HAS: Gaming And Digital Franchise Momentum Will Drive Further Upside Beyond 2025

Analysts have modestly raised their blended price target on Hasbro by a few dollars per share, reflecting confidence that solid Q3 execution, a maturing strategic pivot, and a strengthening Magic and video game pipeline can support slightly faster growth and improved long term earnings power, despite only incremental changes to discount rate and profitability assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts highlight that the incremental price target increases reflect growing conviction that Hasbro can deliver upside to prior growth and margin expectations as its strategic pivot gains traction.

While near term execution has been encouraging, some bearish analysts remain focused on the durability of these trends and the risk that elevated expectations could outpace actual earnings delivery.

Bullish Takeaways

Recent price target hikes into the high $80s and low $100s signal increased confidence that Q3 outperformance is repeatable and not purely driven by one time factors. This supports a higher earnings and valuation base.
Bullish analysts see the strategic pivot as firmly underway. Q3 EPS strength despite below the line headwinds reinforces the view that cost discipline and portfolio focus can drive structurally better margins over time.
Management meetings at recent industry events have strengthened views that Magic can post another strong year in 2025, supported by a robust 2026 set schedule that underpins multi year revenue visibility.
The expanding video game pipeline is viewed as an underappreciated growth driver that could diversify Hasbro's earnings mix and justify premium multiples if execution remains solid.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts caution that recent price target increases are modest relative to the stock's prior decline. This suggests that the implied upside may already reflect much of the near term improvement in execution.
There is concern that Q3 strength benefited from favorable comparisons, and that sustaining double digit growth in Magic and games into 2026 may prove challenging if consumer demand normalizes.
Some worry that investments required to build out the video game pipeline could pressure free cash flow and delay the full margin benefits of the strategic pivot if titles are delayed or underperform.
Uncertainty around the broader macro and holiday spending environment leaves risk that consensus earnings and the newly raised price targets could still be vulnerable if trends weaken.

What's in the News

Hasbro issued 2025 guidance calling for high single digit constant currency revenue growth, signaling confidence in the post pivot growth trajectory. (Corporate guidance)
Hasbro and Netflix were named global co master toy partners for hit film KPop Demon Hunters, with a broad toy and games lineup planned for 2026 to capitalize on the franchise's surge in popularity. (Client announcement)
Hasbro and 37GAMES will conclude their year long Transformers collaboration in mobile title Puzzles & Survival on December 15, 2025, reinforcing the company’s growing presence in licensed gaming. (Client announcement)
Duluth Trading and Hasbro launched a nostalgia driven holiday collaboration that features classic brands like Potato Head, Lincoln Logs, Tonka and Tinkertoy across Duluth apparel and select toy assortments. (Client announcement)
Kayou and Hasbro previewed the My Little Pony Card Game, Friendships Begin at New York Comic Con ahead of a wider U.S. launch in 2026, expanding Hasbro’s reach in trading card games beyond Magic. (Product related announcement)

Valuation Changes

Fair Value per Share has risen slightly, moving from $91.54 to approximately $92.08. This reflects a modestly higher long term earnings outlook.
Discount Rate has edged up slightly, from about 7.68 percent to 7.69 percent. This implies a marginally higher required return on Hasbro’s future cash flows.
Revenue Growth has increased modestly, with long term assumptions moving from roughly 5.25 percent to 5.30 percent. This signals slightly stronger anticipated top line momentum.
Net Profit Margin has slipped slightly, easing from around 16.36 percent to 16.30 percent. This indicates a minor reduction in projected long term profitability levels.
Future P/E multiple has risen slightly, from about 19.53x to 19.70x. This suggests a small upward adjustment in the valuation investors are expected to pay for Hasbro’s forward earnings.

Accelerating digital gaming revenues and strategic brand collaborations are broadening Hasbro's market reach and creating high-margin, recurring income streams.
Enhanced operational efficiency and a focus on strong franchise IP are driving margin expansion, revenue diversification, and more stable long-term earnings.
Heavy reliance on key franchises, digital expansions, and shifting licensing partnerships exposes Hasbro to operational, cost, and growth risks in an evolving and unpredictable market.

Catalysts

About Hasbro

Operates as a toy and game company in the United States, Europe, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, Australia, China, and Hong Kong.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Rapidly growing cross-platform digital gaming and licensing revenue, exemplified by Wizards of the Coast (notably Magic: The Gathering's 23%+ YoY growth and MONOPOLY GO!), is expanding Hasbro's addressable market and recurring high-margin earnings streams, positioning the company to capitalize on the global rise of digital entertainment, which should drive outsized revenue and operating profit growth.
Expansion into new demographic segments, international markets (especially in Japan and broader APAC), and age groups via strategic brand collaborations (Final Fantasy, Spider-Man, Sonic, etc.) for Magic: The Gathering is unlocking new growth channels and merchandise opportunities-supporting both top-line growth and improved revenue diversification.
Heightened demand for nostalgia and collectibles among Millennials/Gen Z and the durability of key franchises (Magic: The Gathering, D&D, Transformers, etc.) are leading to high engagement, strong long-tail sales, and higher average transaction values, supporting ongoing margin expansion and predictable future cash flows.
Cost rationalization, supply chain diversification, and SKU optimization (cutting low-margin or tariff-hit products) post-Entertainment One divestiture are enhancing operational efficiency and offsetting input cost headwinds-expected to structurally improve net margins and EBITDA over the next several years.
Long-term industry consolidation and Hasbro's strengthened position as an IP-driven, multi-channel entertainment company increases pricing power and cross-licensing leverage, which should sustain higher gross margins and reduce volatility in earnings.

Hasbro Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Hasbro's revenue will grow by 4.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -13.4% today to 15.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $773.5 million (and earnings per share of $5.54) by about September 2028, up from $-568.3 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 20.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from -19.5x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Leisure industry at 23.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.52% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.69%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Hasbro Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ongoing reliance on blockbuster franchises like MAGIC: THE GATHERING and large Universes Beyond sets exposes Hasbro to significant franchise concentration risk-if demand falters or franchise fatigue sets in, both revenue growth and earnings could be volatile and unpredictable.
Declining sales and uncertain near-term outlook for Consumer Products, driven by retailer caution, delayed inventory builds, and shifting order patterns, signal sustained challenges in the traditional toy and game business, potentially weighing on total company revenue and profitability.
Persistent exposure to tariffs (with around 50% of US toy and game volume sourced from China and Vietnam) creates continued cost volatility; even with diversification efforts, upcoming tariff headwinds and associated supply chain complications may erode net margins and threaten earnings consistency.
Increasing dependence on licensing partnerships and third-party IP introduces recurring royalty expenses and complex relationships (notably for Wizard's digital and casino gaming initiatives), potentially squeezing net margins-especially if competition for strong licenses intensifies or licensing terms worsen.
Execution risk in digital transformation and large-scale new product launches (such as AAA video games and premium digital storytelling projects) presents the potential for high development costs, mixed critical reception, or slower return on investment, all of which could compress future operating margins and limit Hasbro's revenue diversification.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $88.333 for Hasbro based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $4.9 billion, earnings will come to $773.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 20.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.7%.
Given the current share price of $79.03, the analyst price target of $88.33 is 10.5% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Gaming And Digital Expansion Will Drive Shareholder Value In The Coming Years