Everyone Owns a Ninja. That Doesn't Make It Cheap.

SharkNinja makes products people genuinely seem to love . My brother-in-law hasn't stopped talking about his Ninja coffee machine. Every gym-goer seems to own a Ninja ice cream maker churning out protein ice cream. And don't get me started on how everyone now owns an air fryer. This is a brand that has quietly embedded itself into daily life and that kind of word-of-mouth loyalty is genuinely hard to manufacture.

Twelve straight quarters of double-digit growth tells you this isn't a fluke. They keep launching products people actually want, they're pushing into new markets globally, and the more people buy direct from Shark and Ninja's own sites rather than through retailers such as Myer and Good Guys, the more margin they get to keep. That flywheel is only going to get stronger as the brand grows.

That said, it's not all smooth sailing. People are watching their spending right now; cost of living is real and it's not going away anytime soon. Tariffs are also eating into margins and there's no quick fix there either. Growth is slowing, which is fine for a business this size, but it does mean you can't just assume the last few years repeat themselves.

My view assumes revenue growth moderating gradually from 12% today toward 6% by 2030, net margins improving modestly to 11% as direct to consumer scale offsets tariff pressure, and a 21x future earnings multiple which is above the appliance industry average, but below what pure-growth investors are currently paying. At a 9% discount rate, that gives a fair value of US$110.73, below today's price of around $123.

SharkNinja is a quality compounder worth owning at the right price. Right now, the market is paying for a slightly more optimistic outcome than the evidence supports. The gadgets are great. Bought in below fair value and happy to hold. Adding more at $122 though? That's a different question.