Why I think Iovance is undervalued

In my opinion, Iovance is one of those biotech companies where the market is still focused on what went wrong in the past instead of what could happen over the next few years. After a disappointing commercial launch in 2025, many investors lost confidence and the share price fell sharply. However, I believe the company today is much stronger than the market gives it credit for.

The biggest difference is that Iovance is no longer waiting for its first product to be approved. Amtagvi is already approved in the United States and is the first TIL (tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte) therapy available for patients with advanced melanoma. That means the company has moved beyond the biggest hurdle that many biotech companies never overcome. The focus is now on growing sales rather than proving the science works.

What gives me confidence is that the commercial business appears to be improving. The number of treatment centers continues to increase, more doctors are referring patients, manufacturing has become faster and more efficient, and the company expects strong revenue growth this year. Management forecasts total product revenue of $350–370 million in 2026, with demand continuing to accelerate.

I also think many investors underestimate the long-term potential of the technology. Today, Amtagvi is approved for one type of skin cancer, but Iovance is studying the same TIL platform in several other difficult-to-treat cancers, including lung cancer, sarcoma and endometrial cancer. If even one or two of these studies are successful, the commercial opportunity could become much larger than what the market is currently pricing in.

I also believe Iovance could eventually become an attractive acquisition target. Large pharmaceutical companies are looking for innovative cancer treatments that can drive future growth, especially as many blockbuster drugs lose patent protection over the coming years. Iovance has something that is difficult to replicate: the first approved TIL therapy, manufacturing expertise built over many years, and a platform that could be expanded into several major cancers. A larger pharmaceutical company could use its global commercial network and manufacturing experience to unlock even more value from the business.

The Commercial opportunity

Today, the market capitalization is only around $2 billion, despite Iovance already having an FDA-approved product and guidance for hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue this year.

If management executes as planned, I don't think the company should trade like an early-stage biotech anymore. Companies with approved oncology products and visible growth often trade at 4–6× forward sales.

Assuming revenue reaches around $500–700 million over the next few years, a valuation of $3.5–5.5 billion does not seem unreasonable. With roughly 450 million shares outstanding, that translates to approximately $15–18 per share.

If the company successfully expands into:

• lung cancer,
• earlier lines of melanoma,
• combination therapies with checkpoint inhibitors,
• and eventually other solid tumors,

then the addressable market becomes several times larger than today.

In that scenario, annual revenue could eventually exceed $2 billion, and companies with innovative oncology franchises have historically traded at enterprise values of $10–15 billion. That would support a share price in the $25–35 range, even before considering acquisition interest.

The takeover angle

This is where I think many investors are too conservative.

Large pharmaceutical companies, including those facing major patent expirations later this decade, need innovative oncology assets. Iovance offers:

• the first approved TIL therapy,
• years of manufacturing expertise that would be difficult to replicate,
• an expanding treatment-center network,
• and a platform that could be applied to multiple solid tumors.

Building a competing TIL platform from scratch could take many years and significant investment. Acquiring Iovance could be a faster and less risky path for a large pharmaceutical company seeking a leadership position in cell therapy.

For that reason, I would not be surprised if an eventual acquisition valued the company at $12–20 billion, implying roughly $30–45 per share, particularly if commercial momentum continues and additional clinical data are positive.