Elastic Future Growth
Future criteria checks 2/6
Elastic's earnings are forecast to decline at 55.1% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 13.7% per year. EPS is expected to decline by 58.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 24.5% in 3 years.
Key information
-55.1%
Earnings growth rate
-58.43%
EPS growth rate
| Software earnings growth | 20.4% |
| Revenue growth rate | 13.7% |
| Future return on equity | 24.45% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 10 Sep 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Sep 03
ESTC: AI Demand Uncertainty Will Cap Future Share Price Upside
The fair value estimate for Elastic has been raised from $53.00 to about $67.59 as analysts lift price targets into upcoming earnings, citing expectations for healthy sales led subscription trends, improving profit margins, and cautious optimism around AI driven search and security demand, despite still elevated execution and valuation risks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Elastic highlights a mix of optimism on long term potential and caution on near term execution.Seeking Alpha • Aug 28
Elastic: No SaaSpocalypse Here As Revenue Continues To Accelerate
Summary Elastic delivered strong fiscal Q1 results, raised full-year guidance, and saw a ~15% post-earnings stock surge. ESTC’s consumption-based model insulates it from per-seat SaaS risks and positions it to benefit from rising data usage and AI trends. Net expansion rates exceed 110% and backlog growth outpaces revenue, signaling robust customer engagement and future revenue visibility. With nearly $1 billion net cash, a $500 million buyback, and high-teen growth/margins, ESTC remains attractively valued and a continued "Buy." Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Aug 17
ESTC: AI Search And Security Demand Will Drive Future Upside
Elastic's analyst fair value estimate has moved from $106.01 to $111.35 as analysts factor in updated views on revenue growth, profitability and P/E assumptions, alongside recent price target changes clustered around expectations for AI search, security demand and subscription momentum. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Elastic shows a wide spread of views, but bullish analysts are increasingly highlighting specific execution drivers such as sales led subscription growth, AI search use cases and security demand.Narrative Update • Jul 15
ESTC: AI Monetization Uncertainty Will Limit Future Share Price Upside
Elastic's updated analyst price target edges higher to $53.00, with analysts pointing to a modest adjustment in long term revenue growth assumptions, slightly lower profit margin expectations, and a higher future P/E multiple to reflect ongoing AI related opportunities and execution risks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Elastic shows a mixed but cautious tone, with many bearish analysts trimming price targets as they reassess growth visibility, AI monetization, and execution risk following recent results and guidance.Narrative Update • Jul 01
ESTC: AI Demand And Large Deals Will Drive Future Upside
Elastic's analyst-derived fair value estimate has been trimmed from $112.23 to $106.01 as analysts recalibrate price targets in light of mixed post-earnings commentary, leadership changes, and questions around the timing of AI-driven revenue acceleration. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Elastic highlights a split view, but there are clear pockets of optimism around the company’s AI positioning, large customer activity, and the potential for bookings and sales-led subscriptions to influence valuation over time.
Narrative Update • Jun 17
ESTC: AI Data Demand And RPO Strength Will Drive Stock Upside
Elastic's updated analyst price target moves down from about $100 to roughly $75, as analysts factor in tempered revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, along with mixed signals on AI driven demand and subscription momentum. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Elastic reflects a wide range of opinions, with price targets spanning from the mid US$50s to just above US$100.Narrative Update • Jun 02
ESTC: AI Demand And Cloud Headwinds Will Limit Future Upside Potential
Elastic's updated fair value estimate moves from $60.00 to about $49.36 as analysts adjust their price targets and valuation multiples in response to mixed signals around AI driven growth, cloud revenue trends, and the timing of sales led subscription acceleration. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Elastic points to a more cautious tone, even where ratings remain positive.Narrative Update • May 18
ESTC: AI Workloads And Larger Deals Will Support Future Upside
Elastic's analyst price targets have generally shifted lower, with cuts ranging from about $5 to $35 as analysts factor in softer cloud momentum, a more cautious revenue outlook, and a slightly higher assumed discount rate, even as they point to steady self managed demand and ongoing interest in AI driven use cases. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts acknowledge the recent round of price target cuts but still point to several positives around Elastic's execution, especially in self managed deployments and AI focused workloads.Narrative Update • May 02
ESTC: AI Workloads And Larger Deals Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Narrative Update on Elastic The updated analyst price target for Elastic edges higher to $112.23 from $110.90. This reflects models that now assume more moderate revenue growth and profit margins alongside a much higher future P/E, in line with recent Street research that pairs cautious cloud and AI adoption expectations with ongoing interest in Elastic as an observability and data infrastructure name.Narrative Update • Apr 17
ESTC: AI And Self Managed Demand Will Support Future Returns
Analysts have trimmed their average Elastic price targets by $10 to reflect more cautious assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and cloud adoption, even as they continue to highlight ongoing AI and self managed demand as key supports for the story. Analyst Commentary Across recent research, bearish analysts have largely focused on resetting expectations for Elastic by trimming price targets, even when they acknowledge solid Q3 execution and ongoing interest in AI use cases.Narrative Update • Apr 03
ESTC: AI Demand And Larger Deals Will Support Future Upside Potential
Elastic's analyst price targets have been reset lower, with cuts ranging from about $5 to $35 as analysts factor in Q3 cloud softness, conservative guidance, and updated AI adoption expectations, despite generally solid reported results. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Elastic reflects a mixed but generally constructive stance, with many firms trimming price targets after the Q3 print while still pointing to solid execution, ongoing AI traction, and potential for subscription driven growth.Narrative Update • Mar 20
ESTC: AI Demand And Larger Deals Will Drive Future Upside
Elastic's fair value estimate has been revised from $119.00 to $110.90 as analysts factor in lower Street price targets, more conservative revenue growth assumptions, and stronger profitability supported by AI driven demand and solid self managed and SaaS performance. Analyst Commentary Street research on Elastic has shifted toward more conservative price targets, but many firms still highlight constructive views on execution, AI driven demand, and the mix of self managed and SaaS revenue.Narrative Update • Mar 06
ESTC: AI Adoption And Self Managed Demand Will Support Future Upside Potential
Elastic's fair value estimate has been reduced from about $89.66 to $60.00 as analysts trim price targets following solid Q3 results, paired with more cautious revenue guidance, softer cloud momentum, and a greater mix of self managed deployments as customers focus on tighter AI related cost controls. Analyst Commentary Street research around Elastic has turned more cautious, even as many firms acknowledge solid Q3 execution.Narrative Update • Feb 20
ESTC: GenAI And Data Demand Will Support Upside Through Cloud Volatility
Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on Elastic, with our fair value estimate moving from about $104.54 to $99.63 as several firms cut targets into the $77 to $115 range, while still pointing to solid demand checks for data infrastructure and a specific preference for Elastic within software coverage. Analyst Commentary Recent research suggests that while price targets on Elastic are coming down, many firms still see the company as one of the more attractive names within data infrastructure and broader software coverage.Narrative Update • Feb 05
ESTC: GenAI And Large Deals Will Shape Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Elastic to $119 from about $137, reflecting a series of reduced price targets that weigh a slightly higher discount rate and a lower assumed future P/E against ongoing expectations for steady revenue growth and modestly improving margins. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Elastic has centered on recalibrated price targets after a mixed fiscal Q2, with most firms keeping positive views on execution and long term demand drivers.Narrative Update • Jan 22
ESTC: GenAI And Large Deals Will Drive Long Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Elastic across several firms, and our updated fair value estimate now aligns slightly lower. This reflects mixed Q2 results, slower cloud growth, and peer multiple compression, even as analysts point to raised FY26 guidance, large deal progress, and ongoing GenAI and observability opportunities as supportive factors.Narrative Update • Jan 07
ESTC: GenAI And Large Deals Will Support Long Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Elastic from about $140.57 to roughly $137.33. This reflects lower price targets across Wall Street as they weigh mixed Q2 results, softer cloud trends, higher assumed discount rates, a reduced profit margin outlook, and a materially higher future P/E assumption.Narrative Update • Dec 20
ESTC: GenAI Demand Will Drive Long-Term Upside Despite Near-Term Cloud Headwinds
Analysts have modestly trimmed their fair value estimate for Elastic to approximately $104.54 from about $106.22. This reflects lowered price targets across the Street as mixed Q2 execution, softer cloud momentum, and broader multiple compression temper enthusiasm around otherwise solid large deal activity, GenAI progress, and raised long term guidance.Narrative Update • Dec 06
ESTC: GenAI Adoption And Large Deal Momentum Will Drive Long-Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Elastic to about $106 from roughly $108, citing mixed Q2 execution, slowing cloud momentum, and a modestly higher risk profile, even as they highlight resilient large deal activity, raised long term guidance, and growing GenAI opportunities. Analyst Commentary Analyst opinion on Elastic is split, with several firms trimming price targets but maintaining constructive views on the company’s long term positioning, while others have moved to the sidelines amid concerns about execution and valuation following the latest quarter.Analysis Article • Nov 23
Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) Price Target After Its Latest Report
One of the biggest stories of last week was how Elastic N.V. ( NYSE:ESTC ) shares plunged 23% in the week since its...Narrative Update • Nov 21
ESTC: GenAI Adoption And Expanding Pipelines Will Drive Platform Differentiation
Elastic's fair value estimate has been reduced from $120.16 to $107.96. Analysts point to a series of mixed quarterly results and ongoing segment shifts, despite an improved long-term outlook and strengthening profit margins.Narrative Update • Aug 27
GenAI And Serverless Expansion Will Drive Future Success
Elastic’s consensus price target saw a modest downgrade to $108.65 as analysts weighed intensifying AI competition and conservative CFO guidance against the company’s AI and subscription growth potential, with shares remaining attractively valued versus software peers. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts note Elastic is favorably positioned for revenue upside and generative AI optionality, highlighting potential acceleration in key subscription revenue metrics.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/30/2029 | 2,637 | 161 | 598 | 671 | 12 |
| 4/30/2028 | 2,300 | 89 | 533 | 542 | 28 |
| 4/30/2027 | 2,005 | 30 | 424 | 423 | 27 |
| 7/31/2026 | 1,802 | 376 | 349 | 354 | N/A |
| 4/30/2026 | 1,739 | 368 | 322 | 327 | N/A |
| 1/31/2026 | 1,677 | -85 | 257 | 261 | N/A |
| 10/31/2025 | 1,609 | -109 | 302 | 306 | N/A |
| 7/31/2025 | 1,551 | -83 | 314 | 318 | N/A |
| 4/30/2025 | 1,483 | -108 | 262 | 266 | N/A |
| 1/31/2025 | 1,430 | -133 | 237 | 240 | N/A |
| 10/31/2024 | 1,376 | 60 | 201 | 204 | N/A |
| 7/31/2024 | 1,321 | 61 | 160 | 164 | N/A |
| 4/30/2024 | 1,267 | 62 | 145 | 149 | N/A |
| 1/31/2024 | 1,212 | 56 | 111 | 115 | N/A |
| 10/31/2023 | 1,159 | -193 | 67 | 70 | N/A |
| 7/31/2023 | 1,113 | -215 | 80 | 83 | N/A |
| 4/30/2023 | 1,069 | -236 | 33 | 36 | N/A |
| 1/31/2023 | 1,028 | -255 | 2 | 5 | N/A |
| 10/31/2022 | 978 | -239 | -2 | 3 | N/A |
| 7/31/2022 | 919 | -239 | -24 | -18 | N/A |
| 4/30/2022 | 862 | -204 | -2 | 6 | N/A |
| 1/31/2022 | 801 | -182 | 0 | 7 | N/A |
| 10/31/2021 | 734 | -163 | 15 | 22 | N/A |
| 7/31/2021 | 673 | -145 | 9 | 15 | N/A |
| 4/30/2021 | 608 | -129 | 18 | 23 | N/A |
| 1/31/2021 | 555 | -117 | 15 | 18 | N/A |
| 10/31/2020 | 511 | -124 | -28 | -24 | N/A |
| 7/31/2020 | 467 | -144 | -11 | -7 | N/A |
| 4/30/2020 | 428 | -167 | N/A | -31 | N/A |
| 1/31/2020 | 385 | -171 | N/A | -44 | N/A |
| 10/31/2019 | 342 | -148 | N/A | -30 | N/A |
| 7/31/2019 | 305 | -125 | N/A | -31 | N/A |
| 4/30/2019 | 272 | -102 | N/A | -24 | N/A |
| 1/31/2019 | 241 | -89 | N/A | -28 | N/A |
| 10/31/2018 | 211 | -81 | N/A | -21 | N/A |
| 7/31/2018 | 185 | -61 | N/A | -17 | N/A |
| 4/30/2018 | 160 | -53 | N/A | -21 | N/A |
| 4/30/2017 | 88 | -52 | N/A | -16 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ESTC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-55.1% per year).
Earnings vs Market: ESTC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-55.1% per year).
High Growth Earnings: ESTC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: ESTC's revenue (13.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ESTC's revenue (13.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: ESTC's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (24.5%)
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/11 04:08 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/11 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/07/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/04/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Elastic N.V. is covered by 33 analysts. 28 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Shrenik Kothari | Baird |
| Raimo Lenschow | Barclays |
| William Kingsley Crane | Berenberg |