Pony AI Inc.

NasdaqGS:PONY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.2b

Pony AI Valuation

Is PONY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of PONY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: PONY ($14.31) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($64.51)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: PONY is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PONY?

Key metric: As PONY barely has revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for PONY. This is calculated by dividing PONY's market cap by their current book value.
What is PONY's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio7.7x
BookUS$801.22m
Market CapUS$6.20b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does PONY's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for PONY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.7x
OTEX Open Text
1.6x22.16%US$6.3b
PEGA Pegasystems
11.4x6.53%US$6.8b
ESTC Elastic
7x52.52%US$6.2b
ACIW ACI Worldwide
2.9x5.84%US$4.4b
PONY Pony AI
7.7x43.90%US$6.2b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: PONY is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (7.7x) compared to the peer average (5.4x).

Historical Price to Book Ratio

Historical Price to Book Ratio compares a stock's price to the book value of it's equity over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does PONY's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

31 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
XNET Xunlei
0.2xn/aUS$364.19m
XPER Xperi
0.6x44.36%US$249.28m
TONX TON Strategy
0.2xn/aUS$115.82m
BTCS BTCS
0.4x-126.41%US$81.03m
PONY 7.7xIndustry Avg. 2.9xNo. of Companies37PB02.44.87.29.612+
31 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: PONY is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (7.7x) compared to the US Software industry average (2.9x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PONY's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PONY PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio7.7x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate PONY's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PONY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$14.31
US$23.74
+65.92%
19.22%US$32.80US$15.00n/a14
Feb ’27US$13.88
US$23.80
+71.47%
19.55%US$32.80US$15.00n/a14
Jan ’27US$14.50
US$24.10
+66.21%
20.59%US$32.80US$15.00n/a12
Dec ’26US$14.15
US$24.12
+70.46%
18.42%US$32.80US$20.00n/a10
Nov ’26US$18.68
US$24.76
+32.56%
20.60%US$32.80US$20.00n/a8
Oct ’26US$23.02
US$22.53
-2.13%
16.48%US$29.00US$20.00n/a7
Sep ’26US$14.37
US$20.11
+39.92%
12.44%US$24.50US$15.25n/a7
Aug ’26US$13.04
US$20.54
+57.52%
15.25%US$26.00US$15.25n/a6
Jul ’26US$13.20
US$20.65
+56.43%
16.57%US$26.00US$15.25n/a5
Jun ’26US$19.26
US$22.00
+14.23%
10.66%US$26.00US$20.00n/a4
May ’26US$8.56
US$20.43
+138.61%
9.34%US$23.00US$17.70n/a4
Apr ’26US$7.89
US$21.75
+175.67%
14.53%US$26.00US$17.70n/a4
Mar ’26US$16.07
US$22.43
+39.55%
15.60%US$26.00US$18.00n/a4
Feb ’26US$13.16
US$19.40
+47.42%
4.25%US$20.00US$18.00US$13.884
Jan ’26US$14.35
US$18.80
+31.01%
4.26%US$19.60US$18.00US$14.502
US$23.74
Fair Value
39.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/02/08 00:12
End of Day Share Price 2026/02/06 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Pony AI Inc. is covered by 16 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jiong ShaoBarclays
Ming-Hsun LeeBofA Global Research
Yonghuo LiangChina Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd