Elastic N.V.

NYSE:ESTC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$7.5b

Elastic Valuation

Is ESTC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of ESTC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: ESTC ($69.57) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($135.04)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: ESTC is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ESTC?

Key metric: As ESTC is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for ESTC. This is calculated by dividing ESTC's market cap by their current revenue.
What is ESTC's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.6x
SalesUS$1.61b
Market CapUS$7.52b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ESTC's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ESTC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7x
OTEX Open Text
1.4x1.25%US$7.5b
APPF AppFolio
8.4x17.16%US$7.8b
IDCC InterDigital
9x-11.26%US$7.9b
TTAN ServiceTitan
9.2x13.83%US$8.5b
ESTC Elastic
4.6x12.12%US$7.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ESTC is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.6x) compared to the peer average (7x).

Historical Price to Sales Ratio

Historical Price to Sales Ratio compares a stock's price to its sales over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does ESTC's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

75 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
RNG RingCentral
0.9x4.67%US$2.25b
VYX NCR Voyix
0.5x-11.78%US$1.48b
RPD Rapid7
1x1.92%US$827.68m
DSP Viant Technology
0.6x13.26%US$782.92m
ESTC 4.6xIndustry Avg. 4.5xNo. of Companies75PS048121620+
75 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ESTC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.6x) compared to the US Software industry average (4.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ESTC's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ESTC PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.6x
Fair PS Ratio6.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ESTC is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (6.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ESTC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$69.57
US$103.96
+49.43%
15.94%US$143.00US$75.00n/a25
Jan ’27US$75.44
US$104.35
+38.32%
16.33%US$143.00US$75.00n/a26
Dec ’26US$71.09
US$106.22
+49.42%
17.82%US$150.00US$75.00n/a27
Nov ’26US$89.22
US$119.78
+34.25%
12.69%US$150.00US$90.00n/a27
Oct ’26US$86.62
US$120.50
+39.11%
11.15%US$150.00US$90.00n/a26
Sep ’26US$85.06
US$120.16
+41.26%
9.08%US$143.00US$92.00n/a25
Aug ’26US$79.58
US$110.48
+38.83%
14.09%US$143.00US$75.00n/a25
Jul ’26US$83.71
US$111.59
+33.31%
13.73%US$143.00US$75.00n/a26
Jun ’26US$80.87
US$112.94
+39.66%
15.74%US$160.00US$75.00n/a26
May ’26US$86.30
US$126.86
+47.00%
14.88%US$160.00US$75.00n/a25
Apr ’26US$91.34
US$132.81
+45.40%
10.40%US$160.00US$93.12n/a26
Mar ’26US$116.36
US$132.74
+14.07%
10.18%US$150.00US$93.12n/a26
Feb ’26US$112.58
US$126.20
+12.10%
10.29%US$150.00US$93.12n/a26
Jan ’26US$99.08
US$127.24
+28.43%
10.07%US$150.00US$93.12US$75.4425
Dec ’25US$109.46
US$127.13
+16.14%
10.27%US$150.00US$93.12US$71.0924
Nov ’25US$80.84
US$100.55
+24.38%
12.15%US$130.00US$75.00US$89.2224
Oct ’25US$75.01
US$100.96
+34.60%
12.33%US$130.00US$75.00US$86.6224
Sep ’25US$76.19
US$102.09
+34.00%
12.41%US$130.00US$75.00US$85.0622
Aug ’25US$107.18
US$127.27
+18.75%
12.04%US$155.00US$92.00US$79.5822
Jul ’25US$115.48
US$127.27
+10.21%
12.04%US$155.00US$92.00US$83.7122
Jun ’25US$104.05
US$126.82
+21.88%
11.53%US$145.00US$92.00US$80.8722
May ’25US$105.75
US$132.58
+25.37%
14.40%US$185.00US$92.00US$86.3022
Apr ’25US$100.56
US$132.58
+31.84%
14.40%US$185.00US$92.00US$91.3422
Mar ’25US$117.01
US$131.59
+12.46%
15.88%US$185.00US$92.00US$116.3622
Feb ’25US$118.66
US$111.00
-6.46%
16.93%US$140.00US$67.00US$112.5821
Jan ’25US$112.70
US$103.53
-8.13%
15.05%US$131.00US$67.00US$99.0821
US$103.96
Fair Value
33.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
25
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/20 16:39
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/20 00:00
Earnings2025/10/31
Annual Earnings2025/04/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Elastic N.V. is covered by 36 analysts. 26 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Shrenik KothariBaird
Raimo LenschowBarclays
William Kingsley CraneBerenberg