18%US$150.00US$93.12US$52.0726
Feb ’26US$112.58
US$126.20
+12.10%
10.29%US$150.00US$93.12US$65.9326
Jan ’26US$99.08
US$127.24
+28.43%
10.07%US$150.00US$93.12US$75.4425
Dec ’25US$109.46
US$127.13
+16.14%
10.27%US$150.00US$93.12US$71.0924
Nov ’25US$80.84
US$100.55
+24.38%
12.15%US$130.00US$75.00US$89.2224
Oct ’25US$75.01
US$100.96
+34.60%
12.33%US$130.00US$75.00US$86.6224
Sep ’25US$76.19
US$102.09
+34.00%
12.41%US$130.00US$75.00US$85.0622
Aug ’25US$107.18
US$127.27
+18.75%
12.04%US$155.00US$92.00US$79.5822
Jul ’25US$115.48
US$127.27
+10.21%
12.04%US$155.00US$92.00US$83.7122
Jun ’25US$104.05
US$126.82
+21.88%
11.53%US$145.00US$92.00US$80.8722
US$74.52
Fair Value
16.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
27
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/15 10:44
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/15 00:00
Earnings2026/04/30
Annual Earnings2026/04/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Elastic N.V. is covered by 33 analysts. 28 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Shrenik KothariBaird
Raimo LenschowBarclays
William Kingsley CraneBerenberg